After the crude oil rate cut frenzy, the mystery of gold's stagflation: is it time to withdraw or wash the positions?
The diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine to end the war have become a key factor in suppressing WTI crude oil prices, with recent oil prices slightly declining; meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims report to be released Thursday evening, as this data could further stir short-term fluctuations in oil prices.
The recent rebound in oil prices will still be suppressed, and the market is more likely to show repeated fluctuations, continuing to operate weakly.
Recommendation for crude oil: 58.10, 58.40 area short, target around 57.00!
On December 12th, Beijing time, gold prices rose. After a significant decline during the Thanksgiving holiday, the number of initial jobless claims in Country M recorded the largest weekly increase since the outbreak of the pandemic.
After the data was released, spot gold suddenly surged by $80, reaching a daily high of $4285.75 per ounce!
Currently, there has been a "inverted hammer" candlestick pattern indicating a pullback after a spike, which is a typical sign of "lack of upward momentum." It suggests that buyers are unable to push prices higher, so do not blindly chase long positions, or you will only face defeat!
Recommendation for gold: short in the range of 4277 to 4287, with a target around 4180!
The short position on crude oil at 58.80 during the midday layout has arrived as expected, dropping to the 57.00 line, capturing a space of 180 points intraday, very nice!
Simply put: The international oil prices have been declining these past few days because the oil produced in the U.S. is increasing, and inventory is also rising. Everyone thinks that the supply of oil is going to exceed demand. Moreover, the oil prices have tried several times to rise or fall but have not succeeded; currently, the trend is still towards a decline.
Therefore, the suggestion is: when the oil price reaches the range of 58.70 to 58.90, take a 'bearish' position, aiming to exit when it drops to around 57.50.
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut
On December 11 at midnight Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Federal Reserve has been adjusting towards a neutral interest rate and is currently at the upper end of the neutral rate range, with no decision made regarding January matters.
The labor market seems to be gradually cooling down, and inflation levels remain high. The Federal Reserve is committed to achieving a 2% inflation target. If no new tariffs are announced, commodity inflation should peak in the first quarter of next year. Currently, raising interest rates is not a baseline expectation for anyone, and the current policy divergence lies in whether to maintain the interest rate or cut it.
Gold quickly rebounded after hitting a low point at 4182, forming a clear V-shaped reversal pattern. Currently, the J-line is approaching the 100 overbought zone, while the K-line and D-line are moving upwards in sync but with a slowing slope, indicating that while short-term bullish momentum still exists, the risk of a pullback due to overbought conditions is increasing, requiring vigilance against minor corrections at high levels.
Recommended Gold: Short on a rebound to the 4245-4255 area, targeting around 4180.
12.10 Gold Morning Review: Stalemate on the Eve of the Decision, Waiting for Breakthrough Signals in Range
Today, the market is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Gold is exhibiting a typical cautious fluctuation pattern before major risk events, with prices continuing to narrow around key ranges. Before clear directional breakthrough signals appear, the optimal trading strategy remains to sell high and buy low within the range, while being wary of sudden market movements following the convergence of fluctuations before the event.
Today's opening price performance is relatively weak, although it has temporarily stabilized above the 4200 mark. However, from a recent trend perspective, the support at this level is not unbreakable, and both bulls and bears lack clear momentum, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
Gold Suggestion: It is recommended to lay out short positions in the 4215-4225 range, targeting around 4170. During operations, closely monitor changes in market sentiment before the Federal Reserve decision and adjust stop-loss orders in a timely manner to control risks.
There are no dynamic days, it's just picking up gold. Mr. Li from Shanghai started with 60,000 dollars in just ten days, with no defeats,
and has steadily increased to over 67,300 dollars. When the market arrives, if you are still watching, you will only miss opportunity after opportunity!