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“FTX was always solvent,” according to Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF).
SBF, who is currently in prison, claims the exchange had enough assets to cover customer funds at the time of its collapse.
He argues that the bankruptcy filing was mishandled and points to a sworn statement from former FTX data executive Dan Chapsky to support his position.
However, this contradicts the narrative that led to FTX’s bankruptcy, where billions in customer funds were reportedly missing and withdrawals were halted.
The statement is reigniting debate but it doesn’t change the fact that FTX collapsed, users lost access to funds, and legal consequences followed.
SBF, who is currently in prison, claims the exchange had enough assets to cover customer funds at the time of its collapse.
He argues that the bankruptcy filing was mishandled and points to a sworn statement from former FTX data executive Dan Chapsky to support his position.
However, this contradicts the narrative that led to FTX’s bankruptcy, where billions in customer funds were reportedly missing and withdrawals were halted.
The statement is reigniting debate but it doesn’t change the fact that FTX collapsed, users lost access to funds, and legal consequences followed.
$ADA Update
The Cardano Foundation has voted “yes” on the Cardano DeFi Liquidity Budget: Withdrawal 1 proposal.
The proposal requests a withdrawal of 500,000 ADA from the treasury to support DeFi liquidity initiatives within the ecosystem.
In simple terms, this funding would be used to help strengthen liquidity across #Cardano -based DeFi protocols which can improve trading efficiency, reduce slippage, and attract more users.
Treasury withdrawals are part of Cardano’s on-chain governance system, meaning decisions like this go through a structured voting process rather than being made unilaterally.
Voting officially ends tomorrow, so the final outcome will be confirmed soon.
If approved, this move could signal continued focus on expanding DeFi activity within the #Cardano ecosystem something long-term supporters will be watching closely.
The Cardano Foundation has voted “yes” on the Cardano DeFi Liquidity Budget: Withdrawal 1 proposal.
The proposal requests a withdrawal of 500,000 ADA from the treasury to support DeFi liquidity initiatives within the ecosystem.
In simple terms, this funding would be used to help strengthen liquidity across #Cardano -based DeFi protocols which can improve trading efficiency, reduce slippage, and attract more users.
Treasury withdrawals are part of Cardano’s on-chain governance system, meaning decisions like this go through a structured voting process rather than being made unilaterally.
Voting officially ends tomorrow, so the final outcome will be confirmed soon.
If approved, this move could signal continued focus on expanding DeFi activity within the #Cardano ecosystem something long-term supporters will be watching closely.
$PIPPIN is dipping toward the 0.4929 level, and that’s the key area I’m watching right now.
If price reacts strongly there, we could see a bounce. But if it breaks cleanly below that level, it may open the door for further downside.
For now, it’s all about how price behaves at 0.4929. Reaction first then decision.
#Pippin
If price reacts strongly there, we could see a bounce. But if it breaks cleanly below that level, it may open the door for further downside.
For now, it’s all about how price behaves at 0.4929. Reaction first then decision.
#Pippin
$INIT ’s double top played out cleanly, and the key 0.1184 support zone has now been broken.
That breakdown shifted short-term structure bearish, and price is currently moving toward the 0.1107 zone, which is the next area of interest.
If 0.1107 fails to hold and we get a confirmed break below it, that could open the door for another short opportunity. But if buyers step in there, we might see a temporary bounce or consolidation.
For now, momentum favors the downside watching how price reacts at 0.1107 will be key.
#INIT
That breakdown shifted short-term structure bearish, and price is currently moving toward the 0.1107 zone, which is the next area of interest.
If 0.1107 fails to hold and we get a confirmed break below it, that could open the door for another short opportunity. But if buyers step in there, we might see a temporary bounce or consolidation.
For now, momentum favors the downside watching how price reacts at 0.1107 will be key.
#INIT
$INIT just broke the 0.1994 support level, which was acting as a key short-term floor.
A clean break below support usually signals increasing bearish momentum but I’m not jumping in immediately. I’m waiting for the 1-hour candle to close to confirm that this isn’t just a fake breakdown or liquidity sweep.
If the candle closes strong below that level, it could validate the move and offer a more structured entry. If it reclaims the level before close, then it’s likely a trap.
For now, patience. Confirmation first trade second.
#INIT
A clean break below support usually signals increasing bearish momentum but I’m not jumping in immediately. I’m waiting for the 1-hour candle to close to confirm that this isn’t just a fake breakdown or liquidity sweep.
If the candle closes strong below that level, it could validate the move and offer a more structured entry. If it reclaims the level before close, then it’s likely a trap.
For now, patience. Confirmation first trade second.
#INIT
$INIT just broke the 0.1994 support level, which was acting as a key short-term floor.
A clean break below support usually signals increasing bearish momentum but I’m not jumping in immediately. I’m waiting for the 1-hour candle to close to confirm that this isn’t just a fake breakdown or liquidity sweep.
If the candle closes strong below that level, it could validate the move and offer a more structured entry. If it reclaims the level before close, then it’s likely a trap.
For now, patience. Confirmation first trade second.
#INIT
A clean break below support usually signals increasing bearish momentum but I’m not jumping in immediately. I’m waiting for the 1-hour candle to close to confirm that this isn’t just a fake breakdown or liquidity sweep.
If the candle closes strong below that level, it could validate the move and offer a more structured entry. If it reclaims the level before close, then it’s likely a trap.
For now, patience. Confirmation first trade second.
#INIT
Bulls are currently in control on the $INIT chart, but bears are still strong. I’m starting to see signs of potential downside pressure.
A breakdown below the 0.1184 level could signal a solid short entry, targeting the 1.1253 level.
For now, I’m watching that support closely let’s see how price reacts.
A breakdown below the 0.1184 level could signal a solid short entry, targeting the 1.1253 level.
For now, I’m watching that support closely let’s see how price reacts.
Bulls are currently in control on the $INIT chart, but bears are still strong. I’m starting to see signs of potential downside pressure.
A breakdown below the 0.1184 level could signal a solid short entry, targeting the 1.1253 level.
For now, I’m watching that support closely let’s see how price reacts.
A breakdown below the 0.1184 level could signal a solid short entry, targeting the 1.1253 level.
For now, I’m watching that support closely let’s see how price reacts.
Could be a signal for a possible Alt run 🔥
Harvard is starting to pivot from #bitcoin to #Ethereum , a move that could hint at a mini altseason:
Sold 21% of its BlackRock Bitcoin ETF
Bought roughly $87M in BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF
Why it matters:
When $ETH rises, $BTC dominance usually falls, creating room for altcoins to rally.
Even though Harvard’s total crypto holdings are only ~$350M out of its $56.9B AUM, institutional moves like this often influence market sentiment.
