Luke Alpha

BTC average holding cost is 77,500. An important support level is 71,000. If it drops to around 71,000, continue adding with double leverage. The target is 88,000 or even higher. Keep the bullish expectation. Regardless of the outcome of the Fed’s interest rate decision meeting, it will not affect the uptrend. Currently, the price action is normal consolidation during an ongoing uptrend.

The long positions I built in this BTC move around the average of $77,500 ultimately chose to fully take profit near $87,200, for a profit of about 345,000 USDT.

I’ve been maintaining a bullish stance all along, and $71,000 is also a key support level I’m focused on. This upswing basically matches expectations. But as the price gradually approaches $88,000, I think the cost-effectiveness of chasing higher prices in the short term has already declined; it’s not surprising to see consolidation or a pullback in this area.

So I’ll first lock in the profits. Whether to re-enter the market to go long next—I won’t rush to conclude. I’ll wait for the market to provide more confirmation signals before deciding.

For now, I’m just going to take the safe route and lock things in. The market will always offer the next opportunity.

$ZEC still isn’t suitable for shorting easily right now; instead, it should be a low-buy.

I believe that after shorts below $1,000 will become increasingly difficult to unwind. In this round, ZEC has the potential to first surge toward $1,900–$2,000. Then if a clear pullback occurs, it could become a very important exit window for the earlier shorts over the coming period.

The short-term strategy still focuses mainly on going long at lower levels. Don’t chase price up, and don’t try to guess the top. Aligning knowledge with action, use a small position to go long around $1,400, with the first target to take profit around $1,900.

In a strong uptrend, following the trend is more important than trying to call the top.

The most important thing during an upward trend: hold your position and let your profits run.

I recently saw many people at Binance Square discussing shorting $ZEC.

My view is quite clear: at this stage, ZEC is not suitable for easy shorting.

From the low of around $184 it has risen all the way to nearly $1,400—yes, the increase has been very significant—but “it has gone up a lot” by itself is not a reason to short.

The way ZEC is moving reminds me of the 2020–2021 ETH main uptrend phase: once a trend forms, the market can stay in an overvalued, high-volatility state for a very long time.

One of the most dangerous moves in this kind of market is constantly trying to call the top.

Especially since ZEC’s circulating supply and market depth differ from BTC and ETH—once a large number of shorts concentrate, it’s easy to trigger a chain reaction: price rises → shorts stop out/are liquidated → forced buying to cover → price continues rising. We’ve already seen something similar during ZEC’s earlier rally, a Short Squeeze.

My strategy: I don’t chase price, but I also don’t easily short against the trend.

If I have to look for a short opportunity, I’d rather patiently wait for ZEC to enter a more extreme price zone. For example, after a break above $2,000, then watch for signs such as increased volume with stalled upside, a push to new highs followed by pullback, or a break in the trend structure—only then consider attempting a short position with a small size.

Even then, risk must be strictly controlled—for instance, keeping the stop-loss within $2,200, within the predefined risk range, and avoiding a situation where you were right on direction but get forcibly closed first.

With assets that are in a strong trend, I’d rather miss the top than take a contrarian heavy position just to guess it.

My core judgment right now is still this:

As long as the ZEC trend has not been clearly broken, it’s not an easy decision to short.
Reassess short opportunities again above $2,000.
Shorting can be wrong, but the stop-loss can’t be missing.

The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.

Unity of knowledge and action, near 78300, low position long. First target 83000, second target 88000.

BTC trading rules and forecasts

Overall remains bullish, but don’t chase the price. $71K is the key support—if it pulls back to this level, you can build long positions in batches. After a break above $78.5K, you need to confirm whether it can hold steady. The real trend-strengthening signal is reclaiming the weekly MA50 and effectively breaking through $82.5K–$83K. After the breakout, targets look toward $88K and higher. If it falls back again, it doesn’t necessarily mean the bull market is over; if it breaks below $71K, pause adding positions and reassess the trend. Strategy: continue holding spot positions; place limit long orders near key supports, and wait for confirmation of the breakout before increasing your position size.

When in poverty, one should focus on self-cultivation; when wealthy, one should help the world.
JD.com has entered the food delivery market while providing all employees with five insurances and one fund, fulfilling Liu Qiangdong's promise from that year.
Meituan is likely to face a collective boycott soon; will Wang Xing lose sleep over it?