比特研

大饼已跌破9万美元关口，新一轮4小时级别下跌正式开启，昨日预期的95000-96000区间并未到达，日内若有小反弹将是寻找高空机会的窗口。以太坊走势基本跟随，预计会有一段15分钟级别的反弹进行技术修复，关键观察点在于价格能否有效收回3250美元上方以暂缓跌势。市场短期结构转弱，操作上应转为反弹做空思路。

美联储如期降息25基点，但鲍威尔鹰派发言强调“降低明年降息概率”，导致市场对后续流动性宽松幅度的担忧升温，利好兑现效果不及预期。

At this stage, it is determined that the main market is a consolidation trend. This view is approximately valid for a period of around 15 days; unless there is a breakout above the channel, I will not be bullish. When given the upper and lower boundary lines, I will consider positioning for both long and short. Once this channel is broken, the 7W6 big pie will be seen very quickly. The overall direction has not been wrong so far.

大饼预计白天整体波动依旧不大。参考支撑位置咱们考虑放至90000-91500关口一带，这个位置是强支撑，也是昨晚这一波上涨的起涨点！参考压力位置的话在94500-95500附近，这里是昨晚冲高回落的低点位置也是跌破后支撑、压力转换的地方。波动主要还是在夜里出现，兄弟们白天保持耐心即可！

From a macro perspective, let's analyze the current market:

The current Bitcoin weekly chart has officially entered a downtrend. The recent rise we are seeing is merely a super-recovery from overselling on a weekly level; the monthly MACD has already formed a high-level death cross, and the daily chart also maintains a downward structure. This weak structure of multi-period resonance determines that: ➡ The direction is still down, and the rebound is just a rhythm, not a trend.

The most critical resistance zone above is between 97000 - 102000. Before the trend reverses, this will be strong pressure stacked upon strong pressure. The market won't drop precipitously, but the trend will follow its course, so we must patiently wait for the time window that belongs to the bears.

On the macro front, there are three key time points in December that will almost certainly influence the rhythm of the entire market in the next three weeks. Here’s a summary of the key points:
① December 11: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
The market originally expected no rate cuts in December, but recently the winds have shifted— the probability of a rate cut has soared to 87%.
Once the interest rate expectations change direction, market volatility won't be small.
Will the positive expectations be realized ahead of time? Or will there be a reversal after the announcement? This is the first risk point.
② December 19: Bank of Japan interest rate decision
The original plan was “no rate hike,” but the comments from the Bank of Japan governor on Monday were shocking: suggesting that there is a high probability of a rate hike on December 19.
The reverse change in BOJ policy has a huge impact:
Rate hike = Funds flowing back to Japan
Risk assets under pressure
USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuations will ripple through global liquidity
This is the second major uncertainty.
③ December 26: BTC annual massive options expiration
This is the most important expiration date of the year: Q4 end + the last expiration window of the year = massive expiration stacking. The nominal value reaches—230 billion.

How to interpret the options data?
The current maximum pain position: 100000
PUT maximum peak: 84k

This means:
➡ In December, for Bitcoin to break above and stabilize at 100,000, the difficulty is extremely high
➡ 84k is the main defense line for institutions; the rapid pullback after dropping below 84 in recent days is likely the result of “bear protection” efforts.

In summary, the technical downtrend is clear; three major macro pressures loom large. December will be a month full of misaligned expectations and high volatility; the key for the market is not the direction, but the rhythm!

Achieving a seven-figure annual income in the cryptocurrency world is simple. The initial investment requires compound interest, using 80% of the time to wait, 19% of the time to research, and 1% of the time to press the buy button. Miracles do not happen in the cryptocurrency world; only discipline and methods can lead to profits.

The market this weekend is really bad, the 1-hour level is like a horizontal line. Tomorrow is Monday, and there's a high probability of a pullback, first targeting around 87000, which remains to be seen. Since October, our approach has always been to sell high. Following my brother's short position has made a lot of profit. With interest rate cuts approaching in 4 days, it should be 25 basis points. Once the results are out, good news will turn into bad news, and we can expect another drop. So, the bulls should be cautious, and I also advise friends holding spot to sell high, without holding onto any illusions. The bear market will continue next year, and a small bull market won't recover until the year after. In the short term, focus on high shorts for Bitcoin contracts!

