Mek
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Mek
Trader Institutional & Analyst since 2018 · Binance KOL & BNBChain Martian. Building at Web3 and Sovereign Infrastructure.
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Get ready for volatility. 🚨
The VIX fell to 14.9 points on Friday, the lowest level since January. And now it enters right into the time of year when volatility historically rises.
Between 1990 and 2025, the U.S. stock market volatility index averaged about 21 points in September, rising to around 23 in October and November.
Even excluding the 2008 crisis and the 2020 crash, September through November remains a period of elevated volatility in most years.
If the seasonal pattern repeats, we could see two turbulent months in global markets. But will it be up or down? We'll see...
The VIX fell to 14.9 points on Friday, the lowest level since January. And now it enters right into the time of year when volatility historically rises.
Between 1990 and 2025, the U.S. stock market volatility index averaged about 21 points in September, rising to around 23 in October and November.
Even excluding the 2008 crisis and the 2020 crash, September through November remains a period of elevated volatility in most years.
If the seasonal pattern repeats, we could see two turbulent months in global markets. But will it be up or down? We'll see...
Verified
STRATEGY SELLS MORE BITCOIN 🚨
A total of 1.690 BTC were sold between August 3 and 9, for US$ 108,6 million, at an average price of US$ 64.262. The company’s historical average purchase price is US$ 75.385.
This specific sale resulted in a loss versus the average cost of the position, and the money was used to repurchase the preferred share STRC, which continues trading below par value, and to strengthen the company’s dollar reserve.
A total of 1.690 BTC were sold between August 3 and 9, for US$ 108,6 million, at an average price of US$ 64.262. The company’s historical average purchase price is US$ 75.385.
This specific sale resulted in a loss versus the average cost of the position, and the money was used to repurchase the preferred share STRC, which continues trading below par value, and to strengthen the company’s dollar reserve.
17 straight days of inflows into gold ETFs in China, and now hedge funds are also betting heavily.
Chinese investors bought US$ 296 million in gold ETFs on Thursday alone, the second-largest daily flow in at least 3 months.
Over the course of the streak, inflows already total US$ 1.7 billion.
At the same time, CFTC data shows that hedge funds and asset managers increased their bullish bets on gold to the highest level in more than 6 months in the week ending August 4.
Capital flows on both ends of the world moving in the same direction.
Chinese investors bought US$ 296 million in gold ETFs on Thursday alone, the second-largest daily flow in at least 3 months.
Over the course of the streak, inflows already total US$ 1.7 billion.
At the same time, CFTC data shows that hedge funds and asset managers increased their bullish bets on gold to the highest level in more than 6 months in the week ending August 4.
Capital flows on both ends of the world moving in the same direction.
See translation
Questão de sobrevivência.
Tirar o estado do seu dinheiro é questão de sobrevivência para o brasileiro médio.
Não é questão de "luxar". Muito menos de apenas ter uma "aposentadoria".
É questão de sobrevivência.
Não deixe para se preocupar "depois". A janela está se fechando
Tirar o estado do seu dinheiro é questão de sobrevivência para o brasileiro médio.
Não é questão de "luxar". Muito menos de apenas ter uma "aposentadoria".
É questão de sobrevivência.
Não deixe para se preocupar "depois". A janela está se fechando
Verified
The US unemployment rate fell, but not because more people got jobs. 🚨
It was because more people gave up looking.
The July payroll came in negative, a loss of 23 thousand jobs, well below the forecast of +83 thousand. May and June combined were revised downward by an additional 103 thousand jobs more than what was already known.
The labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%, the lowest level in more than 5 years.
It was that decline—not job creation—that pushed unemployment from 4.2% to 4.1%.
A labor market losing momentum at the same time that unemployment “improves” in an artificial way is exactly the kind of combination that strips ammunition from those defending a tougher Fed.
The forward interest-rate curve is re-pricing with a lower probability of rate hikes in September.
It was because more people gave up looking.
The July payroll came in negative, a loss of 23 thousand jobs, well below the forecast of +83 thousand. May and June combined were revised downward by an additional 103 thousand jobs more than what was already known.
The labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%, the lowest level in more than 5 years.
It was that decline—not job creation—that pushed unemployment from 4.2% to 4.1%.
