宇辰zx

Yuchen Midday Analysis
The Bitcoin four-hour trend shows significant oscillation and accumulation characteristics, with unilateral driving momentum gradually strengthening.
The EMA trend indicator is in a contracting state, with EMA120 forming resistance at 91450 and EMA15 providing short-term support at 90460; the MACD volume strength is insufficient, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that momentum has increased.

The Ethereum four-hour trend shows a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, indicating continuity for the bulls.
The MACD displays a continuous volume increase, with the DIF and DEA forming a golden cross and expanding upwards, signaling bullish momentum. At the same time, the EMA trend indicator continues to contract upwards. Previously, the K-line has continuously stabilized above the EMA15 trend line at 3050, laying the foundation for an upward stretch towards resistance levels.
Operational Recommendations
For Bitcoin, go long around 89700-90000, targeting 90800-91400.
For Ethereum, go long around 3080-3100, targeting 3160-3200.
#ETH走势分析 #美联储重启降息步伐

U.S. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Trump will announce a lot of good economic news #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐

Data and structure resonance, steady accumulation of Bitcoin on the chain, daily channel determines short-term direction｜Intraday three-level deduction👎👎👎

Bitcoin's weekly chart confirms the oscillation tone with a bullish closing, and the price currently operates within a clear upward channel. The key is that, despite the recent weak performance, on-chain data shows that the exchange inventory continues to decrease, indicating that investors are steadily buying on dips, with no panic selling occurring. The daily line is currently near the middle track of the channel, and the golden cross state of MACD and RSI provides technical momentum for the rebound. The core resistance above focuses on the 93500-94000 area (where the descending trend line overlaps with previous highs), and effectively breaking through this point is key to reversing the weakness. The lower channel support at 87000 is a defense line that the short-term bulls must hold; failure to do so poses a risk of damaging the upward structure.

At the four-hour level, the short-term structure shows a pattern of oscillating upward, with the price operating within the channel. Currently, it is closely aligned with the middle track near 91000, which is a point for observing short-term strength and weakness. There are two typical paths for subsequent development: the upward path: if it can break through the neckline of the W bottom near 94000 with increased volume (overlapping with the upper track of the channel), it is expected to open up upward space, with a theoretical target that can be seen at around 103000, which is the pressure level of the previous consolidation platform; the downward path: if it cannot break through the neckline resistance and instead falls below the lower track support at 87000, it may evolve into a downward flag structure, starting a new round of correction.

Intraday operation suggestions:
Short position near 88500-87500, target 91500-92000
Short position near 93200-94000, target 92000-91500
#币圈 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

Cryptocurrency Fluctuations: Regulatory Crackdown on Stablecoins Sparks Heated Debate, AI + Crypto May Be the Key to Breaking the Deadlock

The central bank has clearly stated that stablecoins fall under virtual currencies and are classified as illegal financial activities, directly pointing to risks of money laundering and illegal cross-border transfers. However, current regulatory measures such as card freezes, account freezes, and reporting limits are seen by the cryptocurrency community as 'treating the symptoms rather than the disease,' failing to address the core issues.

There are also rumors of launching a 'national sovereign stablecoin,' but the approach of enforcing it has been met with skepticism. The core logic of the cryptocurrency community lies in 'consensus,' and the value of stablecoins cannot be forcibly obtained—successes of sovereign stablecoins in Singapore and Indonesia stem from their practical value in efficient and low-cost cross-border payments. Forced promotion lacks a foundation among the masses, which could lead to capital outflows and inadvertently inject momentum into the cryptocurrency market, unexpectedly igniting a bull market.

Traditional banks are mired in anxiety, but their competitors are not DeFi; rather, it is their own high fees and slow transfer pain points under monopolistic conditions. The Ethereum ecosystem showcases free innovation, with cross-border transactions settling in 10 minutes, a few yuan in fees, and DeFi yields far exceeding those of traditional bank deposits, precisely aligning with the capital's pursuit of efficiency and freedom—this trend is irreversible.