周末行情分析：

凌晨行情下探88000后回弹至89000震荡整理：日线缩量连阴、趋势偏空，4小时空头增量贴下轨运行，1小时线小幅震荡。周末震荡行情，基本不会出方向，下周一延续下跌的概率大，周末高抛低吸即可，明天晚上或者后天早上建议高空为主！

周六日操作建议：
大饼91000附近做空，防守92200，目标看88000附近。
以太3100附近做空，防守3160，目标看2960附近。

大饼当前围绕 9.1万至 9.5 万美元关键区域的多空博弈正在上演。Coinglass 数据揭示了这场棋局的凶险：向上突破 9.5万美元，空头将面临近6亿美元的清算打击；向下跌破9.1万美元，则可能点燃一颗规模近10亿美元的多头清算炸弹。值得注意的是，下方潜在的多头清算强度远超上方空头，这为当前高位的博弈增添了一份微妙的不确定性。所以就从目前的数据来看，做多的风险大于做空的风险，切勿盲目追多！

川普才是真正的K线画线师，昨晚在利好刺激下直接又重新暴力拉回了上周的最高点93900附近。这里如果被突破，反弹的高点就要往上移4000点左右。94000突破后短线走势就会稍微偏多，上方压力位就会转为短空对待，短线交易策略就要转为逢低做多为主。今天盘面强势了很多，4小时级别都已经走强，说明机构资金在信息面前已经暗度陈仓，这轮走势在川普上台后受其掌控太强。

12.10美联储议息会议到12.19日本议息会议这一周波动也可能较大。

BTC:89200至88800重新转为较强支撑，这里不跌破，高点就会上移到96000-97000

ETH：2936至2880重新转为较强支撑，这里不跌破，高点上移到3220至3270

Bitcoin has rebounded after a downward movement on the 4-hour chart, entering a short-term correction period. Bulls have regained some ground, but the Bollinger Bands continue to open downward, with significant characteristics of a bearish main trend. On the 1-hour chart, the market rebounded to encounter resistance below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Although the moving averages show an upward divergence, indicators have already shown signs of a pullback. The larger bearish trend remains unchanged, and the probability of a retest of the lower support after the rebound is relatively high. Pay attention to the strength of Bitcoin's rebound, and wait for the exhaustion of bullish momentum or clear signals of pressure to look for opportunities to establish short positions!

Trading Suggestions:
Short Bitcoin in the 96000-97000 range, targeting around 90500.
Short Ethereum in the 3220-3270 range, targeting around 3000.

Currently, all rebounds are preparing for a pullback. The bitcoin will ultimately drop below $80,000, reaching around $75,000, or even $63,000, with the final bottom seen around $45,000 to $50,000.

Yesterday, bitcoin rebounded in 12 hours and temporarily faced resistance at 89598, which is observed at the secondary level 24 line. According to the analysis, it also belongs to the lower bound of the central axis, making today suitable for short positions around 89598.

Currently, there is a demand for returning to the zero axis at the 1-hour level, with high empty spaces. If there is no extreme downturn, it will still push up a bit in the next two days.

The pancake failed to break through the upper resistance level in the early morning, and after a brief rebound in the morning, it quickly turned into a correction trend. The technical indicators show that although the MACD is exhibiting a volume expansion trend, it is still overall in a bearish downward structure, with limited rebound strength, and the logic for short positions remains unchanged. A short position can be laid out at 88800, targeting around 83000!

The liquidity this weekend is really not fun, with Bitcoin fluctuating less than a thousand points up and down, the top pressure has not broken through and the bottom support has not been broken either. The trading idea is still based on yesterday's perspective, the daily rebound pattern is still in place. If it dips into the 89000-88000 range, it can be the last opportunity to bet on a long position. If there is no dip, just wait for the 4-hour closing line to confirm the breakthrough of 91000 for another chance to rebound and rise, with a target of 94000-96000.

Ethereum has dipped a little, but it hasn't reached the 2930-2880 range yet. This range serves as daily defensive support, and since the daily rebound pattern has not broken, if it dips into this range, it can be the last attempt for a long position. Manage your position well, with the upper rebound pressure at 3020, at least a 4-hour level closing above this pressure, and the market may have another chance to rise and rebound, with target pressure at 3100-3150.

The next three major certainty opportunities ignite the short-term market

1. Liquidity "fresh water" is coming: The U.S. Treasury's TGA account is entering a liquidity replenishment mode, and it is expected that around $300 billion will gradually be injected into the market over the next 3-6 weeks, laying the financial foundation for the market 📈.

2. Interest rate cut expectations continue to rise: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on December 10 has become the market focus. Polymarket data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut that month has soared to 87%, and market funds are preparing in advance, speculating on the positive effects after the rate cut.

