作手Trader
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作手Trader
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🔥 Gold cards at the 4000 level! Has the hedging logic failed? $XAU $XAG $BTC
Hey brothers!
Today, July 29, 2026, spot gold is wildly swinging between $4000 and $4050.
By logic: with BTC ranging between 63k–64k, US stocks pulling back from high levels, and tensions in the Middle East, gold—being a safe-haven asset—should surge. So why has it instead retraced more than 25% from the January peak (around $5600) and is still consolidating around the 4000 mark?
Today I’ll break down the logic from a macro and risk-control perspective:
📌 1. Why did the safe-haven logic fail?
1. Interest-rate expectations are the main killer
Middle East tensions drive up oil prices and flare inflation. The market is repricing “the Fed will keep rates high or even hike” (the July FOMC is the focus). Gold is a non-yielding asset—rising real rates skyrocket the cost of holding it, fully offsetting geopolitical buy pressure.
2. A stronger USD and ETF liquidations
Hawkish expectations support the dollar, suppressing buying. Meanwhile, since the January peak, global gold ETFs have seen net outflows of nearly $18 billion, meaning heavy institutional selling pressure.
3. Margin calls
As US stocks and the crypto market pull back, institutions need to replenish margin and are forced to sell gold that has unrealized gains and good liquidity.
📌 2. Why didn’t Chinese buying hold the market up?
Data: China’s central bank increased holdings by 15 tons in June, marking 20 consecutive months of net buying, with reserves reaching 2346 tons; June imports totaled 173 tons.
Why didn’t it stop the fall?
Western derivatives funds (COMEX futures, ETFs) hold short-term pricing power. China’s buying is mostly passive orders around 4000. Physical demand is like “rebar on the floor” to prevent a collapse, but under the double hit of higher real rates and a stronger dollar, it can’t immediately push the trend upward.
📌 3. Technical levels and risk-control rules
📍 The $4000 level: a super psychological line of defense. If the daily chart breaks below 3900, that’s the key risk. If it stabilizes, resistance is seen at 4100 and 4150. Long-term narratives like de-dollarization haven’t changed—right now it’s deep “water being squeezed out.”
Live trading risk control:
1. De-leverage: in high volatility, 90% of people die from going too heavy and getting stabbed by spikes;
2. Watch key indicators: keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index and 10-year real yields;
3. Control by sub-accounts: risk on each trade must be strictly limited to 1%-2% of total principal.
💬 Interactive discussion:
What’s your take on XAU?
Feel free to leave a message in the comments! Like and follow to see through the market’s real truth.
Hey brothers!
Today, July 29, 2026, spot gold is wildly swinging between $4000 and $4050.
By logic: with BTC ranging between 63k–64k, US stocks pulling back from high levels, and tensions in the Middle East, gold—being a safe-haven asset—should surge. So why has it instead retraced more than 25% from the January peak (around $5600) and is still consolidating around the 4000 mark?
Today I’ll break down the logic from a macro and risk-control perspective:
📌 1. Why did the safe-haven logic fail?
1. Interest-rate expectations are the main killer
Middle East tensions drive up oil prices and flare inflation. The market is repricing “the Fed will keep rates high or even hike” (the July FOMC is the focus). Gold is a non-yielding asset—rising real rates skyrocket the cost of holding it, fully offsetting geopolitical buy pressure.
2. A stronger USD and ETF liquidations
Hawkish expectations support the dollar, suppressing buying. Meanwhile, since the January peak, global gold ETFs have seen net outflows of nearly $18 billion, meaning heavy institutional selling pressure.
3. Margin calls
As US stocks and the crypto market pull back, institutions need to replenish margin and are forced to sell gold that has unrealized gains and good liquidity.
📌 2. Why didn’t Chinese buying hold the market up?
Data: China’s central bank increased holdings by 15 tons in June, marking 20 consecutive months of net buying, with reserves reaching 2346 tons; June imports totaled 173 tons.
Why didn’t it stop the fall?
Western derivatives funds (COMEX futures, ETFs) hold short-term pricing power. China’s buying is mostly passive orders around 4000. Physical demand is like “rebar on the floor” to prevent a collapse, but under the double hit of higher real rates and a stronger dollar, it can’t immediately push the trend upward.
