话李话外

As of 2025, we have released 5 e-books, including the Crypto series and the Travel series.
Introduction to the Crypto series e-books:
1. (Dalong's Crypto Notes 2025)
This book is an e-book released by “Huali Huwai” on December 31, 2025. The full text is about 360,000 Chinese characters. It mainly records, in chronological order, some of Dalong’s (the founder of Huali Huwai) personal experiences, thoughts, and summaries from the crypto market in 2025.
2. (Blockchain Methodology) 2024
This book is an e-book released by “Huali Huwai” in 2024. The full text is about 623,000 Chinese characters. It is mainly divided into three major categories: investment strategy methodology, self-cultivation for retail investors, and annual narratives and projects. Each category is composed of different subsection articles.

Source: Hua Li Hua Wai
At the beginning of the month, many people were still confident about the market. But over the past two weeks, many have dubbed this month “Black October.” Indeed, it seems that a lot of major news stories have broken this month, such as:

A serious security vulnerability has emerged in PHP (the PHP2Shell vulnerability), and approximately 22,000 websites across 103 countries are expected to be facing the threat of the worst cyberattack in a decade.
Quantum computing will soon crack cryptography and reduce Bitcoin’s value to zero.
A U.S. nuclear fusion startup called Marathon Fusion announced that it had successfully turned mercury into gold. Unlimited alchemy has really arrived.

Source: Hua Li Hua Wai
The previous two weeks may have been affected by the macroeconomic environment, compounded by issues such as generally weak ETF inflows. Bitcoin’s price remained in a narrow trading range between $80,000 and $82,000 (corresponding to the daily EMA55 and EMA21).


Generally speaking, periods of narrow-range consolidation are often the calm before a new bout of volatility. Perhaps the market has been responding to some news and sentiment catalysts over the past few days—for example, JPMorgan Chase released its first 10-year return forecast for Bitcoin, projecting an annualized return of around 10% (compared with the bank’s forecast of about 5.5% a year for gold).

The U.S. CPI data released the day before yesterday (October 14) came in above market expectations. September CPI rose 3.7% year over year (versus market expectations of 3.6% and a previous reading of 3.4%) and 0.6% month over month. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 2.6% year over year (versus market expectations of 2.5% and a previous reading of 2.4%), suggesting that inflation still appears to be out of control.

The PPI data released yesterday (October 15) also looked fairly bad. September PPI rose 6.3% year over year (versus market expectations of 5.4%), its highest level in 45 months. Core PPI rose 5.0% year over year (versus market expectations of 4.4%), also reaching its highest level in 44 months.

Source: Huali Huawai
The market over the past two weeks has been a roller coaster. After testing the key level around $87,000 several times in a row, it underwent further corrections, falling as low as $80,000. However, as of the time of writing, Bitcoin has rebounded to around $83,000 after a volatile spell.
Although the market remains in a short-term uptrend on the weekly chart, people’s emotions seem to keep fluctuating along with the market’s volatility. Perhaps that’s one of the more interesting things about the market. But have you ever considered this question: Is Bitcoin’s recent rebound any different from previous ones? If so, how?

Source: Hua Li Hua Wai
On this day last year (October 6, 2025), Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,000. Before we knew it, a year had gone by. Based on that peak, Bitcoin’s price is now 32% lower. A year ago, when Bitcoin was at $126,000, many people were discussing how much further it could rise. Today, a year later, with its price having rebounded to around $85,000, many are discussing whether the bear market is really about to end. Isn’t it interesting to compare these different sentiments?

Source: Hua Li Hua Wai
A couple of days ago (September 30, U.S. Eastern Time), the U.S. released the latest August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data. Overall PCE increased 3.4% year over year (below the market expectation of 3.7%), and rose 0.3% month over month. Core PCE rose 3.0% year over year (below the market expectation of 3.3%) and increased 0.2% month over month (below the market expectation of 0.3%).

Overall, the latest PCE data is broadly favorable for the market, because the actual figures released were a bit milder than what the market had expected previously. However, this “good news” only seems to slightly ease the market’s concerns about the Fed potentially further hiking rates.

