Mình đã bước sang năm thứ 8 tham gia thị trường. Cũng không phải nhà đầu tư giỏi, chỉ là có nhiều kinh nghiệm chút thôi. Vẫn đang học hỏi và tiến bộ mỗi ngày.
I have changed my investment perspective for this year. Because the January candle closed very poorly, I have completely dismissed the possibility of the market experiencing a weekly rebound.
Top coins have broken through strong support, notably $SOL has completed a head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart, $AAVE has broken through the diagonal trendline with the monthly candle, $LINK has broken through the 11.7-12$ zone. Therefore, there is no weekly rebound here at all. From the February 2026 monthly candle onward, there will only be a rise to retest the already broken strong support before looking for a new bottom. Combining with my horoscope, from January 19, 2026, to March 18, 2026, is a difficult time for me to make money. From March 19, 2026, to June 14, 2026, is the time when I can easily make money. In the past, when I analyzed by month and year, the times I could easily make money according to my horoscope always coincided with uptrend periods or rebounds, while difficult times corresponded to years and months of downtrends. (because this is my main profession)
I believe that the market will continue to decline until nearly the end of this first quarter, and it may even create a long-term bottom in this first quarter. The second quarter will be a time of price increase, potentially a rebound. Thus, the 6-month candle for the first half of the year will be a long-legged candle. The third quarter will likely be the time when the entire market creates a long-term bottom (or retests the long-term bottom created in the first quarter to form a double bottom pattern). After that, the market will enter a real uptrend. During this downtrend season, I think top coins will die in droves. This will be a very catastrophic coin cleansing season. For hold coins, temporarily there is none on my list that closed the last month's candle beautifully enough to confirm exiting the downtrend. So I will wait a bit longer.
RubyLee
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Summary of the investment perspective for this year based on my technical analysis from the first half of the year.
Just like before, this year is a year of downtrend. $BTC and top coins will hit the bottom by the end of Q2 or the beginning of Q3 this year. Currently, it is a corrective wave on a weekly timeframe from the beginning of the year. Therefore, I will not buy and hold. At least there must be signs of a bottom being formed and the entire market stabilizing before I consider buying and holding.
However, it is not that there are no opportunities to buy and hold coins in the first half of this year. Although 99% of altcoin charts have broken their bottoms and the major patterns are completely invalidated. But I think capital will flow from downtrend coins to a few coins that will run in an uptrend. Regarding new coins, I found $CHZ and $EDU . Both have broken the downtrend pattern and successfully returned to retest on the weekly and monthly frames. #CHZ shows signs of wanting to exit the downtrend on the weekly frame; we just need to wait for this week's candle close to fully confirm it. #EDU successfully retested the weekly and monthly frames, and the indicators on these frames look good. However, it is still running sideways at the bottom in a box. We need to close the weekly candle above the 23 area to confirm the end of the sideways bottom and enter an uptrend. Regarding stock coins, in my opinion, the anonymous system will still lead this year. Because I use TradingView to look at larger timeframe charts like 3m, 6m, 12m, these coins have all been in a downtrend for 7-8 years and have been in a sideways bottom for 3-4 years now. Specifically, #ZECUSDT has completed waves 1-2-3, currently running wave 4, still missing the wave 5 increase. #DASH seems about to break out of the downtrend, no signs of completing wave 1 for the 3m timeframe yet. #zen 's monthly pattern still has not broken, seems like it has not yet run wave 1.
Conclusion: There are a few coins that may run in an uptrend, but the number is very small. The remaining 99% of altcoins will hit rock bottom this year, even including top coins.
I’m a bit lazy but still have to write it. 🤷🤷🤷 Otherwise, how can I look back at my trading diary and analysis later? This month, I still made a profit because I held #CHZ and still had some good trades. However, this month my analysis was a bit off 😂😂😂, partly because I was busy cleaning and moving from January 10 until nearly the end of the month. The other part was due to misplaced trust. So, this month I could only get about 65% of the analysis right.
I believed that the market would have a rebound wave on the weekly chart, trusting that the top coins wouldn't break strong support so quickly. I didn’t believe that this season top coins would die in droves. Therefore, even when $BTC broke the temporary uptrend line on the daily chart, I stubbornly refused to change my mind. It wasn’t until it broke 88k that I accepted the fact that there wouldn’t be any rebound wave on the weekly chart here, because the top coins had completely broken through strong support.
I think this was my biggest mistake. Because I wasn’t clear-headed enough when analyzing. Even $BTC had broken the uptrend line and strong support on the weekly chart, isn't it normal for top coins to break through strong support? Most top coins have no practical application, and there aren’t a lot of users, so why can’t they die in droves?? Except for $BTC , all could end up as worthless coins and fade into dust.
