北幣逗狗

After gradually liquidating Bitcoin before the end of October, I started planning future directions these days.
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Last month, I also had my family liquidate both Taiwan and U.S. stocks.
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Although my family is not interested in investing in Bitcoin, they will at least fully follow the stock actions.
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For the cryptocurrency market, the bear market is often the real stage for accumulating wealth.
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The bull market can actually lead to losses, like last month when I took a hit due to a black swan event.
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From now on, I will maintain a rhythm of withdrawals every day, and by the end of the year, I might buy some Japanese yen.
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Leaving a small position to continuously stay in the crypto space looking for opportunities.
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Many people have a blind spot, thinking that the bear market means no money can be made,
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but in the crypto space, it’s actually the best time for airdrops and engaging with projects.
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I also gained more confidence in Solana because I participated in Jupiter in 2022 and 2023,
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which is why I dared to increase my positions at that time.
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During the process of participation, you will gradually become more sensitive,
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as long as the projects after the bear market are still alive, you will know which coins can be stashed for the future.
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If you don't have that much time to keep up with the rhythm of the crypto market, the most brainless approach is:
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1. Take advantage of this year to make good money, and don't act just yet.
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2. Wait for a major bottom next year to go all in on Bitcoin.
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3. Set aside some living expenses each month, and continue to DCA Bitcoin with the rest.
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The process in between can be quite boring; if you want to feel involved,
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then when the news starts reporting about a surge, reduce your holdings a bit,
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and when the news starts reporting about a crash, buy a little back.
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Finally, at the end of the 2029 cycle, cash out completely.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

One of the indicators for Bitcoin bull/bear transitions is the MVRV Z-Score. Let’s review what comes next.

In the past, whenever the market was at the top of a bull market, the indicator would reach the red zone.

At the bottom of a bear market, the indicator would reach the green zone.

But in the previous cycle, it never really got close to the red zone, and the bull market ended.

In June, we once almost reached the green zone, getting close to zero.

If the previous bull cycle didn’t reach the green zone and still softened—could it be that this time, even if the bottom doesn’t touch the green zone, it can still trigger a new cycle?

I believe that as the BTC market matures, this kind of volatility will become smaller and smaller.

Also, take a look again: whenever the shift from bear to bull is triggered,

the indicator typically jumps vertically by 90 degrees upward, then gradually consolidates before moving higher.

Now the indicator is already very close to the situation where it previously went vertically upward, and it’s quite possible that the bottom is already 57K.

That’s why one of the conclusions going forward is relatively bullish on pullbacks, rather than expecting a big spike downward. $BTC

I closed my Bitcoin long positions. My thinking has slowly shifted into the bigger uptrend—bullish!

I’m planning to start building long-term spot positions.

During the past few weeks, when we were buying the dip, we kept thinking there would be a bounce.

We initially expected the bounce to end around the 70,000 level.

But after this bounce exceeded my expectations, I’ve been observing and not taking action these past few days.

The two key things I like to watch most are:

“Open interest” and the “MVRV Z-Score.”

When combined with the fact that the total market cap of altcoins is flying higher, my thinking gradually shifts from “a bounce” to “a reversal.”

Even though a lot of data still doesn’t fully match—for example, at previous bear-market bottoms, trading volume would expand—this time the volume is extremely low.

But in the last bull market, it also didn’t meet many conditions before it directly flipped to a bear trend.

I believe the 52k high-probability level we were waiting for likely won’t come.

There may be one final drop in the market, but how much it drops will depend on the options.

The option strike prices are approximately:

85,000 for calls and 72,000 for puts; we don’t know the expiration time.

This leg up started around the 64k area.

So if we see a pullback, the high-probability zone is likely in the 64–72 range.

Moving up into the 85k range, the bullish call positions may get closed out.

We built quite a few positions at the bottom. Although we managed to capture some profit,

unfortunately, we missed the middle move, and the last leg wasn’t done perfectly.