A shift from BTC to ETH signals growing confidence in Ethereum and other altcoins among big players, possibly foreshadowing a short-term altcoin upswing.
Harvard is starting to pivot from #bitcoin to #Ethereum , a move that could hint at a mini altseason:
Sold 21% of its BlackRock Bitcoin ETF
Bought roughly $87M in BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF
Why it matters:
When $ETH rises, $BTC dominance usually falls, creating room for altcoins to rally.
Even though Harvard’s total crypto holdings are only ~$350M out of its $56.9B AUM, institutional moves like this often influence market sentiment.
A shift from BTC to ETH signals growing confidence in Ethereum and other altcoins among big players, possibly foreshadowing a short-term altcoin upswing.
Last time a doji formed on the weekly chart, $XRP followed it with a major dump.
Now we’re seeing a similar setup again.
A doji on the weekly timeframe usually signals indecision buyers and sellers are fighting, but neither side has full control.
After a strong move up, that kind of pause can sometimes act as a reversal signal, especially if the next candle confirms weakness.
#Ripple $ETH
Now we’re seeing a similar setup again.
A doji on the weekly timeframe usually signals indecision buyers and sellers are fighting, but neither side has full control.
After a strong move up, that kind of pause can sometimes act as a reversal signal, especially if the next candle confirms weakness.
#Ripple $ETH
On the weekly chart, $XRP is forming a doji again just like the last time before a major dump.
A doji signals indecision. Buyers and sellers are balanced, and momentum is slowing.
Right now, price is sitting between 1.1253 support and 1.6728 resistance.
If the next weekly candle turns bearish, we could see downside continuation. If it holds and pushes up, then the doji may just be consolidation.
For now, it’s a wait-and-see moment. The next candle will likely decide direction.
#Ripple
A doji signals indecision. Buyers and sellers are balanced, and momentum is slowing.
Right now, price is sitting between 1.1253 support and 1.6728 resistance.
If the next weekly candle turns bearish, we could see downside continuation. If it holds and pushes up, then the doji may just be consolidation.
For now, it’s a wait-and-see moment. The next candle will likely decide direction.
#Ripple
I keep telling myself… instead of staking $JUP , I should have just shorted it with the same amount I locked up.
If I had done that, I could’ve easily 10x’d that position with the way price moved down.
And the crazy part? I could’ve used just 1/3 of the profit to buy the dip and still have solid capital left.
But that’s how this game teaches you. Every decision has an opportunity cost. Staking felt “safe” at the time, but the market was clearly showing weakness. I ignored the chart and paid the price.
Good thing is we learn.
Right now, I’m more focused on reading momentum properly. If the structure stays bearish, I’ll look for clean short setups instead of just holding and hoping.
This time, I’m trading what I see not what I feel. $SOL
#solana
If I had done that, I could’ve easily 10x’d that position with the way price moved down.
And the crazy part? I could’ve used just 1/3 of the profit to buy the dip and still have solid capital left.
But that’s how this game teaches you. Every decision has an opportunity cost. Staking felt “safe” at the time, but the market was clearly showing weakness. I ignored the chart and paid the price.
Good thing is we learn.
Right now, I’m more focused on reading momentum properly. If the structure stays bearish, I’ll look for clean short setups instead of just holding and hoping.
This time, I’m trading what I see not what I feel. $SOL
#solana
$HBAR simple view 👇
Price is around 0.10 and pushing into resistance near 0.11 after breaking the downtrend line. That breakout is important.
Scenario 1 (Bullish):
If price holds above 0.10 and stays strong, we could see a quick move toward 0.11–0.12.
Scenario 2 (Rejection):
If price gets rejected at 0.11, it could drop back to the 0.095–0.09 support zone.
So it’s simple:
Hold above = possible push up.
Reject = likely pullback.
Now we watch how price reacts at resistance.
#hbar
Price is around 0.10 and pushing into resistance near 0.11 after breaking the downtrend line. That breakout is important.
Scenario 1 (Bullish):
If price holds above 0.10 and stays strong, we could see a quick move toward 0.11–0.12.
Scenario 2 (Rejection):
If price gets rejected at 0.11, it could drop back to the 0.095–0.09 support zone.
So it’s simple:
Hold above = possible push up.
Reject = likely pullback.
Now we watch how price reacts at resistance.
#hbar
$XRP , bulls stepped in strong around the 1.1253 support level, defending it and pushing price higher.
However, bears are now holding the 1.67 resistance level, preventing a breakout and driving price back down toward 1.4412.
At this point, it’s a clear battle between support and resistance.
Since I trade based on price action and key levels, I’m not forcing anything here.
I just need to see how price reacts around these zones before deciding the next move. Reaction first decision after.
#Ripple
However, bears are now holding the 1.67 resistance level, preventing a breakout and driving price back down toward 1.4412.
At this point, it’s a clear battle between support and resistance.
Since I trade based on price action and key levels, I’m not forcing anything here.
I just need to see how price reacts around these zones before deciding the next move. Reaction first decision after.
#Ripple
An early #Ethereum✅ ICO investor just became active after 10.6 years of dormancy, attempting to move 1 ETH to Gemini but the transaction failed.
Here’s the wild part.
That original $443 ICO investment bought 1,430 $ETH . Today, that stack is worth around $2.81 million a staggering 6,335x return.
Wallets waking up after a decade always grab attention. Sometimes it signals profit-taking. Sometimes it’s just a test transaction before moving larger amounts.
Either way, it’s a reminder of how early conviction in crypto especially in Ethereum’s early days has created life-changing returns.
Now the question is: was this just a test move… or is more ETH about to hit the market?
Here’s the wild part.
That original $443 ICO investment bought 1,430 $ETH . Today, that stack is worth around $2.81 million a staggering 6,335x return.
Wallets waking up after a decade always grab attention. Sometimes it signals profit-taking. Sometimes it’s just a test transaction before moving larger amounts.
Either way, it’s a reminder of how early conviction in crypto especially in Ethereum’s early days has created life-changing returns.
Now the question is: was this just a test move… or is more ETH about to hit the market?
This is interesting.
NOW: Polymarket users are pricing in a 37% chance that #bitcoin hits $75K in February.
That’s not a majority expectation but it’s not small either. It shows a decent portion of the market still believes a strong upside move is possible this month.
When you combine that with current liquidity sitting above key levels, it suggests traders are positioning for volatility. A push toward $75K would likely mean short squeezes and momentum-driven buying.
Still, 37% also means the market isn’t fully convinced. Uncertainty remains.
For now, sentiment is cautiously optimistic but price will have the final say.
