Simon賽門

The CPI data announced the day before yesterday showed the annual increase falling to 3.4%, with core CPI dropping to 2.5%. The monthly increase also rebounded from -0.4% in June to +0.1%. Overall, it was in line with market expectations, so it basically gave the investment market a bit of a boost.

After all, there were some views in the market that there might be a rate hike this year. Once rates are raised, funds in the market tend to move toward safe-haven assets, which is not something investors want to see. On top of that, the stock market has recently experienced a brief pullback, so if the CPI data had also come in weak, it could have led to an even further downward price trend.

Although core inflation has not yet fully returned to the ideal range (1~2%), this pullback in CPI is actually telling us that inflation is no longer running out of control, so the Federal Reserve does not need to rush into another rate hike for now.

As a result, we can see that the stock market has also started to rebound, and some assets even saw very strong recoveries thanks to impressive earnings from some AI companies.

However, in the Bitcoin market, a divergence has emerged, with no obvious rebound. I think this is not only because the data merely met expectations and brought no major surprise,

but mainly because current demand for spot Bitcoin is relatively weak. So if Bitcoin wants to see a strong rebound again, it may still need a stronger catalyst (like the Clarity Act being passed?).

That said, this also reflects how quiet the Bitcoin market is right now. Combined with several indicators indirectly pointing to the possibility that the current stage may already be the late phase of the crypto bear market, could this actually be a good opportunity for investors?

#BTC #cpi

Recently, $SPCX released its financial report. The numbers themselves look very strong. Revenue of $7.81 billion significantly exceeded expectations, growing 92% year over year.

In terms of revenue sources, "Starlink" remains the largest contributor, bringing in $4.29 billion (66% year-over-year growth). Among the three major segments, it is also the only one that is profitable.

Looking at the current revenue mix, the most stable segment is still Starlink. However, although both the AI and rocket segments are currently showing losses, their revenues are still growing: the AI segment is up 247% year over year, and the rocket segment is up 29%.

So perhaps SPXC's current strategy is to use Starlink as the company's primary cash-flow source, and then leverage that steady cash flow to focus on developing the AI and rocket segments. While that is quite burn-intensive, it may also create an opportunity to build a higher growth ceiling.

This is also supported by the company's high spending. Currently, expenditures total $18.4 billion, and about $15.8 billion of that is invested in AI infrastructure.

In addition, company management has said that capital expenditures will remain at a high level over the next two quarters.

However, although from the standpoint of revenue growth alone, the results exceeding expectations should have the effect of encouraging the stock price, the stock has still been trending downward. One of the main reasons appears to be the heavy cost spending.

Basically, investors will definitely worry about its short-term cash flow and whether the returns later will be proportional to the investment. In simple terms: will this future growth be worth the money for us investors?

But from a long-term perspective, if the goal is to enhance the company's own competitiveness and widen the gap versus other peers, this painful period of high capital expenditures will inevitably need to be endured!

Interestingly, after the financial report came out and the stock price had dropped, when the first batch of shares became eligible for sale and the potential selling pressure arrived, the stock price actually bounced back and rose (up nearly 25% from the low point). It seems that the first batch of unlock pressure has not caused investors to panic too much. Some holders still firmly believe in SPXC’s future development (holding steady). With more batches of unlocks still to come, the key will be how the market digests them afterward?

I recently saw that Bitcoin stored in a cold wallet could still be stolen. I think many people’s first thought would be: “Wouldn’t even the coins in a cold wallet get stolen? Isn’t a cold wallet the safest place to store funds?” If it can be stolen, then why use a cold wallet at all?

When encountering a problem, I think it’s still best to trace it back and figure out what exactly caused the coins in the cold wallet to be stolen.

First, our general understanding is that if it’s an offline cold wallet, hackers basically can’t break into it.