After selling, what remains in my hands is 10% MicroStrategy, and I don’t plan to sell that position.

I’ll gradually start building long-term positions.

The adjusted allocation will be整理ed and posted later.
$BTC

In the final leg of a Bitcoin bear market, the things to watch out for are that,

We can’t execute shorting with relatively heavy positions the way we did in the early or mid stages of past bear markets.

Even if I will reduce spot holdings when prices rise,

no matter how the situation develops afterward, when setting up shorts I won’t use large amounts to challenge the bear market’s tail end.

Here, going big on shorts is not rational—its cost-effectiveness (CP value) is very low and there’s not much point.

In the past, the senior guys always developed inertia in the final days of the bear market,

and when the market turns bullish, they still end up getting used to shorting aggressively.

In the end, they miss the entire bull run.

In the last phase of the bear market, those who remain fixated on shorting after the latest drop ultimately become infinite short dogs—taken out by the operator in one move.

Here, we must be extra careful—careful again and again.

Although I personally think there may still be one more poke,

I won’t blindly challenge the very last wave.

I’m worried that some readers will be so convinced by my earlier wins that,

in the final stage, they go heavy on short positions—only to trap themselves in a fate they can’t recover from.

Real wealth is accumulated by buying at the bottom of the bear market, not by getting rich through shorting.

So even if I try in the last wave,

I’ll only position a portion—using some premium on put options is enough.

If it doesn’t come, we still can step in on the right side with a large position at any time.

Since I’m worried my readers trust me too much, I’m being extra clear and reminding you specially.

Let’s encourage each other. We’re about to welcome good days ahead. The bottom of the bear market is so precious—once every four years, just like the Olympics.$BTC

I still hold onto gold and silver, and I still believe in a rebound in the second half of the year!

A few months ago when we traded gold and silver in a swing,

we ran into a big drop around 4600,

and after breaking below 4000, we were stuck being knocked around for a while.

But I still believe there will be a very good rebound in the second half of the year—especially for silver.

So back then we also added to AG Silver Mining, buying at 19. We were briefly stuck in a loss for a period, and now it’s finally at 21.

We can see that central banks around the world are still continuously adding to their gold holdings.

Also, the biggest reason gold has kept rising over recent years is the lack of trust in US Treasuries and the US dollar.

This time, when Bessent repurchased US Treasuries, it can only be described as putting a Band-Aid on it.

And after Japan has raised rates several times, the yen is still weak.

For “old money,” gradually increasing their gold position is very reasonable.

That’s why I’ve kept sticking to my view.

This time, the ideal target is to wait until gold reaches 5000 and silver is around 90; then I will fully close my profits.

And then I’ll use all of it to go bottom-fishing in the crypto圈!$BTC

After Bitcoin rebounds smoothly, what is my next line of thinking?

BTC has been lying low for a full two months with little to no volatility.

Last week I mentioned that in just a few days there will be a Bitcoin conference, and we very likely will encounter volatility around this time.

The reason for this rise, besides continuous net inflows into the ETF,

the biggest key is that the U.S. Treasury plans to repurchase U.S. Treasuries,

and as a result, gold, silver, and Bitcoin all shot up together.

But Bessent’s support for the bond market only held for a day—the yields on U.S. Treasuries then snapped back to their previous levels.

On top of that, with Japan’s ongoing inflation, every time the yen is aggressively pulled up as an emergency measure, it basically doesn’t help.

If Japan can’t hold out and ends up needing to prepare for rate hikes, that should have a major impact on the market.

Also, there are factors I mentioned earlier, like the U.S. midterm elections, etc.

Many uncertainties are likely to converge and show up in Q4.

With all these factors stacking together, my personal positioning will be to reduce holdings in U.S. stocks and series related to Bitcoin before the end of August, taking profits on the way up.

This kind of Bitcoin rally usually has follow-through.

If the market continues to push higher over the next few days, won’t sentiment again become more unified—believing the bull market is about to return and fearing missing out?

