作手Trader

Weekend chat

#股票财报季 $BNB Close part of the long positions first to reduce overall position risk, and continue holding the remaining position.

#股票财报季
🔥 Google is nearing a key support level! AI spending is taking its toll—can $314.90 hold?


After the U.S. market closes on October 28, Google (GOOGL) will release its Q3 earnings report. But the stock has already fallen for four straight days, closing at $320.21—just about 1.7% above its July low of $314.90.

Earnings are growing, so why are investors rushing for the exits?

📊 1. The key fundamental tension: AI spending is out of control!

The alarming figures from last quarter:
• Q2 capital expenditures surged to $44.9 billion.
• Free cash flow unusually turned negative (around -$5.9 billion).
• Full-year capital expenditure guidance was raised to $195–205 billion.

What’s more, CEO Pichai recently admitted that, to meet the computing needs of internal AI research and development, the company sometimes has to forgo short-term revenue from some external cloud customers.
The market’s position is clear: I don’t care how much revenue grows—I want to know when these massive AI investments will translate into real profits and cash flow!

🎯 2. Trading plan: Keep a close eye on $314.90—don’t catch a falling knife

With the stock falling to a key level ahead of earnings, don’t try to call the bottom. I have just three possible scenarios:

📌 Scenario 1: A decisive break below $314.90
If the stock breaks below this level on heavy volume and can’t quickly recover, that means support has turned into resistance. I won’t try to catch a falling knife—I’ll stay on the sidelines.

📌 Scenario 2: A false breakdown / reversal back above the low
If the stock dips below $314.90, triggers panic selling, then quickly surges back above it on heavy volume, I’ll wait for it to break through near-term resistance and hold on a retest before considering a small long position.

📌 Scenario 3: Positive earnings, but the stock fails to gain ground
If the earnings figures are good but the stock rallies and then pulls back, it means investors are still worried about cash flow. Don’t force a bullish trade just because the fundamentals look good—let the market establish a stable pattern first.

Don’t call the bottom or gamble on the numbers. Breakout → retest → hold → then follow.

🔥 What do you think Google will do after earnings?

A. Holds $314.90 and rebounds 🚀
B. Breaks below decisively and keeps falling 📉
C. Good news is priced in; rallies, then pulls back ☕
D. Not betting on earnings—waiting for confirmation 🛡️

Comment A/B/C/D and share your plan! 👇

(This is my personal review and does not constitute investment advice. U.S. stocks are highly volatile, so manage risk carefully.)

#股票财报季
🔥 META revenue surges 26%, yet the stock plunges? 686 gives way, and traders are fixated on the 537 support line!

Meta's Q3 earnings are out, and the market has voted with its feet: revenue surged 26%, yet the stock took a sharp hit, decisively breaking below $686.
With results this strong, why are investors dumping the stock?

📊 1. The real reason behind the sell-off: a $10 billion fine and an “AI money pit”

On the surface, operating income plunged 37%, but that includes nearly $10 billion in legal fines. Excluding that, Meta's core advertising business is still a cash-printing machine.

What is Wall Street really worried about?
1. An AI money pit: The company expects capital expenditures to reach as much as $145 billion next year, sending Q3 free cash flow into negative territory.
2. Fundraising warning: The company suddenly announced plans to create non-voting Class C shares. That's a clear signal to the market: to fund AI, it may well need to raise capital frequently in the future.

Revenue is rising, but cash flow is deteriorating—so a valuation reset is inevitable!

🎯 2. Breaking down the PA structure: 686 has broken; 537 will be the real test

On the daily chart, the $648 closing price has completely invalidated the previous breakout structure.
📌 $686 (previous high): The bulls' position has been lost. What was once “strong support” has now turned into “strong resistance.”
📌 $537 (the starting point of the rally): The bottom of a major previous trading range. If selling pressure persists, this will be the next area worth watching for its risk-reward potential—but it is by no means a guaranteed floor.

⚠️ 3. My right-side trading plan: Don't catch a falling knife halfway down

I don't try to call the bottom. I only trade two high-conviction right-side setups:
【Scenario 1】A rebound gets rejected at 686: If the price rallies to 686 and stalls or forms a long upper wick, confirming resistance, look for a short entry on the right side.
【Scenario 2】A drop to 537 stabilizes: If a downward spike flushes out panic selling, then rebounds on heavy volume, confirming that selling pressure has dried up, consider a long entry on the right side.
【Scenario 3】Choppy trading in between: With no clear signal, stay flat and wait.

