🧭 VVV favors a brief short-liquidation sweep toward 25.25–25.45 first. This cluster is closer to price than dense longs below, but shorts become scattered afterward, offering less fuel for a sustained rally.
🔺 The first target is 24.95–25.05, followed by 25.25–25.45. Clearing and holding above 25.45 shifts focus to 25.8–26.0, then the more distant 27.1–27.45 zone.
🔻 Cumulative longs still outweigh shorts, concentrated mainly at 22.55–23.45, with prominent peaks near 22.7 and 23.1. An upside sweep alone would not confirm a bullish reversal; downside liquidation exposure remains.
⚖️ The key after the sweep is whether VVV holds above 25.25. Reaching 25.45 and falling below 25.25 weakens the extension scenario. Losing 23.9 first undermines the nearby short-sweep view and shifts attention to 23.27–23.45, then 22.55–23.1.
SC02 H4 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 12.90% wide. The downtrend has lasted 103 days, with a maximum recorded price decline of 89.91%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 1.26% wide. The downtrend has lasted 4 hours 26 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 14.29%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
🧭 DOT favors an upside short-liquidation sweep first. Cumulative shorts exceed longs by over two times, with successive upside clusters increasing in size and providing targets for an extended rally.
🔺 The first target is 1.033–1.049. Clearing and holding above 1.049 shifts focus to 1.057–1.073, with notable peaks near 1.059 and 1.069. Liquidations here could amplify upward momentum.
🎯 Sustained momentum above 1.073 brings the major 1.093–1.105 cluster into focus. The largest liquidation peak sits near 1.099. Density drops noticeably beyond 1.105, making it a point to reassess further upside.
⚖️ The upside scenario retains its edge above 1.013. Losing that level without reclaiming it shifts attention to longs at 1.003–1.011, then 0.995–0.999. Avoid chasing if price sweeps through 1.057–1.073 and falls back below 1.057.
SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is approximately 3.69% wide. The uptrend has lasted 18 hours 40 minutes, with a maximum recorded price increase of 28.12%. If price loses this support zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse downward.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 2.10% wide. The downtrend has lasted 1 day 16 hours 55 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 19.04%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
Crypto sentiment cools as Bitcoin tests $80,000 ahead of the Fed meeting
🌡️ The October 25 update puts CMC’s Fear & Greed Index at 44, in neutral territory, down from 73 a month earlier. Enthusiasm has faded, but this alone does not confirm a market bottom or the start of a new rally.
📉 Bitcoin is trading around $80,000–$80,600, making $80,000 a near-term level to watch. Holding this area would need stronger buying support to build recovery momentum, while a break below on rising volume would increase downside concerns.
🏦 US spot Bitcoin ETF flows weakened late in the week, with $635.6 million withdrawn on October 22 and a provisional $137.9 million on October 23. However, the five-session total remained positive at roughly $301.2 million in Farside’s available data, with one fund’s final-session figure still missing.
🗓️ The next key event is the FOMC decision at 01:00 WIB on October 29, following its October 27–28 meeting. Fed guidance, Bitcoin’s response around $80,000 and early-week ETF flows will help assess whether demand can support a recovery.
📊 Personally, I only consider trading Futures around Cliff Unlock events when the unlock volume exceeds 50% of daily trading volume. For long-term investors, however, monitoring these events may help identify better entry points following each unlock.
🔎 Currently, three upcoming token unlock events stand out due to their high unlock volumes relative to daily trading activity:
🧭 INTC favors a downside long-liquidation sweep first. Although cumulative shorts are larger, dense longs at 82.4–84 sit closer to price than the major short cluster around 90–92, with successive prominent liquidation peaks.
🔻 The first target is 85–85.5. Losing 85 without reclaiming it shifts focus to 83.2–84. A further sweep below 83.2 brings 82.4–82.8 into focus, where liquidations could amplify the decline.
🔺 Above price, shorts build around 88.2–89.8, then concentrate heavily at 90–92, with notable peaks near 90.9 and 91.9. Clearing this cluster opens the next target at 92.5–93.
