Mek
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Mek
Trader Institutional & Analyst since 2018 · Binance KOL & BNBChain Martian. Building at Web3 and Sovereign Infrastructure.
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"friendly reminder" that September brings the weakest accumulated performance of Bitcoin when looking from 2015 to today.
But as you go through this period, there are the 3 best months in history.
We’re very close to a new peak in volatility.
Place your bets.
But as you go through this period, there are the 3 best months in history.
We’re very close to a new peak in volatility.
Place your bets.
Verified
3.3% of the USA’s GDP is interest payments on the debt. the highest level in history.
They spend more on interest than on defense.
Anyone who thinks the Fed can raise rates much higher just ignores the fiscal factor (or doesn’t understand economics).
Peak Hawkish + liquidity is coming
They spend more on interest than on defense.
Anyone who thinks the Fed can raise rates much higher just ignores the fiscal factor (or doesn’t understand economics).
Peak Hawkish + liquidity is coming
The American job market is weaker than it seems.🚨
Excluding the pandemic, the American workforce is at its lowest level since March 1976. This doesn’t show up in the unemployment number everyone looks at.
The participation rate fell 0.1 percentage point in July to 61.4%. It was the 7th monthly decline in 8 months, a cumulative drop of 1.1 points.
Since November, more than 2.4 million people have left the workforce, including 264 thousand just in July and 720 thousand in June.
People leaving the workforce don’t count as unemployed. They simply disappear from the count—which is why the unemployment rate can look stable while the real job market is shrinking underneath.
Excluding the pandemic, the American workforce is at its lowest level since March 1976. This doesn’t show up in the unemployment number everyone looks at.
The participation rate fell 0.1 percentage point in July to 61.4%. It was the 7th monthly decline in 8 months, a cumulative drop of 1.1 points.
Since November, more than 2.4 million people have left the workforce, including 264 thousand just in July and 720 thousand in June.
People leaving the workforce don’t count as unemployed. They simply disappear from the count—which is why the unemployment rate can look stable while the real job market is shrinking underneath.
Performance of the Brazilian real isn’t strength—it’s leverage.
The cost of borrowing Japanese yen is one of the lowest on the planet. While the interest rate on the real is one of the highest.
Carry trade is propping up the Brazilian real, but will that last for much longer?
The cost of borrowing Japanese yen is one of the lowest on the planet. While the interest rate on the real is one of the highest.
Carry trade is propping up the Brazilian real, but will that last for much longer?
Advanced traders are holding the largest net LONG position in bitcoin in history. 🔥
In traditional commodities, the “smart money” is usually the commercial trader, who uses the asset in the real operations of the business.
Bitcoin has no such players at a relevant scale, so the large non-commercial speculator takes on that role in the CFTC report.
Note that this type of participant has often been heavily net long right from local bottom regions since 2022
In traditional commodities, the “smart money” is usually the commercial trader, who uses the asset in the real operations of the business.
Bitcoin has no such players at a relevant scale, so the large non-commercial speculator takes on that role in the CFTC report.
Note that this type of participant has often been heavily net long right from local bottom regions since 2022
"bitcoin will probably be closer to $100 than to $100k in 2028"
That’s what Harvard’s economist said in 2018.
This makes me remember that degrees aren’t the same thing as intelligence.
Knowledge isn’t the same thing as intelligence.
There are 2 years left until his prediction, and my bet is that we’ll be well above $100,000.
That’s what Harvard’s economist said in 2018.
This makes me remember that degrees aren’t the same thing as intelligence.
Knowledge isn’t the same thing as intelligence.
There are 2 years left until his prediction, and my bet is that we’ll be well above $100,000.
Few people paying attention to one of the most important macro charts of today.👇
The Surprise Index in Jobs and Inflation tends to lead the Fed’s discourse in about 1 month.
Both are already coming in on the downside.
Whoever is betting on a more "restrictive" Fed in the future is simply ignoring the data.
We’re probably at the PEAK of the hawkish narrative.
Liquidity is coming
The Surprise Index in Jobs and Inflation tends to lead the Fed’s discourse in about 1 month.
Both are already coming in on the downside.