But evidently, most people in the market still haven’t registered it.

We’re not yet in the most狂熱 stage, so I think there’s still some room to go higher.

Once Bitcoin rallies to above 80,000, I’ll wrap up profits on MicroStrategy as well,

and depending on conditions, I’ll also allocate some put options.

After that, it’s just a matter of patiently waiting for time to validate everything—hoping for a perfect finish.$BTC

Bitcoin’s outrageous rally over two consecutive days has left the market in a wave of FOMO.

Recently, I updated my outlook on Bitcoin favoring a rebound,

especially when the stock market got smashed through last month—on-chain, the whale still kept accumulating,

and Bitcoin didn’t get dragged down to lower levels along with the stock market,

I wrote quite a few related rebound posts, and these past two days also went smoothly with great results.

Next, we’ll continue according to our original plan: reducing positions on strength and gradually cutting risk!

Our setup when it was around 60k+:

I closed out the profits from the large short positions and bearish options, leaving only a single long short position,

and allocated
15% to Bitcoin spot
5% to a 3x leveraged long on Bitcoin
15% to MicroStrategy

Initially, I expected the rebound to reach around 70k, but the market is actually even better than I imagined.

Now I’m starting to reduce positions gradually:

I’ve sold all of my Bitcoin spot and leveraged longs,

and I’ve already set up a low-leverage, light short position at the beginning of 70k,

and MicroStrategy has also been sold down to the remaining 10% allocation.

If it continues to rise further, then my MicroStrategy position will be cleared completely as well.

Also, STRC—what I called “wrongly beaten down” in June—74 (bold entry)… I entered back then, and now at 95 I’m already fully out.

Once STRC’s par value returns to 100, I believe the next wave of risk isn’t far off.

Right now, many people in the market are starting to shift to bullish views,

but instead, I’m going to gradually lean more toward a conservative, defensive mode.

Our previous swing trades have succeeded many, many times.

We’re down to the very last stretch of the bear market—everyone, keep it up and do your best!

In my next post, I’ll write in detail about my view on Bitcoin going forward.$BTC

Bitcoin, continue to follow our plan. Don’t be too nervous.

Wait for a big rebound, then sell the spot holdings, and be patient for the final round of opportunities to short.

The market I know best is finally no longer lying flat.

Not long ago, Bitcoin was almost ignored by retail traders—there were even plenty of people who added shorts at over 60,000.

Looking back at the start of this rebound, it began when MicroStrategy’s stock price and the market value of its held coins became decoupled in June.

At that time, even STRC was mistakenly sold off, dropping to around the low 70s.

When the market was in severe panic, and meanwhile we also saw Bitcoin ETFs start turning toward net inflows, that’s when I kept getting more optimistic about the rebound.

According to the original plan, after continuing to rebound, I may execute the last wave of shorts in the bear market.

But here’s what to注意:

“Most people are likely to get knocked out at this position.”

Whether from a human nature perspective or from historical patterns,

shorting tends to build momentum and habit, and when you execute that final wave, it’s usually done with extra force.

In the end, it becomes a stubborn head-short, and the obsession grows very deep.

I set up new short orders around above 70,000, but they only account for 5% of my position.

As you get closer to the tail end of the bear market, you need to be even more cautious and prioritize safety.

If the market reverses, you can always turn around at any time.

Right now, I believe the probability of reversing from here into a bull market is not high.

Especially with this kind of pump, it usually causes retail traders to miss the train and feel FOMO anxiety.

All a market maker has to do at this point is continue releasing good news, and then slowly pull the market up while dragging the ladder up for everyone.

Most likely, many people still won’t be able to stand it and will just chase in directly.

Let’s be careful and cautious!$BTC

Bitcoin rises with a big bullish candle—like thousands of troops come to meet!

We’ve been calling for a Bitcoin rebound for more than a month. We ground it out at the bottom for a super long time, and today we finally got a decent bounce.