However, in this incident, the cold wallet that was targeted is a Coldcard hardware cold wallet (a hardware cold wallet produced by the Canadian company Coinkite, specifically made for storing Bitcoin). The main cause was a bug in the software version: when generating the wallet’s mnemonic seed phrase, there was an issue with the random number generation, producing far fewer bits than the security standards would normally require (at least 128 bits). As a result, it had only 40 to 72 bits, which allowed hackers to use computer calculations to guess the seed phrase and then derive the wallet’s private key. In simple terms, it’s like the “password” was compromised.

As for the stolen Bitcoin, it’s known that there were more than 1,000 coins (at the current market price of roughly $70 million), taken from 1,200 wallets. Most of these wallets had been left unused for years. On the other hand, due to this incident (interestingly, the opposite of what happened after the 2022 FTX collapse—people then moved coins to cold wallets), many investors moved their BTC back to centralized exchanges such as Binance, Kraken, and OKX.

I think this event definitely affects some investors’ confidence in cold wallet security. Honestly, I also use a cold wallet myself (not this brand), and I believe this incident is more of a rare case. But I think it’s also an opportunity to remind us of the importance of diversifying funds—because no matter how secure a place is, there’s still always the possibility of something being overlooked. Even if your cold wallet is secure, you might still forget the seed phrase or private key, and then you may not be able to recover the wallet—so that’s also possible.

#BTC #冷錢包

Not sure if it's because of the market conditions, but it feels like the AI has been picking up some altcoins with pretty high accuracy. Of course, there are still times when it hits a snag.

This time, I successfully bagged $APE , while the failed pick was $TREE (this one took too long to build a position). I feel like coins that can consistently hover around the moving averages are performing quite nicely.

However, most of them don't have particularly strong momentum, so besides taking profits in batches, I think using trailing stops is definitely necessary. Otherwise, after a spike, they can easily start to retrace...

A few days ago, I caught a target using the AI monitoring system ( $CHIP ) that peaked at 0.14, but then it started to pull back.

I was using a trailing stop strategy to lock in some profits, so when it retraced, I got stopped out and only ended up with a portion of the gains.

So the next challenge is to figure out how to optimize this part of my game to help boost my final profits 🧐

Today, the system picked up a small coin ( $KAT ), and now it’s just a matter of watching its performance...

#Aİ #crypto

Bitcoin $BTC hit a peak of 79.4K yesterday but has gradually pulled back since then. It seems like there's some serious selling pressure around 80K, so without a strong breakout, it’s gonna be tough to push above that level.

Looking ahead, if there are any major bearish news in the geopolitical landscape, we might have to dip down and test the waters. Right now, there’s a lot of liquidity packed around 73.5K—will it get cleared out?

Last time we dipped, there was some support holding at 73K, so there’s buying interest in that area too. It’s shaping up to be a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

On the flip side, 80K is a key milestone for determining the trend. If we can break through and hold above, continuous upward movement is possible. But if we sweep through that liquidity and volume starts to drop, then we could be looking at a smoother descent...

#BTC #crypto

Recently set up an AI-driven crypto monitoring system to catch some small caps for short-term contracts,

Currently using "price variation, funding rates, and volume changes" as the main filtering criteria. We'll optimize it later based on the situation,

Initially thought about adding more filters, but after some consideration, I decided to test them one by one to keep things tidy. If any fellow traders have suggestions for filtering criteria, feel free to share, much appreciated!
😁

Today, the system flagged a target ($CHIP ), and I opened a small position, but I was too slow to build it up, so my entry point isn’t great. Not sure how far it can go, but hoping for solid returns!

#Aİ #crypto

After many days, $BTC has once again broken through 78K, clearing a lot of short positions. Can it maintain this momentum and continue to rise?

#BTC #crypto

The recent wave of rebound has allowed MicroStrategy's brother to increase his position of $BTC , resulting in floating profits.

#BTC #crypto

Originally, Old Trump was to hold a second negotiation with Iran, but this reversal happened too quickly. Iran rejected the second negotiation, and the market plummeted again.

This morning, Bitcoin dropped to a low of 74k, but at the same time, it seems there are buy orders stepping in, with the current price falling within the 74~75K range.

