做交易的墨白

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Previous trading experience sharing videos
1:“逐仓”和“全仓”有何区别？
2:杠杆使用的风险与控制
3:左侧交易与右侧交易的区别

Previous weekly review outlook videos
1:11月第1周行情复盘与下周展望
2:11月第2周行情复盘与下周展望
3:11月第3周行情复盘与下周展望
4:11月第4周行情复盘与下周展望
5:11月第5周行情复盘与下周展望
6:12月第1周行情复盘与下周展望
7:12月第2周行情复盘与下周展望
8:12月第3周行情复盘与下周展望

The first move within a 6-hour timeframe short-term bounce at the 2-hour timeframe level is nearing the end. The price action is extremely weak. For now, it appears that even the local high around 79,400 has not been broken yet, so long positions should be temporarily exited.

Based on the current trend, the probability of green is higher. However, it’s also possible that the move is not following a standard pattern—completing the bounce by slowly grinding higher through low-timeframe, gradual consolidation. So there’s no need to rush to short; wait patiently for the 2-hour timeframe swing bounce to finish before considering the setup for the final move of the 6-hour timeframe short-term decline.

点击回顾上一期观点
The first chart is the 6-hour timeframe, and the second chart is the 30-minute timeframe.

I didn’t place an order today, just watched the market all day. This drop didn’t get filled—should I be sorry? A bit, but to go further, I have to do this; otherwise, I’ll fall into the trap of chasing and killing in low-cycle momentum.

Yesterday I shared a view labeled “possibly” (view two), but now it looks like the earliest judgment was correct. The market is still running ahead of view one—meaning that the high point around 81,000 was the short-term top. This morning, during the rebound, it forcibly pulled up to make a new high as a stop-loss move;

Since price has returned to above view one, we can’t chase short here. It’s very likely you’d be shorting right near the bottom. This is because the first pullback adjustment within the rally from 63,000 to 81,000 is about to finish.

Soon we’ll move into a medium-cycle short-term rebound—specifically, the rebound during the 【major pullback】 process of the rally from 63,000 to 81,000.
#比特币跌破77000美元

Trading on orders hit a Waterloo: the maximum drawdown reached 17%. The pullback hasn’t gone smoothly; I’ll take a little rest for now. For the moment, I’m not participating in either swing trades or short-term trades—I’m trying to find an opportunity for scalp trades to get back a couple of bites of blood.

My first viewpoint issued this week was that the market would directly unfold a pullback of medium-to-high time-cycle swings, or that the lower-to-medium cycle would need another push before topping, and then the medium-to-high cycle swing pullback would start (Viewpoint 1).
点击查看观点一

Now it looks very likely to have evolved into Viewpoint 2. Around 79,600 has already topped. This is because the market strength was too great, causing the rebound during the pullback to set a new high. It’s currently starting a new round of 2-hour level swing uptrend.

For me personally, this kind of market isn’t comfortable to trade. My follow-trading friends can see that over the past few days, all the positions are in profit, but because the structure of the lower time-cycle price action isn’t very standard, none of them took profit with stop orders. At the peak, the losses were only less than 6%. So the next actions will be as said at the beginning: trade a few scalps casually for small intraday short orders to recover some. I’ll wait until the market movement becomes smoother before doing short-term or swing trades.
#比特币升破8万美元创三月新高

Is anyone joining the group? Cheap
#比特币受阻于81000美元50周均线

Let me share the order-following situation and the trading plan. I already posted the viewpoint just now, so I won’t repeat it—I'll explain the trading logic instead.

The peak of this wave of order-following was around 20,000U; it’s currently around 17,500U, down about 12.5%. This is the biggest drawdown in the past half year. The last time it was about 10% was during the drop from 82,000 to 59,000.

A group member asked why I didn’t do scalp trades to recoup some losses. I’ll use this to reply to everyone who follows me and friends who are copying my trades.

Trading has to be based on expectations. Before the breakout, I’ve kept holding the short positions because I still expected a “deep pullback,” so I kept holding to avoid letting emotions get the better of me and blindly cutting at the top.

But if it breaks through and pulls back into that mid-year 82,000 peak range, then the probability of a sideways consolidation will rise significantly. At that point, I can short as well—but then it would only be suitable for short-term trades, because the sideways consolidation expectation has increased.

Conversely, if it rises above 80,000 but it’s not consolidating sideways and instead breaks back below the 76,000 support again, then I would still hold onto the short positions long-term.

In short: the trades and the viewpoint must match, and they need to be adjusted continuously.
#比特币周涨23.6%

The current trend shows some conflict between high- and low-timeframe cycles. After six days and two days of sideways movement, the low-timeframe can be regarded as having completed its correction. From here, it’s possible at any moment to continue with a new 2-hour short-term bullish move; however, from the high-timeframe perspective, the indicators have just turned, and a 6-hour wave-level pullback could also unfold at any time.

As shown in Figure 1, a 6-hour wave-level correction can be initiated directly here. But the expectation is that it won’t crash; it would only be a correction of the move that started from 63,000. As long as this correction doesn’t directly turn into a crash, after the correction ends we should continue to look for upside.