📌 3. Technical levels and risk-control rules
📍 The $4000 level: a super psychological line of defense. If the daily chart breaks below 3900, that’s the key risk. If it stabilizes, resistance is seen at 4100 and 4150. Long-term narratives like de-dollarization haven’t changed—right now it’s deep “water being squeezed out.”
Live trading risk control:
1. De-leverage: in high volatility, 90% of people die from going too heavy and getting stabbed by spikes;
2. Watch key indicators: keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index and 10-year real yields;
3. Control by sub-accounts: risk on each trade must be strictly limited to 1%-2% of total principal.
💬 Interactive discussion:
What’s your take on XAU?
Feel free to leave a message in the comments! Like and follow to see through the market’s real truth.
1️⃣ 4000关口坚固，准备抄底
73%
2️⃣ 观望，等待美联储信号
20%
3️⃣ 偏空，可能跌破4000
7%
15 votes • Voting closed
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🎙️ Build the Binance Square, Hold BNB｜Thursday, BTC is back to 63,000 again. This range has been swinging back and forth for a long time—when will the bull market return? Let’s talk
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8.8k
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🚀 $SPCX surges back after a 50% plunge: Is SpaceX a real turnaround, or an IPO hype trap?
SPCX went public on June 12 at $135. After listing, it jumped to around $225, then quickly pulled back. On August 3, it hit a low of $104.85. In just two months, SpaceX has gone through a rise, a correction, and a repricing.
As of 00:00 on August 12, 2026 (UTC+8), SPCX is quoted at $134.89, trading in a tight range around the IPO price.
Recent market focus: The stock has rebounded sharply from the low point; after the first lock-up period expired, there hasn’t been sustained large-scale selling.
So the question is: is this a true return to value, or just a rebound rally?
Q2 earnings: SpaceX is changing its market positioning.
What the market is paying attention to is no longer just rockets, but “space + satellite internet + AI infrastructure.”
Earnings highlights: Revenue $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year; adjusted EBITDA $3.5 billion, up 191% year over year; net loss narrowed; Starlink continues to grow; AI business is becoming a new growth direction.
Previously, the market mainly focused on the rocket business. Now investors are watching Starship’s commercial value, Starlink’s market potential, and the demand for AI infrastructure.
Why is the stock rebounding?
First, IPO panic has eased. Early after the IPO, funds chased the price higher; then profit-takers exited. The correction released pressure, and capital re-evaluated value.
Second, the lock-up expiration pressure is lower than expected. The market worried about heavy selling, but there hasn’t been sustained dumping—suggesting strong buy-side absorption.
Third, the AI thesis is getting attention again. SpaceX has advantages in satellite communications, global coverage, and space technology, leading the market to assign a growth premium.
Risks:
Valuation is still high and growth must be continuously delivered; AI investment is substantial—profit conversion needs to be watched; future share releases may bring near-term volatility.
Technical levels:
Support: $130–$135. Resistance: $150.
If it breaks above $150, the market could keep strengthening. If it falls below $130, be cautious about another pullback.
My view: SpaceX’s long-term growth logic is strong, but a great company doesn’t mean every price is worth chasing. The most important thing in trading isn’t predicting the top and bottom—it’s waiting for a better risk-to-reward setup. Chasing during a rally can easily make you the bag holder. After a pullback confirms, you may have more initiative.
What do you think about SPCX? Do you see long-term value in SpaceX, or do you believe the valuation is too high?
Feel free to discuss in the comments.
SPCX went public on June 12 at $135. After listing, it jumped to around $225, then quickly pulled back. On August 3, it hit a low of $104.85. In just two months, SpaceX has gone through a rise, a correction, and a repricing.
As of 00:00 on August 12, 2026 (UTC+8), SPCX is quoted at $134.89, trading in a tight range around the IPO price.
Recent market focus: The stock has rebounded sharply from the low point; after the first lock-up period expired, there hasn’t been sustained large-scale selling.
So the question is: is this a true return to value, or just a rebound rally?
Q2 earnings: SpaceX is changing its market positioning.
What the market is paying attention to is no longer just rockets, but “space + satellite internet + AI infrastructure.”
