RecodeX

📡 8-Hour Recap | July 13, 00:00-08:00

Over the past 8 hours, geopolitical tensions have escalated sharply. Military clashes between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz have become the market’s key variable. International oil prices are up more than 3%, and volatility in global financial markets has increased. Meanwhile, the tech sector is showing clear bifurcation: funding for AI infrastructure remains intensely hot, but liquidity in the cryptocurrency market has tightened. Bitcoin is trading in a range above $64,000, and overall market sentiment is growing cautious.

Geopolitics

1. The US military strikes Iran’s missile systems near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims it destroyed US HIMARS rocket artillery deployed in Kuwait, causing casualties; both sides’ conflict continues to escalate.

2. Iran announces a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices rise more than 3%, approaching $74, and global energy supply chains face disruption risks.

3. US Senator Lindsey Graham dies of an aortic dissection. The Republican Party’s advantage in the Senate weakens, which may affect the advancement of Trump’s agenda.

4. A bar fire in Bangkok, Thailand kills 27 people, mostly from suffocation due to inhaling smoke; in Venezuela, a strong earthquake increases the death toll to 4,490.

Cryptocurrencies

1. The stablecoin market has shrunk by $10 billion since May. In June alone, it fell by $7.7 billion, the largest monthly drop since the Terra collapse.

2. Bitcoin is experiencing rare liquidity tightening. Spot BTC continues to flow out from global exchanges. Prices are stable above $64,000, but the market remains in an extreme bear condition.

3. Last week, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products saw net inflows of about $281.8 million, ending the sustained net outflows that have persisted since May 2026.

4. Hedera’s DeFi lending platform Bonzo Lend was attacked due to a vulnerability in an oracle, resulting in losses of roughly $9.05 million.

5. South Korea’s crypto trading volume drops to a two-year low, falling below 1 trillion won for the first time—occurring at the same time as a stock-market crash.

AI and Tech

1. Apple sues OpenAI for stealing trade secrets, highlighting how competition among tech giants for talent and hardware has intensified. At the same time, Apple’s M7 Ultra chip plan aims to support 1.5TB unified memory by 2028.

2. Anthropic’s valuation in the secondary market is reportedly up to $1.2 trillion, with investors’ demand for AI company stocks continuing to surge.

3. Biren Technology (wall? “壁仞科技”) raises $892.5 million in a new share issuance, with a market cap exceeding $32 billion. China Life sets up a 5 billion yuan semiconductor fund, and the AI infrastructure track continues to attract capital.

4. OpenAI releases the ChatGPT Work agent, which can execute complex tasks across applications and files. DeepSeek cuts prices by 75%, but enterprise AI agent costs still soar.

5. A US team completes the world’s first remote-controlled humanoid robot surgery. Mitsubishi plans to mass-produce humanoid robots in 2027 for use in auto factories.

Macroeconomy and Stock Markets

1. Economists lower the US recession probability to 25% and raise inflation expectations. The Fed’s room to cut rates is limited, which is a headwind for the crypto market.

2. The S&P 500’s trailing 12-month P/E is 28.0, higher than the 5-year average of 24.5 and the 10-year average of 23.4. Selloffs in AI-related stocks are driven by profit-taking and valuation concerns.

3. Tech-focused ETF assets have surged by more than 200 billion yuan this year, bringing the total above 540 billion yuan—an all-time high. However, nearly half of the Nasdaq-100 constituents have pulled back more than 20% from their prior peak.

4. Historic divergence appears between chip manufacturers and AI/cloud giants. Over the next 12 months, chipmakers’ free cash flow is expected to reach $430 billion, a record high.

Market sentiment summary: Geopolitical conflict and macro data uncertainty are dominating the market. Investors are swinging between the AI boom and valuation concerns. Tightening crypto liquidity is intensifying a wait-and-see posture, and in the short term, the focus is on US CPI, China’s GDP, and Fed reports.

📡 On-the-hour News | 07:00-08:00

1. Tensions between the US and Iran escalate: the US launches a new round of airstrikes on Iran. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faces increased risk, and WTI crude rises more than 3%, approaching 74 US dollars.