In the long run, 'No AI, No Entrepreneurship' has become the norm, and in the future, 99% of new assets will carry AI genes, while 'Crypto + AI' is undoubtedly the next super trend. The core of regulation should be 'to ease' rather than 'to block'; hardline approaches will only backfire—after all, true value has always been constructed from bottom-up consensus rather than being forcibly imposed. What do you think? #BitcoinChain[super topic]##BitcoinDigitalCurrency[super topic]##CryptocurrencyCommunity##Blockchain##币安HODLer空投AT #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析

Yuchen's Midday Analysis
Currently near ETH2815, Ethereum has experienced a significant drop after reaching the high range of 3040–3060, sharply breaking through multiple supports (mid track, lower track, MA), with a minimum reaching around 2805. The price is currently stabilizing in the range of 2800–2830, showing signs of an oversold stop. Market rhythm: rapid sell-off, lower track halting decline, in the process of elastic recovery.

BOLL: Upper track at 3137, mid track at 2975, lower track at 2814; the Bollinger Bands are rapidly opening downwards, indicating high volatility, with the market just experiencing a "volume kill-off." The current price is close to the lower track, showing a short-term oversold state. If 2800 can stabilize, there will be a need for a rebound repair; if it breaks below 2810 and continues to increase in volume, it may test the previous low range (2750–2720). The short-term drop has reached the lower Bollinger Band, with rebound expectations, but the overall trend remains bearish.
MACD: DIF: -48.50 DEA: -25.52 Histogram: red turning green, with a significant downward volume increase. The MACD double line is sharply declining and continues to increase in volume, with strong release of bearish energy; currently, the histogram shows signs of shortening, indicating that the downward momentum is beginning to wane. If the subsequent green histogram continues to shorten, a bottom golden cross signal may form. Bears dominate, but the energy release is nearing its end.
Operation Suggestions
Entry Point: 2880 – 2910, resistance encountered on rebound
Target: 2830-2790
Stop Loss Position: If volume breaks through 2935, consider stopping loss and exiting.

After a sharp drop in ETH, it has entered a repair phase,
with limited rebound space, the main strategy remains "dominantly short on rebounds, with short buys as support."
Key Range: 2790–2910, quick in and out is advisable. #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析

Yuchen Morning Big Cake Second Cake Market Analysis
The big cake market continues to maintain a steady upward rhythm, with a clear high-level consolidation pattern! The core benchmark for judging trend strength: continuous breakthroughs of high points + gradual elevation of low points, the current trend completely fits the characteristics of a strong pattern. Any pullback during this period is a healthy technical correction, definitely not a signal for trend reversal, so there's no need for excessive panic!
The technical aspects show clear bullish signals: after the four-hour level 'two bearish engulfing followed by one bullish engulfing', the price steadily rises along the short-term moving average, with trading volume continuously releasing in a mild accumulation; the MACD golden cross below the zero line continues to diverge upwards, with the fast and slow lines widening, bullish momentum fully dominating the market, and the upward trend's certainty is increasing!
Big Cake Suggestion: around 90500-90000
Target to first look at 93200 breaking above looks at 96000
Second Cake Suggestion: around 2980-2940 #加密市场反弹 $
Target to first look at 3100 breaking above looks at 3250$ETH $BTC #ETH走势分析

Evening Market Update
Bitcoin and Ethereum's four-hour performance has really impressed me with a strong breakout! The volume has been solid, and there's no doubt about it; the one-sided upward movement led by the bulls has stabilized! Looking at the one-hour chart, although it started to grind a bit with small fluctuations after hitting the upper Bollinger Band, this is just building momentum! Moreover, the middle band continues to rise steadily, providing strong support; the overall stair-step upward structure hasn't broken down at all. Any pullbacks are just opportunities, so let's be patient and wait for the right moment to enter, as the momentum for reaching the target will definitely be strong! Let's look forward to the explosive power of this upward movement!
Trading Suggestions:
BTC: Around 90500-91000, it can be entered, target 93000
ETH: Enter around 2970-3000, target 3100#加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析

I used to think that trading cryptocurrencies relied on various advanced technical analyses: such as candlestick patterns, MACD golden cross, and Elliott Wave Theory... I would stare at the charts every day, acting like a scientist. And the result? Three major losses, several heavy losses, and I almost got drained by the market.

