Something big is breaking beneath the surface — and it’s not priced in yet.
The Fed, Treasury, and Banks are now working against each other: 💣 Treasury = flooding the market with new debt 💣 Fed = still draining reserves (QT) 💣 Banks = stuck with low-yield assets, out of balance sheet space
Result? The plumbing of the dollar system is clogging up. 💧
SOFR spiking 📈
Regional banks sliding 🏦
Bond yields collapsing 📉
These aren’t random — they’re symptoms of vanishing liquidity. Money isn’t flowing through the system anymore. It’s getting trapped at the top while the real economy starves for credit.
The market isn’t bracing for a slowdown — it’s bracing for a policy break. The next FOMC on Oct 29 might be too far away. If funding stress keeps building, the Fed may be forced to step in early — not with talk, but with liquidity injections: 🔹 Pause QT 🔹 Expand repo ops 🔹 Quietly revive emergency tools
The bond market is already screaming the warning. If they don’t move soon, this won’t be a smooth easing cycle — it’ll be a liquidity crunch that forces their hand. ⚠️
🇺🇸Fed Chair Powell says tariffs are the primary driver of recent inflation and that the central bank expects the impact to be a 'one-time' price increase.
🚨 ALTCOINS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO A BOTTOM THAN A TOP.
Zoom out. Ignore the noise. The macro signals are painting a very different picture than fear-driven timelines suggest.
Most people stare at M2… But the true leading signal this cycle is the Russell 2000 (IWM) — and it’s screaming risk-on.
📈 IWM JUST CLOSED ITS HIGHEST MONTHLY LEVEL IN HISTORY.
Every time small caps do this, liquidity is rising and markets are willing to take risk. And historically?
➡️ $BTC runs first ➡️ Altcoins follow shortly after — with aggression.
Look back:
2015
2018
2020-2021
Every time IWM broke or retested big macro levels, BTC pushed higher and alts exploded with a lag.
Today: IWM is at fresh 2025 highs while BTC and alts are still lagging below theirs.
That lag is the setup — the same one we saw before the 2020-2021 altcoin mania.
🔥 Important historical fact: A true multi-year crypto bear market has never started while US small caps were printing new highs. Bear markets showed up when small caps were weak — not when they were ripping.
🧩 Add the Macro:
The Fed is already cutting rates
Major banks expect QE-style liquidity by 2026
Political pressure is building: → “Remove income tax.” → “$2,000 tariff dividends.”
Analysts are now modelling a cycle peak in 2026, not 2025
🧠 Bigger Picture:
✔ BTC higher-timeframe structure still bullish ✔ Liquidity rising ✔ Alts tracking US risk assets ✔ Small caps leading — not lagging ✔ Macro tailwinds lining up
This does not look like the start of a long bear market.
It looks like an extended cycle, one where $BTC and alts may still make fresh highs into 2026 if this regime holds.
If you think this was the top— the market structure strongly disagrees.
After a sharp pullback from recent highs, SAPIEN just tapped a key support zone where buyers are stepping back in. Volume is returning — and volatility is perfect for a clean swing.