Source: Talk within talk
In our previous series of articles, we often mentioned a methodology: instead of always expecting to buy at the absolute lowest point and sell at the absolute highest point, plan your trades and trade according to your plan. Remember that last year (2025)—and during the time before this year— in some of our articles we shared some guesses as well, for example: from a time perspective, we speculate that the market may present another new opportunity to bottom out in this year’s Q3 or Q4. From a price perspective, there is a certain probability that the bottom of this bear market could appear in the $44,000–$54,000 range.

On September 16 (Eastern Time), the Federal Reserve voted 12 to 0 unanimously (the Fed has 18 officials, but the FOMC has 12 voting seats) to raise interest rates by 25 basis points—moving the benchmark rate from 3.50% to 3.75%, up to a range of 3.75% to 4%. This is also the Fed’s first rate hike since July 2023. As shown in the chart below.


This year, Trump has consistently pushed for lower interest rates, yet the new Fed chair he has nominated, Waller, has instead carried out a rate hike. Trump now seemingly expresses that he is "very unhappy"—at least in name.


As for the outcome of this 25-basis-point rate hike, it is entirely in line with market expectations. After the news was released, Bitcoin’s price performance also held relatively steady, continuing to stay around $76,000 (the daily EMA21 level). And as we mentioned in our previous article (September 16): perhaps Bitcoin’s price has already digested some of the earlier unfavorable news or expectations—namely, that part of the CLARITY Act has been stalled and expectations for the Fed to raise rates have already been partially priced in.

September 15 (U.S. Eastern Time): the U.S. Senate held a Cloture roll-call vote on the (CLARITY Act). (This refers to the Senate’s use of a roll-call vote to decide whether to end debate on a given matter and move on to the next procedural step.) The actual result was 49 votes in favor and 50 against—failing to reach the 60-vote threshold required to continue advancing the bill. This also means that there is essentially no hope of the legislation being introduced in 2026.


Actually, in the earlier articles (for example, the one on August 20), we also mentioned the CLARITY Act: the prospects for it to pass this year are rather bleak. Even though the Senate will hold a procedural vote on September 15, officials are still expected to find it very difficult to resolve the disagreements within a comparatively short timeframe. In addition, with the U.S. election season underway this year, advancing legislation of this kind this year will likely become even more difficult. Unless something unexpected happens, the formal enactment and implementation may also need to wait until next year (2027).

Source: Talk about Li, talk about outside
A few days ago, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent delivered a tough speech, claiming: the yen exchange rate is being run by me—you can go ahead and bet against it. As shown in the image below. This hard challenge issued to global yen shorts further pushed up the yen’s exchange rate (currently about 153 yen per 1 U.S. dollar). Perhaps due to this change in the USD/JPY rate again bringing fresh pressure to risk assets, along with other factors such as the U.S.-Iran war, the macroeconomic outlook seems far from optimistic. Therefore, Bitcoin, which has been trying to break through recently, chose to range again when it reached around $82,000. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price has fallen back to around $76,000.

Recently, it seems fewer people are discussing Strategy (MicroStrategy) anymore. It looks like, as the recent calls for a “bull market comeback” grow louder, many people no longer see Strategy as the big bomb that would blow up in a bear market, as they once did. I remember that from June to August this year, Strategy sold a total of 6,916 bitcoins in four batches (at an average selling price of $62,200). Then just last week, Strategy resumed buying 4,603 bitcoins (at an average purchase price of $80,318).

As for this kind of low-sell, high-buy move, Strategy CEO Phong Le said in a media interview two days ago that he does not regret selling bitcoin at a price close to $60,000 and then buying it back a few weeks later at a higher price; he believes both actions were correct. As shown below.

When the Bitcoin price hovered around $60,000 for a while, many people were quite pessimistic and frustrated. But since last week, as the price of Bitcoin has rapidly surged to around $80,000, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also jumped to 74. As shown in the chart below, it seems that in just these few days, people’s sentiment has shifted from indifference to greed.


In the articles we discussed earlier, we mentioned that if the market continues moving upward and can effectively break through the $72,000 resistance level, there would be an opportunity to once again challenge the important $78,000–$82,000 range. And based on the results so far, it seems to be attempting to challenge this range as well.

On August 18, 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto registered bitcoin.org. Coincidentally, on the same day 18 years later (August 18, 2026), the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) officially proposed regulations for crypto assets (Regulation Crypto Assets), as shown in the figure below. Of course, this regulation is not yet the final rule; it is only the Proposed Rules (the public comment period will last 60 days).


