空叔

Article

Uncle Kong's Mini-Class | Collection of Wyckoff Study Notes—Updated Continuously

This article will be updated continuously with study notes from the Wyckoff series in (Uncle Kong's Mini-Class), making it easy to look things up by lesson and jump straight to what you want to read. We recommend bookmarking it so you can easily find it when reviewing later.
Trading is a game of uncertainty, yet every day you're looking for a teacher who promises guaranteed profits.
Trading requires constant learning, note-taking, and repeated verification. Trading without learning is like sending an untrained soldier into battle—it's asking for trouble. One day, you'll believe that learning can change your destiny.
Uncle Kong's rebate link: https://www.bsmkweb.cc/join?ref=KK1788
Rebate invitation code: KK1788

PINNED

Article

After a year of trading, where's your profit gone? Unveiling the 'silent killer' traders often overlook!

Brothers, staring at the candlestick charts every day, sweating over a few points of gain. But have you ever calculated how much in fees you've paid to the exchange over the year?
Many seasoned traders lose money not because of poor skills, but due to slippage. If you don’t calculate, you won’t realize how shocking it is.
1️⃣ What’s the deal with cashback?
Simply put, it’s a discount on trading fees.
When you enter the cashback code, a portion of the fees from each trade gets automatically refunded to your account. This isn’t a bonus; it’s real cash you should have saved!

Opening positions, taking profits, stop-losses, averaging down, and adding to positions.

1. Opening positions: I use a fixed position size. I can't do what those genius traders do—turn a few hundred USDT into millions in just a few days. The good thing is that I can make steady profits over the long term.

2. Taking profits: I generally don't set a fixed take-profit level. Once I'm in profit, I move my stop-loss step by step to protect my gains. Sometimes I get stopped out too early and miss what comes next, but this approach has also helped me catch some big moves.

3. Stop-losses: This is the hardest part. Every time, I try to keep myself in check and stick to my stop-loss. I know I should cut my losses, but I keep hesitating. That's not about trading skills—it's human nature.

4. Averaging down: I never average down. Being in an unrealized loss means I got it wrong; averaging down just compounds the mistake.

5. Adding to positions: I rarely add to a position unless I'm more than 90% confident. Adding to a position while in profit is also a major taboo.

It takes three years to learn how to take profits and five years to learn how to cut losses.

The market is unpredictable; all you can do is respond to it. Everyone sees something different in the same candlestick chart. Keep learning and refining your trading system, and find a trading approach that suits you. That's how trading starts to feel right and how you can make steady profits over the long term.

I highly recommend studying every day: 《空叔小课堂》.

In crypto, you can believe that learning can change your destiny.

Bearish

Look at my name →_→ “Uncle Short”
When it comes to shorting, you can always trust Uncle Short. 😎

Yesterday, $ETH ’s market volatility peaked at just 50 points. I publicly called a short at 2412 in advance, with three short trades in total:
The first made over 20 points, the second over 30 points, and the third closed out with over 60 points in profit.

Friends, remember: shorting is my specialty.

Bearish

Plan your trade.
Trade your plan.

I announced the ETH short at 2412 in advance. It peaked at 2417, then wicked down to 2377 in just two candles. Those who followed could have pocketed dozens of points.

You can always trust Uncle Short when it comes to shorting.
If you missed it, you can keep shorting when it rebounds to around 2412. #ETH

空叔

Bearish

Another day of sideways trading. I held the ETH short I opened at 2412 all day, and it’s only up around 20 points—what a grind.

I’m still leaning short tonight, and will be cautious about going long. Global markets are falling, and Bitcoin isn’t acting as a safe haven right now. Don’t assume money will flow into crypto just because other assets are dropping.

In this kind of market, I really can’t be bothered to write a long post, so here’s the plan.

If you’re more aggressive, consider opening a short near 2412 and joining me. If you prefer a more conservative approach, wait for a bounce to around 2430 before entering. Put your stop-loss above 2457, with targets at 2360, 2333, and 2280, in that order.

Black Friday: a sluggish day session, but there could be a big move later tonight.