2. A Bitcoin wallet dormant for seven years “wakes up,” transferring 2,931 BTC (with unrealized gains of nearly tenfold), drawing market attention to potential sell-off pressure.

3. A US team completes the world’s first remote-controlled humanoid robot surgery, and the Stanford team releases a general-purpose biomedical AI agent, Biomni.

4. Spot gold falls 1% during the day to 4,077.81 US dollars per ounce, while spot silver drops 2% to 58.63 US dollars per ounce.

5. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham dies from an aortic dissection. After McConnell was hospitalized following a fall, he speaks out for the first time, saying he has lifelong mobility impairment.

6. A fire breaks out in a bar in Bangkok, killing 27 people. Most die from suffocation due to inhaling heavy smoke. The cause of the accident is still under investigation.

7. Mitsubishi signs an agreement with a startup from the University of Tokyo, planning mass production of humanoid robots for auto factories in 2027.

8. This week, US CPI, China’s GDP, and the Federal Reserve’s reports will impact global financial markets, and the scale of technology-sector ETFs surpasses 540 billion yuan.

📡 Hourly News | 06:00-07:00

1. The situation in the Middle East has escalated sharply. The U.S. military intercepted and shot down Iranian missiles and drones. Iran has announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices have risen by more than 3%.

2. OpenAI’s Head of Safety, Johannes Heidecke, has left during a leadership restructuring, becoming the latest departing executive at the company.

3. The S&P 500 index’s trailing 12-month P/E ratio is 28.0, higher than the 5-year average of 24.5 and the 10-year average of 23.4. The selloff in AI-related stocks has been driven by profit-taking and valuation concerns.

4. Bitcoin’s recovery momentum is strengthening. The start of July has been strong, but the market is still in an extreme bear market state. Each rebound is seen as a bear-market recovery rather than a trend reversal.

5. Apple’s M8-series chips have entered the R&D stage. They are expected to use a 1.4nm process and will incorporate research成果 from the discontinued car project into the M7 and M8 chip designs to boost AI performance.

6. Startup Spectral Compute has launched the SCALE compiler, enabling CUDA programs to run on non-NVIDIA hardware such as AMD, challenging the NVIDIA ecosystem.

7. Senator Lindsey Graham has died of an aortic dissection, weakening the Republican Party’s advantage in the Senate majority and potentially affecting the advancement of Trump’s agenda.

8. Technology-focused ETF assets have surged by more than RMB 200 billion within the year, bringing the total to over RMB 540 billion—an all-time high.

📡 Hourly News | 05:00-06:00

1. The U.S. military launches more airstrikes against Iran, escalating regional tensions. Meanwhile, an Israeli attack on Gaza results in six deaths.

2. Bitcoin is experiencing a rare liquidity crunch: global exchange spot BTC continues to flow out. The price reaches 64K, while a Pakistan cryptocurrency fatwa sparks discussion on digital-asset regulatory frameworks.

3. A survey shows 69% of Americans support legislation that would require AI giants to place half of their shares into a public sovereign wealth fund to address the wave of tech layoffs.

4. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham dies at age 71. His departure leaves Ukraine without a key supporter in the Trump camp.

5. This week, closely watch U.S. CPI and PPI data, Fed remarks, and the progress of the Clarity Act. Macroeconomic and regulatory events may affect the crypto market.

6. The U.S. Department of Justice launches a grand-jury investigation into Sean Fain, president of the United Auto Workers union, alleging wrongdoing to secure benefits.

7. A fire breaks out in a bar in Bangkok, Thailand, killing at least 27 people.

8. The Apple iPhone 17 Pro Max is buried underground and set to restart after 250 years, to be used for commemorative events marking the 250th anniversary in the United States.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 04:00-05:00

1. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham has died. Trump has lost a key ally in the Senate, which may affect the progress of the legislative agenda as the Republican Party seeks a replacement.

2. The United States and Iran have sent conflicting signals to each other. Conditions for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have become uncertain, further escalating geopolitical tensions.

3. OpenAI has launched the ChatGPT Work agent, which can perform complex tasks across applications and documents, and will discontinue the Atlas browser.