This time, for our spot swing trade around 68,500, we exited the position. This is the tenth swing take-profit of this bear market year—this time we waited especially long.

And there’s also a three-times leveraged token setup for this swing. The profits are pretty solid.

Earlier, I mentioned that on 8/27 there will be the Bitcoin Asia Summit. Over the next few days, there should be a lot of volatility.

Just now, the U.S. Treasury announced it would carry out a repurchase of Treasuries, and Bitcoin finally responded.

During this period, because long-term Treasury yields have been too high for years, the market has been panicking about investing in general—everyone’s also worried about the interest-rate hikes.

This Treasury buyback operation didn’t just pump Bitcoin—it also lifted gold and silver.

Here’s something worth noting:

With news this big, the U.S. stock market didn’t really react much.

As mentioned in the previous post, risk is gradually approaching. We’re steadily reducing our positions in U.S. stocks, and we fully closed out the 2x long positions in Micron and Hynix.

Over the past few days, we’ve been trimming on strength—slowly bringing cash onto the sidelines.

Bitcoin may also carry out the final shorting move of this bear market cycle!

Be patient and wait for $BTC

US stocks still look optimistic for a rebound, but if they keep rising, you’ll need to gradually sell off and realize profits.

Today’s upswing’s most important catalyst is that

the U.S. government has finally started putting pressure on Apple, opposing the procurement of Chinese memory,

and after the end of June Apple stopped playing with Micron and turned to cooperate directly with China, US stocks began a major pullback.

As relations between China and the U.S. grow increasingly sensitive, today the U.S. finally intervened in the development of this issue.

This is a significant positive for Micron, Hynix, and Sandisk. Market fears about China’s competitive landscape have eased quite a bit.

In addition, Anthropic, which is preparing for an IPO, is expected to have 2028 revenue potentially reaching $200 billion,

and the market continues to recover. Last month, doubts about whether AI could be monetized have slowly been fading.

Coming back to our strategy, since last month we decided to buy the dip.

I kept calling for a rebound, and it turned out very smoothly. But if the rebound continues, then it’s time to take profits—start thinking about how to exit.

Bring the meat to your mouth, take a small bite, then withdraw.

Maybe there will still be a great opportunity to enter in October—the opportunity is something you wait for.

Last week, I sold half of the 2x leveraged Micron and Hynix position.

I may sell all the remaining shares this week as well; at most, I’ll keep only gold and silver.

Also, the triple-leveraged semiconductor index we set up will be sold off during the upcoming rebound. BTC too.

I believe this week’s rebound is a key week. $BTC

Bitcoin is still grinding in place, not moving at all,

very much like the bottom consolidation range we mentioned earlier.

In past updates, we said that things are now very close to the bottom too,

next comes:

1. Wait for a short bounce; after the bounce,

2. then we wait for the last “needle” of the bear market.

After this week’s U.S. CPI and PPI came out, although U.S. stocks and gold and silver bounced quite a bit,

Bitcoin is still stuck here, barely moving and just going flat.

The market’s attention and capital are no longer focused on this; volatility is getting smaller and smaller,

and it’s increasingly consistent with the consolidation that typically appears near the bottom.

In the past few days, there have been a lot of net outflows from ETFs,

but on 8/27 there will be the Bitcoin Asia Summit,

so before that point, maybe the coin price will start moving again.

The strategy is pretty simple right now:

If there isn’t a final leg of rebound followed by a drop, then we’ll treat the spot we bought at over 60,000 as a long-term position layout, and if the price falls, we keep buying.

And if there’s an opportunity for it to drop to around 52,000, I will close the short positions.

If it bounces up to around 70,000, I will sell the spot, and keep holding the shorts.

At the moment, I still think the odds favor a rebound.

The market has entered a time when sectors rotate with each other; before the Asia Summit, the market’s attention and capital may have a chance to flow into Bitcoin.$BTC

I reduced my memory holdings by half and took profits. If the remaining position keeps rebounding, I’ll exit it all.