A labor market losing momentum at the same time that unemployment “improves” in an artificial way is exactly the kind of combination that strips ammunition from those defending a tougher Fed.
The forward interest-rate curve is re-pricing with a lower probability of rate hikes in September.
Partly True
Chinese investor returned to BUYING GOLD 🚨
Selling pressure remained between June and July, but reversed into buying in 14 straight sessions up to Monday.
The longest streak in 4 months.
According to Bloomberg, China’s gold ETFs received more than 8 billion yuan, about US$ 1 billion, over this period.
Before that, the flow had been negative for most of June and all of July.
The turnaround didn’t come slowly. A single day within this streak accounted for more than 2 billion yuan by itself—the biggest daily jump on the entire chart.
Selling pressure remained between June and July, but reversed into buying in 14 straight sessions up to Monday.
The longest streak in 4 months.
According to Bloomberg, China’s gold ETFs received more than 8 billion yuan, about US$ 1 billion, over this period.
Before that, the flow had been negative for most of June and all of July.
The turnaround didn’t come slowly. A single day within this streak accounted for more than 2 billion yuan by itself—the biggest daily jump on the entire chart.
This is one of the most incredible Bitcoin charts I’ve ever seen. 🔥
Even though it’s complex to build, it’s pretty simple to explain.
Each line represents a group of bitcoins classified by how long they stayed idle. The lower lines are purchases from this week, the upper lines were purchases from a decade ago.
What we extract here is that no investor accumulated losses after holding through more than one cycle.
And note that the same losses pattern emerged in all advanced stages of the bear market (i.e. funds).
Buy when tourists are in losses.
Hold for a cycle.
Repeat.
Even though it’s complex to build, it’s pretty simple to explain.
Each line represents a group of bitcoins classified by how long they stayed idle. The lower lines are purchases from this week, the upper lines were purchases from a decade ago.
What we extract here is that no investor accumulated losses after holding through more than one cycle.
And note that the same losses pattern emerged in all advanced stages of the bear market (i.e. funds).
Buy when tourists are in losses.
Hold for a cycle.
Repeat.
Verified
89% of the world’s central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months. 🚨
South Korea, which has been on hold for 13 years, has just joined this list.
The Bank of Korea will begin buying physical gold again—stored within the country itself—after more than a decade of being paused.
Just in the 2nd quarter, central banks purchased 289 metric tons of gold worldwide, the strongest second quarter ever recorded.
The crisis of confidence in sovereign debt and fiat currency isn’t only external. Central banks themselves are signaling this.
Gold addresses part of it. Bitcoin resolves the whole issue, because the reserve doesn’t depend on where it’s physically stored.
South Korea, which has been on hold for 13 years, has just joined this list.
The Bank of Korea will begin buying physical gold again—stored within the country itself—after more than a decade of being paused.
Just in the 2nd quarter, central banks purchased 289 metric tons of gold worldwide, the strongest second quarter ever recorded.
The crisis of confidence in sovereign debt and fiat currency isn’t only external. Central banks themselves are signaling this.
Gold addresses part of it. Bitcoin resolves the whole issue, because the reserve doesn’t depend on where it’s physically stored.
WAVE OF AI-POWERED ATTACKS GOES BEYOND CRYPTO🚨
Citadel, Point72, and Two Sigma were hit by the same attack wave in recent days. It wasn’t through a technical exploit—it came via a phone call.
According to Bloomberg, the hackers used AI vishing, cloning voice, tone, and speech patterns of real people to convince employees to grant access.
Two Sigma, which manages US$ 75 billions, said it blocked the attack in time.
This isn’t an isolated case or exclusive to crypto. The same week that the Coldcard was drained due to an entropy failure in firmware, the traditional financial sector was attacked through social engineering supercharged by AI.
Different vectors, same root cause: AI is making it cheaper to launch attacks at scale that only the state could previously afford.
Security is no longer just about protecting the key. It’s now about protecting who has access to the key.
Have you reviewed your security measures?
Citadel, Point72, and Two Sigma were hit by the same attack wave in recent days. It wasn’t through a technical exploit—it came via a phone call.
According to Bloomberg, the hackers used AI vishing, cloning voice, tone, and speech patterns of real people to convince employees to grant access.