#ETH走势分析 #以太坊Hoodi测试网Glamsterdam硬分叉推迟

Bearish

Article

When Should You Exit After a Breakout Retest? | Uncle Kong’s Trading Class · Lesson 38

First, see whether supply has returned; then see whether the rebound can overcome it
Buying was strong during the breakout, and the pullback afterward came on low volume. Does that mean I can just keep holding?
This time, I want to clear up a point that’s easy to confuse: low volume on a pullback may mean sellers can’t push the price down; low volume on a rebound may also mean buyers can’t push it up. To tell the difference, first look at which direction the price is moving, then consider which side had already shown strength.
Here, supply means the willingness to sell, and demand means the willingness to buy. Trading volume records how much was traded between the two sides. You can’t tell who has the upper hand based on total volume alone—you also need to look at how far the price moved after the trades. When price rises and then returns to an important level to test whether it can find support there again, that’s the retest we’ll discuss below.

Bearish

U.S. stocks crashed, A-shares crashed, and precious metals crashed.
Bitcoin won't hold out much longer. Bulls should stop wishful thinking and cut their losses when necessary. Protecting your principal is most important.

Here's a bit of folk wisdom: Whether it's money you've spent or money you've lost, as long as you part with it willingly and don't dwell on it or regret it afterward, it'll soon find its way back to you through some other means.

Bearish

The plaza is pretty interesting.#BTC

When the market is rising,
everyone is bullish, chasing longs like crazy.

Then the market drops, and suddenly everyone goes quiet.

What happened? Did you all get caught holding the bag?

Why not short? The way I see it, futures exist to make shorting easier.$ETH

Most people are always long,
always bullish, always moved to tears.

In crypto’s early days, new money kept pouring in, so the upside for bulls was limitless. Now it’s a mature market where people are competing over existing capital.

Those days when you could buy with your eyes closed and just wait for the bull market are gone.

The road for bulls is long and winding.

#韩国KOSPI收跌3.52%至4月以来低点

Article

Bitcoin drops 2,600 points, ETH over 100 points; still bearish today

Last night, I posted in advance on the public forum about the short position I’d set up near the top. Bitcoin dropped more than 2,600 points, and ETH gained me over 100 points too, reaching my second take-profit target.
ETH has now broken below the 2,400 level. A lot of people are asking whether they should keep chasing the short. My view is simple: don’t. This drop hasn’t come with much volume, and we’re back at a previous starting point for an upswing. Chasing it lower offers little upside and makes it easy to get stopped out by a rebound. If you really want to short, wait for it to bounce first.
A couple of days ago, Old Niu came to pick up his car, and that evening we went to Big Sis’s teahouse for a while.
As soon as I walked in, I noticed Big Sis had turned the big tea table in the shop around, setting it up north to south. She’d even changed her WeChat name to three obscure Chinese characters.

A fully loaded G63 is still holding its value.
There are all kinds of colors and configurations available.

Low-spec models aren’t selling for much now,
but a fully loaded one still costs around 3.2 million to drive away.
It’s still a strong product.

Bearish

The decline just keeps going—it’s been steadily sliding for more than ten hours.
There’s no sign of a reversal yet. Hold on to last night’s positions and move your stop-loss down step by step to lock in profits. That’s more important than anything else.

Latest update: Bitcoin is up over 2,000 points, Ethereum is up over 120 points (across two trades), and SanDisk is moving down more slowly, by over 40 points.

You only need to get two things right in your life to become very wealthy.
—Charlie Munger
#比特币跌破8.4万美元

空叔

Bearish

Has it crashed? Yesterday everyone was still saying the bull run was coming, and today it suddenly plunged??

Turns out we had opened short positions—mala.
“Mala” is an interesting word. I only found out what it meant after asking Doubao.

I opened a short on Bitcoin at 84,300, and I’m now up more than 1,300 points.
I opened two shorts on Ethereum, and they’re up more than 100 points in total.
Sandisk is also up around 30 points.

I said several times yesterday that it’s easier to make money when you’re on the same side as me. I shared the strategy in advance. If you don’t believe me, there’s nothing I can do.

Today I also learned another phrase: “unexpected imported financial risk.” It means: I told you in advance it was going to plunge—don’t say I didn’t warn you about the risk.