I made a very big mistake. That is, my analysis was not entirely based on the actual situation of the price movements. The market operates in its own way, all reflected in indicators and patterns, candle formations. It doesn’t operate on trust or optimistic or pessimistic emotions, etc... I will have to improve this shortcoming.
I temporarily settle $HBAR because I think it's enough already. The capital part I transfer to $SUI and $NEAR because currently these two have just broken, not yet running a rebound.
RubyLee
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This afternoon, after finishing writing, I gathered $CHZ $AAVE and also $HBAR in the hold account. Now, #AAVE and #hbar have increased by 4-7%, while #chz has only increased by 1.5%. 🤣🤣🤣 Now the altcoins are just following the top coins. Let’s wait until tomorrow to redistribute to transfer some to #ETH because this wave is recovering to 2k7, which means another 25-30% can be gained. It seems better compared to many other top coins, and the risk is also lower. 🤔🤔🤔
Earlier in the evening, there were a few long orders, but I closed them early and didn’t remember to save the images. Basically, I closed early due to greed. I was waiting for it to drop a bit to catch another wave, but I forgot that in a strong wave, it moves continuously without correcting like usual. 🤷🤷🤷 Just learning from experience, regretting won’t solve anything. Tomorrow, I’ll look for a trading point again. 🤔🤔🤔
That's really enough 🤷🤷🤷 $AAVE $HBAR increased by 10-15%, $CHZ increased only by 3% 🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️ Learn from experience, next time push the volume to buy top coins first. After that, when the top coins increase, then switch to altcoins 😐😐😐
RubyLee
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This afternoon, after finishing writing, I gathered $CHZ $AAVE and also $HBAR in the hold account. Now, #AAVE and #hbar have increased by 4-7%, while #chz has only increased by 1.5%. 🤣🤣🤣 Now the altcoins are just following the top coins. Let’s wait until tomorrow to redistribute to transfer some to #ETH because this wave is recovering to 2k7, which means another 25-30% can be gained. It seems better compared to many other top coins, and the risk is also lower. 🤔🤔🤔
Earlier in the evening, there were a few long orders, but I closed them early and didn’t remember to save the images. Basically, I closed early due to greed. I was waiting for it to drop a bit to catch another wave, but I forgot that in a strong wave, it moves continuously without correcting like usual. 🤷🤷🤷 Just learning from experience, regretting won’t solve anything. Tomorrow, I’ll look for a trading point again. 🤔🤔🤔
$SPK Last time I bought hold but it was a loss once because it hadn't run the main wave yet. But I'm still monitoring it. The weekly chart looks quite good, a double bottom pattern. However, we still have to wait for the weekly candle to close above the 24 area to be sure. At that time, waiting for it to test the 24 boundary on the weekly frame and then buying back will not be too late.
The coin looks like it wants to correct, but $BTC just broke the bullish flag on the M15 frame. So it might go up a bit more before correcting later. 🤔🤔🤔
This afternoon, after finishing writing, I gathered $CHZ $AAVE and also $HBAR in the hold account. Now, #AAVE and #hbar have increased by 4-7%, while #chz has only increased by 1.5%. 🤣🤣🤣 Now the altcoins are just following the top coins. Let’s wait until tomorrow to redistribute to transfer some to #ETH because this wave is recovering to 2k7, which means another 25-30% can be gained. It seems better compared to many other top coins, and the risk is also lower. 🤔🤔🤔
Earlier in the evening, there were a few long orders, but I closed them early and didn’t remember to save the images. Basically, I closed early due to greed. I was waiting for it to drop a bit to catch another wave, but I forgot that in a strong wave, it moves continuously without correcting like usual. 🤷🤷🤷 Just learning from experience, regretting won’t solve anything. Tomorrow, I’ll look for a trading point again. 🤔🤔🤔
RubyLee
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After going short on $HBAR yesterday morning. Today I looked closely at the chart and there are a few top coins that look quite good. $HBAR broke the downtrend line on the daily frame yesterday, today there has been a bounce to test the trend line and it hasn’t broken. The MACD on the daily frame has also turned green for several days now. This is one of the very few coins that didn’t hit a second bottom after the recent decline. It may have found a temporary bottom to rally to the 12-13 range. $AAVE also broke the downtrend line extending on the daily frame yesterday. Today it is also testing the trend line again. The possibility of a rally is also very high. The MACD on the daily frame is about to turn green. It could run a rally to test the 140$ area.
Currently, most of the top coins' MACD on the daily frame are at the boundary of turning from red to green. So it’s very likely that the recent decline is just a test creating two temporary bottoms, then a rally to test the strong resistance. I believe buying to catch the rally is also very reasonable, so I am preparing to use USDT in my holding account to gather a few coins that I find decent. However, for me, this rally is only to test the strong resistance before continuing to decline, not a real uptrend yet. In reality, most coins still haven’t found a long-term bottom.