Two Sigma, which manages US$ 75 billions, said it blocked the attack in time.
This isn’t an isolated case or exclusive to crypto. The same week that the Coldcard was drained due to an entropy failure in firmware, the traditional financial sector was attacked through social engineering supercharged by AI.
Different vectors, same root cause: AI is making it cheaper to launch attacks at scale that only the state could previously afford.
Security is no longer just about protecting the key. It’s now about protecting who has access to the key.
Have you reviewed your security measures?
COLD CARD CASE: 64 bitcoin hacks are being mixed right now.🚨
The mixing pattern is quite easy to visually identify, as I attached below.
The funds were sent to this address: bc1pynd6vswmxkghw6k5463xwcj7el7u4tpl2t2pnh0s8llmc2wgzfqsdu7h92 and later mixed.
First, 10 BTC were mixed, and then smaller transactions of less than 7 BTC, which were
I believe this is a Coinjoin address from Wasabiwallet and the funds are already being propagated on the network.
With each new mixing round, it becomes harder to trace the original source and eventually these UTXOs will be mixed with “normal” coins.
I expanded some transactions for you to see visually, but it’s a “never-ending” path and identifying output addresses takes a lot of manual time.
Probably many of you thought, “ah, but these hackers won’t be able to spend these funds because everyone is watching them.” Well, I wouldn’t be so sure.
The most likely scenario is that these coins are not remixed across different waves and then sent to DeFi protocols with swaps to other coins, where the attackers can use crypto cards or exchanges via USDC/USD/ or other tokens (which no longer have any connection to the original BTCs) to withdraw/spend.
The mixing pattern is quite easy to visually identify, as I attached below.
The funds were sent to this address: bc1pynd6vswmxkghw6k5463xwcj7el7u4tpl2t2pnh0s8llmc2wgzfqsdu7h92 and later mixed.
First, 10 BTC were mixed, and then smaller transactions of less than 7 BTC, which were
I believe this is a Coinjoin address from Wasabiwallet and the funds are already being propagated on the network.
With each new mixing round, it becomes harder to trace the original source and eventually these UTXOs will be mixed with “normal” coins.
I expanded some transactions for you to see visually, but it’s a “never-ending” path and identifying output addresses takes a lot of manual time.
Probably many of you thought, “ah, but these hackers won’t be able to spend these funds because everyone is watching them.” Well, I wouldn’t be so sure.
The most likely scenario is that these coins are not remixed across different waves and then sent to DeFi protocols with swaps to other coins, where the attackers can use crypto cards or exchanges via USDC/USD/ or other tokens (which no longer have any connection to the original BTCs) to withdraw/spend.
Do you know how to tell apart a portfolio manager building a position from a trading desk doing trades?
In one day, Bitcoin ETFs lost US$ 265 million.
The next day, they captured US$ 170 million.
That’s institutional trading tactically. It doesn’t require institutional commitment to return.
There’s a clear difference:
A wealth manager building a position → buys every week, month after month, regardless of the price.
A trading desk → enters and exits in blocks when the timing seems right.
The first is conviction. The second is opportunism.
In 2024, IBIT inflows were consistent.
They arrived almost every day, in similar sizes. It was strategic allocation happening.
In 2026, July closed positive at US$ 172 million.
But the result came from just a few days of big inflows, interspersed with equally big outflows.
Institutional volume is back.
Conviction, not yet.
In one day, Bitcoin ETFs lost US$ 265 million.
The next day, they captured US$ 170 million.
That’s institutional trading tactically. It doesn’t require institutional commitment to return.
There’s a clear difference:
A wealth manager building a position → buys every week, month after month, regardless of the price.
A trading desk → enters and exits in blocks when the timing seems right.
The first is conviction. The second is opportunism.
In 2024, IBIT inflows were consistent.
They arrived almost every day, in similar sizes. It was strategic allocation happening.
In 2026, July closed positive at US$ 172 million.
But the result came from just a few days of big inflows, interspersed with equally big outflows.
Institutional volume is back.
Conviction, not yet.
BTC-1.95%
IBITETF-1.59%
Historically, this kind of extreme reading on the full panel appeared around the end of 2015, 2019, and 2022—always before the price reversal shows up on the chart, never after.
