RazorTicks

GM ☕️

$TOTAL sitting mid-MFVG, structure mirrors 2022/2023 bottom. If fractal holds, expecting higher low around here.

$BTC at golden pocket inside iMFVG and MFVG — prime zone for a low. Lose this, next watch is .786/POC confluence, same as $ETH.

Translation: hunting HTF longs. Low here + push to highs = major structure shift. Risk is clear, invalidation is clear, upside is clean if it holds.

$UNG sitting in the $3.25–3.40 chop zone right now. Took profit on my long a few days back in this range — no reason to hold through dead air.

Still bullish over the next few weeks, so I'm only hunting longs. But I need a real pullback first, not this sideways grind. If it doesn't show, I sit flat. No setup, no trade.

Don't force it. Don't overtrade. Wait for your edge or stay cash.

Oil futures flat overnight — chart unchanged. $80 is the next support level, yellow wedge marks resistance above. Everything between those two levels is just noise. Watch the boundaries, ignore the chop in the middle.

Gold's grinding higher overnight and my DMs are flooded. Half the crew is sweating every dip after buying. The other half is panicking about missing the move.

Let me keep it real — I take this seriously because I know some of you trade off my reads. That's on me. So here's the straight truth on gold:

- We're in a bottoming process. That doesn't mean we hit one magic level and rip forever. Markets don't work like that. If they did, everyone would be rich.
- $3400 is still on the table IMO — 20-25% chance. Not likely, but possible.
- This zone is the highest probability bottom.
- Zoom out. Stop obsessing over every 1% move.

Transparency: I took a SMALL buy yesterday. My trading group got the alert live.

If you're stressed by the last two weeks of chop, you're either:
1) A very short-term trader (fine)
2) Overexposed (not fine)

If it's #2, cut your size. Trade what you can sleep on. No setup is worth losing your head over.

Fast drops vs slow drops — it's all about liquidity gaps.

$BTC lost $75k and dumped straight to $66.5k. No surprise. That zone from $66.5k to ~$75k was a fair value gap — price ripped through it in days with barely any volume. Thin air = no support = fast drop when it comes back.

Two things I'm always charting:
1. High liquidity zones — pivots, value areas, places where price spent time. Orders stack there. Support or acceleration happens there.
2. Low volume zones — the opposite. Price flies through, nothing holds it.

Around $66.5k, there's finally some structure. Price can hold and bounce here — doesn't mean it will, just that it can. Volume and open interest at the level will tell you if it's real.

My setup:
- Watching $BTC at $66.5k for a reaction before I buy.
- But honestly, alts look better right now. Already grabbed a couple this morning.

No guarantees, just probabilities. Trade the reaction, not the hope.

$CSCO popped 6% after hours on the earnings beat but stalled hard at $107 — that level's acting like a brick wall for now. $AMAT also beat but went nowhere, dead flat.

Nasdaq closed above 28230, so the bias stays cautiously long. These beats keep the momentum alive, but watch how price reacts at resistance. If $CSCO can't push through 107, it's a fade setup. If it breaks, could run.

No trade yet — just watching structure. Bulls have the edge as long as Nasdaq holds above that close.

Volume's dead right now and I know exactly why.

Since the hack, same play on repeat: Binance futures rams price into liq zones, spot quietly soaks it up. Pressure eases, then comes back. Same exchange, same pattern, same clusters getting wiped over and over.

Now it's gone silent. Most MMs are sidelined. What's left? Still Binance—spot buying, futures selling, same time.

Put it together: looks like they used the market to recover hack losses. Push price down with futures, liquidate longs, let panic dump the rest, buy spot cheaper. Rinse, repeat until whole.

Now volume's bone dry. Feels like the job's nearly done.

Can't prove it. But I've watched this flow daily since the hack—hasn't looked normal once.

When the pressure lifts and real MMs return, spot will show where price actually wanted to go. Until then, no setup, no trade. This isn't a market—it's a cleanup operation.

$BTC dropping nearly 3% today and breakdown's basically confirmed unless we get a wild bounce. That puts $66,500 in play as the next support zone — I'm looking to catch a bid there if we get the tap. No miracle = no hold, simple as that.

Not sweating it.

Manage your risk right and you can hold through chop. But if that money actually matters to you, take some profit. No shame in banking greens when it counts.

Market shrugging off the Jensen Huang news — real strength if it holds. Still early, never trust the move until the close, but I'm leaning toward lows being in on $SPX and $NDX.

Key levels on futures: 7628 and 28230. Those hold, we're good. Break below, reassess.

How I'm trading it:
1) Long NW day trade from 28230, holding as long as it runs — closing before the bell
2) Net long tech positions
3) Sitting on cash. Could implode any second with a Trump tweet, Iran escalation, or more AI bubble panic. Stay ready to cut.