4. DeepSeek’s 75% price cuts have not eased the issue of soaring enterprise AI agent costs. Token consumption is increasing far faster than the rate of price reduction, creating the risk of negative gross margins for the SaaS model.

5. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. saw net inflows of about $281.8 million last week, ending the ongoing net outflows that have persisted since May 2026.

6. After launching just seven months ago, AI startup Gradium expanded its funding round to $100 million and received support from new investors including NVIDIA.

7. The AI boom and Iran-related geopolitical conflict have made it difficult for companies to choose the timing for their first public offerings (IPOs).

8. MindRank AI, a clinical-stage biotech company, completed a $52 million Series B round to advance its AI drug discovery platform.

📡 Hourly News Update | 03:00-04:00

1. A bar fire in Bangkok, Thailand, killed more than 20 people, mostly due to inhaling smoke; the cause is under investigation. A strong earthquake in Venezuela has increased the death toll to 4,490.

2. Sinner defeated Zverev after a marathon battle and successfully defended his Wimbledon title, winning his second Wimbledon men’s singles championship.

3. Bitcoin’s trend resembles the situation at the end of 2022, suggesting that a new bull market may be on the way; Ethereum’s sustained rebound is approaching a long-term resistance level.

4. Meta has withdrawn its controversial AI image feature, “Muse Image,” and plans to begin production of its own AI chips in September to double computing power.

5. Attorney Mark Lanier achieved a landmark victory in a Los Angeles courtroom, filing his first lawsuit against Meta and the Google platform for being designed as “addiction machines” that harm teenagers’ mental health.

6. China is drawing lessons from the soybean supply disruption incident, ensuring the security of rare-earth supply through diversified sources and strategic reserves.

7. Spain approved an $8 billion housing plan; public housing investment over the next four years will triple. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio is above its historical average.

8. South Korea’s cryptocurrency trading volume has fallen to a two-year low, first dropping below 1 trillion won, happening at the same time as a stock market crash.

📡 Hourly News Briefing | 02:00-03:00

1. An Iranian missile strike hit U.S. military bases in Kuwait, escalating tensions in the Middle East and potentially worsening volatility in global financial markets.

2. U.S. lawmakers plan to release a revised draft bill on the crypto market structure this week, aiming to provide a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets.

3. Michael Saylor’s Strategy holds 844,000 Bitcoins at an average price of $75,000, with the current unrealized loss at about $9.7 billion.

4. Researchers combine AI and quantum computing to develop a new type of peptide, which could accelerate drug R&D for rare diseases.

5. Due to new EU regulations, the next-generation Apple Pencil may come with a replaceable battery, improving repairability.

6. HDFC Bank, the largest private-sector bank in India, cut its workforce by more than 3,000 employees within a year after adopting AI and automation systems.

7. In the 2026 League of Legends MSI final, HLE defeated BLG 3:2 to claim the championship.

8. The state banquet chef Sui Po visited the restaurant Chongqing Black Pearl (Chen Xiang). The restaurant’s official account posted a curse-style reply, sparking a public-opinion crisis.

📡 Hourly News Update | 01:00-02:00

1. The U.S. launches strikes on Iranian missile systems near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims that drones destroyed U.S. HIMARS rocket artillery deployed in Kuwait, causing casualties, as geopolitical tensions escalate.

2. Economists cut the U.S. recession probability to 25% and raise inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve has limited room to cut rates, which is a negative factor for the crypto market.

3. Hedera’s DeFi lending platform Bonzo Lend was attacked due to an oracle vulnerability, with losses of about $9.05 million.

4. Anthropic’s reported valuation in the secondary market reaches $1.2 trillion, with investor demand for AI company stocks continuing to surge.

5. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has issued a query letter over issues such as a sharp decline in ShuiJingFang’s performance, a surge in distributors but falling sales figures. The stock price has dropped by more than 80% from its peak in 2021.

6. Chip manufacturers show a historic divergence from AI/cloud giants. In the next 12 months, chipmakers’ free cash flow is expected to reach $430 billion, a record high.

7. Spartan Capital secures a $160 million senior credit facility to expand financing for small and medium-sized enterprises.

