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波段玩家

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合约波段玩家与爱好者,定期分享相关内容!推特:@SwingFiend8
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反转量峰(Volume Climax Reversal) 出现“超级量峰 + 针形影线” → 90% 是转折点。 特征: 成交量极端放大(为均量 3–5 倍) 出现长上影(顶部)或长下影(底部) 策略: 顶部量峰 + 上影 → 开空 底部量峰 + 下影 → 开多 这是主力洗完最后一批单的标志,非常准。
反转量峰(Volume Climax Reversal)

出现“超级量峰 + 针形影线” → 90% 是转折点。

特征:

成交量极端放大(为均量 3–5 倍)

出现长上影(顶部)或长下影(底部)

策略:

顶部量峰 + 上影 → 开空

底部量峰 + 下影 → 开多

这是主力洗完最后一批单的标志,非常准。
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Volume Ladder Trend Logic: Increasing volume at each level represents an accelerating trend. Conditions: First wave of upward movement with increased volume Second wave of upward movement with even larger volume Third wave of upward movement continues to exceed the previous two waves → This forms a "volume ladder," indicating a strong trend. Approach: Open long positions at the 2nd or 3rd gradient, with stop-loss set at the pullback low.
Volume Ladder Trend

Logic: Increasing volume at each level represents an accelerating trend.

Conditions:

First wave of upward movement with increased volume

Second wave of upward movement with even larger volume

Third wave of upward movement continues to exceed the previous two waves

→ This forms a "volume ladder," indicating a strong trend.

Approach: Open long positions at the 2nd or 3rd gradient, with stop-loss set at the pullback low.
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Stable price and explosive volume building-following strategy If the price has not significantly increased, but the trading volume suddenly expands to more than twice the usual amount, and the real body of the candle is very small, this is a typical "secret building position". Large funds generally do not raise prices directly, but quietly accumulate in a stable price range. Strategy: Observe the next 2-3 candles; if the volume continues to rise and the price gradually increases, one can go long in advance. Place the stop-loss at the lower edge of the accumulation range.
Stable price and explosive volume building-following strategy

If the price has not significantly increased, but the trading volume suddenly expands to more than twice the usual amount, and the real body of the candle is very small, this is a typical "secret building position". Large funds generally do not raise prices directly, but quietly accumulate in a stable price range. Strategy: Observe the next 2-3 candles; if the volume continues to rise and the price gradually increases, one can go long in advance. Place the stop-loss at the lower edge of the accumulation range.
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Breakthrough Prediction Strategy for Exhaustion of Oscillation Range Volume Price is oscillating within a range, and trading volume is decreasing, which indicates 'energy compression'. Volume shrinkage means both bulls and bears are waiting for direction, and once there is a sudden surge in volume leading to a breakout, it is highly likely to trend. Strategy: do not chase at the moment of breakout, but wait for a pullback to confirm the breakout is valid before positioning accordingly. Key logic: volume shrinkage = accumulation of strength, surge in volume = release. Applicable for the first wave of trend after a breakout in oscillating markets.
Breakthrough Prediction Strategy for Exhaustion of Oscillation Range Volume

Price is oscillating within a range, and trading volume is decreasing, which indicates 'energy compression'. Volume shrinkage means both bulls and bears are waiting for direction, and once there is a sudden surge in volume leading to a breakout, it is highly likely to trend. Strategy: do not chase at the moment of breakout, but wait for a pullback to confirm the breakout is valid before positioning accordingly. Key logic: volume shrinkage = accumulation of strength, surge in volume = release. Applicable for the first wave of trend after a breakout in oscillating markets.
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Accelerated Decline with Increased Volume Short Selling Strategy If the price breaks a key support level and is accompanied by a sharp increase in volume, this is the clearest signal for bears. Especially when it breaks below the daily moving average or structural lows, and the volume expands to more than twice, that signals an accelerated downward trend. Strategy: After breaking support, short on the first weak rebound (with low volume), placing a stop loss above the rebound high of the support. This captures the largest segment of the 'breakout acceleration' space.
Accelerated Decline with Increased Volume Short Selling Strategy

If the price breaks a key support level and is accompanied by a sharp increase in volume, this is the clearest signal for bears. Especially when it breaks below the daily moving average or structural lows, and the volume expands to more than twice, that signals an accelerated downward trend. Strategy: After breaking support, short on the first weak rebound (with low volume), placing a stop loss above the rebound high of the support. This captures the largest segment of the 'breakout acceleration' space.
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The strategy of increasing positions in line with rising price and volume When the price is rising, the trading volume also steadily increases, and each pullback shows a decrease in volume; this is the most standard bullish trend. Strategy: Gradually increase positions near the low points of each pullback with decreased volume, and set stop losses below the low points of the pullbacks. The longer the trend lasts, the more it relies on the price-volume structure; do not go all in with heavy positions, but instead "increase positions on volume decrease, increase positions on volume decrease" in a cyclical manner.
The strategy of increasing positions in line with rising price and volume