Next, it will depend on whether $BTC can stabilize above 73K and 74K, and this will also depend on Old Trump's and Iran's attitudes.

It feels like Old Trump should also soften his stance in due time, as his public dissatisfaction is gradually rising, and there is also the risk of him being overthrown...

#BTC #crypto

I originally thought that the negative impact of Iran's announcement to resume control of the strait would push the Bitcoin price down towards 75k,

but then it turned out that in the evening there was news that Trump would have a second round of negotiations with Iran. I wonder if this news had an impact,

as the price at $BTC held at 75k, and there were even signs of breaking through 76k. The fluctuations are really large,

because many people believe that this 78k was a false breakthrough rebound high point, and are preparing for another decline and adjustment,

but honestly, the key still depends on how Trump handles it. If he does well and Iran calms down, then it is indeed very likely to go towards 80K, after all, there is a lot of air force fuel above...

#BTC #crypto

Didn’t expect old Trump to cause trouble again, but it seems we have long been accustomed to this pattern, which is to act on weekends, with limited market impact,

Currently, $BTC has dropped below 77k, trading around 76k. Although the reaction is not particularly intense, there was originally a dense area of long positions near 76k that could be liquidated, and it has indeed been hunted down,

I wonder if old Trump has any new tricks up his sleeve next week, after all, there is some liquidity around 78k that could be cleared again, and the funding rate is still in negative territory. Perhaps just one piece of news could trigger a short squeeze, so it’s better to be a bit more cautious...

#BTC #crypto

Sure enough, $BTC finally broke through the 78k price level, reaching a high of 78.3k last night, and currently falling back to around 77k, seemingly without much downward trend.

However, the next stage at 80k has greater selling pressure, so we need to see if there is any momentum to support an effective breakthrough.

Additionally, the current funding rate is also negative, so many people are still bearish, which also suggests that there is actually quite a lot of fuel available. Therefore, those who are shorting should still be aware of their own risks...

#BTC #crypto

I didn't expect that just a few days ago I mentioned, $BTC would break 78k so quickly, it seems this main player really knows what they're doing, combined with the news of the Strait's opening just at the right time,

Moreover, as the price moves higher, more people are opening short positions, after all, everyone generally believes the trend is downward, which undoubtedly adds more fuel to the short squeeze, so perhaps 80K or higher will really come...

#BTC #crypto

It seems that the heat of AI narrative is still alive...

This Allbirds (BIRD) was originally just a shoe-selling company, but in recent years, its performance has declined severely, and the company’s stock price was almost on the verge of collapse, dropping to a market value of just a few tens of millions of dollars.

Later, the original shoe-selling business was abandoned, and they directly transformed into a new business of "renting GPUs for AI companies," and renamed themselves NewBird AI. As a result, the stock price skyrocketed several times.

This also reminds me of last year’s cryptocurrency stock narrative, where a bunch of companies were eager to associate with cryptocurrency; however, now the shell has changed to AI. How long can this wave last?

#AI #crypto

As speculated yesterday, Bitcoin broke through 76k last night, and the main force just devoured the liquidity of the short positions at 76K.

There must have been many bearish traders whose stop-losses were set around 76k, directly causing trouble for those who were shorting.

Currently, $BTC there is still a large amount of short positions waiting to be liquidated above 76k, and the fuel is quite sufficient. If things go smoothly, it might even continue to run towards 78k to 80k, who knows?

#BTC #crypto

Bitcoin broke through 7.4k this morning, directly clearing the short liquidity here,

and the crypto market liquidated a total of 180 million USD in shorts today, about twice that of longs,

currently, there is still a dense area at $BTC 7.6K that can be cleared, not sure if there will be an opportunity to reach it?

#BTC #crypto

Big brother finally started to short the market with $BTC !

#BTC #crypto

Most people believe that the market will have another major drop, but some big players have already started hoarding $BTC . Have you started your regular investments yet?

#btc #crypto