Resilient tape, but don't get married to it. Lock greens, respect the stop, keep powder dry.

$GOLD just printed a lower low — the bounce was a dead cat, nothing more. I've been saying it: no reason to call a bottom yet. Failed to reclaim any key levels, and that's exactly why you don't chase emotion or rush entries.

I'm still flat on gold, sitting sidelines, waiting for my level. Might enter soon, but not forcing it today. If I do, it's with full awareness that $3400 is still in play.

Stick to the script: this is the bottoming process. It takes time, sometimes months, and it's rarely as clean as one dip and straight rip. Patience wins.

Binance just straight up compressing $BTC on their own. Cartel vibes in full swing. Watch the spread tighten and liquidity dry up when one exchange runs the show. This is how manipulated zones get built before the real move drops.

$NVDA dumping hard — down 14% premarket after Jensen Huang resigns after 33 years. Watching $152 as my level, but I'm sitting on hands until at least 30 mins post NY open.

This could turn into a bloodbath. Don't rush in. Don't panic buy. Wait for the dust to settle.

Hope it's not a massacre, but I'm prepared either way. No trade is better than a bad trade.

$NBIS tanked 11%+ on earnings, $NVDA off 7%, yet Nasdaq only bleeding 1%. That's not weakness — that's absorption.

If we close the NY session around -1% with those anchors dragging, that's a strong hold. Market's digesting bad prints without panic selling the broader tape.

Watching how we finish. If buyers step in and we compress that loss, it confirms underlying bid strength despite the headline noise.

Woke up at 4:15 from jetlag and $BTC is sitting in a tight micro range between 73.2k and 74.4k. Predictability is high right now.

MM algos look like they shifted early this year — normally we'd see this in early December. The new pattern? Extreme compression before a violent move. We're coiled tight.

What I'm watching: a breakout either direction with probably 1B+ in liquidations in 24h. That's the new meta for the next 4 months.

Confirmation levels: 71.8k downside, 75.5k upside. One of those breaks and we run hard. No setup inside the range — wait for the move, then trade the follow-through.

$NBIS earnings drop pre-market today — big moment for tech and $QQQ direction. This one rode the AI/data center wave hard, then got crushed in the correction. Earnings from these names still set the tone for the session.

$CRWV beat yesterday and sparked a sector-wide rip. $NBIS has $20-24 implied move.

Levels I'm watching:

$130-134: day trade long zone. $113 is swing support if it holds.

$168.76: gap fill. Aggressive short spot but risky — could squeeze.

$182: clean day trade short if we somehow pump that high. Unlikely.

Stay nimble. Earnings volatility = fast moves both ways. Respect the range, cut if invalidated.

$NVDA down 7% overnight on CEO drama — prediction markets pricing 50% chance Jensen exits today, 88% by year-end. That's not noise, that's real tail risk.

From a pure chart read, $152 was always a magnet for retrace. That's my line. Not chasing here, not shorting into panic. Waiting for the dip to that level, then I'm a buyer if structure holds.

Three ways to play this:
1️⃣ Short into more selling — not my game, too much headline whipsaw
2️⃣ Buy now, stomach the chop — fine if you're holding bags already
3️⃣ Wait for $152, buy the dip — this is my move

I'm cool missing it if it doesn't tag my level. No FOMO, no revenge trades. Setup shows or I sit. That's the game.

$SILVER dipping slightly overnight—still grinding out a bottom IMO. Just like $GOLD, wouldn't be shocked if we tag the low one more time before the real move. Major cycle lows don't usually print one clean candle and rip—they test, retest, shake out weak hands. This is the process. No setup until it proves itself, but I'm watching closely. Cut if invalidated, scale in if it holds. Bottoming takes time.

One week. That's all it took.

When we launched the BloFin × Chento raffle, the full $20,000 prize pool was locked behind 90M in total volume. Honestly, I expected it to take most of the month.

You did 90.94M in seven days.

That means every prize is unlocked: 20 winners, each walking away with a $1,000 futures bonus.

I don't take that for granted. Every ticket in that pool came from someone in this community who showed up and traded with us, and that's exactly why we're not slowing down.

We're ending this raffle here, and a brand new one is launching very soon. Winners for this round will be announced shortly.

What would you want the next prize to be?

$CRWV ripped 25% intraday then dumped 6% after hours on $NVDA drama—Jensen replacement rumors bleeding into anything tied to Nvidia. Classic guilt-by-association flush. If you're holding this, watch pre-market for continuation or bounce attempt. No setup yet, just noise and correlation risk. Let it settle before touching it.