As several favorable data releases came out, U.S. stocks as a whole have performed quite well.

But the more it rises, the more I think we should gradually reduce positions.

When it falls, don’t panic; when it rises, you also need to pay attention to risk.

I mentioned in June that, in fact, I was more bearish on the second-half outlook.

Because there will be many overlapping factors before the election,

so if it keeps rebounding, it’s time to take profits while things are good.

The next big event that will have a relatively large impact on semiconductors

is Nvidia’s earnings on 8/26. If U.S. stocks continue rebounding close to the earnings date, I will continue reducing my position.

The next important meeting is the FOMC in mid-September, and before that I should be fully in cash.

Also, I initially built a position in silver stock AG at 19, and now it has rebounded to 19.4. Gold is also close to rebounding to my previous entry price. I’m still optimistic about a rebound in gold and silver, so I will choose to continue holding. $BTC

Micron and Hynix are about to make a fiery comeback. After inflation gradually cools off,

most semiconductor stocks have seen a strong rebound.

The CPI and PPI data released over the past two days have both been very encouraging. Today’s PPI came in below expectations,

and those two data points have significantly reduced the market’s fear of further rate hikes.

At the end of last month, I bottom-picked U.S. stocks. After bringing my position size close to fully loaded, I still maintained the view that the rebound would continue.

Because when I bottom-picked, I used a little leverage—I bought Micron 2x and Hynix 2x leveraged exposure.

If the rebound continues, I will prioritize taking profits to close out the leverage.

The timing right now is excellent: the market is continuing to rebound as expected.

By the end of the month, I will gradually close out my U.S. stock positions,

and I will also sell the spot Bitcoin and MicroStrategy holdings. As for gold and silver, I’ll hold them a bit longer. I still like how things will perform next.

From the U.S.’s stance of “rescuing Japan,” you can tell that behind it isn’t just about saving U.S. Treasuries—it’s also about saving U.S. stocks.

U.S. stocks are one of Trump’s accomplishments, and they can’t allow Japan to ruin all of this.

But briefly burning money to prop up the yen is useless—it only gives a short burst of adrenaline.

Japan’s aging problem is now too severe. If it doesn’t raise rates, the yen will keep falling.

So the closer we get to October, the more cautious I will become.

Let the party dance on for a while longer, and enjoy the comfortable upside ahead.
$BTC

After the CPI data came out, U.S. stocks and gold continued to rebound strongly to catch up.

After July, the market became highly sensitive to interest rates again, and the Fed’s actions became the key factor.

After the last FOMC, when Warsh stopped sounding hawkish, I decisively went in to buy the dip, and in early August the stock market began to catch up with the rebound.

Until just a few days ago, the market may have been worried that the CPI data would be too bad, and the upward momentum then faded.

But I still believe the market will continue to catch up—just like my view in the past few days, which remains unchanged.

Today, after the CPI was released, prices all moved back again.

Especially my precious metals positions—gold and silver—are gradually coming back to life. They’re almost back to the last time I entered at the buildup cost.

Last month, seeing many countries’ central banks continuously adding to gold, I believe it won’t fall to three thousand—or even the low twos—like others are saying.

Falling below 4,000 last month was an overreaction driven by panic. I still remain bullish on gold and silver for the second half of the year.

Now the influence of interest rates is back again. Tomorrow I’m preparing for the PPI.

I still expect a rebound across all markets, including U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, and gold as well.

But once this month’s rebound reaches a pretty level, you must gradually convert it into cash.

Seeing Anthropic file for its IPO, the listing timeline might be brought forward. It looks like they’re rushing it to market.

From my perspective, when the market still has high liquidity, I must take profits and cash out.

That’s how we can support the ongoing costs of AI research and development that keep burning money.

