黑猫SabTheTrader

$BTC Today it’s still trading around $83,000, with more volatility. Over the past couple of days, U.S. Treasury yields have again been at multi-year highs, and the market is clearly waiting for tonight’s data.👀

In the Eastern 8th time zone at 20:30, the U.S. August Core PCE (the “small non-farm payrolls”) will be released. This is one of the Fed’s closely watched inflation indicators. Before and after the data comes out, price swings may be amplified. As always, my old habit is: don’t rush in—let the price move on its own.

#PCE

Micron will release its earnings report tonight. The scenario I’m most wary of is when the report is clearly strong, yet the stock still falls.

$MUB This year, Micron has already surged by nearly 280%. With bullish factors like AI, high-bandwidth memory, and rising prices for memory chips already priced in by the market, the key question now is: how strong does Micron’s performance still need to be for funds to keep buying up shares?

Tonight, I’m mainly watching 3 things:
1️⃣ Revenue
Micron’s target for the fourth fiscal quarter is $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion. The market expects about $50.4 billion.
If it only meets the company’s target, I think the surprise would be limited; but if it clearly exceeds $51 billion, and the guidance for the next quarter also continues to rise, that would be much stronger.

2️⃣ Gross margin
In the previous quarter, gross margin was 84.9%, setting a company record; the target for this quarter is about 86%.
If it continues to hold around 86%, it suggests that memory chips and high-bandwidth memory are still highly profitable. If revenue is strong but gross margin falls, I’d be cautious that this memory price-increase cycle may be nearing its peak.

3️⃣ 2027 guidance
I’ll pay close attention to what management says: 2027 demand, capacity expansions, memory chip prices, and the fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory. If future expectations continue to improve, the outlook is more likely to carry on.

Based on the above 3 points, I’ll prepare for 3 scenarios in advance:

🟢 Revenue clearly above $51 billion + gross margin ≥ 86% + future expectations improving: generally bullish—watch from the sidelines, and look for opportunities once the stock stabilizes after the earnings.

🟡 The earnings are great, but the stock won’t move up: don’t chase. If this happens, I’ll be more cautious.
Micron is up nearly 280% this year already. What the market wants to see is no longer just “a good” earnings report, but: can it still deliver even better than everyone expects?
If the earnings numbers are strong but the after-hours stock price doesn’t rise, I won’t rush to buy.

🔴 Gross margin or future expectations miss: be alert that the market may already be pricing in whether “the most profitable period” is about to be over.

Summary: Right now, I remain moderately positive on Micron’s fundamentals, but I won’t chase it simply because it’s a hot theme.

Tonight, I’ll be watching:
$51 billion revenue / 86% gross margin / 2027 guidance

After the numbers come out, we’ll see how the stock moves.👀

💡 Binance equivalent: trade stocks MU, bStock MUB, and perpetual MUUSDT.

Do you think Micron’s stock will rise or fall after tonight’s earnings report?
#股票财报季

After ARK’s rebound that saw a sharp “price surge” alongside continued position reductions. The publicly available data from Binance at 09:47 (UTC+8) shows that the $ARK perpetual contract is at 0.2715, up 9.04% in 24 hours. The spot market is up 15.38% over the past 24 hours, with both markets moving in the same direction.

In the previous complete 1-hour period, the perpetual contract rose from 0.2301 to 0.2587, up 12.43%. Trading volume was about 12.32 million USDT, with the quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) change increasing 324.64%. Spot rose 12.86% in the same hour, and the trading volume’s QoQ change increased 602.76%. The current price is also 4.95% higher than that hour’s close, but this is not a synchronized chase with new positions.

Quantity OI decreased by 3.39% in the most recent hour, and the 30-point window decreased by 25.72%. The Funding indicator value is -0.7074%, and the most recent settlement is also -0.7026%. Price rebounding, OI contracting, and deeply negative Funding occurring at the same time looks more like shorts getting squeezed after de-leveraging rather than a newly confirmed uptrend of fresh longs; OI alone also cannot distinguish the direction of the remaining positions.

0.2694 was the high of the previous complete hour. Only if the price holds above that level, trading activity continues, and OI stops falling, might this rebound turn into a more stable follow-through. If it drops back below 0.2587 and continues to shrink positions, I will treat this upswing as a short squeeze for now and won’t chase higher prices.

After falling by nearly 30%, LYN is now showing a very urgent intraday pullback. According to public Binance data at 07:37 (UTC+8), perpetual contract $LYN is at 0.02548, down 29.05% over the past 24 hours, with trading volume of about 52.06 million USDT. For this asset, only the perpetual market has currently been confirmed.

In the previous complete hour, it rebounded from 0.02265 to 0.02299, up 1.50%, with trading volume of about 5.23 million USDT, down 20.21% month-over-month; over the last 4 hours it is still down 13.70%. The current price is also 10.83% higher than that hour’s close. The rebound pace is faster than the already confirmed hour’s volume suggests, so short-term price discovery remains unstable.

OI (open interest) in the most recent hour increased by 4.71%, and within a 30-point window it rose by 59.26%. The Funding indicator value is +0.1770%, and the most recent settlement was -0.0027%. During the period of a sharp drop in price, positions were actually being built up. Meanwhile, the Funding indicator turned clearly positive, which could either amplify the rebound squeeze, or increase the burden on long traders chasing the rebound as the next round of deleveraging hits; OI itself cannot determine the direction of the newly added positions.

0.02393 was the high of the previous complete hour. Only if it pulls back and still holds, with trading activity recovering and the OI growth rate cooling down, will the rebound structure be more stable. If it breaks below 0.02190 and is accompanied by a contraction in OI, I will first treat it as a retreat based on crowded positions and will not chase this pullback.

@大丽7613 🎁🎁🎁

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Micron hands in their exam tonight—everyone come take a look 👀

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