8. Massachusetts’ largest nurses’ strike in history is set to end on July 13, as Brigham nurses resume walking back to work.

📡 On-the-hour Update | 00:00-01:00

1. Apple sues OpenAI for allegedly stealing trade secrets, highlighting the intensifying competition for talent and hardware among tech giants.

2. Biren Technology secures $892.5 million in a new share issuance; its market value exceeds $32 billion, as the AI infrastructure track continues to attract capital.

3. The crypto IPO market has stalled as capital shifts toward the AI sector; Bitcoin is trading around above $64,000.

4. The U.S. military strikes targets around the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating regional tensions and potentially disrupting the global energy supply chain.

5. Agility Robotics will go public via a SPAC at a $2.5 billion valuation, with Foxconn leading a $200 million PIPE investment.

6. Manus has gone from viral success to being acquired by Meta, and then being halted by China—three turning points in 16 months.

7. Apple’s M7 Ultra chip is planned to support 1.5TB of unified memory by 2028, matching the level of the 2019 Mac Pro.

8. China Life sets up a 5 billion yuan semiconductor fund, responding to Beijing’s call for “patient capital.”

📡 Hourly News Update | 23:00-00:00

1. Iran launches an attack on U.S. missile launch sites in Kuwait. Trump says the Strait of Hormuz remains open, but the Iran-U.S. conflict continues to escalate, raising security concerns.

2. The stablecoin market has shrunk by $10 billion since May, and fell by another $7.7 billion in June alone. This is the largest monthly decline since the Terra collapse. However, analysts believe the long-term growth trend remains unchanged.

3. Apple has started tape-out of its M7 chip. The NPU will be significantly upgraded. The company plans to launch the M8 and M7 Ultra in 2028, supporting up to 1.5TB of memory. A new iPad Pro and a new Apple Pencil will also be released.

4. Nearly half of the Nasdaq-100 constituents have pulled back by more than 20% from their earlier peak, but more than 60% are still above the 200-day moving average. Market performance is clearly diverging.

5. The U.S. Department of Energy can require data centers of 50 megawatts or more to switch to backup power within 15 minutes. Otherwise, PJM will rotate outages across 13 states. Filecoin says its distributed storage is not affected.

6. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham dies due to a sudden short illness. South Carolina will launch a fierce election to fill the vacancy in his six-year term.

7. At the inaugural LEAP East conference, Hong Kong presented itself to 35,000 attendees as a regional technology and finance hub. Financial Secretary Paul Chan emphasized that innovation needs capital.

8. Oxylabs secures $130 million in funding from Hua Ping Investments, valuing the company at $3.6 billion. A consortium led by B Capital, after acquiring Russell Investments from TA Associates, aims to enhance its technical capabilities.

📡 Daily News Roundup | July 12

Over the past 24 hours, global markets have been dominated by a sharply escalated Middle East geopolitical conflict. Iran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude jumped 5.2%, risk assets came under pressure, and Bitcoin fell below $64,000. At the same time, competition in the AI space has intensified: Apple has officially sued OpenAI for stealing trade secrets, Anthropic secretly filed IPO documents, and OpenAI released the GPT-5.6 series but revealed a major security vulnerability. After crypto markets briefly rebounded on ETF inflows and regulatory tailwinds, geopolitical risk once again suppressed sentiment, and the overall market mood shifted toward panic.

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📊 Global Macros

1. Middle East situation escalates sharply: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would indefinitely close the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of global oil transport is threatened. U.S. forces launched a third round of strikes on Iran within a week, with more than 300 targets hit in total. Iran claims attacks on U.S. bases in Qatar and Kuwait. Brent crude surged 5.2%.

2. U.S. policy divisions deepen: A bipartisan housing affordability bill automatically goes into effect after Trump refuses to sign it, while temporarily restricting the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike from the Federal Reserve in July fell to 34.2% as weak employment data reduced expectations.

3. China’s H1 GDP growth is expected to exceed 4.5%: Multiple institutions predict full-year growth will fall in the 4.5% to 4.7% range. The trajectory in the second half will hinge on exports and real estate. Citigroup said the slowdown in the second quarter was exacerbated by what it called a de facto fiscal tightening.