As shown in Figure 2, if the six-to-two days of sideways action is actually the low-timeframe correction, then here we would expect a short-term upswing. Wait until this cycle’s upward move is completely finished, and then begin the adjustment. In addition, the probability of a sideways correction is considered higher than the probability of a downside correction.

In summary, you don’t have to bet that a correction will immediately unfold from here and short at this point. But it’s also not recommended to bet that price will continue to surge sharply upward and chase longs right at this level. You can wait for the yellow scenario in Figure 2 to play out first, and then go long.

PS: Put into plain language, the market is about to start a correction. But before that, it may still make one more small upward push. If you want to go long, it’s better to wait for a better moment or a better price; it’s not really recommended to chase longs immediately. #比特币突破76000

Speak and laws follow?

Yesterday daytime, BTC first rose, completing the short-squeeze on the way, then turned and pulled back—but at that moment, ETH started pumping, dragging the price and not allowing a pullback;

This morning, ETH pumped and broke above 2500 for a moment. After triggering the “integer loss,” SOL then started pumping too, and again there was no room for a pullback;

I guessed it wouldn’t be possible to control the market like this forever, but I didn’t expect the drop to be this fast and this vicious. The main players are really good at switching hands.

@理想学院—枝枝 Do you have any shame? You’re even washing copy that’s losing money? Just copy it once, have the AI generate it, and then post it exactly as-is? At least change the price and the timing!

Broke through 78000—it's already returned to the 78-82 consolidation range around the previous rebound highs. The short position base as well was also closed for now, to avoid a direct move up toward around 82000;

If it breaks through here, it won't be easy to short anymore. You can only try to look for short-term opportunities. Since it has returned to the top range again, expectations for a downside pullback won't be as strong; the most likely scenario is consolidation with a pullback.
#BTC突破78000

The rebound is a bit higher than expected. We need to watch how the price breaks through the 72,000 level next week—whether it’s a genuine breakout or just a way to mess with the short sellers.

In general, if it’s a real breakout, the pullback will almost certainly be reflected through a consolidation pattern, directly consolidating in the 72,000–75,000 range.

If it’s a fake breakout, the retracement will be very severe—possibly even dropping back to around 68,000.

Because usually there isn’t much movement on the weekend, that’s why we need to observe next week; otherwise, within just 3–4 days it would be almost over.
#BTC突破$72000

Have you all received the email?

Don’t transfer coins from Huobi HTX to Binance.

Also don’t withdraw coins from Binance to Huobi.

To prevent asset loss
#Binance does not support HTX

I took partial profits in stages. My view is still that it will rise, but not by a lot. I still consider this as a rebound within a bear market.

Subjectively, I think this move is very likely to resemble the previous action near 82,000: during the rebound’s absolute peak, SOL and ETH top out before BTC. After that, BTC starts to drag sideways—once that churning phase is about over, the whole thing may drop like a waterfall together. It might end up dragging into early September.

PS: The managed account has become profitable again to 100%. I’ll take a couple days off and rest, and see whether it keeps breaking out or just consolidates in place.
#BTC突破66500

SOL took profit, but BTC still hasn't shown any signs of a breakout. Today SOL and ETH both made new highs again.😭😭😭
#比特币ETF净流入

You should go all-in and take out a bit more money, then, go all-in!
#比特币ETF资金持续流入

Dreaming Back to 2018: back then, before there were even any live “coin” trading accounts, Teacher KINGKONG was already livestreaming million-dollar live trades on the [Yi Zhi Bo] platform to prove that he was different from most “hot air” analysts in the coin world / on Jinse Cai Jing at the time.
To deepen your understanding of trading and build a basic trading system, you can follow Teacher Xingxing’s livestreams from Monday to Friday.

Unbelievable—after 8 years of marriage, all 3 children aren’t biologically his.

The man probably is hung up on old feelings, so he only claims compensation for emotional distress and the child support for those 8 years. That’s already very restrained and respectful of the law.

But the woman is only willing to pay 30,000. She says it’s because the three children have all been raised by the mother-in-law. So she’s offering 10,000 per child as emotional distress compensation. She doesn’t want to pay the child support for the past 8 years.

Aren’t you really afraid that the man will get emotional and suddenly wipe out your entire family’s household registration?

A quick reminder for everyone

If you’re trading other instruments with higher relative volatility based on BTC’s price action, it’s not recommended to trade SOL recently. On the higher timeframes, it hit the bottom first. When BTC was around the 58,000 range, SOL followed up but didn’t really follow down. In the past six days, it even tried to sneak out ahead.

In the past week or so, there has also been a divergence on lower timeframes. Specifically at the 5–15 minute level: when BTC is rising, SOL just won’t move, or may even dip slightly. When BTC is falling, SOL is extremely sturdy, and it can even quietly run upward.

So if you want to trade it, look at SOL on its own—don’t combine it with BTC. Especially if you’re going short, it may—just like last time—take off upward early.
#BTC流动性差

What is Sun Ge trying to do? A couple of days ago he was still joking that Sun Ge has no credibility in the crypto circle, but this is too despicable, isn’t it?
#HTX向Coinbase投毒