My logic is quite simple:

First, chase the breakout and don't get attached to fluctuations.

During sideways trading, it's easiest to get harvested; it seems like an opportunity, but it's actually a trap. Now I only trade during breakout markets—when the price breaks out of a range, I decisively enter; if it's a false breakout, I cut my losses immediately; if it's a true breakout, that’s when I make profits!

Second, trade lightly and slowly, and don’t bet on direction.

I never operate with a full position; I only use 20% of my capital each time. If I need to profit, I will; if I need to withdraw, I will. Controlling position size is controlling life. While others trade over ten times a day, I make two trades a week, yet I can still steadily rise.

Third, go with the trend and don't guess the future.

I no longer try to bottom-fish or top-pick, nor do I predict any "reversal points." I follow the market direction as it goes. If it's going up, I go long; if it's going down, I go short; I won't go against the trend—it's that simple.

Later, I realized that making money is never about how smart you are, but how steady you are. In the crypto world, simplicity is the least simple thing #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析 #比特币波动性 .

Powell's core ally Williams has continuously "dove" in statements, leading to a complete reversal of the market's expectations for a rate cut in December——

A week ago, the probability of a rate cut was only 29%, but now it has skyrocketed to 82.9%! The market generally interprets this as Powell's "precise probing" of policy direction, and the data released throughout this week further confirms this expected logic.

J.P. Morgan's latest client survey has revealed a key signal: investors' net long positions in U.S. Treasuries have surged to nearly a 15-year high! This means that in the face of high yields, if the Federal Reserve does not actively lower rates through QE, the chain reaction of arbitrage trades could impact the entire financial system.

As it stands, the Federal Reserve seems to have nowhere to retreat to #加密市场反弹 #美国非农数据超预期 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析

11.27 Morning Analysis of Big Pancake and Second Pancake Market
The big pancake has undergone sufficient adjustments in the previous period, and now the market has gradually stabilized, successfully standing firm in the key support area! The trend has entered a range convergence pattern, and both long and short sides are temporarily in balance, with K-line showing a slight alternating fluctuation. More crucially, the short to medium-term moving averages have turned upwards successively, and the selling pressure has significantly weakened, coupled with trading volume gradually shrinking to a low level, various signals are clearly indicating - the market's bottoming process is basically complete, and a rebound can be expected in the future!
Looking at the second pancake, the four-hour level trend is equally impressive! Prices continue to oscillate and consolidate near the upper Bollinger band, and there are signs of the Bollinger band opening upwards, combined with the rhythm of gradually rising pullback lows, it is not difficult to see that the current plate is still firmly dominated by the leading party, and there is hope for continued breakthroughs and rising in the future～

Big Pancake Suggestion: 89300-90000 near leading
Target first looks at 93000, breakthrough looks at 96200

Second Pancake Suggestion: 3000-2960 near leading
Target first looks at 3120, breakthrough looks at 3260#比特币波动性 #ETH走势分析

11.26 Evening
Suggestion
Big Pancake: 87500-88200 range, Target 85500-83000
Second Pancake: 2940-2990 range, Target 2860-2700
The big pancake has repeatedly tested the 87500-88200 key resistance zone without success, and after several tests, it has failed to form an effective breakthrough, showing signs of declining volume, indicating that selling pressure is concentrated in the upper range, making the probability of a short-term breakthrough in this range extremely low.
From a technical perspective, the 1-hour and 4-hour MACD indicators show a clear head pattern, with the DIF line continuously running below the DEA line, and after confirming the death cross signal, the head momentum gradually continues, indicating that there is further downward space for the price. #Crypto Circle #加密市场反弹 #比特币波动性 #ETH走势分析

Noon Pancake Two Pancake Thoughts:
The current market is in a consolidation phase, rising in the early morning, fluctuating in the Asian and European markets, and building momentum in the US market. The Federal Reserve has not come up with a specific plan for interest rate cuts! There are various opinions in the market, each with its own reasons. In short, manage your positions well, and there are opportunities for short-term entry as long as you watch the positions. Doing good risk control is not wrong!