Looking at the current general situation, it seems like it will stop falling at this contact point. Because the downward momentum seems to be slowing down. The MACD on H1 and H4 of $BTC and the top coins are all trending upwards, with the later lows being higher than the previous lows. It looks more like a sideways accumulation taking momentum upwards. The daily candle pattern seems to be forming 2 bottoms, and the 3D frame is also creating candles that tend to increase in price. Most indicators are supporting the upward trend more than the downward trend.
The top coins, a few have broken the downward trendline on the daily frame. The rest, mostly from $ETH $SOL , have the daily MACD in the zone preparing to transition from red to green.
Therefore, I temporarily dismiss the possibility of the market forming a long-term bottom this month. Leaning towards the direction of a wave running up to test hard resistance before continuing to fall. It may be in the second quarter that we get a bottom. But of course, there is still a probability of continuing to decrease and forming a long-term bottom. So after buying, we still need to set a stop-loss at the recent bottom. 🤷🤷🤷 Because currently, there are only a few top coins giving clear and beautiful signals, while #BTC #ETH #sol may run slower. Because the daily MACD is still in red and has not narrowed down enough to turn green immediately, the short-term RSI is still contending with the long-term RSI, which is unclear whether it will break down or up. Thus, there will be some top coins that do not run in the same phase with each other.
RubyLee
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$BTC The situation has been dragging on without resolution. So today, if it falls, it should go back to the range of 64-65k because the diagonal trendline has been shifted down. If it breaks through, then of course it will go to the bottom; lightly it will be 60k creating two bottoms, otherwise, there may be a new bottom. Because after all, the top coin still hasn't formed a bottom yet 🤷🤷🤷
After going short on $HBAR yesterday morning. Today I looked closely at the chart and there are a few top coins that look quite good. $HBAR broke the downtrend line on the daily frame yesterday, today there has been a bounce to test the trend line and it hasn’t broken. The MACD on the daily frame has also turned green for several days now. This is one of the very few coins that didn’t hit a second bottom after the recent decline. It may have found a temporary bottom to rally to the 12-13 range. $AAVE also broke the downtrend line extending on the daily frame yesterday. Today it is also testing the trend line again. The possibility of a rally is also very high. The MACD on the daily frame is about to turn green. It could run a rally to test the 140$ area.
Currently, most of the top coins' MACD on the daily frame are at the boundary of turning from red to green. So it’s very likely that the recent decline is just a test creating two temporary bottoms, then a rally to test the strong resistance. I believe buying to catch the rally is also very reasonable, so I am preparing to use USDT in my holding account to gather a few coins that I find decent. However, for me, this rally is only to test the strong resistance before continuing to decline, not a real uptrend yet. In reality, most coins still haven’t found a long-term bottom.
$CHZ if you don't pay attention for a moment, you'll forget this one Chart h12 breaks short-term downtrend line Closing the D 3D candle looks quite nice. It seems like there is a bottom now. If I miss the bottom, then I'll buy again 😂😂😂
Cannot go up but the trend has broken then 🤔🤔🤔 That's fine
RubyLee
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$SOL must test the range 80.84-80.89 before turning down again. $ETH also need to wait to test 1966-1970 or break the upward trendline. Either is fine, wait for the test point or when it goes up to test the broken trendline then short for safety. I use leverage x4 so the entry point can only be a maximum of 0.4% away from the stoploss 😐😐😐
$SOL must test the range 80.84-80.89 before turning down again. $ETH also need to wait to test 1966-1970 or break the upward trendline. Either is fine, wait for the test point or when it goes up to test the broken trendline then short for safety. I use leverage x4 so the entry point can only be a maximum of 0.4% away from the stoploss 😐😐😐
$ETH is currently in the test area for the date frame, as far as possible to the 2037 area. But for me, this is still a test to further reduce, because it still hasn't reached a real bottom. This morning I went short, so I’m waiting until tonight to find an entry for another order. And if today drags on without a clear trend, I will take a break 🤔🤔🤔
Alright then, that's enough target to make up for yesterday. At 9 PM, the coin really had a fake move. It went up to test the peak of the h12 candle. 😂😂😂 Then it closed h1 below the trendline as if nothing had happened. Well, let's learn from this experience, so from now on I'll only enter trades at 9 AM or after 9 PM. Otherwise, entering too early often doesn't provide a good entry and ends up wasting the stop loss. 😐😐😐
RubyLee
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$SOL has broken through the descending channel on H4. Now it is rising to test the channel and H12 candles to go down further. I don't know how high it will test, but I am already placing shorts 😂😂😂 $HBAR broke the bullish flag pattern, and is currently testing the flag. $ETH Testing the H4 and H12 frames. I am selecting from these options to short. If this one doesn't trigger, I will short another. Sometimes with technical analysis, just one asset might not trigger the order or might not meet the volume, which is a bit disappointing 🤷🤷🤷