Going forward, we need to keep watching the IPO timing of OpenAI and Anthropic—this is the key.$BTC $XAU $XAG

The U.S. intervened to rescue the yen’s exchange rate, but the real reason was to save the U.S. stock market.

Not long ago, the yen had been depreciating steadily.

So much so that the Bank of Japan had to burn through its U.S. dollar reserves—selling dollars to buy yen to support the exchange rate—but the yen still couldn’t hold back the downward slide.

That forced Japan to sell U.S. Treasuries for dollars, then buy even more yen.

This turns into a cycle:

Japan sells U.S. Treasuries → U.S. Treasury yields rise → the chance of the U.S. raising interest rates increases → the U.S. stock market falls.

Now, the U.S. election is coming up in just over three months.

From the Trump administration’s perspective, they have to step in and help Japan a bit.

Put simply, it’s ostensibly to help Japan, but in reality it’s mostly to help the U.S. itself—

to prevent the stock market from falling too badly during the final stretch before the election.

After the U.S. helps Japan pull up the yen, Japan temporarily lowers the necessity of further rate hikes, and for now it doesn’t have to sell massive amounts of U.S. Treasuries.

Since Japan started raising rates in 2024, it still hasn’t been able to fix its own exchange-rate problems.

Especially now that Japan’s imports are greater than its exports: if the exchange rate is bad, the cost of imports rises, and those costs get passed on to prices, causing inflation.

For Japan right now, if it doesn’t sell U.S. Treasuries, there really isn’t any better option.

What the U.S. is doing to help Japan is basically a shot of adrenaline to keep it alive—

at least long enough to get through until before the election without suddenly hiking rates and ending the U.S. stock market that Trump has worked so hard to lift.

As for this U.S. intervention...

My interpretation is that the stock market doesn’t need to worry about a major drop for now—the party still needs to keep dancing for a while. $BTC

How long will the U.S. stocks I bought at the bargain price be held before they’re finally fully cleared? Right now, I’m planning to clear around the end of August.

In mid-June, after deciding to position some U.S. stocks, I thought the market would be extremely difficult.

From the mid-to-late month, once Micron’s earnings report came out, I just kept them and didn’t move much; I also didn’t build a large position.

After the big drop in July, I kept holding steady, waiting to decide after the FOMC meeting.

As it turned out, July went smoothly—I managed to squat at a low point for a wave,

and I also picked up some solid positions, bringing my exposure to about 95%. Now I don’t really have much room for error.

The positions I originally intended to enter in June weren’t meant to be this much,

but because it was such a great opportunity, after thinking it through and assessing the odds, I decided to get on board.

Also, seeing that the BTC ETF has been continuously net inflowing, I added some more exposure by going long with 3x leverage and also adding to MicroStrategy.

Regular readers of my articles should know that I really love to reference the FOMC timeline,

and the next meeting is in mid-September.

Two weeks before the meeting, the price could start going through major volatility.

Personally, I’m more conservative about the market ahead of the election—I see risks, so I plan to clear around the end of August.

At that time, I expect I’ll only keep a portion in “gold,” and I might also set up some short positions.

In the meantime, enjoy the last good times~
$BTC

Lately, I’ve always been bullish on Bitcoin’s bounce, and I still believe there won’t be a major sudden spike-drop in the short term.

Since this year’s bear market began, I’ve helped you ride the waves nine times on spot, and shorted a few times.

The most important battle was in late May, when I went heavily short at 82,000, and then in mid-June I got hit by a big wave.

This kind of big needle in this year’s bear market has happened a total of two times:

one was early February, and the second was early June.

By late May, I thought the bounce was about done. Besides going heavily short, I also bought bearish options.

So when would the third needle spike happen?

In July it’s still quite unclear—not fully certain—but in early July I did see Bitcoin ETFs begin to record net inflows.

Overall, most of July was net inflow time, with a large amount of capital constantly bottom-fishing.

Putting it together with my thoughts on the U.S. stock market:

If I believe that risks should be watched from the 10 months leading up to the election,

then the third big spike is very likely to occur in October as well.