$BTC
NOW: Polymarket users are pricing in a 37% chance that #bitcoin hits $75K in February.
That’s not a majority expectation but it’s not small either. It shows a decent portion of the market still believes a strong upside move is possible this month.
When you combine that with current liquidity sitting above key levels, it suggests traders are positioning for volatility. A push toward $75K would likely mean short squeezes and momentum-driven buying.
Still, 37% also means the market isn’t fully convinced. Uncertainty remains.
For now, sentiment is cautiously optimistic but price will have the final say.
$BTC
@Binance BiBi Summarize this content
The Bottom Isn't Here Yet. Here's Why Bitcoin Needs 5-9 More Months.
Question: Is #bitcoin bottoming at $68K?
Short answer: No.
Long answer: We're in month 1 of a 5-9 month capitulation process, and you can't skip steps.
Wait, what?
Let me explain.
Bitcoin doesn't bottom when price crashes 46%.
It doesn't bottom when Fear & Greed hits 15.
It doesn't bottom when $5 billion gets liquidated.
It bottoms when TIME exhausts sellers.
And time? Time takes 5-9 months.
Here's the pattern everyone's missing:
2018 bear market: 113 days (4 months)
2022 bear market: 274 days (9 months)
2026 bear market: 5-9 months from NOW
We just started.
Let me show you what the next 5-9 months look like—and why you can't rush this.
Look at This Chart
See those blue boxes?
Left box: 2018-2019 bear market - 19 bars, 113 days
Middle box: 2022 bear market - 39 bars, 274 days
Right side: 2026 bear market - We just entered
That's how long it takes.
Not a week. Not a month. 4 to 9 months.
And we're in week 2.
What Is a "Time-Based Capitulation Zone"?
Most people think capitulation is about price.
"Price crashes 50%+ = capitulation = bottom."
That's wrong.
Capitulation isn't a single event. It's a process. And that process takes TIME.
The Historical Pattern
Look at Bitcoin's past bear markets:
2018-2019 Bear Market:
Duration: 19 bars (113 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $6K → $3KTimeline: Entered zone November 2018, bottomed December 2018
2022 Bear Market:
Duration: 39 bars (274 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $30K → $15.5KTimeline: Entered zone May 2022, bottomed November 2022
2026 Bear Market (Now):
Duration: Estimated 5-9 monthsPrice range: $126K → $68K (so far)Timeline: Entered zone February 2026, bottom likely July-October 2026
The pattern: Capitulation takes 4-9 months, not days or weeks.
Why Time Matters More Than Price
Here's what most traders get wrong.
What They Focus On (Price Signals):
✓ Price dropped 46%
✓ Fear & Greed hit 15 (Extreme Fear)
✓ $5.42B in liquidations
✓ Volume exhausted
And they say: "All the capitulation signals are here! Buy now!"
The problem: These price-based signals happened in Week 2 of the 2022 bear. The actual bottom came 9 months later.
What Actually Matters (Time Process):
Phase 1: Shock Drop (Weeks 1-4)
Price crashes fast. Panic everywhere. Everyone thinks "this is it."
Phase 2: Dead Cat Bounces (Weeks 5-12)
Price bounces 20-30%. Hope returns. "Bottom is in!" Then it crashes again.
Phase 3: Grinding Lower (Months 3-6)
Slow bleed. No bounces. Just sideways-to-down. Boredom + fear.
Phase 4: Final Capitulation (Months 6-9)
Last panic sell-off. Then... silence. Bottom forms not with a bang, but with exhaustion.
We're currently in Phase 1, heading into Phase 2.
The 2022 Playbook (What to Expect)
Let me show you how 2022 played out—because 2026 is following the same script.
May 2022: The Crash
Luna/UST collapse triggers panic$BTC drops from $40K to $28K (-30%)Everyone: "This is capitulation!"Reality: It wasn't. It was Phase 1.
June-July 2022: Dead Cat Bounces
BTC bounces to $24K, then $22KTraders: "Bottom is in! Back to $30K!"Reality: More longs to liquidate. Back down we go.
August-October 2022: The Grind
BTC ranges $18K-$22KBoring. Sideways. Nobody cares anymore.Volume dries up. Sentiment shifts from fear to apathy.
November 2022: Final Capitulation
FTX collapsesBTC dumps to $15,479This was the actual bottom. 6 months after the initial crash.
Total duration: 6 months from "capitulation started" to "bottom confirmed."
Where We Are Now (February 2026)
We just entered the zone.
Here's what the next 5-9 months probably look like:
February 2026 (NOW):
Crashed to $68K lowFear & Greed hit 15Everyone calling bottomReality: Phase 1 complete. Phases 2-4 ahead.
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounces to $80K-$90K"Bull market is back!" narrativesReality: More liquidations, back down.
May-June 2026:
Grinding lower, $60K-$70K rangeBoredom sets inRetail loses interest
July-August 2026:
Possible final low: $50K-$60K range?Or maybe just a wick to $55KThis is when bottom likely forms.
September-October 2026:
Recovery beginsNew uptrend confirmedFour-year cycle resumes
Total timeline: 5-9 months from now = July-October 2026 bottom.
Why You Can't Rush This
People always ask: "Why can't we just bottom now? All the signals are here!"
Because sellers need time to exhaust.
It's Not About Price, It's About Psychology
Week 1: Panic sellers exit
Week 4: Overleveraged traders get liquidated
Week 8: "Buy the dip" crowd gives up
Week 12: Swing traders capitulate
Month 4: Long-term holders start questioning
Month 6: Final wave of "I'm done with crypto" selling
Only then after TIME has exhausted EVERY type of seller does the bottom form.
You can't skip steps. You can't speed it up.
Capitulation is a process, not an event.
What This Means for You
If we're in a 5-9 month capitulation zone, here's how to think about it:
If You're Waiting to Buy:
Don't go all-in now.
Yes, prices are "cheap" compared to $126K. But they might get cheaper.
Layer your buys:
20% now ($68K range)30% in April-May ($63K-$68K range)50% in July-August ($55K-$63K range)
If You're Already Holding:
Don't panic sell.
If you believe in Bitcoin long-term (2-5 years), this 5-9 month chop is noise.
$50K, $60K, or $70K all irrelevant if it's going to $150K-$200K eventually.
But don't add heavy here. Wait for Phase 4 (final capitulation).
If You're Trading:
Trade the bounces, not the trend.
We're in a range for months. Buy dips, sell rips. Don't hold.
Expect:
Bounces to $78K-$88K (sell)Drops to $58K-$63K (buy)Repeat for 4-6 months
The Key Dates to Watch
Based on historical patterns, here are the critical windows:
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounce phase. If we rally to $83K-$93K, don't FOMO. It's a bull trap.