When the price is rising, the trading volume also steadily increases, and each pullback shows a decrease in volume; this is the most standard bullish trend. Strategy: Gradually increase positions near the low points of each pullback with decreased volume, and set stop losses below the low points of the pullbacks. The longer the trend lasts, the more it relies on the price-volume structure; do not go all in with heavy positions, but instead "increase positions on volume decrease, increase positions on volume decrease" in a cyclical manner.
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Rebound Strategy After a Large Dropping Candle A large dropping candle accompanied by huge volume indicates that the bears have released their emotions all at once, but often means that the 'panic selling is nearing its end.' Strategy: Do not try to catch the bottom during a crash; instead, wait for the first small rising candle with reduced volume after the large dropping candle, using the midpoint of the large dropping candle as the profit-taking target. Volume-Price Logic: Huge Volume Large Dropping Candle = Extreme Selling; Small Volume Rising Candle = Reduced Selling Pressure. Risks are controllable but should be traded lightly.
Rebound Strategy After a Large Dropping Candle

A large dropping candle accompanied by huge volume indicates that the bears have released their emotions all at once, but often means that the 'panic selling is nearing its end.' Strategy: Do not try to catch the bottom during a crash; instead, wait for the first small rising candle with reduced volume after the large dropping candle, using the midpoint of the large dropping candle as the profit-taking target. Volume-Price Logic: Huge Volume Large Dropping Candle = Extreme Selling; Small Volume Rising Candle = Reduced Selling Pressure. Risks are controllable but should be traded lightly.
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Bottom volume + needle prick absorption reversal long strategy After a long-term price decline, a sudden and continuous appearance of "lower shadows + high volume" indicates that buying pressure is starting to take over, and the bears can no longer suppress the price. The key is to look for 2–3 consecutive high-volume lower shadow K lines. Strategy: Go long when the last lower shadow high point breaks, and set the stop loss below the needle prick low point. If there is a slow increase in volume afterwards, one can gradually increase the position. This is a typical bottom reversal pattern.
Bottom volume + needle prick absorption reversal long strategy

After a long-term price decline, a sudden and continuous appearance of "lower shadows + high volume" indicates that buying pressure is starting to take over, and the bears can no longer suppress the price. The key is to look for 2–3 consecutive high-volume lower shadow K lines. Strategy: Go long when the last lower shadow high point breaks, and set the stop loss below the needle prick low point. If there is a slow increase in volume afterwards, one can gradually increase the position. This is a typical bottom reversal pattern.
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Continuous increase in volume but no price increase = Short selling strategy Price remains stable with frequent upper shadows, but trading volume continues to increase; this is a typical "high-level turnover" or major player selling. The divergence between volume and price indicates that high-level funds are selling to those chasing the upward sentiment. Strategy: Once the sideways movement breaks down, immediately follow the short position, with a stop-loss set at the upper edge of the sideways range. The longer the sideways period and the greater the trading volume, the stronger the downward acceleration. Suitable for capturing the "selling pressure" market.
Continuous increase in volume but no price increase = Short selling strategy

Price remains stable with frequent upper shadows, but trading volume continues to increase; this is a typical "high-level turnover" or major player selling. The divergence between volume and price indicates that high-level funds are selling to those chasing the upward sentiment. Strategy: Once the sideways movement breaks down, immediately follow the short position, with a stop-loss set at the upper edge of the sideways range. The longer the sideways period and the greater the trading volume, the stronger the downward acceleration. Suitable for capturing the "selling pressure" market.
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Sudden surge but no volume's inducement reverse strategy Prices suddenly spike, but trading volume does not keep up, and there are no significant large orders buying, which often indicates a false signal. The judgment method: a rapid increase of 3%-5%, but the trading volume does not exceed 80% of the average volume of the last 20 bars. This type of 'strong price, weak volume' is likely to pull back. The contract strategy is: to short lightly near the peak of the false signal, with a stop loss set above the high point of the long upper shadow. What you are capturing is the pullback after the false signal withdrawal.
Sudden surge but no volume's inducement reverse strategy