Don't chase the first big bullish candle. Breakout → pullback → hold → follow through.
Let the market provide the answer instead of trying to predict it.

Where do you think META goes from here?

Leave a comment: A/B/C/D, and share your trading plan 👇

(The above is a personal trade review and does not constitute investment advice. U.S. stocks are highly volatile, so manage risk carefully.)

$BNB This morning, this base copy was done well; I'd give it 80 points.#Strategy增持250枚比特币

Guys, buy the dip in batches $BNB .

Guys, $BNB I bought the dip in batches. #比特币跌破8.4万美元

$BNB A long entry signal has appeared; reference take-profit price: 806#比特币冲击8.7万美元遇阻回落

$TAO multiple-lot longs have already taken profit in batches; wait patiently for the next high-quality entry signal. Pay attention to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data released tonight at 20:30.#非农数据来袭

🔥 Tonight 20:30: Big US Jobs Report test! BTC stuck in the 86k danger zone—watch out for the “good news” killer!

#非农数据 $GOOGL $BTC

Tonight at 20:30, the US will release the September jobs report (expected: 900k employed / unemployment rate 4.1%). Right now, BTC is trapped in the 86,400 danger zone, just one step away from the prior high of 87,401. The real thing to watch isn’t “90k,” but how much the actual figure beats (or misses) expectations.

📊 I. Historical recap: Does the better the data, the more it gets killed?
Recap of August’s jobs report: actual 162k vs expected 56k. After the data hit, BTC quickly plunged, directly breaking through $80k.
Underlying logic: Strong employment → rate-cut expectations weaken → the dollar/UST drain liquidity → BTC bears the pressure and gets sold.

🎯 II. Three possible right-side scenarios tonight
Scenario 1: Jobs report far above expectations (bearish selloff)
If employment is well above 90k, and BTC quickly dumps, first watch 84,350. If it continues with strong volume, lock onto the key support resistance area at 82,828. Only consider going long if volume dries up and price stabilizes.

Scenario 2: Jobs report below expectations (bullish breakout)
Employment cools off, and the market trades more loosely. If BTC breaks out above 87,401 on volume, then retests and confirms it won’t break, follow the move.

Scenario 3: Data is extremely strong, but BTC doesn’t fall (strong continuation)
If the jobs report blows the numbers out but BTC holds 86,400 or even pushes higher, it shows the price is absorbing macro-negative news strongly. The market may have priced in some of the downside already (Priced in). But don’t blindly chase longs—the signal is still: breakout → retest → hold/doesn’t break → enter.

💡 III. Trader discipline: At 20:29, never gamble with blind boxes
Everyone is betting on direction/size, but I only let price action provide the answer.
Downside defense: 84,350 → 82,828
Upside breakout: 87,401 → breakout retest

Data is the catalyst; the price structure is the trading signal. Don’t guess the data—wait for the breakout, wait for the retest, wait for confirmation!

After tonight’s jobs report, where will BTC go?
A. Data beats expectations—breaks 82828 and drops 📉
B. Data cools off—breaks 87401 and rallies 🚀
C. Macro bearishness already priced in—watch for bounce/hold signals 💎
D. Don’t gamble—wait for right-side confirmation 🛡️

Comment A / B / C / D! 👇

🔥 MU’s earnings report blind box tonight! History has repeatedly seen “heaven-earth needles.” Stare at 1033 and 1101—never bet on the first K-line!

Tonight after the US market closes, Micron (MU) will release its FY2026 Q4 earnings report.

The market currently expects revenue of about $51 billion and an adjusted EPS of about $31.5. But I think what truly matters tonight isn’t the Q4 numbers themselves, but:
HBM4 progress, and demand plus guidance for 2027.

📊 I. First look at history: earnings = high-volatility blind box

$MU After the last 4 earnings reports, the next-day price action was:
• June 2026: +15.74%
• March 2026: -3.78%
• December 2025: +10.21%
• September 2025: -2.82%

Over the past 11 quarters, it’s been 5 up and 6 down.

So there’s an important rule in earnings trading: beating expectations doesn’t necessarily mean the stock price will rise; what truly determines direction is “how much it beat by.”