May-June 2026:
The grind. If you're still underwater, this is where it tests your conviction.
July-August 2026:
Most likely bottom window.
Watch for:
Fear & Greed dropping below 10Capitulation wick (sharp drop + immediate recovery)Volume spike on selling exhaustionOn-chain: Long-term holders accumulating aggressively
September-October 2026:
Confirmation phase. If bottom formed in July-August, this is when uptrend confirms.
What Could Change This Timeline?
Not everything follows historical patterns. Here's what could break the 5-9 month timeline:
Scenario 1: Macro Crash (Faster Bottom)
If Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K in March due to macro collapse, the timeline compresses.
Extreme pain = faster capitulation.
Scenario 2: #etf Inflows Resume (No Deep Bottom)
If institutions start buying again in April-May, we might bottom at $63K-$68K without going lower.
Strong buyers = shallower correction.
Scenario 3: Supercycle (No Traditional Bear)
If CZ's supercycle thesis is right, 2026 might not follow the four-year cycle at all.
New paradigm = no playbook.
But based on current data, the 5-9 month timeline is most likely.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is at $68,000.
We just entered a time-based capitulation zone.
Historical data says:
2018-2019: 113 days (4 months)2022: 274 days (9 months)2026: Likely 5-9 months
What that means:
Bottom probably forms July-October 2026We're only in Phase 1 (shock drop)Phases 2-4 ahead (bounces, grind, final capitulation)Don't expect a quick V-shaped recovery
What to do:
Layer your buys over months, not daysDon't panic sell if holding long-termTrade the range if you're activeWatch July-August for actual bottom signals
The hardest part:
Waiting. Patience. Accepting that the bottom isn't here yet.
But that's how bear markets work.
Time > Price.
What's your take do you think the bottom forms in 5-9 months, or is this timeline wrong? Are you buying now or waiting? Let me know.
Short answer: No.
Long answer: We're in month 1 of a 5-9 month capitulation process, and you can't skip steps.
Wait, what?
Let me explain.
Bitcoin doesn't bottom when price crashes 46%.
It doesn't bottom when Fear & Greed hits 15.
It doesn't bottom when $5 billion gets liquidated.
It bottoms when TIME exhausts sellers.
And time? Time takes 5-9 months.
Here's the pattern everyone's missing:
2018 bear market: 113 days (4 months)
2022 bear market: 274 days (9 months)
2026 bear market: 5-9 months from NOW
We just started.
Let me show you what the next 5-9 months look like—and why you can't rush this.
Look at This Chart
See those blue boxes?
Left box: 2018-2019 bear market - 19 bars, 113 days
Middle box: 2022 bear market - 39 bars, 274 days
Right side: 2026 bear market - We just entered
That's how long it takes.
Not a week. Not a month. 4 to 9 months.
And we're in week 2.
What Is a "Time-Based Capitulation Zone"?
Most people think capitulation is about price.
"Price crashes 50%+ = capitulation = bottom."
That's wrong.
Capitulation isn't a single event. It's a process. And that process takes TIME.
The Historical Pattern
Look at Bitcoin's past bear markets:
2018-2019 Bear Market:
Duration: 19 bars (113 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $6K → $3KTimeline: Entered zone November 2018, bottomed December 2018
2022 Bear Market:
Duration: 39 bars (274 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $30K → $15.5KTimeline: Entered zone May 2022, bottomed November 2022
2026 Bear Market (Now):
Duration: Estimated 5-9 monthsPrice range: $126K → $68K (so far)Timeline: Entered zone February 2026, bottom likely July-October 2026
The pattern: Capitulation takes 4-9 months, not days or weeks.
Why Time Matters More Than Price
Here's what most traders get wrong.
What They Focus On (Price Signals):
✓ Price dropped 46%
✓ Fear & Greed hit 15 (Extreme Fear)
✓ $5.42B in liquidations
✓ Volume exhausted
And they say: "All the capitulation signals are here! Buy now!"
The problem: These price-based signals happened in Week 2 of the 2022 bear. The actual bottom came 9 months later.
What Actually Matters (Time Process):
Phase 1: Shock Drop (Weeks 1-4)
Price crashes fast. Panic everywhere. Everyone thinks "this is it."
Phase 2: Dead Cat Bounces (Weeks 5-12)
Price bounces 20-30%. Hope returns. "Bottom is in!" Then it crashes again.
Phase 3: Grinding Lower (Months 3-6)
Slow bleed. No bounces. Just sideways-to-down. Boredom + fear.
Phase 4: Final Capitulation (Months 6-9)
Last panic sell-off. Then... silence. Bottom forms not with a bang, but with exhaustion.
We're currently in Phase 1, heading into Phase 2.
The 2022 Playbook (What to Expect)
Let me show you how 2022 played out—because 2026 is following the same script.
May 2022: The Crash
Luna/UST collapse triggers panic$BTC drops from $40K to $28K (-30%)Everyone: "This is capitulation!"Reality: It wasn't. It was Phase 1.
June-July 2022: Dead Cat Bounces
BTC bounces to $24K, then $22KTraders: "Bottom is in! Back to $30K!"Reality: More longs to liquidate. Back down we go.
August-October 2022: The Grind
BTC ranges $18K-$22KBoring. Sideways. Nobody cares anymore.Volume dries up. Sentiment shifts from fear to apathy.
November 2022: Final Capitulation
FTX collapsesBTC dumps to $15,479This was the actual bottom. 6 months after the initial crash.
Total duration: 6 months from "capitulation started" to "bottom confirmed."
Where We Are Now (February 2026)
We just entered the zone.
Here's what the next 5-9 months probably look like:
February 2026 (NOW):
Crashed to $68K lowFear & Greed hit 15Everyone calling bottomReality: Phase 1 complete. Phases 2-4 ahead.
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounces to $80K-$90K"Bull market is back!" narrativesReality: More liquidations, back down.
May-June 2026:
Grinding lower, $60K-$70K rangeBoredom sets inRetail loses interest
July-August 2026:
Possible final low: $50K-$60K range?Or maybe just a wick to $55KThis is when bottom likely forms.
September-October 2026:
Recovery beginsNew uptrend confirmedFour-year cycle resumes
Total timeline: 5-9 months from now = July-October 2026 bottom.
Why You Can't Rush This
People always ask: "Why can't we just bottom now? All the signals are here!"
Because sellers need time to exhaust.
It's Not About Price, It's About Psychology
Week 1: Panic sellers exit
Week 4: Overleveraged traders get liquidated
Week 8: "Buy the dip" crowd gives up
Week 12: Swing traders capitulate
Month 4: Long-term holders start questioning
Month 6: Final wave of "I'm done with crypto" selling
Only then after TIME has exhausted EVERY type of seller does the bottom form.