4. IMF warns of risks from dollar-backed stablecoins: The report says dollar stablecoins could intensify currency crises in countries with fixed exchange-rate regimes and trigger capital flight.

5. Typhoon Gaemi makes landfall in Taizhou, Zhejiang: China urgently evacuated more than one million people. The Ministry of Transport activated a Level One defense response for heavy rain. In Moli Flower areas in Hengzhou, Guangxi, flooding hit crops, causing flower prices to swing dramatically in the short term.

💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin falls below $64,000: Driven by the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, Bitcoin’s price broke below the key $64,000 support level. The market’s Fear and Greed Index dropped to 26 (panic). Investors prefer self-custody; over the past 7 days, centralized exchanges saw a net outflow of 2,025 BTC.

2. ETF flows end an 8-week streak of outflows: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs combined for net inflows of $281.8 million this week. Standard Chartered reiterated a $100,000 target price. Morgan Stanley increased holdings by nearly 1,000 BTC over two weeks, bringing total holdings to over 5,700 BTC.

3. Japan plans to legalize crypto ETFs: The finance minister said the relevant regulatory framework is being drafted. The U.S. Senate plans to consider the “CLARITY Act” on July 20 to clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets.

4. Hedera ecosystem hit by hackers: The Sauce protocol reportedly lost more than $5 million. Bonzo Lend lost about $9.05 million due to an oracle vulnerability. A LAB token market maker dumped 18.5 million tokens within two days, and the price crashed 53%.

5. Robinhood launches an Ethereum L2 network: Robinhood Chain, based on Arbitrum, saw DEX trading volume on the network surpass Solana. Next week, more than $237 million worth of tokens will be unlocked, including $125.9 million from PUMP.

🤖 AI and Technology

1. Anthropic secretly files for an IPO: It plans to list in October, targeting a valuation of about $96.5 billion, which would make it the first major foundation model developer to go public. It also signed a 20-year, $19 billion data center lease, locking in 401 megawatts of power.

2. Apple officially sues OpenAI: Apple accuses it of stealing trade secrets “at every level,” including encouraging recruited employees to steal hardware secrets. Apple’s stock hit an all-time high on AI-related momentum.

3. OpenAI releases the GPT-5.6 series: The flagship model, Sol, achieves scores close to intelligence at lower cost. But it also exposed major security flaws, including randomly deleting local files, sparking widespread debate over AI Agent security.

4. Zhipu launches a “reach-the-top” plan: Founder Tang Jie released an internal communication centered on cutting-edge AGI research. He emphasized “not reaching the top is failure,” trying to shift the valuation narrative and avoid being priced like traditional SaaS companies.

5. China’s AI models process 98 trillion tokens per month: That’s 85% higher than the U.S. Among the 50 most commonly used global AI models, China accounts for about 40%. ByteDance is preparing to launch a Seedance 2.5 model capable of natively generating 30-second AI videos.

🌍 Geopolitics

1. Iran indefinitely shuts the Strait of Hormuz: About 20% of global oil transport is threatened. Trump threatens to completely destroy Iran, while the U.S. increases military and diplomatic pressure. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei issued tough remarks, calling for revenge for his father.

2. U.S.–Iran talks hit a stalemate: Iran repeatedly said it will not hold any negotiations until the U.S. withdraws its position. Qatar raised the security threat level and urged people to stay home. Bahrain sounded air-raid alerts three times in a single day.

3. Trump pauses Spain trade: IBEX 35 fell 2.6%, and Trump supported tougher sanctions on Russia. Russia struck Ukraine with missiles and drones, killing six people.

4. India pressures vivo on national security grounds: vivo was forced to adjust its equity ratio to 51:49. China’s pause on helium exports has further heightened concerns about chip supply.

5. EU preliminarily finds Meta violated the Digital Services Act: It accuses Meta’s Facebook and Instagram of violating rules on “addictive design.” Meta could face fines of up to $12.5 billion.

📈 Stock Market Updates

1. U.S. stocks add nearly $1 trillion in market value this week: The S&P 500 is approaching record highs. The AI rally is lifting tech stocks. Micron’s share price is up 247.66% this year.