This time, the market’s main focus is HBM4 mass production, AI storage demand, and 2027 pricing plus supply/demand.
Currently, analysts are split on the next phase too: some believe storage tightness driven by AI could continue into 2027, while others worry storage prices may hit a turning point in 2027.

🎯 II. My trading scenario: lock in 1033 and 1101

Now take a look at the MU contracts I’m watching on the GATE order board:
Upper band resistance: 1101
Lower band support: 1033

So my trading idea tonight is very simple:
1️⃣ If the earnings report and guidance clearly beat expectations and we break above 1101 on strong volume, I won’t chase the first K-line—I’ll wait for a pullback to confirm.
2️⃣ If it breaks below 1033 on strong volume, I won’t rush to buy the dip; I’ll first watch whether 1033 can regain and hold.
3️⃣ If after the report there are both upward and downward wicks and price ultimately returns to the 1033–1101 range, I’ll choose to stay on the sidelines.

🔥 Summary

Earnings are the fundamentals; price reaction is the trading signal.

I won’t bet on the first K-line. I only do: break → pull back → don’t break → then follow.

Tonight’s real question isn’t how much MU earned in Q4, but:
Does the market believe the AI storage super-cycle can still extend into 2027?

What’s your take on MU’s showdown tonight?

Comment A / B / C / D👇

*(For discussion only—does not constitute investment advice.)*

🔥 Public companies buy another 2,305 BTC in a week! Strategy holdings: 846,000 BTC—how long can the coin-hoarding flywheel keep turning?

Last week, Strategy and Strive collectively increased their holdings by 2,305 BTC. Strategy now holds 846,000 BTC, while Strive has 26,355 BTC. In total, publicly listed companies worldwide hold about 1.273 million BTC.
Many people see this number and immediately think: public companies are crazily hoarding coins—BTC will definitely keep rising in the long run.
But I’m more focused on one question:
Is Strategy’s “financing → buy BTC → stock price rises → keep financing” flywheel truly a perpetual engine?
Strategy’s playbook is actually very clear: it raises funds through issuing new shares, preferred stock, debt, and other methods, then puts that capital into BTC. As long as the market is willing to give MSTR a higher valuation premium relative to BTC, the company can more easily keep financing and keep buying coins.
That’s also why when MSTR rises, it often clearly outperforms BTC.
But the flywheel isn’t a perpetual motion machine.
Once BTC falls, or the market starts compressing MSTR’s premium relative to its BTC assets, the company’s financing capacity may decline—and MSTR could even experience a larger drawdown than BTC.
Moreover, Strategy has already sold BTC this year and executed actions like topping up its USD reserves. This precisely shows: companies hoard coins—they don’t only buy and never sell.
So when I look at MSTR now, I don’t just focus on “how many more BTC it bought.” I look at four things:
BTC trend, MSTR’s relative strength versus BTC, MSTR’s valuation premium, and the stock’s technical structure.
My trading logic is also simple:
When BTC strengthens → MSTR is stronger → break out → pullback and confirmation—then consider right-side opportunities.
If BTC is rising but MSTR is clearly lagging BTC, or the premium is contracting quickly, I’ll become more cautious.
My core view:
Public companies hoarding BTC is becoming an increasingly important capital allocation strategy. But what’s truly worth studying isn’t “who buys more”—it’s this:
Can these companies ultimately convert “holding BTC” into “increasing value per share”?
So BTC is the core asset; MSTR is a high-beta BTC tool with capital structure.
What do you think?

*(For discussion only. Not investment advice.)*

🔥 ORCL plunges 60% in one year! With $66.4B RPO, even that can’t stop the pullback—what exactly is the market trading in the AI sector?

Trading to watch: $ORCL $BTC $TAO

Oracle (ORCL) closed on September 26 at $137.10. If we calculate from the all-time high of $345.72 set on September 10, 2025, the maximum drawdown is about 60.34%.

Strangely, Oracle’s AI business hasn’t fallen apart:
Q1 revenue was $19.3B, up 30% year-over-year; cloud infrastructure revenue was $7.4B, up 121%; RPO reached $66.4B, and the company delivered more than 300,000 GPUs.

So why is the stock down so much?
I think the market is no longer trading the question of whether there is demand for AI—it’s trading this instead:
When will AI orders truly turn into cash flow and profits?