Whoever is betting on a more "restrictive" Fed in the future is simply ignoring the data.
We’re probably at the PEAK of the hawkish narrative.
Liquidity is coming
The share of tokenized stock in the total market value of real assets (RWA) increased from approximately 1.4% to more than 15% over the year (from July 2025 to July 2026).
Bitcoin spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019. 🚨
Even excluding Binance from the calculation, daily volume is below what was seen in 2023—a period that marked the lowest point of that entire cycle.
Low interest in crypto can be a major risk for volatile moves, since it reduces liquidity in order books.
But it can also be a great opportunity for those who position themselves correctly.
Even excluding Binance from the calculation, daily volume is below what was seen in 2023—a period that marked the lowest point of that entire cycle.
Low interest in crypto can be a major risk for volatile moves, since it reduces liquidity in order books.
But it can also be a great opportunity for those who position themselves correctly.
Verified
The July CPI came in line with expectations, but with a slowdown.🚨
The core increased by 0.2% in the month, within expectations, but above June's 0%. On a year-over-year basis, the core fell from 2.6% to 2.5%.
The headline index rose 0.1% in the month, reversing June's -0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, it fell from 3.5% to 3.4%.
The Fed has fewer arguments to support further cuts.
"Peak Hawkish", as I already mentioned here.
The core increased by 0.2% in the month, within expectations, but above June's 0%. On a year-over-year basis, the core fell from 2.6% to 2.5%.
The headline index rose 0.1% in the month, reversing June's -0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, it fell from 3.5% to 3.4%.
The Fed has fewer arguments to support further cuts.
"Peak Hawkish", as I already mentioned here.
In 2022, bitcoin fell -75% versus gold.
This took 437 days from the peak to the bottom.
In the current cycle, bitcoin has lost -69% versus gold and took 433 days for that to happen.
The probability is high that bitcoin has already formed a bottom versus gold.
In 2022, after the bottom, BTC rose +340% versus gold.
Do the math.
This took 437 days from the peak to the bottom.
In the current cycle, bitcoin has lost -69% versus gold and took 433 days for that to happen.
The probability is high that bitcoin has already formed a bottom versus gold.
In 2022, after the bottom, BTC rose +340% versus gold.
Do the math.
The Coldcard hack and the FTX breach have similar on-chain patterns in Bitcoin.
The RHODL Ratio compares a coin that has been sitting idle for years with a coin that has been moved in the last 3 months.
It rises when a lot of old coins change addresses all at once—and that’s exactly what the Coldcard hack forced.
It’s the same kind of event that FTX triggered in 2022: mass migration due to loss of trust in custody, but this time because of a hardware failure, not an exchange collapse.
That urgency to move funds also showed up in the funds from 2019 and 2015.
Many people didn’t understand the magnitude of this event.
The RHODL Ratio compares a coin that has been sitting idle for years with a coin that has been moved in the last 3 months.
It rises when a lot of old coins change addresses all at once—and that’s exactly what the Coldcard hack forced.
It’s the same kind of event that FTX triggered in 2022: mass migration due to loss of trust in custody, but this time because of a hardware failure, not an exchange collapse.
That urgency to move funds also showed up in the funds from 2019 and 2015.
Many people didn’t understand the magnitude of this event.
Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US saw their largest weekly inflow since April 🔥
US$ 850 million in one week.
The flow was negative for most of June and July, with weeks of outflows exceeding US$ 1.5 billion in at least two moments during that period.
August reversed this streak. Is this the start of the turnaround?
US$ 850 million in one week.
The flow was negative for most of June and July, with weeks of outflows exceeding US$ 1.5 billion in at least two moments during that period.
August reversed this streak. Is this the start of the turnaround?
We are living through the third-largest exodus of bitcoin miners in history. 🚨
The current drop of -18% in network difficulty is only not bigger than the bottom of the 2018 bear market and the 2021 ban on mining in China.
Bitcoin miners are shutting down machines in stress and many of them are migrating to AI infrastructure.
The current drop of -18% in network difficulty is only not bigger than the bottom of the 2018 bear market and the 2021 ban on mining in China.
Bitcoin miners are shutting down machines in stress and many of them are migrating to AI infrastructure.