Prices suddenly spike, but trading volume does not keep up, and there are no significant large orders buying, which often indicates a false signal. The judgment method: a rapid increase of 3%-5%, but the trading volume does not exceed 80% of the average volume of the last 20 bars. This type of 'strong price, weak volume' is likely to pull back. The contract strategy is: to short lightly near the peak of the false signal, with a stop loss set above the high point of the long upper shadow. What you are capturing is the pullback after the false signal withdrawal.
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The "decline exhaustion" reversal strategy of falling prices and shrinking volume If the price continues to decline with decreasing trading volume, it indicates that the bears' willingness to suppress is decreasing, and the bulls may launch a counterattack at any time. The key is to find the last "no-volume shadow line" or piercing K-line, using the low point as a stop-loss to take a small long position. Volume shrinkage means insufficient selling pressure; if a subsequent strong reversal bullish line appears, it is a confirmation signal. This strategy is suitable for capturing small rebounds or reversal points, but not for one-sided sharp declines.
The "decline exhaustion" reversal strategy of falling prices and shrinking volume

If the price continues to decline with decreasing trading volume, it indicates that the bears' willingness to suppress is decreasing, and the bulls may launch a counterattack at any time. The key is to find the last "no-volume shadow line" or piercing K-line, using the low point as a stop-loss to take a small long position. Volume shrinkage means insufficient selling pressure; if a subsequent strong reversal bullish line appears, it is a confirmation signal. This strategy is suitable for capturing small rebounds or reversal points, but not for one-sided sharp declines.
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Volume Breakthrough Following Strategy When the price tests a key resistance level multiple times but fails to break through, a significant increase in volume that forms a solid breakthrough candlestick indicates that the bullish force has truly entered the market. The strategy is not to FOMO at the moment of the breakthrough, but to enter on the first small-level pullback after the breakthrough, with the stop loss placed below the breakthrough structure. The stronger the combination of volume and price, the more reliable it is: price breakthrough = direction, volume increase = momentum. If the breakthrough is accompanied by a trading volume of 1.5 to 2 times or more, the win rate significantly increases. Suitable for trending markets, not suitable for sideways markets.
Volume Breakthrough Following Strategy

When the price tests a key resistance level multiple times but fails to break through, a significant increase in volume that forms a solid breakthrough candlestick indicates that the bullish force has truly entered the market. The strategy is not to FOMO at the moment of the breakthrough, but to enter on the first small-level pullback after the breakthrough, with the stop loss placed below the breakthrough structure. The stronger the combination of volume and price, the more reliable it is: price breakthrough = direction, volume increase = momentum. If the breakthrough is accompanied by a trading volume of 1.5 to 2 times or more, the win rate significantly increases. Suitable for trending markets, not suitable for sideways markets.
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I just made a bit more by going long, now I've gone short.
I just made a bit more by going long, now I've gone short.
K线局长
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MacroTrader K Line Director:
December 9, 2025 Director BTC Market Analysis #BTC走势分析
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Director, I have placed a short position at the pressure point.
Director, I have placed a short position at the pressure point.
K线局长
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MacroTrader K Line Director:
BTC market analysis by the Director on December 8, 2025 #BTC走势分析
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Error Tolerance Arbitrage Strategy (Low Leverage High Success Rate) Applicable: For those who do not want to be liquidated and want to make steady profits Logic: Low Leverage + Key Structure = High Error Tolerance Clear Trend + Low Leverage is like "easy money" in the trading world. Approach: Use 2–3 times leverage Only trade in the direction of the 4H major trend Entry points: Pullback to MA20 / VWAP Or the previous structure's highs/lows Set stop-loss distance slightly larger (to avoid being shaken out) Take profit can be based on interval median / previous highs and lows Most suitable for players who want stable profits and are not chasing overnight wealth.
Error Tolerance Arbitrage Strategy (Low Leverage High Success Rate)

Applicable: For those who do not want to be liquidated and want to make steady profits

Logic:

Low Leverage + Key Structure = High Error Tolerance

Clear Trend + Low Leverage is like "easy money" in the trading world.

Approach:

Use 2–3 times leverage

Only trade in the direction of the 4H major trend

Entry points:

Pullback to MA20 / VWAP

Or the previous structure's highs/lows

Set stop-loss distance slightly larger (to avoid being shaken out)

Take profit can be based on interval median / previous highs and lows

Most suitable for players who want stable profits and are not chasing overnight wealth.
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Breakout Acceleration Selling/Buying Point Strategy Applicable: When the market suddenly fluctuates strongly or trends extend rapidly Logic: Once a key position is broken, large funds will drive the price to expand quickly downwards or upwards. At this time, the trend momentum is strongest, suitable for 'chasing'. Method: Observe 4H or 1H key support/resistance A strong breakout with a large bullish (or bearish) candle Accompanied by increased volume Enter after a small-level pullback following the breakout This is one of the fastest ways to make money in a trending market.
Breakout Acceleration Selling/Buying Point Strategy

Applicable: When the market suddenly fluctuates strongly or trends extend rapidly

Logic:

Once a key position is broken, large funds will drive the price to expand quickly downwards or upwards.