Earnings highlights: Revenue $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year; adjusted EBITDA $3.5 billion, up 191% year over year; net loss narrowed; Starlink continues to grow; AI business is becoming a new growth direction.
Previously, the market mainly focused on the rocket business. Now investors are watching Starship’s commercial value, Starlink’s market potential, and the demand for AI infrastructure.
Why is the stock rebounding?
First, IPO panic has eased. Early after the IPO, funds chased the price higher; then profit-takers exited. The correction released pressure, and capital re-evaluated value.
Second, the lock-up expiration pressure is lower than expected. The market worried about heavy selling, but there hasn’t been sustained dumping—suggesting strong buy-side absorption.
Third, the AI thesis is getting attention again. SpaceX has advantages in satellite communications, global coverage, and space technology, leading the market to assign a growth premium.
Risks:
Valuation is still high and growth must be continuously delivered; AI investment is substantial—profit conversion needs to be watched; future share releases may bring near-term volatility.
Technical levels:
Support: $130–$135. Resistance: $150.
If it breaks above $150, the market could keep strengthening. If it falls below $130, be cautious about another pullback.
My view: SpaceX’s long-term growth logic is strong, but a great company doesn’t mean every price is worth chasing. The most important thing in trading isn’t predicting the top and bottom—it’s waiting for a better risk-to-reward setup. Chasing during a rally can easily make you the bag holder. After a pullback confirms, you may have more initiative.
What do you think about SPCX? Do you see long-term value in SpaceX, or do you believe the valuation is too high?
Feel free to discuss in the comments.
$OPENAI Multi-lot longs partially close first, and the remaining position continues to strive for higher profits.$BTC $ZEC
Trading for 8 years—why I’m not predicting OPENAI’s top and bottom this time?
Brothers, hi—I'm an old friend of yours with 8 years of trading experience.
Recently, many people have been discussing: “Can the OPENAI contract still go up? Is 1000 the bottom?”
The price has fallen from 1630 to 1017. Many people got trapped around 1400 and are anxious at the 1000 level. But instead of talking about up or down, I’d rather discuss this: why losses often don’t come from getting the direction wrong—they come from over-believing predictions?
After 8 years of experience, I’ve learned: nobody can predict the market 100%. What survives are those who have good risk management.
1. Why the more you predict, the easier it is to lose money?
Retail traders: predict ➔ over-allocate ➔ wait to prove yourself
Professionals: accept uncertainty ➔ control risk ➔ wait for the market to give the answer
When it drops to 1000, many people think, “Since it once reached 1630, it must be able to go back.” But the market won’t rise according to your cost basis. The most dangerous thing to say in trading is: “It’s dropped so much—so it should rebound.”
2. Why have the OPENAI contracts pulled back?
1. IPO expectations cool off: a delayed listing compresses the premium.
2. Valuation reversion: 1630 corresponded to a valuation of 1.63 trillion; the market has shifted to focusing on commercialization and compute costs—good companies ≠ endless upside.
3. Earnings re-evaluation: shifting from “AI will win” to focusing on how much value is created in practice.
3. Contingency plans for professional traders
I don’t predict price moves; I only prepare scenarios:
📍 The 1000 level: the gatekeeping position for a trillion-level valuation. If selling pressure fades on volume and it stabilizes, there may be a rebound in the near term.
📍 The 850–880 zone: corresponds to approximate $852B institutional cost lines in the primary market. If it breaks below 1000, you need to be prepared for a deeper dip toward this area.
4. Survival rules for high-volatility assets
1. Reduce leverage: often, even when your direction is right, high leverage can’t withstand volatility.
2. Don’t go all-in: protecting principal is always first.
3. Build positions in stages: set up multiple long scenarios—don’t bet on winning or losing in one shot.
5. Advice for friends holding positions
When facing a drawdown, don’t rush to think about getting back to breakeven. First check: Is the leverage safe? Can you withstand further downside? Do you have extreme-case plans?
Trading is running a business. Only by controlling risk can you stay at the table. The market always rewards those who last.
💬 What do you think about OPENAI contracts right now?
Feel free to discuss in the comments!
(Disclaimer: This is only shared experience and does not constitute investment advice. Contract risk is high—please manage risk properly.)