Get ready for volatility. 🚨
The VIX fell to 14.9 points on Friday, the lowest level since January. And now it enters right into the time of year when volatility historically rises.
Between 1990 and 2025, the U.S. stock market volatility index averaged about 21 points in September, rising to around 23 in October and November.
Even excluding the 2008 crisis and the 2020 crash, September through November remains a period of elevated volatility in most years.
If the seasonal pattern repeats, we could see two turbulent months in global markets. But will it be up or down? We'll see...
The VIX fell to 14.9 points on Friday, the lowest level since January. And now it enters right into the time of year when volatility historically rises.
Between 1990 and 2025, the U.S. stock market volatility index averaged about 21 points in September, rising to around 23 in October and November.
Even excluding the 2008 crisis and the 2020 crash, September through November remains a period of elevated volatility in most years.
If the seasonal pattern repeats, we could see two turbulent months in global markets. But will it be up or down? We'll see...
Verified
STRATEGY SELLS MORE BITCOIN 🚨
A total of 1.690 BTC were sold between August 3 and 9, for US$ 108,6 million, at an average price of US$ 64.262. The company’s historical average purchase price is US$ 75.385.
This specific sale resulted in a loss versus the average cost of the position, and the money was used to repurchase the preferred share STRC, which continues trading below par value, and to strengthen the company’s dollar reserve.
A total of 1.690 BTC were sold between August 3 and 9, for US$ 108,6 million, at an average price of US$ 64.262. The company’s historical average purchase price is US$ 75.385.
This specific sale resulted in a loss versus the average cost of the position, and the money was used to repurchase the preferred share STRC, which continues trading below par value, and to strengthen the company’s dollar reserve.
17 straight days of inflows into gold ETFs in China, and now hedge funds are also betting heavily.
Chinese investors bought US$ 296 million in gold ETFs on Thursday alone, the second-largest daily flow in at least 3 months.
Over the course of the streak, inflows already total US$ 1.7 billion.
At the same time, CFTC data shows that hedge funds and asset managers increased their bullish bets on gold to the highest level in more than 6 months in the week ending August 4.
Capital flows on both ends of the world moving in the same direction.
Chinese investors bought US$ 296 million in gold ETFs on Thursday alone, the second-largest daily flow in at least 3 months.
Over the course of the streak, inflows already total US$ 1.7 billion.
At the same time, CFTC data shows that hedge funds and asset managers increased their bullish bets on gold to the highest level in more than 6 months in the week ending August 4.
Capital flows on both ends of the world moving in the same direction.
Survival question.
Taking away the state of your money is a matter of survival for the average Brazilian.
It’s not a matter of "luxury". Much less of merely having a "retirement".
It’s a matter of survival.
Don’t wait to worry "later". The window is closing
Taking away the state of your money is a matter of survival for the average Brazilian.
It’s not a matter of "luxury". Much less of merely having a "retirement".
It’s a matter of survival.
Don’t wait to worry "later". The window is closing
Verified
The US unemployment rate fell, but not because more people got jobs. 🚨
It was because more people gave up looking.
The July payroll came in negative, a loss of 23 thousand jobs, well below the forecast of +83 thousand. May and June combined were revised downward by an additional 103 thousand jobs more than what was already known.
The labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%, the lowest level in more than 5 years.
It was that decline—not job creation—that pushed unemployment from 4.2% to 4.1%.
A labor market losing momentum at the same time that unemployment “improves” in an artificial way is exactly the kind of combination that strips ammunition from those defending a tougher Fed.
The forward interest-rate curve is re-pricing with a lower probability of rate hikes in September.
It was because more people gave up looking.
The July payroll came in negative, a loss of 23 thousand jobs, well below the forecast of +83 thousand. May and June combined were revised downward by an additional 103 thousand jobs more than what was already known.
The labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%, the lowest level in more than 5 years.
It was that decline—not job creation—that pushed unemployment from 4.2% to 4.1%.
A labor market losing momentum at the same time that unemployment “improves” in an artificial way is exactly the kind of combination that strips ammunition from those defending a tougher Fed.
The forward interest-rate curve is re-pricing with a lower probability of rate hikes in September.
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