Pancake
The entire market is in a bullish trend in the short cycle, with EMA moving averages showing a bullish arrangement. The daily MACD shows a bullish compression, forming a clear bullish resonance. However, due to low trading volume, there is a divergence between price and volume. The short-term oscillation pattern will still be maintained. As long as it does not break 86100 during the 1-2 hour period, small-scale rebounds will continue, and one can try light positions at 88200.

Around the 8610-8650 range, the target is to break through 8820-8920 to look up at 9300.

Two Pancakes
The performance of the second pancake is a bit stronger than the first pancake. In the evening, it almost touched the 3000 mark on the rise. During the day, pay attention to the pullback at 2873. As long as it does not break down, the bullish pattern remains, and pay attention to the 3056 position.

Around the 2898-2920 range, the target is to break through 2987-3056 to look up at 3115#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 .

11.26 Morning Silk Road

The popular candidates for the new chair of the Federal Reserve tend to favor interest rate cuts, coupled with weakening employment and retail data, along with some progress in the U.S.-Russia peace agreement. The overall sentiment is—mixed messages stirring together, with the market leaning towards volatility.

This wave of Bitcoin's rebound touched around 88400 and was pressed back down. The daily line remains below the middle track, with no substantial change in trend; the rebound volume at the 4-hour level is very weak, and the KDJ is still in a high position and is becoming dulled, indicating that the bears still have stronger control;

Overall, it looks like a "weak rebound + bearish volatility" structure right now, with heavy pressure above. Any rebound is basically an opportunity for bears to enter or increase their positions.

Personal recommendation
Bitcoin: South down in the range of 88000-88800, targeting 86000, 85000, and if it breaks down, looking at 83000
Ethereum: South down in the range of 2980-3020, targeting 2850, 2800, and if it breaks down, looking at 2700
#比特币波动性 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

The Fed's dovish stance overwhelms the hawks, with rate cut expectations soaring to 80% within days.

The current sharp fluctuations in the market perfectly illustrate how the high uncertainty of the Fed's policy path has become central to the pricing of all risk assets. The market's probability forecast for a rate cut in December skyrocketed from 30% to 80% in just a few weeks, only to be sharply adjusted again due to data gaps and officials' speeches. This volatility itself is a typical characteristic driven by liquidity expectations.

The key is that the core driving the shift in expectations is not a single piece of data, but rather a narrative competition in a fragmented information environment. The employment data delayed in September was mixed, but Williams' statement on "recent rate cuts" was immediately interpreted by the market as a signal of a dovish victory. This overreaction to officials' remarks indicates that in the absence of official data, the market can only rely on policy signals as anchor points.

On a deeper level, the internal divisions within the Fed have never truly been resolved. In October's meeting, two votes opposed the resolution (Milan called for a 50 basis point cut, while Schmidt advocated for holding steady), and this division has been amplified during the data vacuum. The concentrated voices of dovish officials can indeed temporarily increase rate cut expectations, but the hawks' concerns about the resilience of inflation risks still exist, which means that any unexpected rebound in economic data could once again reverse expectations.

For the crypto market, such swings in expectations are directly related to the opening and closing of the dollar liquidity tap. The entire process from the price drop 📉 to discrepancies in institutional target prices is essentially a betting game on "when and to what extent the Fed will cut rates." When rate cut expectations heat up, risk assets immediately get a breather; when ADP data suggests strong employment, tightening liquidity expectations trigger sell-offs. This high sensitivity indicates that the crypto market has become a barometer of global liquidity expectations.