Brothers, hi—I'm an old friend of yours with 8 years of trading experience.
Recently, many people have been discussing: “Can the OPENAI contract still go up? Is 1000 the bottom?”
The price has fallen from 1630 to 1017. Many people got trapped around 1400 and are anxious at the 1000 level. But instead of talking about up or down, I’d rather discuss this: why losses often don’t come from getting the direction wrong—they come from over-believing predictions?
After 8 years of experience, I’ve learned: nobody can predict the market 100%. What survives are those who have good risk management.
1. Why the more you predict, the easier it is to lose money?
Retail traders: predict ➔ over-allocate ➔ wait to prove yourself
Professionals: accept uncertainty ➔ control risk ➔ wait for the market to give the answer
When it drops to 1000, many people think, “Since it once reached 1630, it must be able to go back.” But the market won’t rise according to your cost basis. The most dangerous thing to say in trading is: “It’s dropped so much—so it should rebound.”
2. Why have the OPENAI contracts pulled back?
1. IPO expectations cool off: a delayed listing compresses the premium.
2. Valuation reversion: 1630 corresponded to a valuation of 1.63 trillion; the market has shifted to focusing on commercialization and compute costs—good companies ≠ endless upside.
3. Earnings re-evaluation: shifting from “AI will win” to focusing on how much value is created in practice.
3. Contingency plans for professional traders
I don’t predict price moves; I only prepare scenarios:
📍 The 1000 level: the gatekeeping position for a trillion-level valuation. If selling pressure fades on volume and it stabilizes, there may be a rebound in the near term.
📍 The 850–880 zone: corresponds to approximate $852B institutional cost lines in the primary market. If it breaks below 1000, you need to be prepared for a deeper dip toward this area.
4. Survival rules for high-volatility assets
1. Reduce leverage: often, even when your direction is right, high leverage can’t withstand volatility.
2. Don’t go all-in: protecting principal is always first.
3. Build positions in stages: set up multiple long scenarios—don’t bet on winning or losing in one shot.
5. Advice for friends holding positions
When facing a drawdown, don’t rush to think about getting back to breakeven. First check: Is the leverage safe? Can you withstand further downside? Do you have extreme-case plans?
Trading is running a business. Only by controlling risk can you stay at the table. The market always rewards those who last.
💬 What do you think about OPENAI contracts right now?
Feel free to discuss in the comments!
(Disclaimer: This is only shared experience and does not constitute investment advice. Contract risk is high—please manage risk properly.)
1️⃣ 持有等反弹
59%
2️⃣ 已减仓控杠杆
8%
3️⃣ 观望等850-1000信号
33%
24 votes • Voting closed
300x PE vs 5x PB! Changxin Tech (688825): is it the next 10-bagger in AI storage, or just a bag-holder?
Family members, the biggest IPO in the A-share market this year—Changxin Tech—has priced at 8.66 yuan, valuing it at 580-666 billion. The whole internet was screaming for above one trillion before; now at this price, is it an undervalued alpha, or are we buying at a high-price handoff? Let’s look directly at hard-core data:
[Valuation extremes are wildly split]
From a PE perspective, it’s ridiculously expensive: the offering PE is stretched to 308–313x! Samsung is 33x, Hynix 30x, Micron 62x. Just by earnings pace, Changxin is priced way too high.
From a PB perspective, it’s shockingly cheap: the offering PB is only 4.78–5.06x. Meanwhile Hynix is 10.9x and Micron 16.7x. This means hard assets—plant, lithography machines, etc.—are seriously undervalued.
[Profit curve literally takes off]
In the first two years, accumulated losses exceeded 23.4 billion. Then, when the 2025 AI memory cycle kicked in, it turned profitable. Even more outrageous is 2026 Q1:
Revenue was 50.8 billion (YoY +719%), and attributable net profit was 24.762 billion (a near-17x surge)!
Latest official guidance: estimated net profit for H1 2026 is as high as 50–57 billion!
If 2H can maintain this momentum, full-year profit could break 100 billion, and the dynamic valuation would be hammered back to single digits. This AI-driven demand for compute-storage is essentially a “Bitcoin halving”-level catalyst for the storage sector.