#特朗普拟阐述打击海外加密诈骗

Bearish

Article

After the breakout pullback, which layer of support was broken? | Kongshu’s Mini Class · Lesson 37

Distinguish the breakout level, the low of the breakout candle, and the entire pullback. Don’t use deeper support as a reason to delay your stop-loss.
The price breaks out and then quickly falls back, and there are still several support levels below. Which one should you wait for?
The easy mistake to make is this: you originally planned to exit when the first support gave way, but after it breaks, you put your hope at a lower level. The more reference points you draw on the chart, the farther away the exit condition becomes.
In this lesson, I want to use a real BTC trend to distinguish clearly between two different judgments: the basis for this breakout has been damaged, and the larger rebound may still have support deeper in the move.

Bearish

Woke up to another unrealized profit!

$ETH entered a short position at 2497 for the first trade. The price peaked at 2497.76, then dropped to 2456 within minutes.

For the second trade, I entered short at 2513. The price is now at 2470, putting me more than 40 points in profit again.

I share my strategies publicly and for free in the plaza every day, ahead of time. I won’t wait until after the price drops to tell you.

You’ll have a better chance of making money if you’re on the same side as me.

And while you’re at it, send a message to 👉🏻给顶尖交易员空叔投票.

Bearish

Who else? Who else? 😂

I shared my strategy in advance: opened a short at $ETH 2497. The highest wick reached 2497.76, missing by less than 1 point, then turned down. I’m now up more than 30 points.

Now that’s what you call precision.

I didn’t wait for the price to fall before saying I was bearish. I put the level out there in advance, and the market came around to prove it.

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Article

ETH has risen to 2460. Why am I not chasing a long, but waiting to short at a higher level?

That long I took the day before yesterday was pretty frustrating.
I entered at 2400 and set my stop-loss at 2380. The price dipped as low as 2370 and stopped me out, then started climbing all the way to 2477.
It does sting a little to watch this rebound without having caught it.
The price is hovering around 2460 again. I'm worried that chasing a long here would mean buying halfway up, but going straight short doesn't quite feel right either. I'd rather see if it can make another push higher, then look for a shorting opportunity at resistance.
I ran into my son's art teacher at the gym over the past couple of days. She brought a 27-year-old woman along to talk with me.

Jensen Huang gave a great speech about how intelligence is becoming a commodity, measured in tokens. One token may be worth just a few cents.

The three abilities in short supply in the AI era:
Taste—the ability to appreciate beauty;
Judgment—the ultimate “gatekeeper” of all a person’s knowledge and experience;
The ability to connect—the capacity to engage with things, people, and the world.

So we need to adapt to this era and go with the times.

#股票财报季 #摩根大通预测比特币十年领跑

NVDAB-0.92%

Guys, please help vote for Uncle Kong!

👉点这里给空叔投票

I share my Daily Square strategies early and for free every day.
My win rate is really high—about as high as a three-story building.

If you’ve read my articles and think Uncle Kong’s writing is somewhat valuable, please cast a vote for me.

Thanks for your support, guys! 👉去给空叔投票

Article

Why You Can’t Just Look at the 50% Level After a Strong Rally | Uncle Kong’s Trading Basics · Lesson 36

First see how the pullback unfolds, then decide whether to wait, cancel, or make another plan
After a rally, many people mark the 50% retracement level and wait for the price to return to it. But as the price approaches that line, are sellers finding it increasingly difficult to push prices lower, or is a new downturn just beginning? And if the price rises before reaching that level, does that mean you missed your original entry point?
I’d like to use a stretch of BTC price action to examine all these questions as part of the same process. A halfway retracement is just a price level; how the price gets there is what determines whether the conditions for entering are met.
The following are 4-hour candlesticks of the traded price for Binance BTCUSDT USDT-margined perpetuals, with all times in UTC+8. Each candlestick shows the opening, high, low, and closing prices over a 4-hour period. The thick body connects the opening and closing prices, while the thin lines extend to the high and low. The volume bars below show the amount of BTC traded during each 4-hour period. Teal indicates that the close was at or above the open; reddish brown indicates that the close was below the open.