2. Korean stocks

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📡 8-Hour Recap | July 12, 16:00–24:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets were dominated by a rapid escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions: Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, U.S.–Iran military strikes continued to intensify, and the global energy supply chain faced serious threats. At the same time, major breakthroughs emerged in the AI sector (GPT-5.6 cracks 50-year-old math problems), but a warning from the U.S. Treasury said there may be a bubble in the AI market. In cryptocurrency markets, sentiment was bearish: Bitcoin traded in a range around $63,000, mining difficulty was lowered, and the exchange premium index hit its worst negative record ever.

Geopolitics

1. The U.S.–Iran conflict escalated sharply: The U.S. military carried out its third strike against Iran within a week. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and claimed missile attacks on multiple countries. The U.S., however, said the strait remains open to ships. After remarks by Trump, the situation eased temporarily, but commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly plunged, and Qatar advised all vessels to suspend navigation.

2. U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham died unexpectedly at age 71. His death left the Senate agenda stalled, with several pieces of legislation facing unclear prospects. Trump and Israeli officials expressed condolences.

3. After hardliners in Iran’s leadership were dealt a severe blow, they sought to fill the power vacuum and escalated hostile actions toward the U.S. Meanwhile, Ukraine said its shelling hit Russian oil refineries and oil tankers, worsening conflicts at energy facilities.

4. The U.S. announced it would strike 140 Iranian military targets. Iran’s Kerman communications infrastructure was hit by a U.S. cyberattack, keeping the Middle East situation tense.

Macroeconomy

1. Economists raised their U.S. CPI inflation forecast to 3.4%, but the latest survey showed the probability of a U.S. recession fell from 33% to 25%, improving the economic outlook.

2. Goldman Sachs warned that the Fed’s interest-rate outlook is a key risk for equities, with markets focused on upcoming CPI data.

3. The National Development and Reform Commission added 100 million yuan in central-budget investment to support Guangxi’s emergency recovery efforts after typhoon damage; ten districts in Beijing launched flood-prevention “Level 1” emergency response.

4. China Life set up a semiconductor fund of 5 billion yuan, responding to Beijing’s call for “patient capital.”

Cryptocurrency Market

1. Bitcoin traded in a range above $63,000, nearing the $58,000 power-law support line (a line marking cycle lows since 2015). Fidelity’s macro director said it may have entered an accumulation zone, but there’s a lack of catalysts for a rebound. Analysts believe, driven by the cycle and leverage liquidations, it has already entered a bear market, but there’s a chance to rebound to $100,000 by year-end.

2. Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has been in negative territory for 55 straight days, setting a historical record—indicating the platform has continued to face persistent selling pressure. Funding-rate data from mainstream CEXs and DEXs shows market sentiment has returned to clearly bearish.

3. Bitcoin mining difficulty was cut by 5% to 127.17 T, a relatively large decrease in recent terms, which may reduce miners’ operating costs. Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoins (worth $216 million), the largest scale disposal in history, which may signal a strategic shift.

4. After Terra’s collapse, the total market cap of stablecoins saw its largest month-over-month pullback since then, but the long-term growth logic remains unchanged. Five major Korean crypto exchanges saw weekly trading volumes fall below 1 trillion won, the lowest level since September 2023.

5. BlackRock’s tokenized money-market fund, BUIDL, on the Avalanche network surpassed $900 million in assets under management, doubling within a week. Standard Chartered’s head of research expects that announcements about traditional financial institutions building in DeFi over the next 3–12 months could increase by more than tenfold.

AI and Technology

1. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Ultra model cracked a graph theory problem that had remained unsolved for 50 years within an hour, demonstrating a major AI reasoning breakthrough. Nvidia said AI demand is expanding and kept the roadmap for its next-generation products unchanged.

2. An internal report from the U.S. Treasury warned that the AI market may be a bubble, citing inflated valuations and a mismatch between capital expenditures and profits—potentially repeating the collapse of the dot-com bubble.

3. Apple sued former engineer Liu Chang for stealing trade secrets, alleging that after leaving to join OpenAI, he still accessed internal networks. It also sued OpenAI for stealing trade secrets. Relations between the parties deteriorated sharply, and Musk and Altman traded accusations over the incident.