At this time, the trend momentum is strongest, suitable for 'chasing'.

Method:

Observe 4H or 1H key support/resistance

A strong breakout with a large bullish (or bearish) candle

Accompanied by increased volume

Enter after a small-level pullback following the breakout

This is one of the fastest ways to make money in a trending market.
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Small level three consecutive ups (or three consecutive downs) reversal capture Applicable: Short-term trading, those who trade on small time frames Logic: When three consecutive small candlesticks of the same direction appear on the 1-minute or 5-minute chart: It indicates excessive emotion Most likely to see a short-term reversal Method: When seeing three consecutive ups or three consecutive downs on 1min/5min And the third candlestick shows a significant decrease in volume You can open a reverse position after the fourth reverse candlestick appears.
Small level three consecutive ups (or three consecutive downs) reversal capture

Applicable: Short-term trading, those who trade on small time frames

Logic:

When three consecutive small candlesticks of the same direction appear on the 1-minute or 5-minute chart:

It indicates excessive emotion

Most likely to see a short-term reversal

Method:

When seeing three consecutive ups or three consecutive downs on 1min/5min

And the third candlestick shows a significant decrease in volume

You can open a reverse position after the fourth reverse candlestick appears.
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Key Price Level False Breakout Counterattack Strategy Applicable: During periods of frequent fake breakouts in a volatile market Logic: The most profitable trades in the cryptocurrency market often come from 'fake lines'. Large funds like to push prices past critical levels to tempt retail investors into chasing trades, then reverse and harvest profits. Characteristics: Breakthrough of key levels But immediately pulled back quickly Forming long upper shadows/long lower shadows Approach: Break above false breakout → Open short Break below false breakdown → Open long Stop loss set outside the shadow line at 0.2–0.4% (very small) This is a high win rate 'passive waiting for money' strategy.
Key Price Level False Breakout Counterattack Strategy

Applicable: During periods of frequent fake breakouts in a volatile market

Logic:

The most profitable trades in the cryptocurrency market often come from 'fake lines'.

Large funds like to push prices past critical levels to tempt retail investors into chasing trades, then reverse and harvest profits.

Characteristics:

Breakthrough of key levels

But immediately pulled back quickly

Forming long upper shadows/long lower shadows

Approach:

Break above false breakout → Open short

Break below false breakdown → Open long

Stop loss set outside the shadow line at 0.2–0.4% (very small)

This is a high win rate 'passive waiting for money' strategy.
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Three Principles of Confirming Pullbacks (Conservative Trend-Following Strategy) Applicable to: Those who want to follow trends but are afraid of chasing highs Logic: In trend trading, most liquidations are not due to the wrong direction, but rather due to "chasing at high points". Confirming pullbacks is the safest way to enter the market. Three Principles: Maintain strong momentum in large-scale trends (4H / 1D) During the pullback process, volume decreases (bears are weak) Key support shows signs of stopping the decline (pin, stabilization, small positive) Method: Pullback to MA20, previous highs, near trend lines Stopping the decline + decreasing volume = Entry Break support and stop loss immediately, without hesitation
Three Principles of Confirming Pullbacks (Conservative Trend-Following Strategy)

Applicable to: Those who want to follow trends but are afraid of chasing highs

Logic:

In trend trading, most liquidations are not due to the wrong direction, but rather due to "chasing at high points".

Confirming pullbacks is the safest way to enter the market.

Three Principles:

Maintain strong momentum in large-scale trends (4H / 1D)

During the pullback process, volume decreases (bears are weak)

Key support shows signs of stopping the decline (pin, stabilization, small positive)

Method:

Pullback to MA20, previous highs, near trend lines

Stopping the decline + decreasing volume = Entry

Break support and stop loss immediately, without hesitation
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Volume at bottom does not break = Bottom confirmation signal (conservative long) Logic: True bottom = "no one is willing to sell + shorts have no motivation" → Extremely low trading volume. Identification: Continuous low volume (lowest volume K appears multiple times close) Price no longer breaks the bottom Once a volume spike occurs → Entry signal Method: The first volume spike is the entry point Stop loss placed below the previous bottom by 0.3–0.5%
Volume at bottom does not break = Bottom confirmation signal (conservative long)

Logic:

True bottom = "no one is willing to sell + shorts have no motivation" → Extremely low trading volume.

Identification:

Continuous low volume (lowest volume K appears multiple times close)

Price no longer breaks the bottom

Once a volume spike occurs → Entry signal

Method:

The first volume spike is the entry point

Stop loss placed below the previous bottom by 0.3–0.5%
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