You can't skip steps. You can't speed it up.
Capitulation is a process, not an event.
What This Means for You
If we're in a 5-9 month capitulation zone, here's how to think about it:
If You're Waiting to Buy:
Don't go all-in now.
Yes, prices are "cheap" compared to $126K. But they might get cheaper.
Layer your buys:
20% now ($68K range)30% in April-May ($63K-$68K range)50% in July-August ($55K-$63K range)
If You're Already Holding:
Don't panic sell.
If you believe in Bitcoin long-term (2-5 years), this 5-9 month chop is noise.
$50K, $60K, or $70K all irrelevant if it's going to $150K-$200K eventually.
But don't add heavy here. Wait for Phase 4 (final capitulation).
If You're Trading:
Trade the bounces, not the trend.
We're in a range for months. Buy dips, sell rips. Don't hold.
Expect:
Bounces to $78K-$88K (sell)Drops to $58K-$63K (buy)Repeat for 4-6 months
The Key Dates to Watch
Based on historical patterns, here are the critical windows:
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounce phase. If we rally to $83K-$93K, don't FOMO. It's a bull trap.
May-June 2026:
The grind. If you're still underwater, this is where it tests your conviction.
July-August 2026:
Most likely bottom window.
Watch for:
Fear & Greed dropping below 10Capitulation wick (sharp drop + immediate recovery)Volume spike on selling exhaustionOn-chain: Long-term holders accumulating aggressively
September-October 2026:
Confirmation phase. If bottom formed in July-August, this is when uptrend confirms.
What Could Change This Timeline?
Not everything follows historical patterns. Here's what could break the 5-9 month timeline:
Scenario 1: Macro Crash (Faster Bottom)
If Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K in March due to macro collapse, the timeline compresses.
Extreme pain = faster capitulation.
Scenario 2: #etf Inflows Resume (No Deep Bottom)
If institutions start buying again in April-May, we might bottom at $63K-$68K without going lower.
Strong buyers = shallower correction.
Scenario 3: Supercycle (No Traditional Bear)
If CZ's supercycle thesis is right, 2026 might not follow the four-year cycle at all.
New paradigm = no playbook.
But based on current data, the 5-9 month timeline is most likely.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is at $68,000.
We just entered a time-based capitulation zone.
Historical data says:
2018-2019: 113 days (4 months)2022: 274 days (9 months)2026: Likely 5-9 months
What that means:
Bottom probably forms July-October 2026We're only in Phase 1 (shock drop)Phases 2-4 ahead (bounces, grind, final capitulation)Don't expect a quick V-shaped recovery
What to do:
Layer your buys over months, not daysDon't panic sell if holding long-termTrade the range if you're activeWatch July-August for actual bottom signals
The hardest part:
Waiting. Patience. Accepting that the bottom isn't here yet.
But that's how bear markets work.
Time > Price.
What's your take do you think the bottom forms in 5-9 months, or is this timeline wrong? Are you buying now or waiting? Let me know.
The Bottom Isn't Here Yet. Here's Why Bitcoin Needs 5-9 More Months.
Question: Is #bitcoin bottoming at $68K?
Short answer: No.
Long answer: We're in month 1 of a 5-9 month capitulation process, and you can't skip steps.
Wait, what?
Let me explain.
Bitcoin doesn't bottom when price crashes 46%.
It doesn't bottom when Fear & Greed hits 15.
It doesn't bottom when $5 billion gets liquidated.
It bottoms when TIME exhausts sellers.
And time? Time takes 5-9 months.
Here's the pattern everyone's missing:
2018 bear market: 113 days (4 months)
2022 bear market: 274 days (9 months)
2026 bear market: 5-9 months from NOW
We just started.
Let me show you what the next 5-9 months look like—and why you can't rush this.
Look at This Chart
See those blue boxes?
Left box: 2018-2019 bear market - 19 bars, 113 days
Middle box: 2022 bear market - 39 bars, 274 days
Right side: 2026 bear market - We just entered
That's how long it takes.
Not a week. Not a month. 4 to 9 months.
And we're in week 2.
What Is a "Time-Based Capitulation Zone"?
Most people think capitulation is about price.
"Price crashes 50%+ = capitulation = bottom."
That's wrong.
Capitulation isn't a single event. It's a process. And that process takes TIME.
The Historical Pattern
Look at Bitcoin's past bear markets:
2018-2019 Bear Market:
Duration: 19 bars (113 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $6K → $3KTimeline: Entered zone November 2018, bottomed December 2018
2022 Bear Market:
Duration: 39 bars (274 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $30K → $15.5KTimeline: Entered zone May 2022, bottomed November 2022
2026 Bear Market (Now):
Duration: Estimated 5-9 monthsPrice range: $126K → $68K (so far)Timeline: Entered zone February 2026, bottom likely July-October 2026
The pattern: Capitulation takes 4-9 months, not days or weeks.
Why Time Matters More Than Price
Here's what most traders get wrong.
What They Focus On (Price Signals):
✓ Price dropped 46%
✓ Fear & Greed hit 15 (Extreme Fear)
✓ $5.42B in liquidations
✓ Volume exhausted
And they say: "All the capitulation signals are here! Buy now!"
The problem: These price-based signals happened in Week 2 of the 2022 bear. The actual bottom came 9 months later.
What Actually Matters (Time Process):
Phase 1: Shock Drop (Weeks 1-4)
Price crashes fast. Panic everywhere. Everyone thinks "this is it."
Phase 2: Dead Cat Bounces (Weeks 5-12)
Price bounces 20-30%. Hope returns. "Bottom is in!" Then it crashes again.
Phase 3: Grinding Lower (Months 3-6)
Slow bleed. No bounces. Just sideways-to-down. Boredom + fear.
Phase 4: Final Capitulation (Months 6-9)
Last panic sell-off. Then... silence. Bottom forms not with a bang, but with exhaustion.
We're currently in Phase 1, heading into Phase 2.
The 2022 Playbook (What to Expect)
Let me show you how 2022 played out—because 2026 is following the same script.
May 2022: The Crash
Luna/UST collapse triggers panic$BTC drops from $40K to $28K (-30%)Everyone: "This is capitulation!"Reality: It wasn't. It was Phase 1.
June-July 2022: Dead Cat Bounces
BTC bounces to $24K, then $22KTraders: "Bottom is in! Back to $30K!"Reality: More longs to liquidate. Back down we go.
August-October 2022: The Grind
BTC ranges $18K-$22KBoring. Sideways. Nobody cares anymore.Volume dries up. Sentiment shifts from fear to apathy.