4. Nvidia abandoned the TSMC plan and shifted to Tower Semiconductor’s silicon-photonics platform to improve AI chip interconnect performance. TSMC’s advanced CoWoS packaging capacity is severely insufficient, with orders spilling over to Intel and local Taiwan OSAT/packaging-and-testing firms.

5. Humanoid robotics company Agility Robotics will go public via a SPAC at a valuation of $2.5 billion, expecting to raise more than $620 million. Foxconn is leading the $200 million PIPE deal. Mitsubishi Motors plans to mass-produce humanoid robots at its Kyoto plant, targeting 1,000 units per month, with operations expected to start in early 2027.

Stock Market and Company Updates

1. Seres expects a net loss of 1.5–1.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, turning from profit to loss, affected by higher raw material prices and asset impairment. S... Technology (Shan... Co.) expects first-half net profit to rise year-over-year by 262%–334%. China Satellite expects first-half net profit to swing from loss to profit.

2. Microsoft said it is laying off 3,200 people and spinning off five studios because, for every $1 invested in its Xbox business, it lost 64 cents and its profit margins are far below peers. Xbox Game Pass subscriber numbers have stalled at 30 million, down 4 million from the start of the year.

3. Xiaohongshu (RedNote) may affect its progress toward a Hong Kong listing after an employee rights-claim incident exposed disputes over option vesting and ESG compliance deficiencies. Cloud Leopard Intelligent is pushing ahead with an IPO on the ChiNext board; Tencent holds nearly 20%. The company focuses on DPU chips but has posted losses for years.

Market Sentiment Summary: The simultaneous pressure from escalating geopolitical conflicts and warnings of an AI bubble has weighed on risk appetite. Crypto market sentiment is notably bearish, but Bitcoin has shown resilience near key support levels. The integration of traditional finance and DeFi is accelerating, and continued strong AI compute demand is providing support to the market.

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📡 Top-of-the-hour update | 22:00-23:00

1. U.S. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has died at the age of 71. His passing has left the Senate’s agenda at a standstill, with several legislative prospects unclear.

2. Trump says Iran fired after agreeing to the deal, adding further uncertainty to the situation in the Middle East. Iran has announced the Strait of Hormuz is closed, while the U.S. says it remains open.

3. Bitcoin breaking through $70,700 is viewed as a signal of a trend reversal, but data shows that the drop below short-term holders’ cost basis has already lasted more than 9 months, and bearish features have not disappeared.

4. Nvidia says demand for AI is expanding and keeps its roadmap for the next generation of products unchanged.

5. Xiaohongshu’s rights-claim dispute involving a former employee has exposed issues around option ownership and ESG compliance shortcomings, which may affect its progress toward an HKEX listing.

6. Goldman Sachs warns that the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook is a key risk for U.S. stocks, with attention on CPI data.

7. EQT Infrastructure Fund has agreed to acquire Copia Power, a U.S. energy and digital infrastructure platform focused on AI infrastructure, from Carlyle.

8. An EU 2023 regulation requires consumer electronics to make batteries easily replaceable by 2027. Apple may need to redesign the Apple Pencil to comply with the new rules.

📡 On-the-hour update | 21:00-22:00

1. Iran announces that the Strait of Hormuz is impassable, but the U.S. claims it remains open; after Trump’s remarks, the situation eases temporarily.

2. Strategy sells 3,588 bitcoins (worth $216 million), marking the largest-scale disposal in history, or indicating a strategic adjustment.

3. TSMC’s advanced CoWoS packaging capacity is severely insufficient, causing orders to spill over to Intel and Taiwan’s domestic OSAT facilities.

4. Microsoft’s Xbox Game Pass subscriber growth stalls at 30 million, down by 4 million from the start of the year—far from the 77 million target.

5. China Life establishes a 5-billion-yuan (RMB) semiconductor fund, responding to Beijing’s call for “patient capital.”

6. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina dies of sudden illness at age 71, triggering a special election.

7. A massive bonus in Samsung’s semiconductor division sparks internal pay-gap controversy, with employees in the consumer electronics division protesting.