How many of these 41 indicators need to leave the capitulation zone before the market admits that the worst is already behind us?
A lot of people will be choosing narratives to base their decisions on, while there are dozens of quantitative, public, and auditable data points that can be used.
This study was published by glassnode, but many others are available as well.
"ah, but Hormuz"
"ah, but the LTB"
"ah, but the 4-year cycle"
"ah, but bla bla bla"
Data > narratives.
How many of these 41 indicators need to leave the capitulation zone before the market admits that the worst is already behind us?
A lot of people will be choosing narratives to base their decisions on, while there are dozens of quantitative, public, and auditable data points that can be used.
This study was published by glassnode, but many others are available as well.
"ah, but Hormuz"
"ah, but the LTB"
"ah, but the 4-year cycle"
"ah, but bla bla bla"
Data > narratives.
This is how an on-chain background training setup takes shape in Bitcoin. 🔥
41 of the 45 Bitcoin on-chain indicators are in the two lowest quintiles of the historical series of this Glassnode study.
This is capitulation reading, not normal correction.
The Cycle Composite, a 0-to-100 score that summarizes the entire cycle, is at 19.9. Three months ago, most indicators were in a neutral or lukewarm zone.
It’s important to remember that some coin-age indicators have changed their structural behavior over time, mainly due to institutional custody rotation—so looking at a single metric can be misleading.
That’s why confluence setups across multiple indicators usually work better for identifying these patterns in the current market.
Are you really paying attention?
41 of the 45 Bitcoin on-chain indicators are in the two lowest quintiles of the historical series of this Glassnode study.
This is capitulation reading, not normal correction.
The Cycle Composite, a 0-to-100 score that summarizes the entire cycle, is at 19.9. Three months ago, most indicators were in a neutral or lukewarm zone.
It’s important to remember that some coin-age indicators have changed their structural behavior over time, mainly due to institutional custody rotation—so looking at a single metric can be misleading.
That’s why confluence setups across multiple indicators usually work better for identifying these patterns in the current market.
Are you really paying attention?
INVESTORS ACCELERATED INTO RISK ASSETS 🚨
US$ 75 billion in 5 weeks. Not even at the 2021 peak did the tech-fund inflow accelerate at this pace.
There were 4 straight weeks with inflows above US$ 10 billion, including US$ 15.7 billion just in the last week—the third-largest weekly flow ever recorded.
The 4-week moving average hit a record at US$ 14 billion, 115% above the 2025 record and 180% above the 2021 peak.
This return of capital appears to indicate that the correction in tech indexes was a pause, not an end to the trend.
Bitcoin historically follows this kind of institutional risk appetite, usually with a lag.
US$ 75 billion in 5 weeks. Not even at the 2021 peak did the tech-fund inflow accelerate at this pace.
There were 4 straight weeks with inflows above US$ 10 billion, including US$ 15.7 billion just in the last week—the third-largest weekly flow ever recorded.
The 4-week moving average hit a record at US$ 14 billion, 115% above the 2025 record and 180% above the 2021 peak.
This return of capital appears to indicate that the correction in tech indexes was a pause, not an end to the trend.
Bitcoin historically follows this kind of institutional risk appetite, usually with a lag.
Bear Market in full steam on digital assets! 🚨
US$ 100 billion were traded in a single day in February. This week, the daily average barely topped US$ 15 billion.
According to Kaiko, which tracks 44 spot exchanges, this is the lowest daily volume of the year, down 70% from January’s peak.
The moving average has also dropped by half since December, to US$ 20 billion.
Trading at this level, in a downward trend, normally isn’t panic. It’s apathy—the market is going out to watch rather than trade.
And a low-liquidity bear market tends to react more violently to the next real trigger, whether it’s good or bad, precisely because there’s less volume to absorb the shock.
Get ready for volatility—we can see it’s more than likely we’ll have some action soon.
US$ 100 billion were traded in a single day in February. This week, the daily average barely topped US$ 15 billion.
According to Kaiko, which tracks 44 spot exchanges, this is the lowest daily volume of the year, down 70% from January’s peak.
The moving average has also dropped by half since December, to US$ 20 billion.