[Top-tier whales go all-in—clear tell]
Alibaba Cloud: strategic allocation locks shares for 36 months!
Industrial capital: Meituan-related, NIO, ZTE, Chery—each locked for 18 months.
Private fund giants: Fangfang Quant (controlled by Liang Wenfeng) has 153 private fund products, going after the IPO at crazy premiums.
With the national team + industrial capital + top quant all onboard, the tradable float is extremely scarce.
[High-risk reminder]
DRAM is a pure “cycle king.” AI demand is indeed strong right now, but once future capacity overshoots and supply becomes excessive, price pullbacks will be brutal. Then the high PE will explode all at once—typical of a high-volatility cycle-driven track.
Now market sentiment is clearly split: some think this is a milestone in AI storage, while others worry it’s a celebration at the peak of the cycle.
Brothers, what do you think? Will it surge and double on opening, or surge then fade? Do we keep chasing long, or wait for a pullback to get onboard again?
Drop your real thoughts and your [target price] in the comments! 👇$MU $BTC
Family members, the biggest IPO in the A-share market this year—Changxin Tech—has priced at 8.66 yuan, valuing it at 580-666 billion. The whole internet was screaming for above one trillion before; now at this price, is it an undervalued alpha, or are we buying at a high-price handoff? Let’s look directly at hard-core data:
[Valuation extremes are wildly split]
From a PE perspective, it’s ridiculously expensive: the offering PE is stretched to 308–313x! Samsung is 33x, Hynix 30x, Micron 62x. Just by earnings pace, Changxin is priced way too high.
From a PB perspective, it’s shockingly cheap: the offering PB is only 4.78–5.06x. Meanwhile Hynix is 10.9x and Micron 16.7x. This means hard assets—plant, lithography machines, etc.—are seriously undervalued.
[Profit curve literally takes off]
In the first two years, accumulated losses exceeded 23.4 billion. Then, when the 2025 AI memory cycle kicked in, it turned profitable. Even more outrageous is 2026 Q1:
Revenue was 50.8 billion (YoY +719%), and attributable net profit was 24.762 billion (a near-17x surge)!
Latest official guidance: estimated net profit for H1 2026 is as high as 50–57 billion!
If 2H can maintain this momentum, full-year profit could break 100 billion, and the dynamic valuation would be hammered back to single digits. This AI-driven demand for compute-storage is essentially a “Bitcoin halving”-level catalyst for the storage sector.
[Top-tier whales go all-in—clear tell]
Alibaba Cloud: strategic allocation locks shares for 36 months!
Industrial capital: Meituan-related, NIO, ZTE, Chery—each locked for 18 months.
Private fund giants: Fangfang Quant (controlled by Liang Wenfeng) has 153 private fund products, going after the IPO at crazy premiums.
With the national team + industrial capital + top quant all onboard, the tradable float is extremely scarce.
[High-risk reminder]
DRAM is a pure “cycle king.” AI demand is indeed strong right now, but once future capacity overshoots and supply becomes excessive, price pullbacks will be brutal. Then the high PE will explode all at once—typical of a high-volatility cycle-driven track.
Now market sentiment is clearly split: some think this is a milestone in AI storage, while others worry it’s a celebration at the peak of the cycle.
Brothers, what do you think? Will it surge and double on opening, or surge then fade? Do we keep chasing long, or wait for a pullback to get onboard again?
Drop your real thoughts and your [target price] in the comments! 👇$MU $BTC
$ONDO Multiple long positions have been closed in batches, bringing a 65 profit and 4 loss so far. Currently holding no positions and waiting patiently for the next high-quality entry signal. $BTC #2026足球风潮
Verified
Tonight 20:30 CPI showdown! Practical scripts for U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies
Brothers, tonight at 20:30 the U.S. will release the June CPI—this could be the most impactful piece of data recently for both U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies! Current market consensus is as follows:
🔹 Headline CPI: Forecast 3.8%-3.9% (Previous 4.2%)
🔹 Core CPI: Forecast 2.9% (Previous 2.9%)
⚠️ Key reminder: Headline data may look like inflation is cooling because of a sharp drop in oil prices, but the Federal Reserve is truly focused on core CPI—the key factor that determines the direction for bulls or bears.