8. In June, the total market value of stablecoins saw the largest single-month drawdown since the Terra collapse, but the long-term growth logic remains unchanged.

📡 On-the-hour Update | 20:00-21:00

1. Tensions escalate in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims it has launched missile strikes at multiple countries, while the U.S. says the strait is open to all vessels, heightening geopolitical strain and global concerns about oil supply.

2. A Standard Chartered research head expects that the number of announcements about traditional financial institutions moving into DeFi may increase by more than tenfold over the next 3 to 12 months, reflecting accelerating convergence between TradFi and DeFi.

3. CICC (China International Capital Corporation) believes the market will remain volatile and choppy. It expects the index to receive support at key moving averages and suggests focusing on main themes such as AI and brokerages, with AI compute hardware continuing to enjoy strong momentum.

4. Bitcoin is nearing the Fidelity power-law support line. A global macro strategist says it may be accumulating for a move but lacks a rebound catalyst. Multiple AI models predict that in the second half of 2026, Bitcoin could set a new all-time high.

5. U.S. senior Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has died at age 71. He previously shifted from being a critic of Trump to a firm supporter.

6. Analysts warn that metals such as gold may face a pullback risk over the next six months. The price of gold could fall from $4,000 to $3,000.

7. On-chain sleuth ZachXBT accuses the LAB team of manipulating prices by controlling 81.5 million tokens through affiliated entities, raising market concerns about possible insider-style control by the project team.

8. Thailand’s central bank and the SEC jointly investigate large USDT transactions, requiring that cash deposits exceeding 5 million Thai baht be verified for source of funds, and strengthening cryptocurrency regulation.

📡 On-the-hour Update | 19:00-20:00

1. Bitcoin mining difficulty is lowered by 5% to 127.17 T, marking a relatively large decline in the recent period. This could reduce miners’ operating costs and affect network hashrate.

2. Bitcoin is nearing the $58,000 power-law support line. This line has been marking cycle bottoms since 2015. Fidelity Macro’s director believes it may have entered an accumulation zone, but there is a lack of rebound catalysts.

3. The five largest crypto exchanges in South Korea saw weekly trading volume fall to below 1 trillion won, the lowest since September 2023. This indicates declining retail participation and increasing market uncertainty.

4. Iran’s hardliners, after suffering a major blow to its leadership, are seeking to fill the power vacuum—escalating hostile actions toward the United States—while Trump and Putin have become stuck on the Ukraine issue.

5. Users of AI programming tools are flooding open-source projects with large numbers of low-quality contributions, overwhelming maintainers and potentially weakening community engagement.

6. Musk and Altman are trading accusations over the Apple lawsuit involving OpenAI, while GPT-5.6 and Grok 4.5 are directly clashing—intensifying competition in the AI agent space.

7. Autonomous mapping and robotics company Emesent secured AUD 25 million in funding to expand its AI platform and cloud software applications in mining, defense, and construction.

8. Analysts say the IPO window for crypto firms may reopen next year. Regulation is no longer the primary obstacle; the market environment and investor sentiment are key factors.

📡 Hourly Report | 18:00-19:00

1. The U.S. announced it would strike 140 Iranian military targets. Iran immediately closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the situation in the Middle East escalated rapidly.

2. An internal report from the U.S. Treasury warned that the AI market is in a bubble. It pointed out that valuations are too high and that capital expenditures don’t match profits, raising the risk of a repeat of the collapse of the dot-com bubble.

3. Nvidia abandoned its TSMC plan and shifted to Tower Semiconductor’s silicon photonics platform to improve AI chip interconnect performance.

4. BlackRock’s tokenized money market fund, BUIDL, on the Avalanche network has surpassed $900 million in assets under management, doubling within a week.

5. Agility Robotics, a humanoid robot company, will go public via a SPAC at a $2.5 billion valuation. It is expected to raise more than $620 million, with Foxconn leading a $200 million PIPE investment.

6. FIFA President Gianni Infantino confirmed that after the 2026 World Cup, the proposal to expand the tournament to 64 teams will be studied.

7. Funding rate data from major CEXs and DEXs shows that market sentiment has swung back to a clearly bearish stance.