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Specifically for BTC, the situation also looks ambiguous, but at least there are clear signposts.

First of all, the price is still maintaining a steady downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe right now. And as long as this is the case, we expect further decline. Although since yesterday, bears have had a problem: a persistent uptrend on the 2.5-hour timeframe (statistically, it most often leads to a corresponding uptrend on the 3-hour timeframe as well).

Secondly, on our trigger 3-hour timeframe there are two clear liquidity zones acting as support and resistance. And the #BTC price has been squeezed between them since last Friday. Support is 76 785–77 843$ and resistance is 78 948–79 822$. Absorption of one of these by the body of a 3-hour candlestick should determine the next move. And while the price is moving, pressing itself specifically toward the lower range

By BTC by the evening of Sunday, the rise ensured the price returned to a steady uptrend on the 2.5-hour timeframe. Which, as a rule, acts as a “spoiler” for the return to the uptrend on the 3-hour timeframe.

As you can see from the screenshot, on the 2.5-hour timeframe the targets are tightly set up to $80,319, and overall the additional targets end at $84,384.

On the 3-hour timeframe, the price has come very close to the level that could break the downtrend, $79,694. And it is testing the liquidity zone 78,948-79 822$ as resistance. A candle close in 20 minutes, and for the bears, there are again reasons to worry.

For the first time during the August pump, BTC has shifted into a sustained downtrend on the 2-hour timeframe. While we were writing this post, the base target at $77,305 has already been hit, and the price is now approaching the next one—$76,540. The potential break level is $79,983. At the same time, there is already a second mark for potential lower levels on this timeframe. So for now, the question of when the correction will start is still open.

But the trend is clear and obvious. Plus, our P73 CryptoMarket Monitor in this hour shows that among the TOP-200 crypto assets:

- 16 more assets have moved into a sustained downtrend on the 1-hour timeframe,
- besides BTC, 12 more assets have moved into a sustained downtrend on the 2-hour timeframe.

Also, 5 assets from the TOP-200 have shifted into a sustained downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe.

The situation is getting even more interesting. Let us remind you that the $75,761 level, according to our assessment, is the "watershed" between the bearish and bullish markets.

What will be most interesting is what happens if the price breaks the uptrends on the 3- and 4-hour timeframe. Then we’ll consider adding to the short position to improve the entry point.

BTC has returned above the 21-week moving average. BIT analysts consider this an important confirmation of a bullish market structure returning.

Right now, the 21-week average is around $71,000, and #BTC has consolidated above it.

For BIT, this level is one of the key cycle benchmarks:

- in October 2025, a break below the 21-week moving average confirmed the transition to a bearish phase;
- now BTC has, for the first time, firmly returned above it.

The chart also marks the current range boundaries:

- the upper level — about $85,970;
- the 21-week moving average — about $71,030;
- the lower level — about $56,090.

In #BIT’s view, as long as BTC remains above $71,000, the market structure looks significantly more constructive and aligns with the scenario of a return to the bullish phase.

The next important zone is in the area of $86,000. A move back below the 21-week moving average will again put this signal into question.

For now, we’re waiting for at least a retest of the moving average break. But the question is whether there will be an update of the pump highs, or not.

BTC sellers are trying to absorb today’s pump, and on the 12-hour timeframe a high (a “high” marker) has been set. This is what we wrote about in the morning review.

At the opening of the new 12-hour timeframe, a second potential high marker appeared, which is good for the bears. BUT it does not yet guarantee a new attempt to start a correction of August’s pump. It only potentially limits the strength of the trend and the height of the potential re-break.

In reality, the price is still standing within consolidation. And until it breaks again the sustained uptrend on the 1-hour timeframe, it’s too early to talk about the start of a correction. After all, today the buyers restored the sustained uptrends on the 1-hour and 1.5-hour timeframes—so they control the situation. And the decline in the last few hours has still not brought the price down to the level of a potential break of the 1-hour uptrend (78,408$).

In the end—at the moment, we just keep waiting for the situation to develop and for new evidence of buyer weakness. Today, on the 1-hour timeframe, the price has once again come to test the liquidity zone at 80,382–80,801$, which we mentioned in the review. For the bears, it is critical that this zone is not tested a third time, otherwise the likelihood of a breakout will be high.

Important events for the crypto market on August 27 from the economic calendar.
Most importantly, today the symposium in Jackson Hole begins. It matters because of possible signals from representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks. Anyone who remembers how markets got “stormy” during Powell’s appearances understands the outlook. The speech by the new Fed chair, Waller, will be tomorrow. So today is a “warm-up.”
Schedule for the day:
❗️- 15:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:00 Astana time — Symposium in Jackson Hole.
❗️- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time — Initial Jobless Claims and the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the U.S. Important for assessing the resilience of the labor market.
- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time — U.S. goods trade balance for July. Important for assessing external trade dynamics of the U.S. economy.
❗️- 23:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 01:30 of the new day in Astana — U.S. Federal Reserve balance.

The BTC downtrends on the hourly and 1.5-hour timeframes have been lost; the bulls are once again completely in control. Of course, by local trends—on the weekly, 2-week, and monthly timeframes, the persistent downtrends by our indicator are still in effect.

As for the base and additional targets, as you can see, everything is closely capped around $81,988. But overall, the nearest targets are up to $83,055. On the hourly timeframe, the nearest liquidity zone that the bulls are hunting—and which is now a priority—is $80,382–$80,801. The next one is $82,445–$82,952$.

We would also like to note that, overall in this hour, according to the P73 CryptoMarket Monitor, besides #BTC, 24 assets have switched into an uptrend on the hourly timeframe. So this is not about a non-manipulative breakout upward driven by only one key market asset. The monitor gives a forecast: "In the short term, the average probability of the upward move continuing in the market. With a correction or without it.""

Under the dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC - tests of the most important level 9.65% continue. Let us remind you: according to our assessment, this level separates bearish and bullish markets.

Pressure on the level has been continuing for 7 days in a row, and the more tests there are, the higher the probability of a breakout of the level and consolidation below it. But the Strong signal is bullish/positive on the daily TF is still a strong argument for us to wait for a rebound from this level and its breakout later.