Eric SJ

Attention all traders:

From now on, before making any trades, especially in the morning, I will post an intraday trend analysis for the assets we're targeting, usually BTC, ETH, and SOL.

The trading direction and analysis for the day will primarily follow this note, and the trend must remain consistent unless I explicitly indicate a direction change.

If there's a violation, I'll be sending out red envelopes for each infraction!

US stock market opens
$BTC what's the big plan?

Wow, it's rare to see $BTC with 5-minute consecutive days of rising so many times—this doesn't look like just a rebound, it seems like it might be about to make a big move.

$BTC This round really is a bit too aggressive. At the 63,000 level, on the short-term cycle there doesn’t seem to be any hesitation—directly a hard one straight down.

Now that support has turned into overhead resistance. Today’s direction is already set: selling on the downside is the main play.

So the corresponding strategy is only: short the rebound and go long at lower levels.

For the rebound, consider shorting around 63,200. For the low-level long, place a buy near 62,500.

"The Stellar Chain, this “old-timer,” may have gotten a ticket for the new cycle"

At the moment, in the RWA U.S. Treasury sub-sector, the asset size of Stellar Chain $XLM ranks third—already surpassing Solana

If we look at the total RWA asset size, Stellar Chain is fourth, with only a gap of about $500 million left versus Solana

It has always focused on enterprise-grade payments, but it may now be getting heavily backed by institutions

For a long time, the Stellar Chain has been ignored by the market, yet it has the most important “quality” for the new cycle: compliance

Here are some of its changes:

➠ On August 1 last year, the RWA market value on the Stellar Chain was about $500 million. Today, after a full year, that figure has already exceeded $3 billion

Meanwhile, the stablecoin market cap reached about $461 million, up 40% over the past 30 days

Its RWA asset composition isn’t a case of isolated prosperity supported by a single product; it has started to form a complete asset issuer structure: traditional asset management, on-chain U.S. Treasuries, and private credit products

Along with stablecoins

In short, among the more mainstream RWA asset issuers in the industry today, nearly all of them have been doing issuance on the Stellar Chain

➠ Last month, MoneyGram, Figure Markets, and Range announced that they would become Tier 1 validator nodes for the Stellar Chain, with onboarding expected to be completed before mid-month

These three companies are big players in payments, one of the leaders in RWA, and also provide compliance tooling—the three capabilities needed for the Stellar Chain to build an institutional finance closed loop

And institutional use of a chain is completely different from whether institutions are willing to maintain a chain

I think all of this is telling us one thing: this “old-timer” on the Stellar Chain may have gotten a “ticket” for the new cycle

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Now let’s switch to the chart

Currently, the daily structure of $XLM is reapproaching the sideways support area that formed earlier

If you enter in the 0.16–0.17 range, the odds look good

This range has been absorbing chip exchange for a long time—it was also where the price previously launched quickly. Downside risk is clear, and upside potential is substantial

Why share this all of a sudden?

Because after seeing these recent changes on the Stellar Chain, I believe it may regain mainstream market attention in the next cycle

That’s why the above view—starting from the RWA development trajectory—has been extended to $XLM

It seems the big pancake ($BTC ) entered too much; it still gives intraday orders.

Looks like it might form an arc.

What night is it now?

I just saw a tweet saying that someone is building an application on Polkadot $DOT

This can’t really be described as something like what the troops who entered the country in 1949 could have said anymore.

My meme collection still has that “ancient folk song” from back then.

First comes Polkadot, then comes the sky—Ethereum and Bitcoin are all on the sidelines
Asynchronous isomorphism + bonus points + a side-by-side chain
Parallel threads, a brand-new experience
You can mine blocks anytime, anywhere—everything in the world is put on-chain
Laughing at how everyone in the crypto market is like “Ah Dou,” and once a slot goes live, it can break into the thousands

I’ll say this: 99% of the people who saw this post won’t understand it.

The Perp DEX quarterly report I posted the day before yesterday

The four protocols I selected may not represent the entire Perp DEX industry, but they basically form a management sample spanning from the top tier, to the mid tier, and down to the tail

Their total Q2 revenue fell by 21.4% quarter over quarter, and this happened even though Q2 was more volatile than Q1

I also went to check the CEX derivatives trading data, and after compiling it, I found that it too declined quarter over quarter

What I put above is the combined revenue decline; in the data shown in Figure 2

Although all four protocols saw declines, the proportions vary greatly—the two middle protocols saw the largest decline, both at over 50%

This suggests that when market trading activity drops, users and liquidity do not withdraw evenly from all platforms

My inference is that funds likely left first from platforms with weaker user stickiness or those more dependent on incentives, and only later would that start to affect the top-tier platforms with stronger network effects

➠ Or put another way, mid-tier protocols may be used as backups—when “market temperature” cools, the “spare tire” is abandoned more easily

As for tail protocols, because their user base is relatively smaller, the impact they experience is not as large as what certain mid-tier protocols with a certain scale have experienced

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Then, looking at profit margins: for now, you can use 70% as an observation line to divide the four Perp DEXs into two basic layers:

Hyperliquid @HyperliquidX and Lighter @Lighter_xyz have profit margins above 70%, while edgeX and ApeX are below 70%