Trading at this level, in a downward trend, normally isn’t panic. It’s apathy—the market is going out to watch rather than trade.
And a low-liquidity bear market tends to react more violently to the next real trigger, whether it’s good or bad, precisely because there’s less volume to absorb the shock.
Get ready for volatility—we can see it’s more than likely we’ll have some action soon.
Calm should come to an end soon.
Generally, when we have realized volatility over 2 weeks so low like this in bitcoin, it doesn’t take long for a new volatility expansion period.
This pattern of volatility reduction happens after expansion periods, mainly after capitulations.
If you’re feeling bored with the current price, rest assured it may not take long for things to get agitated again.
Given the setup I addressed in my Friday video, I’d guess that this start of volatility will begin with a "trap" first.
Generally, when we have realized volatility over 2 weeks so low like this in bitcoin, it doesn’t take long for a new volatility expansion period.
This pattern of volatility reduction happens after expansion periods, mainly after capitulations.
If you’re feeling bored with the current price, rest assured it may not take long for things to get agitated again.
Given the setup I addressed in my Friday video, I’d guess that this start of volatility will begin with a "trap" first.
Verified
Trump Media returns to SELL BITCOIN 🚨
The company bought 11,542 BTC ($1.37 billion) at an average price of $118,522 before starting to sell 7 months ago
A total of 7,281 BTC ($545 million) have already been sold at an average price of $74,855.
As a result, Trump’s company now has a total BTC loss of $555 million.
The company bought 11,542 BTC ($1.37 billion) at an average price of $118,522 before starting to sell 7 months ago
A total of 7,281 BTC ($545 million) have already been sold at an average price of $74,855.
As a result, Trump’s company now has a total BTC loss of $555 million.
Verified
The biggest RETAIL CAPITULATION in tech stocks in HISTORY.
U.S. retail sold US$ 643 million net in technology shares between Monday and Wednesday, the fastest selling pace ever recorded in this dataset.
Retail selling at this volume—after years of buying every dip—historically signals conviction exhaustion, not a rational exit.
When a short-term investor leaves the market that quickly, usually the other side of the trade benefits.
I’ve seen this happen many times in Bitcoin. And it’s happening now, too.
U.S. retail sold US$ 643 million net in technology shares between Monday and Wednesday, the fastest selling pace ever recorded in this dataset.
Retail selling at this volume—after years of buying every dip—historically signals conviction exhaustion, not a rational exit.
When a short-term investor leaves the market that quickly, usually the other side of the trade benefits.
I’ve seen this happen many times in Bitcoin. And it’s happening now, too.
COLDCARD reports VULNERABILITY and users are losing BITCOIN 🚨
Approximately 594 BTC, worth about $$ 38 million, were swept from 500 addresses in the first 25 minutes.
If you have funds there, consider TRANSFERRING.
Approximately 594 BTC, worth about $$ 38 million, were swept from 500 addresses in the first 25 minutes.
If you have funds there, consider TRANSFERRING.
$2 billion contract in gold, oil and US stocks already circulating within a crypto exchange. 🔥
That doubled in two months.
Just @binance alone controls 35% of this TradFi perpetual volume—the same share it already dominates in traditional crypto perps.
Traditional assets close at night and on weekends, while perps on a crypto exchange never close. The gold and oil trader is migrating to a product that runs 24 hours.
This is the same pattern we already covered this week, with tokenized stock growing fast in emerging markets, and with B3 launching its own stablecoin.
Crypto infrastructure is absorbing volume that previously only existed inside traditional brokerages.
Brazilian investors can now access gold, oil and US stocks without depending on market hours or an international broker—everything within the same exchange they already use for bitcoin.
That doubled in two months.
Just @binance alone controls 35% of this TradFi perpetual volume—the same share it already dominates in traditional crypto perps.
Traditional assets close at night and on weekends, while perps on a crypto exchange never close. The gold and oil trader is migrating to a product that runs 24 hours.
This is the same pattern we already covered this week, with tokenized stock growing fast in emerging markets, and with B3 launching its own stablecoin.
Crypto infrastructure is absorbing volume that previously only existed inside traditional brokerages.
Brazilian investors can now access gold, oil and US stocks without depending on market hours or an international broker—everything within the same exchange they already use for bitcoin.
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