📊 I. AI demand is real, but the investment is huge

Oracle’s operating cash flow this quarter was about $23.1B, but capital expenditures were $28.5B. Free cash flow was roughly -$5.4B.
At the same time, the company raised about $19.9B through an ATM program.

This suggests the AI cloud battle is entering a phase of “heavy reinvestment.” There are plenty of orders, but that doesn’t mean profits will show up immediately.

⚠️ II. What does this mean for AI in crypto?

I won’t conclude the AI track is over just because ORCL is down 60%. But it at least reminds us:

If a tech giant with real customers, real revenue, and $66.4B in RPO starts facing market tests of capital expenditures and cash flow, then AI tokens in crypto—especially those with high FDV but lacking real protocol revenue—also need to face equally brutal valuation scrutiny.

For the future of AI/DePIN, I care more about: real users, real compute demand, and real protocol revenue.
Not just looking at the two words “AI.”

💡 III. My trading thesis

The long-term AI trend hasn’t ended, but the market may be shifting from “telling stories” to “looking for realization.”
So I’ll focus on:

1. ORCL: whether AI cloud revenue can keep growing at a high speed, and when capex will translate into cash flow;
2. Crypto AI: whether the project truly has a real revenue loop;
3. BTC: whether, after macro liquidity is drained, funds continue to concentrate in large-cap defensive assets.

🔥 My core view

AI isn’t over, but the pure AI narrative is undergoing cash-flow validation.

$GOOGL has already taken profit at 363, and then it dropped again. I’m currently staying in cash and waiting patiently for the next high-quality entry signal.#AI股持续上涨还有哪些投资机会 #比特币突破8.7万美元创八个月新高

The $GOOGL long positions I shared during last night’s live stream are already up. You can see the target price at 363.#比特币突破8.5万美元

$NVDA long positions have been closed in batches; currently holding a flat position and observing. Remain patient and wait for the next high-quality entry signal.#比特币突破8万美元大关

🔥 Tonight 02:00 Fed decision! Rate hikes could dip first then rise; an unexpected hold could lead to a big surge. Where will $BTC go tonight? #美联储加息是否已成定局


At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the Fed will release its interest rate decision and the dot plot, with speeches by Warsh at 2:30.
Currently the market is pricing in a 25bp rate hike of about 92%—93%, with the target rate expected to rise to around 3.75%—4.00%. So I think the hike itself has already been largely priced in by the market.
In the past stretch, PPI has been stronger than expected, core CPI came in above forecasts, oil prices are up, and U.S. Treasury yields have been at high levels. On top of that, yesterday’s CLARITY Act procedural vote failed to move forward, and the market has been continuously digesting negative news.
So tonight I’m mainly watching two scenarios.
First: Hike 25bp as expected.
I actually think BTC’s first move could be a drop.
If the dot plot doesn’t show a clearly more hawkish surprise, after the market completes the emotional release, it may return to trading the idea of “is this the last hike?”, and combined with Warsh’s remarks not further strengthening hawkish expectations, BTC could rebound.
Second: Unexpectedly no rate hike.
Since the market has already priced in a 92%—93% chance of a hike, the biggest change would be the “expectations gap.”
If the market believes inflation pressure is easing and policy will turn more accommodative in the future, BTC and U.S. stocks could rally quickly.
But if the market interprets “no hike” as new risks appearing in the economy or financial markets, it could also see a first wave of sharp volatility.
So tonight you can’t only look at whether there is a hike—what really matters is:
What the dot plot says, and what Warsh says.
My trading plan:
A small-position long can continue to be observed, but I don’t plan to add heavily before the decision.
If BTC sharply drops after a hike as expected, I would rather wait for an opportunity.
What I’d like to see is:
Sharp drop → longs get liquidated and releases pressure → price stops falling → second retest holds and doesn’t break → OI stabilizes.
Once this kind of structure appears, then consider adding on the right-side.
If price keeps making new lows while OI rises again, I won’t just blindly buy the dip just because it has fallen a lot.
My core view:
The 25bp hike has already been priced in. What hasn’t been fully priced tonight is the dot plot and Warsh’s remarks.
So I’m more focused on whether, after the negative news is “priced in,” there’s still fresh selling pressure.
How do you think BTC will move tonight?