Also, from August until now it’s been net inflows all along.

The rebound’s strength is only so-so, but the whales and the old money have continued to bottom-fish.

This is very consistent with the stage where the bottom is quietly accumulated.

From the whale’s perspective, when bottom-fishing they take it slowly—prices can’t rebound too sharply all at once.

If they directly rocket upward, it would draw the attention of retail traders.

We’re already very close to the bottom.

The level I expect is still around 70,000. If the rebound reaches here, then I’ll sell off the portion that I bottom-fished at the end of the previous month.

Then, a few weeks later, we’ll welcome the third big spike—waiting opportunities will strike hard with bottom-fishing! $BTC

After the non-farm data came out, the investment market is still rebounding upward!

The main reason stocks and gold fell sharply in July is that the market is worried about the risk of more rate hikes.

This round of non-farm payrolls was a huge surprise, because during the World Cup, the labor force in the food service and travel and entertainment industries was doing fairly well.

From the market’s perspective at the time, if the labor market was strong and inflation was running too hot, it was very possible that the Fed would raise rates.

But in the end, the results showed that after the World Cup ended, the labor market still got knocked back to how it was before.

Employment in the overall services sector isn’t good.

If the Fed were to raise rates at this point, it could be bleak—businesses and workers would both face tremendous pressure.

Now the market’s expectations of further rate hikes have dropped a lot, so the investment market has rebounded upward again.

By the end of July, I already went bargain hunting and fully built positions to about 95%.

I believe the market will continue to repair and recover.

Bitcoin and US stocks have also rebounded quite a bit—let’s give it a few more weeks. $BTC

As expected, memory stocks just made a big rebound. After the U.S. market’s “young stock god,” Leopold, fell,

all of his positions surged massively, and Wall Street mercilessly carried another stock god away.

After waking up and seeing Micron and Hynix “revive,” my mood was really great.

I’d been waiting and watching for days, and only yesterday did I finally add to my position. The main reasons were two key points:

Samsung started talking about a memory shortage again,

and the stock god Wall Street has been longing for was also targeted.

I also reflected on my emotions— even though I don’t have many spot holdings, they still dipped enough to make me feel a bit uncomfortable.

So yesterday I decided to rebalance my portfolio and add a bit of leverage.

If we follow this path, I’m very certain that August and September should both be rebound months—but the selloff over these past few weeks is just a warm-up. We may need to be careful before the U.S. election in October.

This time, when Warsh was having a really rough time in the stock market, they didn’t dare be too “hawkish.”

They took a more accommodating stance to avoid a stock market crash affecting the election—at least this round of sentiment can carry over to the next FOMC.

I’ve already posted several rebound updates. Just keep watching for the rebound. $BTC

After being conservative with U.S. stocks for so long, I finally managed to catch a great time to add leverage.

Last month I set up part of my position. Memory accounts for only 10%—Micron 5%, and Hynix 5%.

That’s mainly to hedge in case the stock market crashes, so I don’t end up being the bag-holder.

I carefully got on the train. If it goes up, I drink a little soup; if it drops, I wait until it breaks down further before acting.

During these past few weeks of declines, I didn’t rush to add more. I just did nothing and kept waiting. Opportunities are there only when you wait long enough.

Especially after the FOMC meeting ended: based on Warsh’s overall remarks and the atmosphere among retail investors—full of violent and pessimistic sentiment—

I believe this is now a good moment to add a bit of leverage.

Add to Micron (MU) with 2x leverage, plus a little MicroStrategy.

As for Bitcoin, I still think it will rebound. And with the U.S. stocks getting slaughtered like this over the past few days,

BTC hasn’t really been impacted.

I originally expected a rebound toward around $70,000.

Now I’m even more optimistic. I believe it will rebound even higher.

Just be patient. Good prices are always there for those who wait—whether you’re waiting for a drop or waiting for a rise. $BTC