November 2022: Final Capitulation
FTX collapsesBTC dumps to $15,479This was the actual bottom. 6 months after the initial crash.
Total duration: 6 months from "capitulation started" to "bottom confirmed."
Where We Are Now (February 2026)
We just entered the zone.
Here's what the next 5-9 months probably look like:
February 2026 (NOW):
Crashed to $68K lowFear & Greed hit 15Everyone calling bottomReality: Phase 1 complete. Phases 2-4 ahead.
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounces to $80K-$90K"Bull market is back!" narrativesReality: More liquidations, back down.
May-June 2026:
Grinding lower, $60K-$70K rangeBoredom sets inRetail loses interest
July-August 2026:
Possible final low: $50K-$60K range?Or maybe just a wick to $55KThis is when bottom likely forms.
September-October 2026:
Recovery beginsNew uptrend confirmedFour-year cycle resumes
Total timeline: 5-9 months from now = July-October 2026 bottom.
Why You Can't Rush This
People always ask: "Why can't we just bottom now? All the signals are here!"
Because sellers need time to exhaust.
It's Not About Price, It's About Psychology
Week 1: Panic sellers exit
Week 4: Overleveraged traders get liquidated
Week 8: "Buy the dip" crowd gives up
Week 12: Swing traders capitulate
Month 4: Long-term holders start questioning
Month 6: Final wave of "I'm done with crypto" selling
Only then after TIME has exhausted EVERY type of seller does the bottom form.
You can't skip steps. You can't speed it up.
Capitulation is a process, not an event.
What This Means for You
If we're in a 5-9 month capitulation zone, here's how to think about it:
If You're Waiting to Buy:
Don't go all-in now.
Yes, prices are "cheap" compared to $126K. But they might get cheaper.
Layer your buys:
20% now ($68K range)30% in April-May ($63K-$68K range)50% in July-August ($55K-$63K range)
If You're Already Holding:
Don't panic sell.
If you believe in Bitcoin long-term (2-5 years), this 5-9 month chop is noise.
$50K, $60K, or $70K all irrelevant if it's going to $150K-$200K eventually.
But don't add heavy here. Wait for Phase 4 (final capitulation).
If You're Trading:
Trade the bounces, not the trend.
We're in a range for months. Buy dips, sell rips. Don't hold.
Expect:
Bounces to $78K-$88K (sell)Drops to $58K-$63K (buy)Repeat for 4-6 months
The Key Dates to Watch
Based on historical patterns, here are the critical windows:
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounce phase. If we rally to $83K-$93K, don't FOMO. It's a bull trap.
May-June 2026:
The grind. If you're still underwater, this is where it tests your conviction.
July-August 2026:
Most likely bottom window.
Watch for:
Fear & Greed dropping below 10Capitulation wick (sharp drop + immediate recovery)Volume spike on selling exhaustionOn-chain: Long-term holders accumulating aggressively
September-October 2026:
Confirmation phase. If bottom formed in July-August, this is when uptrend confirms.
What Could Change This Timeline?
Not everything follows historical patterns. Here's what could break the 5-9 month timeline:
Scenario 1: Macro Crash (Faster Bottom)
If Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K in March due to macro collapse, the timeline compresses.
Extreme pain = faster capitulation.
Scenario 2: #etf Inflows Resume (No Deep Bottom)
If institutions start buying again in April-May, we might bottom at $63K-$68K without going lower.
Strong buyers = shallower correction.
Scenario 3: Supercycle (No Traditional Bear)
If CZ's supercycle thesis is right, 2026 might not follow the four-year cycle at all.
New paradigm = no playbook.
But based on current data, the 5-9 month timeline is most likely.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is at $68,000.
We just entered a time-based capitulation zone.
Historical data says:
2018-2019: 113 days (4 months)2022: 274 days (9 months)2026: Likely 5-9 months
What that means:
Bottom probably forms July-October 2026We're only in Phase 1 (shock drop)Phases 2-4 ahead (bounces, grind, final capitulation)Don't expect a quick V-shaped recovery
What to do:
Layer your buys over months, not daysDon't panic sell if holding long-termTrade the range if you're activeWatch July-August for actual bottom signals
The hardest part:
Waiting. Patience. Accepting that the bottom isn't here yet.
But that's how bear markets work.
Time > Price.
What's your take do you think the bottom forms in 5-9 months, or is this timeline wrong? Are you buying now or waiting? Let me know.
Short answer: No.
Long answer: We're in month 1 of a 5-9 month capitulation process, and you can't skip steps.
Wait, what?
Let me explain.
Bitcoin doesn't bottom when price crashes 46%.
It doesn't bottom when Fear & Greed hits 15.
It doesn't bottom when $5 billion gets liquidated.
It bottoms when TIME exhausts sellers.
And time? Time takes 5-9 months.
Here's the pattern everyone's missing:
2018 bear market: 113 days (4 months)
2022 bear market: 274 days (9 months)
2026 bear market: 5-9 months from NOW
We just started.
Let me show you what the next 5-9 months look like—and why you can't rush this.
Look at This Chart
See those blue boxes?
Left box: 2018-2019 bear market - 19 bars, 113 days
Middle box: 2022 bear market - 39 bars, 274 days
Right side: 2026 bear market - We just entered
That's how long it takes.
Not a week. Not a month. 4 to 9 months.
And we're in week 2.
What Is a "Time-Based Capitulation Zone"?
Most people think capitulation is about price.
"Price crashes 50%+ = capitulation = bottom."
That's wrong.
Capitulation isn't a single event. It's a process. And that process takes TIME.
The Historical Pattern
Look at Bitcoin's past bear markets:
2018-2019 Bear Market:
Duration: 19 bars (113 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $6K → $3KTimeline: Entered zone November 2018, bottomed December 2018
2022 Bear Market:
Duration: 39 bars (274 days) in capitulation zonePrice range: $30K → $15.5KTimeline: Entered zone May 2022, bottomed November 2022
2026 Bear Market (Now):
Duration: Estimated 5-9 monthsPrice range: $126K → $68K (so far)Timeline: Entered zone February 2026, bottom likely July-October 2026
The pattern: Capitulation takes 4-9 months, not days or weeks.
Why Time Matters More Than Price
Here's what most traders get wrong.
What They Focus On (Price Signals):
✓ Price dropped 46%
✓ Fear & Greed hit 15 (Extreme Fear)
✓ $5.42B in liquidations
✓ Volume exhausted
And they say: "All the capitulation signals are here! Buy now!"
The problem: These price-based signals happened in Week 2 of the 2022 bear. The actual bottom came 9 months later.