This is also the first official set of rules from the SEC specifically addressing regulations for crypto assets. The core content mainly includes:
1) The first exemption is a one-time exemption, allowing up to $5 million to be raised within four years.

In the previous article, we mentioned several macro indicators or factors that might affect the market’s short-term outlook ahead, including the NFP, CPI, and the FOMC meeting. From the latest CPI data released on the 12th, the U.S. July CPI year-over-year rose by 3.4% (down from June’s 3.5%). Core CPI rose by 2.5% year-over-year (i.e., after excluding food and energy; also down from the previous value of 2.6%). Both figures were in line with market expectations. Although the released data has continued to give the Federal Reserve more time, it has also made the outlook for the upcoming market moves difficult to predict and full of uncertainties. In the short term, the market is likely to continue with range-bound fluctuations—that is, at this stage, there are still no macro conditions that directly support a clear reversal.

In the previous article (Aug 4), we mentioned that MicroStrategy (Strategy) continues to sell Bitcoin, and the Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) also continues to sell Bitcoin. So some friends commented and complained, saying that MicroStrategy bought Bitcoin for $75,000 and is now cutting its losses to sell at $63,000—looks like institutions are scalpers too, for sure.

Regarding this kind of rhetoric that targets institutions as “scalpers,” I have a slightly different view. If we look purely at the outcome, selling at a loss really does resemble the kind of behavior associated with scalpers. However, the main characteristic of most scalpers is that they often make buys (chasing the price) without any plan or discipline, and sell (cut their losses) without any discipline either.

In the previous article (August 1), we mentioned that whether from the perspective of time or space, simple DCA investing and holding spot coins, over the next 2–3 years, will most likely yield 2–3 times the returns. But some friends left comments in the background saying that within 2–3 years they only get 2–3 times the return—too little. And that even this kind of return isn’t as good as trading stocks.

Maybe. If, over the past 2–3 years, you’ve already earned overall returns through stock trading that exceed 3 times your principal, then it’s understandable that you wouldn’t be interested in the return rate I’m talking about.

In the previous article (July 16), we mentioned that the Federal Reserve likely would not raise rates in the short term. And the results from this week’s FOMC on the 29th also confirm this: the Fed continued to keep rates unchanged (i.e., maintaining the 3.5%–3.75% range). However, it’s worth noting that among the 12 votes, three officials voted in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike.


In other words, it seems that the market’s current focus is no longer limited to whether the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged. Instead, there are signs of growing internal disagreement within the Fed. And what people are paying more attention to now is no longer when the Fed will cut rates, but whether the Fed might raise rates again this year. According to the latest Polymarket odds, the probability of a rate hike by the Fed in September has increased to 53%, as shown in the chart below.

The other day I saw some data showing that the number of posts discussing Bitcoin and Ethereum topics on the social platform (X) has fallen to the lowest level since 2020. Mentions of Bitcoin have dropped to about 130,000 times, while mentions of Ethereum have fallen to about 40,000 times, as shown in the figure below.


2020 was also a period of bear market (late in the bear cycle of 2020; in 2021 we entered a big bull run). Back then, Wall Street institutions had not yet fully moved into the crypto space, and there basically weren’t any institutions trying to push spot ETFs. Crypto-related funds were also quite rare—at the time, the most notable names were mainly Grayscale, and MicroStrategy was only just beginning to attempt buying Bitcoin. Now, more than six years have passed. Institutional investors’ participation has become increasingly widespread. Things like RWAs, tokenized stocks, and stablecoins keep appearing every day in hot institutional coverage—yet the discussion level among retail investors has directly returned to roughly the level seen around 2020. Institutional participation is getting hotter and hotter, while retail investors are talking about it less and less. Isn’t that comparison really interesting?

In the previous article (July 8), we mentioned some of the US stock-related lists we’re currently watching, including CRCL, MSTR, HOOD, and more. Today, let’s continue discussing HOOD (Robinhood). Specifically, on last week (July 2), Robinhood officially launched its Arbitrum-based L2 network, Robinhood Chain, as shown in the figure below.


There are two main points about Robinhood Chain. First, one of its marketing highlights claims it is an AI-native chain (meaning it supports AI agents carrying out transactions directly on-chain). Second, it is built specifically for tokenized stocks (and users can deposit tokenized stocks into a lending pool and use them as DeFi collateral).