Currently, the market has fallen into a typical "data dependence" dilemma: lacking sufficient data to verify economic conditions while overinterpreting scattered information. This means that any unexpected data (whether strong or weak) could trigger market fluctuations far beyond usual levels. For us, the key is not to predict the Fed's actions, but to manage the liquidity risks brought about by sudden changes in expectations. #比特币波动性 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察

What should I do if my girlfriend suddenly raises the betrothal gift from 150,000 to 300,000?

Step 1: Release good news to stabilize emotions and agree to give a betrothal gift of 300,000.

Step 2: Inject funds to create a favorable atmosphere, plan the wedding normally, and book the hotel.

Step 3: Continuously release positive information to confirm the wedding news with all of the woman's relatives and friends.

Step 4: Short sell. After all matters are confirmed, inform the woman that only 100,000 can be provided as the betrothal gift.

Step 5: Trap the woman. If she feels embarrassed, she can only go through with the marriage.

Conclusion: The woman gives in and tells all her relatives and friends about her regret of canceling the marriage. If it drops to 100,000, profits can be taken and the position can be closed.
#加密市场反弹 #美国非农数据超预期 #比特币波动性 #ETH巨鲸增持 #加密市场观察

Most people in this cycle have not experienced the last round of altcoin bull markets, or some old-timers have already forgotten the last round of altcoin strategies.

If you have time, go and pull up all the altcoin charts from the last round and see how many survived to this round.

What you see is that more altcoins have dropped from the highs of 2020-2021, falling all the way to November 2025. Even if they experienced 1-2 stages in between, overall they have dropped by a factor of 10 to 100 or more.

This space is what is called ‘deflation,’ and the highs back then were the ‘bubble’ peaks.

You only see the drop but forget about the altcoins at that time. Most of them only had a market value of a few million to tens of millions, rising from low to high, from being worthless to being considered valuable.

For example, DENT, which was launched in 2019, hit a low of 0.000065. The first round was relatively stable; in between it was either a crash or a shakeout until the second round when it rebounded again, rising to 0.022 in just three months, an increase of 338 times, then it began a four-year decline, dropping to a low of 0.00018 last month.

When have you seen so many altcoins on the BN? Even if they are on the main board, they only have a market cap of 10 to 20 million. Some altcoins raised tens of millions or even over a hundred million dollars, and their prices have fallen below the issue price. Going in now is equivalent to being lower than the institutional price, which was unimaginable before.

So will they go to zero? Do they have value? Once you understand this point, you will know what to do next.

Many people are talking about the bear market. If you want to talk about a bear market, just say altcoin bear market. The altcoin drops over the past few years, conversely, I don’t think it’s a bad thing; rather, it’s a good thing that prevents institutions from creating high market values and brings altcoins back to their rightful value system, laying the foundation for future ‘bubbles.’

Remember, the altcoin ‘bubble’ will definitely come at a time when no one expects it, and when most people wake up, they will, like the last cycle, become those who catch the bubble. #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析 #比特币波动性 #香港稳定币新规 #加密市场观察

The market has always been fair; profits ultimately vary from person to person; the core cause of trading is mindset. Don't let the impulse to chase highs and cut losses, or the obsession with holding against the trend, sway your rationality. Only by stabilizing your mindset, stepping accurately with market rhythm, and maintaining clear judgment can you stand firm in volatile markets and seize real profit opportunities. The midnight market continues its downward trend, and bears are gaining strength again. Bitcoin is testing the support line around 86100 again, while Ethereum follows the same upward and downward trend, with a minimum pullback to the 2870 line.

Currently, the market shows a weak rebound repair trend, with overall upward momentum insufficient and continuity weak. From the four-hour perspective, the previous five consecutive downward candles touched the mid-band of the Bollinger Bands and triggered a rebound, but the mid-band's suppression effect is gradually becoming evident. The current rebound strength is diminishing, and the continuity of upward movement is lacking; after a short-term rebound, the bearish pattern is likely to return. On the hourly level, there is a back-and-forth tug-of-war between bulls and bears, overall presenting a test-bottom pattern. After multiple tests of the support line around 86000, each is accompanied by a rebound repair, indicating that bears are still accumulating strength. Therefore, the market needs to complete the rebound repair process. Thus, the layout idea for the morning is clear: arrange short positions around the high point of the midnight rebound, aiming to test the key support line downward.