What Actually Matters (Time Process):
Phase 1: Shock Drop (Weeks 1-4)
Price crashes fast. Panic everywhere. Everyone thinks "this is it."
Phase 2: Dead Cat Bounces (Weeks 5-12)
Price bounces 20-30%. Hope returns. "Bottom is in!" Then it crashes again.
Phase 3: Grinding Lower (Months 3-6)
Slow bleed. No bounces. Just sideways-to-down. Boredom + fear.
Phase 4: Final Capitulation (Months 6-9)
Last panic sell-off. Then... silence. Bottom forms not with a bang, but with exhaustion.
We're currently in Phase 1, heading into Phase 2.
The 2022 Playbook (What to Expect)
Let me show you how 2022 played out—because 2026 is following the same script.
May 2022: The Crash
Luna/UST collapse triggers panic$BTC drops from $40K to $28K (-30%)Everyone: "This is capitulation!"Reality: It wasn't. It was Phase 1.
June-July 2022: Dead Cat Bounces
BTC bounces to $24K, then $22KTraders: "Bottom is in! Back to $30K!"Reality: More longs to liquidate. Back down we go.
August-October 2022: The Grind
BTC ranges $18K-$22KBoring. Sideways. Nobody cares anymore.Volume dries up. Sentiment shifts from fear to apathy.
November 2022: Final Capitulation
FTX collapsesBTC dumps to $15,479This was the actual bottom. 6 months after the initial crash.
Total duration: 6 months from "capitulation started" to "bottom confirmed."
Where We Are Now (February 2026)
We just entered the zone.
Here's what the next 5-9 months probably look like:
February 2026 (NOW):
Crashed to $68K lowFear & Greed hit 15Everyone calling bottomReality: Phase 1 complete. Phases 2-4 ahead.
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounces to $80K-$90K"Bull market is back!" narrativesReality: More liquidations, back down.
May-June 2026:
Grinding lower, $60K-$70K rangeBoredom sets inRetail loses interest
July-August 2026:
Possible final low: $50K-$60K range?Or maybe just a wick to $55KThis is when bottom likely forms.
September-October 2026:
Recovery beginsNew uptrend confirmedFour-year cycle resumes
Total timeline: 5-9 months from now = July-October 2026 bottom.
Why You Can't Rush This
People always ask: "Why can't we just bottom now? All the signals are here!"
Because sellers need time to exhaust.
It's Not About Price, It's About Psychology
Week 1: Panic sellers exit
Week 4: Overleveraged traders get liquidated
Week 8: "Buy the dip" crowd gives up
Week 12: Swing traders capitulate
Month 4: Long-term holders start questioning
Month 6: Final wave of "I'm done with crypto" selling
Only then after TIME has exhausted EVERY type of seller does the bottom form.
You can't skip steps. You can't speed it up.
Capitulation is a process, not an event.
What This Means for You
If we're in a 5-9 month capitulation zone, here's how to think about it:
If You're Waiting to Buy:
Don't go all-in now.
Yes, prices are "cheap" compared to $126K. But they might get cheaper.
Layer your buys:
20% now ($68K range)30% in April-May ($63K-$68K range)50% in July-August ($55K-$63K range)
If You're Already Holding:
Don't panic sell.
If you believe in Bitcoin long-term (2-5 years), this 5-9 month chop is noise.
$50K, $60K, or $70K all irrelevant if it's going to $150K-$200K eventually.
But don't add heavy here. Wait for Phase 4 (final capitulation).
If You're Trading:
Trade the bounces, not the trend.
We're in a range for months. Buy dips, sell rips. Don't hold.
Expect:
Bounces to $78K-$88K (sell)Drops to $58K-$63K (buy)Repeat for 4-6 months
The Key Dates to Watch
Based on historical patterns, here are the critical windows:
March-April 2026:
Dead cat bounce phase. If we rally to $83K-$93K, don't FOMO. It's a bull trap.
May-June 2026:
The grind. If you're still underwater, this is where it tests your conviction.
July-August 2026:
Most likely bottom window.
Watch for:
Fear & Greed dropping below 10Capitulation wick (sharp drop + immediate recovery)Volume spike on selling exhaustionOn-chain: Long-term holders accumulating aggressively
September-October 2026:
Confirmation phase. If bottom formed in July-August, this is when uptrend confirms.
What Could Change This Timeline?
Not everything follows historical patterns. Here's what could break the 5-9 month timeline:
Scenario 1: Macro Crash (Faster Bottom)
If Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K in March due to macro collapse, the timeline compresses.
Extreme pain = faster capitulation.
Scenario 2: #etf Inflows Resume (No Deep Bottom)
If institutions start buying again in April-May, we might bottom at $63K-$68K without going lower.
Strong buyers = shallower correction.
Scenario 3: Supercycle (No Traditional Bear)
If CZ's supercycle thesis is right, 2026 might not follow the four-year cycle at all.
New paradigm = no playbook.
But based on current data, the 5-9 month timeline is most likely.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is at $68,000.
We just entered a time-based capitulation zone.
Historical data says:
2018-2019: 113 days (4 months)2022: 274 days (9 months)2026: Likely 5-9 months
What that means:
Bottom probably forms July-October 2026We're only in Phase 1 (shock drop)Phases 2-4 ahead (bounces, grind, final capitulation)Don't expect a quick V-shaped recovery
What to do:
Layer your buys over months, not daysDon't panic sell if holding long-termTrade the range if you're activeWatch July-August for actual bottom signals
The hardest part:
Waiting. Patience. Accepting that the bottom isn't here yet.
But that's how bear markets work.
Time > Price.
What's your take do you think the bottom forms in 5-9 months, or is this timeline wrong? Are you buying now or waiting? Let me know.
now I know the physics behind the dip
Why Most "Dip Buyers" Get Liquated: The Physics of the Staircase vs. The Elevator
Many traders think a 5% drop is just a 5% drop. They see $BTC hitting $67k and blindly click "Buy" because it’s "cheap."
I disagree. As a trader who has survived three cycles, I’ve learned that how we get to a level is more important than the level itself. Today, I’m going to share the mental model that changed my PnL: The Physics of Market Velocity.
1. The "Aha" Moment: Velocity > Price
If you take 1,000 trades, you’ll realize that support levels don't fail because they are weak; they fail because the velocity of the approach was too high for buyers to absorb.
The Elevator: A fast, vertical drop (Liquidity Gap).
The Staircase: A slow, grinding descent (Distribution).
2. Trading the "Elevator" (The Flash Crash)
When $BTC moves like an elevator, dropping $3k in 5 minutes, it creates a "Liquidity Hole." There aren't enough orders to fill the gap, so the price "teleports" down.