📊 Three-scenario practical simulation
【Scenario A: Core CPI < 2.8% (Clearly below forecast, bullish)】
* Market reaction: Rate-cut expectations surge quickly; U.S. stocks (especially the Nasdaq) are likely to rally strongly, and BTC is likely to break upward out of the current range.
* Response strategy: After the data confirms, take a right-side momentum long; add to mainstream coins in batches.
【Scenario B: Core CPI around 2.9% (In line with expectations; high probability of both sides getting hit)】
* Market reaction: Headline data cools, but core doesn’t improve—there will likely be a clear split in the market. A sharp series of needle moves is likely; after repeatedly washing bulls and bears, price will probably revert to a range-bound consolidation.
* Response strategy: 15 minutes before the release, it’s recommended to clear high-leverage exposure. Wait for the needle moves to stabilize before considering an entry.
【Scenario C: Core CPI ≥ 3.0% (Above forecast, bearish)】
* Market reaction: Signals of inflation re-accelerating; U.S. stocks are likely to pull back. The U.S. dollar strengthens, and BTC is prone to panic-like retracements, testing strong support below.
* Response strategy: Keep emotions in check—don’t blindly bottom-fish. Prioritize laying out plans only after a clear price-stabilization signal.
🛡️ Risk-control iron rule
Data-driven moves are the easiest to make people impulsive. It’s recommended to trade only right-side setups after the data lands, strictly control position sizing, and set your stop-loss. Those who try to guess the direction in advance are often the ones who lose the most.
💬 Which scenario are you leaning toward tonight?
Feel free to vote or share your view in the comments! After the data comes out, I’ll also keep updating my real-time thoughts in the comments.#币安九周年
Brothers, tonight at 20:30 the U.S. will release the June CPI—this could be the most impactful piece of data recently for both U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies! Current market consensus is as follows:
🔹 Headline CPI: Forecast 3.8%-3.9% (Previous 4.2%)
🔹 Core CPI: Forecast 2.9% (Previous 2.9%)
⚠️ Key reminder: Headline data may look like inflation is cooling because of a sharp drop in oil prices, but the Federal Reserve is truly focused on core CPI—the key factor that determines the direction for bulls or bears.
📊 Three-scenario practical simulation
【Scenario A: Core CPI < 2.8% (Clearly below forecast, bullish)】
* Market reaction: Rate-cut expectations surge quickly; U.S. stocks (especially the Nasdaq) are likely to rally strongly, and BTC is likely to break upward out of the current range.
* Response strategy: After the data confirms, take a right-side momentum long; add to mainstream coins in batches.
【Scenario B: Core CPI around 2.9% (In line with expectations; high probability of both sides getting hit)】
* Market reaction: Headline data cools, but core doesn’t improve—there will likely be a clear split in the market. A sharp series of needle moves is likely; after repeatedly washing bulls and bears, price will probably revert to a range-bound consolidation.
* Response strategy: 15 minutes before the release, it’s recommended to clear high-leverage exposure. Wait for the needle moves to stabilize before considering an entry.
【Scenario C: Core CPI ≥ 3.0% (Above forecast, bearish)】
* Market reaction: Signals of inflation re-accelerating; U.S. stocks are likely to pull back. The U.S. dollar strengthens, and BTC is prone to panic-like retracements, testing strong support below.
* Response strategy: Keep emotions in check—don’t blindly bottom-fish. Prioritize laying out plans only after a clear price-stabilization signal.
🛡️ Risk-control iron rule
Data-driven moves are the easiest to make people impulsive. It’s recommended to trade only right-side setups after the data lands, strictly control position sizing, and set your stop-loss. Those who try to guess the direction in advance are often the ones who lose the most.
💬 Which scenario are you leaning toward tonight?
Feel free to vote or share your view in the comments! After the data comes out, I’ll also keep updating my real-time thoughts in the comments.#币安九周年
A. 核心CPI低于预期（看多）
49%
B. 符合预期（震荡观望）
11%
C. 高于预期（看空）
40%
111 votes • Voting closed
$XRP closed half the long position, and then made another attempt with the remaining position.$BTC #摩根士丹利增持1000枚BTC #XRP活跃钱包数创年内次低
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