数字春秋

Robinhood’s chain launch has started “printing money”: in-app revenue within 24 hours hit a historic record of $1.9 million, directly pushing Arbitrum tokens up 30%.

The core driving force behind the revenue surge is that traders on the new chain chase downstream yield—on-chain trading, arbitrage, and ecosystem projects are rolling in one after another, making ARB the direct beneficiary of this wave of traffic incentives. The chain itself has started generating real income—this is no longer just a story about a meme-fueled market, but a new-chain economic model being validated by the market.

But let’s pour some cold water: a new chain’s income boom is usually a typical feature of the launch phase. Whether it can last depends on whether user retention and real demand can keep up. Short-term sentiment is already fully priced in—if you’re chasing gains, be very cautious, and pay attention to position sizing. #ARB #RobinhoodChain #cryptocurrency

Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and other global top-tier banks and asset management institutions have announced a joint effort to advance a stablecoin joint-venture project.

As a first step, the focus is on US dollar stablecoins, mainly for payments and digital-asset settlement; euro stablecoins have been listed as a priority expansion direction. The participants span the banking, asset management, and payments sectors, making the lineup truly a “top-institution dream team.”

The message is clear: traditional financial giants no longer view stablecoins as a threat, but as the next-generation payments infrastructure. Banks moving in directly means the compliance-focused stablecoin market will face real, institutional-grade competition—cross-border settlement, corporate treasury management, and on-chain clearing could all be reshaped.

For existing stablecoin players, the entry of bank-backed players is both an endorsement and a pressure: reserve audits, transparency, and compliance frameworks will become new entry requirements. What ordinary users really care about is whether payment costs can come down and whether transactions can be processed faster. #稳定币 #加密货币 #Payment

The U.S. SEC Unveils Major Signals in Succession: On the One Hand, It Proposes a Brand-New Transfer Agent Ruleset; on the Other, It Announces a Roundtable Focused on “24-Hour U.S. Stock Trading.”

The new rules target the longest step in the traditional securities settlement system—transfer agents. Today, U.S. stock trading largely relies on T+1 settlement, during which a large amount of manual reconciliation is involved. The SEC has clearly proposed to study how blockchain technology can be applied to this process. Once that is in place, stock trading may be able to move from T+1 to truly real-time 7×24-hour trading.

For the crypto market, this is not only about filling gaps in the regulatory framework—it also means that the boundaries between traditional finance and on-chain infrastructure are being redrawn. The regulator’s proactive study of around-the-clock trading in itself indicates that the feasibility of on-chain settlement has already been put on the table.

Two points are worth monitoring next: whether the roundtable will provide a timeline; and the indirect impact of the new rules on stablecoins and tokenized securities. #SEC #比特币 #Crypto Regulation

#布伦特原油涨破90美元
👉 原油破90，比特币却脱钩了，进群聊

A tanker through the Strait of Hormuz struck a mine and caught fire. Brent crude is up by over $90, and the geopolitical premium is back.

The U.S. moves against Iran: oil prices rise and U.S. stocks fall, but Bitcoin doesn’t seem to react much—still up 24% for the month, the best since November 2024. In conflicts of this level, crypto should have already been jumping around.

This time, the “immunity” holds. In the end, the pricing anchor for crypto has changed: in the short term, it’s the U.S. dollar and interest rates. Geopolitics mainly affects sentiment and can’t change the direction of capital. Oil prices pushing inflation, and inflation pushing rate-hike expectations—that’s the line we really need to watch.

Bitcoin became “immune” to geopolitics earlier than gold. What do you think about this decoupling cycle?

#比特币守稳78000美元上方
👉 78000守住了，8月涨24%，这个位置你怎么看？进群聊

August comes to a close: Bitcoin closed above 78,000, up 24% for the month—its best month since November 2024.

The headwind is the U.S. dollar: the yen broke below 160, the probability of a September rate hike rose to 57%, and money flowed into the dollar. Crypto was pressured, but it didn’t break down. ETH also formed a bullish golden cross, and the technical picture is gradually repairing.

Under the same pressure, after BTC fell from 80,000 to 78,000, it stopped declining—suggesting there are buyers below. The Iran–Israel conflict, and incidents involving oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, didn’t knock it down; instead, safe-haven capital has been slowly returning.

The monthly candle closed bullish, and the weekly chart is stable as well. At the 78,000 level, will you watch from the sidelines or take action?