Why it’s a Buy: These moves are usually driven by liquidations (forced selling), not fundamental change. Once the liquidations stop, price snaps back like a rubber band to fill the gap.
The Rule: Look for a massive volume spike + a vertical candle. This is "High Quality" volatility.
3. The "Staircase" (The Death Grind)
A "Staircase" is when $BTC grinds down slowly, creating small "steps" (lower highs and lower lows) over 12–24 hours. This is the most dangerous environment for a retail trader.
The Physics: This isn't a panic; it’s Distribution. Big players are slowly exiting their positions, and every "bounce" is just another step lower.
Why it’s a Trap: It feels "safe" because it’s not crashing, so traders keep adding to their longs. This is how you get "paper-cut" to death.
The Rule: If price is "grinding" into a support level with decreasing volume on the bounces, do not touch it.
4. The Math of Absorption
We can quantify this using a simplified Volume/Time ratio:
High Velocity (Elevator): High Price in low Time. This leads to Mean Reversion (Price returning to the average).
Low Velocity (Staircase): Low Price over high Time. This leads to Trend Continuation (Price breaking through support).
5. My Entry Checklist for $BTC at $67k
Before I long a support level, I run this 3-point check:
How did we get here? If it was an "Elevator" (fast spike), I’m looking for the long. If it was a "Staircase" (slow grind), I stay flat.
Volume Profile: Is there a "Volume Climax"? I want to see the highest volume candle of the day at the bottom of the move.
The "Spring" Test: Does the price bounce immediately? If it sits on support for more than an hour, the support is likely to break.
Summary: Respect the GrindIn 2026, the market is smarter than ever. The "Elevator" gives you a gift; the "Staircase" takes your capital.
Next time $BTC hits a major level, ask yourself: "Did we take the stairs or the elevator?
Are you currently caught in the $67k staircase, or are you waiting for a liquidation elevator to hit the bottom?
Hope you learned something new?
I disagree. As a trader who has survived three cycles, I’ve learned that how we get to a level is more important than the level itself. Today, I’m going to share the mental model that changed my PnL: The Physics of Market Velocity.
1. The "Aha" Moment: Velocity > Price
If you take 1,000 trades, you’ll realize that support levels don't fail because they are weak; they fail because the velocity of the approach was too high for buyers to absorb.
The Elevator: A fast, vertical drop (Liquidity Gap).
The Staircase: A slow, grinding descent (Distribution).
2. Trading the "Elevator" (The Flash Crash)
When $BTC moves like an elevator, dropping $3k in 5 minutes, it creates a "Liquidity Hole." There aren't enough orders to fill the gap, so the price "teleports" down.
Why it’s a Buy: These moves are usually driven by liquidations (forced selling), not fundamental change. Once the liquidations stop, price snaps back like a rubber band to fill the gap.
The Rule: Look for a massive volume spike + a vertical candle. This is "High Quality" volatility.
3. The "Staircase" (The Death Grind)
A "Staircase" is when $BTC grinds down slowly, creating small "steps" (lower highs and lower lows) over 12–24 hours. This is the most dangerous environment for a retail trader.
The Physics: This isn't a panic; it’s Distribution. Big players are slowly exiting their positions, and every "bounce" is just another step lower.
Why it’s a Trap: It feels "safe" because it’s not crashing, so traders keep adding to their longs. This is how you get "paper-cut" to death.
The Rule: If price is "grinding" into a support level with decreasing volume on the bounces, do not touch it.
4. The Math of Absorption
We can quantify this using a simplified Volume/Time ratio:
High Velocity (Elevator): High Price in low Time. This leads to Mean Reversion (Price returning to the average).
Low Velocity (Staircase): Low Price over high Time. This leads to Trend Continuation (Price breaking through support).
5. My Entry Checklist for $BTC at $67k
Before I long a support level, I run this 3-point check:
How did we get here? If it was an "Elevator" (fast spike), I’m looking for the long. If it was a "Staircase" (slow grind), I stay flat.
Volume Profile: Is there a "Volume Climax"? I want to see the highest volume candle of the day at the bottom of the move.
The "Spring" Test: Does the price bounce immediately? If it sits on support for more than an hour, the support is likely to break.
Summary: Respect the GrindIn 2026, the market is smarter than ever. The "Elevator" gives you a gift; the "Staircase" takes your capital.
Next time $BTC hits a major level, ask yourself: "Did we take the stairs or the elevator?
Are you currently caught in the $67k staircase, or are you waiting for a liquidation elevator to hit the bottom?
Hope you learned something new?
My simple take on $Fogo
Just came across something interesting from @Fogo Official .
They’re building with one clear goal: enable the best on-chain trading experience for everyone.
Fogo is a high-performance Layer 1 built on the #solana Virtual Machine (SVM). That alone tells you the focus is speed. But it’s not just about being fast it’s about building specifically for:
On-chain trading
DeFi
Real-time financial apps
Basically, environments where execution speed and low friction actually matter.
In markets like this, cost and latency aren’t small details. They’re everything. The difference between profit and slippage. Between getting filled or getting left behind.
I’ll be digging deeper into Fogo and their native token $FOGO soon.
From a first glance, the chart structure looks clean. But as always, structure first… conviction later.
Let’s see how this develops.
#fogo $SOL $XRP
They’re building with one clear goal: enable the best on-chain trading experience for everyone.
Fogo is a high-performance Layer 1 built on the #solana Virtual Machine (SVM). That alone tells you the focus is speed. But it’s not just about being fast it’s about building specifically for:
On-chain trading
DeFi
Real-time financial apps
Basically, environments where execution speed and low friction actually matter.
In markets like this, cost and latency aren’t small details. They’re everything. The difference between profit and slippage. Between getting filled or getting left behind.
I’ll be digging deeper into Fogo and their native token $FOGO soon.
From a first glance, the chart structure looks clean. But as always, structure first… conviction later.
Let’s see how this develops.
#fogo $SOL $XRP
Was checking out $FOGO charts.
Saw rejection around 0.02253 and thought we might push toward the next key high.
I planned to wait and see how price reacts, but for now it looks like bears are stepping in.
The rejection candle hasn’t fully confirmed yet, so I’m watching closely. Still, the tech behind @Fogo Official looks solid long term. Let’s see how this plays out.
#fogo $SOL
Saw rejection around 0.02253 and thought we might push toward the next key high.
I planned to wait and see how price reacts, but for now it looks like bears are stepping in.
The rejection candle hasn’t fully confirmed yet, so I’m watching closely. Still, the tech behind @Fogo Official looks solid long term. Let’s see how this plays out.
#fogo $SOL
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