3. Federal Reserve policy shift to support: Starting from December 1, the Federal Reserve officially stopped reducing its balance sheet and clearly stated that a new round of Treasury bond purchases will begin in January, alleviating liquidity pressure in the market through technical operations, adding another layer of assurance for the short-term market.

Window of opportunity and risk hints:
With the recent geopolitical situation stabilizing and external market volatility easing, this brief market window can be considered a "sweet moment," and the profit-making effect is worth looking forward to.
However, it is important to be cautious; after the interest rate cut on December 10, until the eve of Christmas, has historically been a "seasonal tight period" for market liquidity—institutional funds return, trading activity decreases, which is likely to trigger a market reversal.
For investors, this phase may be the best time to lock in profits and take cash off the table; do not be greedy and linger on the battlefield!

The recent rebound of Bitcoin has nearly ended, with a low of 80,600 and a peak around 92,000, approaching a 15% rebound. Many people haven't even realized it before it has already rebounded 15%. The maximum rebound is 20%-25%, which means 96,000-100,000. We are quite satisfied with our long position set at 83,000; after all, the current bear market is about making short-term rebounds rather than following trends. When you make a profit, you should exit, as the goal is to prepare for bottom-fishing in the big cycle next year. Next, we will continue to place orders and wait for transactions. Then we will focus on the rebound! After that, we will start shorting at high points around 96,000-100,000!

11.27 Market Analysis

The daily chart of Bitcoin overall presents a grinding bottom repair pattern, with the candlestick combination forming a choppy structure of small bearish and bullish movements. The price has stabilized above the lower Bollinger Band, and key moving averages are beginning to turn upwards, with bearish volume significantly contracting, indicating that bullish strength is gradually accumulating.

On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, limiting short-term volatility. However, the middle band continues to rise, and the lows of the corrections are gradually getting higher, indicating that the overall rhythm is controlled by bulls, forming a technical structure that is biased towards strong oscillation. Focus on shorting at highs!

Operational Suggestions:
Short Bitcoin at 93100, stop loss at 94600, take profit at 89500
Short Ethereum at 3330, stop loss at 3430, take profit at 2960

The large pancake self-explored the bottom at 80600, and there has not been a continuous downward trend; instead, it has shown a steady upward trend! In the early hours, it surged to the 89100 line, but due to the pressure from previous high levels, it has once again faced resistance and retreated. Currently, the market is fluctuating and has fallen back to around 87400 for consolidation, with both bulls and bears temporarily entering a game of chance.

From the current market structure, the short-term trend still leans towards a bullish dominance. Technical pattern on the 1-hour level: Although the mid-band of the Bollinger Bands has flattened compared to previous periods, indicating that the short-term market has entered a consolidation phase, there has not been a significant increase in bearish volume, suggesting that selling pressure in the market is relatively limited. The current pullback is more of a normal technical correction during the upward process rather than a signal of trend reversal. This is in line with the overall rhythm of gradually strengthening after the previous bottom exploration.

In the short term, operations can continue to maintain a core idea of low bullish positions, but the overall direction is still bearish!

From the 4-hour level of the pancake, a complete stop-loss signal for the bulls has appeared. Currently, it is just a small rebound after hitting the bottom and cannot be considered a reversal yet; a reversal requires standing above 110,000 USD. At present, we are still adjusting near a historically strong support zone. In the short term, I will prioritize looking for short-term buys, and then aim for high shorts above 92,000! $BTC $ETH

Before the recent sharp drop, when you were advised to buy the dip, even now when you are advised to buy the dip, it is either bad advice or a very irresponsible statement. Although Bitcoin's price is indeed much cheaper compared to $120,000, experienced friends should be clear that investment trading should not be based on price alone, but rather on market signals. Up until now, there have been no signs of a bottom in BTC's decline, no signs of support, and no strong bullish indicators. In such circumstances, there are still many analysts casually publishing opinions encouraging buying the dip and averaging down, unaware that such actions are the closest to death. Remember: in such a major drop, without a weekly K-level bottom, do not consider buying the dip, let alone averaging down! It is advisable to directly block those around you who lack risk awareness and only daydream! Investments that do not consider risk ultimately lead to empty returns!

The range of 86000-83000 for the pancake is the phase bottom of this round of decline. There will be a rebound here, expected to rise to 93000. Brothers who are in cash positions can consider laying out some BTC spot. As for the contracts? I only suggest a 3x leverage. Even so, don't get too ambitious; if you earn more than 10%, you can choose to exit, because the main trend is still downward!