#美联储9月加息概率升至57%
👉 9月加息到底加不加？58%的概率该怎么读，进群聊

After the hawkish remarks on Friday, the market briefly talked about a 90% chance of a September rate hike, but futures pricing was actually only 58%.

A month ago, that figure was still below 30%. The remarks were amplified and interpreted more aggressively, and institutions’ follow-up pricing wasn’t that aggressive.

With expectations for a rate hike revised upward, the US dollar strengthened, and risk assets naturally came under pressure. That’s also why Bitcoin slipped from 80,000 to 78,000. However, the probability hasn’t crossed 60%—it feels more like a reaction to sentiment rather than the point where a trend reversal is underway.

Before the September policy meeting, there are still several pieces of data to be released. At this level, look more at the actual pricing and don’t let headlines run the show. What do you think?

Why has my life basically not had any drawdowns?

By the end of 2025, I had already achieved the financial goals that the version of me who was 20 used to set for the version of me who would be 30.

As the crypto market has gone into decline and the market has matured, my money-printing machine has stalled. I’ve lost the steady blood-making ability I used to have in the bull market—earning a few million to tens of millions every month. So to be honest, at this stage, making an extra $10m doesn’t attract me at all (my life goals are already achieved; even adding more dopamine stimulation has limited effect). But losing $1m makes me really heartbroken (because what I’m losing is my limited, non-renewable resources).
My current “heartbreak threshold” is about $100,000. If I lose more than that on a single trade in my manual, subjective trading, I get heartbroken.

More than 75% of my wealth comes from informational advantages and low-latency advantages during the wild early days of the 2021–2025 crypto market. 15% comes from stepping in to buy the dip during rare black swan events that happen only a few times a year. The remaining 10% is actual investing and long-term subjective trading.

Without a home-field information advantage, when I do subjective trading, I’m basically no different from ordinary people. So when it comes to areas I’m not familiar with, I only test the waters with “ant-sized” positions where I can accept the potential loss. If it goes wrong, then it’s gone.

Although I’m persistent about maintaining the numbers in my wealth, my view of wealth is still calculated in terms of real-world purchasing power. For example, if I lose $100,000, I feel like “I lost a gold bar.” If I earn $500,000, I feel like “I earned a Lamborghini.” My brain doesn’t allow me to make trades that are too dangerous.

I have a special kind of obsession: “Since you all say it’s easy to get rich young and then become arrogant, and that you won’t end well when you get success early—then I’ll make everyone see what a Liu Luanxiong-style ‘get rich early, and then enjoy your life for a whole lifetime’ looks like.”

🚨 Breaking: Japan and the United States team up to push the USD/JPY exchange rate down by 3.3%, marking the biggest single-day drop in more than two years.

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US Treasury Secretary **Scott Bessent** said:

“The yen is currently severely undervalued.”
“Excessive exchange-rate volatility is not a healthy thing for markets.”

Meanwhile, the Japanese government recorded a historic investment of $73.4 billion in the previous quarter to buy yen in an effort to support the exchange rate.

However, even so, the yen previously slid to its lowest level in nearly 40 years at one point.

This means Japan is stepping up efforts to stabilize its domestic currency, and the US remarks also signal concern about a situation in which the US dollar is too strong and the yen too weak.

Large swings in USD/JPY not only affect the FX market, but may also further influence global capital flows and the performance of risk assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies.

$GIGGLE Continued the strong upward momentum from yesterday.

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After a round of rapid price increases, GIGGLE did not experience a major pullback. Instead, it entered a period of consolidation at high levels, and is now once again attempting to push higher.

From the daily chart perspective:
📈 The daily K-line has once again turned bullish;
📊 Trading volume is also continuing to expand;
🎯 Price is trying to break through the key resistance level around $33.35.

Next, two levels are the key to watch:
$24–$25 is the most critical support area right now. As long as the price can hold within this range; then if it can break above the resistance around $33 with increased volume, the upward momentum may be released further.

At that time, the price could have a chance to challenge the target range of $42–$45.
However, this view is still based on technical analysis. Whether it can be achieved ultimately depends on whether trading volume continues to cooperate and overall market sentiment remains strong.

You can tell……

Many people didn’t expect that after Bitcoin (BTC) saw a sharp drop from $83,000 to $59,000, it could still rebound this quickly.

Under normal expectations, after that big bearish candle, the market should have continued to trend downward.

But that isn’t what happened.

**The market did not go through a typical Wave 5 extension selloff;** instead, it bounced back rapidly after sweeping the low-point liquidity.

This often signals that the sellers are already running out of steam.