⚖️ The preferred sequence is a downside sweep, then assessing a reclaim of 85. Clearing and holding above 88.5 first weakens this view and shifts focus to 90–92. Avoid catching the bottom inside 83.2–84 before price reclaims a lost level.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 2.75% wide. The downtrend has lasted 23 hours 25 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 30.13%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 2.69% wide. The downtrend has lasted 2 hours 13 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 14.57%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
🧭 MSTR favors a nearby upside short sweep first. The 146.9–148.5 cluster sits close to price and stands out against nearby longs, while the densest long-liquidation band lies farther below at 136.8–140.
🔺 The first target is 146.9–148.5. Clearing and holding above 148.5 shifts focus to 149.9–150.6, where prominent liquidation peaks could amplify the rally.
🎯 Density thins beyond 150.6 until roughly 151.8. Sustained momentum brings 152.5–154.5 into focus, followed by a distant peak near 158.3.
⚖️ The short-sweep-first scenario retains its edge above 143.5. Losing that level without reclaiming it shifts attention to 141.5–142.5, then 136.8–140. Cumulative longs still outweigh shorts, so an upside sweep alone does not confirm a bullish reversal; avoid chasing if price reaches 148.5 and falls below 146.9.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 1.14% wide. The downtrend has lasted 10 hours 25 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 8.19%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
SC02 H4 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 6.74% wide. The downtrend has lasted 27 days 16 hours, with a maximum recorded price decline of 39.19%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR AND GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 24/10/2026
Across 844 days of data, the correlation between FGI and daily Win Rate is approximately r = -0.293, compared with -0.304 in the previous update. The relationship remains negative but has weakened further, providing insufficient evidence to use FGI alone as a trade entry tool.
Trading performance in the sample tends to be lower during periods of greed, particularly extreme greed. FGI may provide context for assessing risk, but this correlation does not establish early-warning capability or causation.
Below are the average daily Win Rate (WR), theoretical breakeven R, and number of observed days (n) for each sentiment zone. R is expressed as risk, excluding fees and slippage:
➤ These statistics illustrate the relationship between Win Rate and the R required to break even:
📈 At higher FGI levels, historical WR is lower, implying a higher breakeven reward relative to risk. However, setting more distant profit targets may change the Win Rate itself.
📉 At lower FGI levels, historical WR is higher, implying a lower breakeven reward relative to risk. This alone does not establish that reducing profit targets would accelerate capital turnover or improve performance.
🧭 ARB favors an upside short-liquidation sweep first. Cumulative shorts exceed longs by over five times, with successive dense clusters around 0.173–0.1775. No comparable liquidation concentration sits below price.
🔺 The first target is 0.1677–0.1695. Clearing and holding above 0.1695 shifts focus to 0.173–0.1775, with prominent peaks around 0.175–0.176. Successive liquidations here could amplify the rally.
🎯 Density drops noticeably beyond 0.178 until roughly 0.1815. Sustained momentum through the nearer cluster brings 0.1845–0.1885 into focus, with a major peak near 0.1862.
⚖️ The upside scenario retains its edge above 0.1649. Losing that level without reclaiming it shifts attention to longs at 0.1615–0.1635. Avoid chasing if price sweeps 0.1775 and falls below 0.175, as that weakens the case for an extension toward the distant cluster.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 0.97% wide. The downtrend has lasted 9 hours 50 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 6.02%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry contains POC + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 2.97% wide. The downtrend has lasted 1 hour 56 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 14.03%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
🧭 PAXG favors a downside long-liquidation sweep first. Although cumulative shorts are larger, dense longs at 3,950–3,970 sit closer to price than the major short clusters, with a prominent liquidation peak near 3,960.
🔻 The first target is 3,980–4,000. Losing 3,980 without reclaiming it shifts focus to 3,950–3,970. A further sweep below 3,950 brings the 3,910–3,940 long-liquidation band into focus.
🔺 Above price, shorts sit around 4,030–4,045, followed by 4,075–4,095 and 4,105–4,125. A larger cluster at 4,190–4,220 provides a target for an extended short sweep.
⚖️ The preferred sequence is a downside sweep, then assessing a reclaim of 3,980. Clearing and holding above 4,045 first weakens this view and shifts focus to 4,075–4,095, then 4,105–4,125. Avoid buying solely because price reaches 3,960 while it is still cutting through the liquidation cluster.