Bitcoin short in the range of 87700-88000, target 86000
Ethereum short in the range of 2980-3010, target 2850

Tonight at 9:30 PM, the U.S. economic data will be released in a series of three, and the market is in for a rollercoaster ride.
Everyone, fasten your seatbelts, as these three pieces of data could directly determine the outlook for U.S. stocks tonight, and even influence the Federal Reserve's next moves.
The first to be announced is the September retail sales month-on-month rate, with the market expecting a growth of 0.6%, which is a bit better than last month's 0.4%. In simple terms, this reflects how generous American consumers are in their spending, directly indicating the heat of the consumer market.
If the actual data exceeds expectations significantly, inflation pressure will be back, and the Federal Reserve may have to delay interest rate cuts further.
Next up is the September PPI data, which is the Producer Price Index, viewed on both annual and monthly rates. The annual rate is expected to be 2.6%, slightly down from the previous value of 2.7%, while the monthly rate is expected to decline by 0.1%, with the previous value having increased by 0.3%.
PPI can be seen as a leading indicator for CPI, measuring changes in factory gate prices. If factory prices do not increase or even start to drop, the inflation pressure transmitted to consumers will naturally be less. #Crypto
Therefore, if tonight's PPI data, especially the monthly rate, truly turns negative as expected, the market's concerns about inflation may ease a bit.
To summarize the key points: the retail sales data will indicate the strength of consumer resilience, while the PPI data will show whether inflation pressure is easing.
If retail data is significantly stronger than expected, but PPI does not drop much, the combination of "high inflation + strong economy" may make the market worry again that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a longer time, which is not good news for risk assets. #Blockchain##Blockchain[Super Topic]#
Conversely, if retail data is average and PPI shows a clear cooling, then the script of "moderate economy + falling inflation" may rekindle the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.
In short, at 9:30 PM tonight, keep a close eye on the screen, as even minor changes in these numbers can stir up a storm in the market.
#美国零售数据 #比特币波动性 #美联储重启降息步伐

Anyone who has been in the cryptocurrency space for a full cycle should be quite clear that there will always be ups and downs.

The drops make people panic sell, and the rises make people chase higher prices, all of which are part of the learning process.

Do you know where the bottom is? Do you know how high it can go?

Since that's the case, now that it's dropped, what should you do?

Enjoy life, relax! Patiently wait for the next wave of market movement to appear.

When the market is bad, minimize your actions, learn more; if you don't lose money, you've already beaten 90% of people. What if you lose it all?

Go big or go home! Quickly accumulate your capital; instead of scrolling social media, go work extra jobs or deliver more takeout.

Otherwise, when the next wave of the market comes, you'll just be watching. When others have eaten their fill, you foolishly take out loans to jump in…
Follow Yuchen to maximize your profits and minimize your losses #加密市场回调 #ETH巨鲸增持 #比特币波动性 #ETH走势分析

Yuchan Evening Analysis
The big coin is currently at 87444, with an intraday fluctuation range of 85226-89177. The 15-minute K-line shows a consolidation bottoming characteristic; after breaking below 87000, it quickly rebounded, indicating that there is short-term buying support in the 86000-87000 range;
However, from the K-line pattern, the rebound strength is relatively weak, and it is in the "weak repair" stage of the previous downtrend. In the short term, it is highly likely to maintain a fluctuation range of 85000-89000.
Yuchan's trading suggestions:
The big coin can be shorted around 87800-88500, with a target looking towards 86000-86500.
The secondary coin can be shorted around 2900-2930, with a target looking towards 2850-2800#加密市场回调 #比特币波动性 #ETH走势分析 #美联储重启降息步伐