In other words, there are fewer and fewer shares available to sell—those willing and able to sell are dwindling, and the selling pressure is gradually exhausting.

At the same time, the chart also shows a very obvious divergence signal—it's already right in front of everyone.

More importantly, Bitcoin completed this rebound from a position that almost nobody was optimistic about.
That’s why truly big moves often begin quietly when the market is at its most pessimistic and when the vast majority of people least expect it.

Tonight’s FOMC meeting isn’t a routine interest-rate decision—it will very likely determine the direction of the crypto market going forward.

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Many people are focused on the rate decision, but I believe what truly moves the market is the press conference held afterward by the Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh.

🕒 Key timings:
Rate decision released: 18:30 UTC (02:30 Beijing time the next day)
Fed press conference: 19:00 UTC (03:00 Beijing time the next day)
Current market expectations:

66.3% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%; 33.7% probability of a 25-basis-point hike (0.25%).
Many traders rush into positions on the very first candlestick after the news hits.
But at that moment, the market is often driven more by emotion—where volatility is highest, and where it’s easiest to get swept back and forth for gains/losses.

By contrast, I care more about how the market moves after that first wave of emotional release. Because truly high-probability trading opportunities with a better risk-reward ratio often show up in that phase.
If Warsh’s remarks are more dovish than the market expects, Bitcoin and major altcoins may be poised for a strong rally.

But if his wording remains hawkish, then risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—are likely to come under pressure again.

No matter the final outcome, tonight is an important turning point capable of influencing the direction of the entire market.
Sometimes, waiting patiently for confirmation signals is more valuable than rushing in as the first mover.
What do you think?
📈 After the FOMC ends, do you believe the market will stay bullish—or turn bearish?

📊 The trend of TST is mirroring the shape Giggle had before it initially launched.

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📉 It has also gone through a long downtrend;
🎯 It has similarly been steadily consolidating with decreasing volume near the falling trendline;
🚀 Giggle has already completed its breakout and then saw a big surge; and now TST is at the same position where Giggle was before its breakout.

Candlesticks don’t lie.

If history repeats itself again, TST is very likely to be the next coin to break out. 👀
Of course, this is only similarity in technical patterns, and it does not mean TST will definitely replicate Giggle’s gains. Next, we still need to watch whether TST can truly break through the key resistance level, and whether it can do so with a corresponding increase in trading volume, to further confirm the uptrend.

#BNBChain #MemeCoin #Crypto #Altcoins #TST

In this bull run, does XRP really have a chance to rise to $18?

Some analysts believe that this is not impossible.

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They think XRP has already shown bullish reversal signals, and that multiple technical indicators continue to improve. If, going forward, the breakout of a key level can be confirmed and market momentum keeps strengthening, then higher target prices have a chance to be gradually realized.

However, it’s important to note that $18 is still only a long-term expectation at the moment, and it doesn’t mean it will definitely be achieved.

To reach that level, XRP still needs to meet several key conditions:
Successfully break through an important resistance level; Maintain strong buying pressure consistently; Keep the overall market environment favorable.

Only when these conditions are met at the same time will the $18 target become increasingly realistic.
Judging by the current situation, XRP’s price action does indeed look more interesting than it has over the past few weeks.

As for whether this will evolve into a truly major行情, or just another “false breakout to lure buyers,” we’ll ultimately have to see how the price performs at the next key resistance level.

🚨 Trump: “We will launch a fierce strike against Iran because now it’s our turn.”

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July 30

Trump said:
“We will hit Iran hard because now it’s our turn to act.”
“They know all of this is about to happen. They don’t want us to do it, but last night they still launched an attack on us.”

“They fired five rockets (or missiles) with flight speeds of up to 8,500 miles per hour, but all five were successfully intercepted.”

“They’ve already struck.”

“Now it’s our turn to respond. As for whether we can reach an agreement in the future, we’ll wait and see.”

“But before that, we will hit them hard.”

Trump later also claimed:
“Iran has already apologized for yesterday’s attack.”
“However, we’re still going to teach them a lesson.”

🚨 Breaking: The Federal Reserve has released a very important signal.

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Federal Reserve Chair **Kevin Warsh** has warned Wall Street:
“Stop watching what I say to trade. You should trade by watching economic data.”

Several key takeaways from this meeting:
📌 The federal funds rate is kept unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%.
📌 Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target level.
📌 The Fed is no longer providing forward guidance on the future path of interest rates.

This means that going forward, how the market moves will no longer be determined by the Fed’s “verbal hints.”
The real driver of market action will be each individual economic data release.