This line reflects not only each platform’s pricing power, but also cost control, liquidity efficiency, and ecosystem incentive spending—so it cannot represent overall operational quality on its own

If you want to further evaluate a Perp DEX’s operating quality, you need to observe three dimensions at the same time: revenue scale, profit-margin stability, and costs

Cost items vary somewhat across each protocol, but they largely come down to these elements: market maker rebates, referral rewards, liquidity incentives, and other ecosystem allocations

Even half of these expenditures are not positively correlated with trading volume

➠ For example, liquidity: even if a trading platform’s trading volume declines in a given quarter, it must still maintain order-book depth, market-making quality, and user experience; otherwise, the revenue decline will further turn into user churn

When entering or withdrawing funds in the crypto world

If you know right away that there’s a problem, it’s usually because there’s an issue with the account/card—there can be many reasons.

Sometimes it’s just triggering risk controls; going to the bank to resolve it is usually easier.

If there’s a problem with the funds, you usually won’t know immediately. But once your funds are frozen, many cases like this involve funds tied to an investigation.

These are the bigger cases—people end up losing both money and people.

Some U-merchant themselves are already part of a certain gray–black industry chain. They can roughly tell when this money will run into trouble.

$ETH has reached structural support; if you’re going to trade intraday and buy the rebound,

the resistance level is at 1900. Around there you need to close the position; at the current price you can only capture about 20 points.

I’ve assessed it personally: I think there’s still some chance. The risk-reward ratio is 2:1, so I’ll set my stop loss at 1870.

Try it—empty a hand $BNB , it’s still an intraday order

From the hourly timeframe, the earlier wave of the main uptrend produced a five-wave sequence

This part can be understood as the second wave of a corrective move; next, the third wave will continue downward

Try SoraLa $SOL for a bit, it feels soft and firm.

$BTC after reaching a period of consolidation at the integer level, it’s about to move up

This time, when it goes up, the resistance level at 64200 won’t be able to stop it

I won’t go into other random stuff too much

$XRP 回踩到这个趋势支撑线上了

If you go long on the left side of this level, you must close and take profit at the resistance level of 1.08–1.085

Similarly, if you already have a low-level long position, it’s best to take profit at that same level as price moves up

$MSFT and $META are both earnings reports released after the U.S. stock market close in the early hours of the morning. The after-hours price action basically mirrored each other

One surged to a high
One then plunged

They both have AI and are both trillion-dollar market cap companies. I scanned the key figures in both companies’ earnings reports and found that their conflict point lies in

One has already begun to兑现 AI commercialization
One is still in the AI investment and validation phase

It just happened to coincide with the market’s AI validation period and a low point in sentiment: AI stocks that didn’t beat expectations for earnings—especially those “selling sugar water” highs—generally pulled back

So everyone is more sensitive to the issue of cash flow

This time, Meta’s quarterly operating cash flow reached about $31.86 billion, up about 25% year over year, while capital expenditures surged to about $31.08 billion, up about 83%

Subtract the two, and free cash flow is left at only about $784 million, down about 91% from $8.55 billion in the same period last year

Then it took the lead and jumped into the plunge

$BTC Need to take back the drawdown. For long positions, you can take profit around here

If you plan to buy on the pullback, make sure to allocate your position size properly—you should use a smaller size than usual

The pullback is supported by the key integer support

Seagate’s earnings report released after the close of trading in the U.S. on Tuesday, $STX.US , doesn’t seem to have any major issues when you look purely at the numbers.

I thought that today’s open might go the opposite way of the trend set by $MU and run for a bit. But right at the open, the price action immediately did a gap-up and then a slide—
It looks like it could keep going further.

As for the “AI base case pulling back”—is it really that there are no exceptions?

Seagate FY2026 Q4 revenue reached $3.629 billion, up 48.5% year over year, and up about 16.7% quarter over quarter from the previous quarter’s $3.11 billion.

Even more dramatic: both earnings per share (EPS) and free cash flow achieved triple-digit year-over-year growth.

And this growth came from the core business, not simply from producing more traditional hard drives to drive revenue.

Behind this is demand from cloud data centers for high-capacity drives.

“The company said that demand from cloud data centers is the main driving force behind this round of growth.”

Market demand hasn’t changed—if anything, it’s still quite strong.

Management also showed no signs of weakening demand for the next quarter, providing double-digit growth guidance for both revenue and EPS.

But even so, after turning in a report like this, the stock didn’t break into an independent trading trend.

Over the past two months, what I’ve seen the market expect from AI concept stocks has been along the lines of: “Good isn’t enough—you have to keep exceeding expectations by a lot, super, super, super well.”

That kind of expectation has become a bit too extreme. At the moment, the risk appetite for the AI sector is still quite weak. Even with such a strong report, all it could bring was a gap-up that was then given back.

And semiconductor stocks have also continued to weaken intraday today.

So while the market opened higher and then pulled back, it still suggests that this is good news that can’t further support valuation expansion (of course, there’s also the broader trend of AI weakening).

In short, this earnings report proves that AI storage demand is real.

But the market action is also reminding us: when sentiment turns positive, it’s not enough to be saved by just one sweet carrot.