From now on, every inflation print (CPI/PCE), the nonfarm payrolls report, and other major economic indicators released could become the key event that triggers volatility in the market.

The future market will enter a “data-driven” trading era, not a “expectations-driven” trading era.

A friend told me that he’s planning to buy Bitcoin (BTC) worth $5,000 for under $60,000, and also to buy Ethereum (ETH) worth $5,000 for under $1,700, but he still feels a little scared.

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I only said one thing to him. Listen carefully, everyone—let’s talk about this issue. Over the next five years, the market will go through an extremely intense reshuffling. In reality, only a handful of altcoins will truly survive, while Bitcoin and Ethereum will definitely be among them.

Even if you buy Bitcoin at $60,000 and later it drops below $40,000, don’t panic. As long as you have patience and hold long-term, there’s a high likelihood that you can still make money. I believe that in the future, we will definitely see Bitcoin reach $2 million.

The only question isn’t whether it can get there, but when it will.
Also don’t forget: Bitcoin’s total supply is only 21 million coins. As time goes on, more and more people will want to own a portion of Bitcoin. By then, a Bitcoin priced at $200,000 might even seem cheap—just like how, looking back today, people might think of a few-thousand-dollar Bitcoin as being inexpensive.

So, in my view, as long as you buy Bitcoin below $65,000, from a long-term investing perspective, it’s still a good price range, and the probability of future profits remains high.

I’ve recently been getting questions like this:

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I hope $BANK doesn’t completely collapse.
Does it still have a chance to pump again?
…
Let me make one thing clear to everyone.
Right now, you’re already being swayed by your emotions and you’ve fallen into the state of **“trading based on hope,”** instead of seriously managing risk.

Do you really think those insider funds, the operators/whales, care about you?
Are they pulling the price up just so you can make money?
Of course not.
The purpose of their existence is to harvest market liquidity and earn the money of retail traders.

If you get liquidated, it means your judgment this time was wrong.
Accept the facts, summarize the experience, and keep moving forward.

Next time, don’t pin your hopes on whether the price will rise.
Instead, think about how the operators are playing this game, make contingency plans in advance, and when the next round of pumping and the opportunity to distribute (Pump & Dump) appears, execute according to your plan.

This is what you truly should be doing.

Gold is currently trading within a clear demand/support zone and following the long-term descending trendline. Buyers continue to hold the current area, increasing the likelihood of a bullish breakout and upward move in the gold price.

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Key Levels: 🔹 Support: 3,945–3,980 (demand zone)
🔹 Resistance: 4,123 (Target 1)
🔹 Major Resistance: 4,222 (Target 2)

Bullish Scenario: If gold keeps holding above the demand zone and breaks the descending trendline, it may rise to 4,123. The next major target would be 4,222.

Bearish Scenario: If gold fails to hold the demand zone, the bullish setup may invalidate and could lead to further downside toward the next support level.

Technical Indicators: ✔ Demand zone held
✔ Descending trendline resistance
✔ CH&BOS structure
✔ Strong supply zone above

Bitcoin tests the 50-day moving average, a resistance zone, and the resistance line again.

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The recent rebound has been driven by the decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), alongside gains in the S&P 500 and gold.

Can this macro support push Bitcoin to break above $66,000, or is another pullback just around the corner?

Macro outlook:

The fall in the U.S. Dollar Index and the rise in U.S. equities (especially the S&P 500) have supported Bitcoin’s recent uptrend.

Gold’s strength also reflects broader dollar weakness. However, Bitcoin is currently approaching an important technical resistance area, which may limit further upside.

Technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin appears to be completing a bearish Gartley harmonic pattern near the resistance line, which suggests a potential bearish reversal.💡

Educational tip: The bearish Gartley pattern identifies potential reversal zones using specific Fibonacci ratios, but confirmation of the resistance level and the subsequent price action is still crucial.

I expect Bitcoin to resume its downward trend within the next few hours, at least pulling back toward the key trading level near $64,000. If it breaks below $64,000, the correction could extend into the leveraged long-liquidation area.

Trade setup

: First target: $64,000;

Second target: cumulative long liquidation leverage zone ($63,400 - $62,550)

; Stop loss: $65,803 (worst case);

Cumulative short liquidation leverage: $66,100 - $65,200.

Which price do you think Bitcoin will hit first?

🔴 $63,000

🟢 $66,000

📌 Bitcoin analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour chart.🛑

Always practice proper risk management and set a stop loss for each position.🚀