Erin0018

It's now December 30, 2024, and I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year in advance!

For nearly half the year, I've been telling everyone to stack up BTC below 60k, and now it's at 104k.

Looking back, anything below 60k is a solid bottom. I've been reiterating not to be afraid, to boldly load up, because I predict that the top in 2025 will likely be between 110k and 120k.

2024-2025 is the main window for the bull market, and we are at a pivotal point. If 2024 is the planting season, then 2025 is the harvest season.

This year, we managed to catch the bottom together, and I've been instilling confidence in everyone to hold onto their spot. For next year, our strategy will be to take profits at the top.

Right now, with BTC at 100k, it's already a bit high. BTC should still push higher a few more times, peaking around 120k. So our strategy for 2025 will be: take profits, take profits, and take more profits.

Every cycle has those blinded by greed. Remember, only when you lock in those profits and pocket the USDT is it real; otherwise, it's just play money.

It's June 30, 2024.

Based on my four years in the game, that 74k isn't the top; it's just a consolidation phase.

BTC is gonna accumulate here, and prices below 60k are looking pretty sexy. I'm gonna keep stacking up here.

I predict BTC could break 74k by the end of the year, with a conservative push toward 100k. The top of this cycle might be around 110k-120k, and I'll be taking profits and exiting there, marking the end of this bull run.

About the Trend of Niu Lai

As everyone knows, the way the whale/broker (the operator) trades one coin will repeat itself. Let’s review the daily chart trend of Niu Lai.

The four K-lines for Rise 1 and Rise 2 are almost identical
The three K-lines for the Top-building 1 and Top-building 2 are also almost the same

So will Stop-Drop 2 imitate Stop-Drop 1’s走势, forming a bottom to let Niu Lai continue breaking upward to a new high, becoming the leading dragon of this BSC season?

The next few days’ trend is crucial!
$牛来

The "leader strategy" should be the highest value-for-money trading setup on the chain.

First, leaders are very easy to spot: the leader with the highest on-chain market cap is the one—like BSC’s Niu Lai, Marscoin, RH’s Pons, and AI.

Next, coins outside the leaders are basically riding the leader’s liquidity to pump. When smaller coins surge hard, the leader will only rise even more aggressively. When the leader dies, the entire sector is effectively disproven, and the smaller coins will die even faster.

So it’s better to just buy the leader directly.

I’ve been shouting about Marscoin for several days. The entry logic is all written below. I can only tell you that when the new high is just getting started. If you’re afraid to get on, just watch me make money!

Since Marscoin was launched, it’s been 35 days. For 17 of those days, it has mainly been accumulating. Almost all of the chips have been locked up by the big money. This time is big—just hold on for now.

Marscoin is the first coin-stock meme leader to be born on BSC. It’s the leading force of the next coin-stock narrative, the pioneer of a new track. And the previous leader of the AI meme frenzy was AI16z, which peaked at a market cap of 2 billion.

I think Marscoin is about time to step up—the seemingly unfolding accumulation structure. Right now is still a very good entry point. If you miss it, wait another month 😂

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＃Marscoin
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Those who missed out on the bullish move can check out Marscoin. Judging from the technical chart, the operator is basically coming into view; all that’s missing is a catalyst for the pump.

The operator has been accumulating near the 35m level for nearly 15 days. Keep in mind this coin has only existed for 33 days so far. The 45m area is currently a very high value-for-money entry point.

Marscoin is also market-made and traded by a foreign maker from the Butterfly platform. It shares the same origin with the bulls, but Marscoin is in the crypto-and-stocks (coin-stock) sector; the two don’t have a “Dragon One/Dragon Two” relationship. Perhaps they’ll rise side by side in competition!

How to make 100,000 yuan in the crypto market?

Based on my experience, making 100,000 yuan is very difficult.

Because people who have a methodology can “print money endlessly” in liquidity.

People without a methodology are so poor they can’t even make ends meet; every day they just cycle between going to zero and depositing funds again.

Making 100,000 yuan sits between these two situations—earning it overnight is possible only by luck, but because of cognition issues, it will eventually be returned to the market.

In fact, the crypto market is really simple. In short, it’s: the market maker accumulates chips at low prices, and distributes chips at high prices.

So if you want to make money, there are only three steps:

1. Determine that this coin has a strong market maker

2. The coin is currently in the accumulation stage

3. Buy

More precisely, this method applies to any hot trend. For example, real estate is backed by a strong market maker to set up a scheme: accumulate land, drive up home prices, go long on the real estate ecosystem, and distribute to the 80s and 90s homebuyers who have genuine housing demand (stating facts only, with no malice!). Many holders in developed areas benefited (early holders). The real homebuyers who entered early to buy homes—or savvy speculators with higher levels of understanding—bought during the accumulation stage, which confirms the methodology above.

Why did you only start to realize that the hot trend is a hot trend gradually as it passed? Little did you know you were stepping onto the next hot trend at the time—but because of cognition and bias, you felt that it wasn’t a hot trend.
$BTC

What changes will happen in the crypto world in the next twenty years?

There won’t be much change. The essence of digital currency is a casino.

Why is the crypto world so hot?

Because its gameplay caters to human greed. Countless people have gone from nothing to riches, then exited—driven by the natural human desire for a get-rich-quick myth.

Why are there so many people who end up ruined from trading crypto?

Also because it exploits human weaknesses. Trading is against human nature, and people can’t accept losses. After you start trading, do you frequently check your position—and feel immense pressure because you’re sitting on unrealized losses?

As long as people in the future are still human, and humans still have human nature, then the crypto world won’t collapse. In other words, casinos have never gone extinct, from ancient times to today!
$BTC

The on-chain new season is here!

Yesterday, the Solana chain saw a huge dogcoin whale—$ANSEM—and today someone did a 100m sprint run in no time.

What does that mean? On the Solana chain, a 100m whale like that was last seen in January with WhiteWhale. Since then, the chain has had no liquidity for half a year.

Keep in mind, once you’re talking about big whales over 50m, it’s no longer something small retail PvPers can influence. It’s mainly driven by strong market makers and smart money—when they move in, it usually signals that liquidity is about to recover. And combined with the fact that BTC is expected to make its final dip within the next one or two months, you can be sure that this drop will be the last “diamond bottom.”

So how should we play in the future? How should we play the next cycle?

I’ve read most of what people wrote in the comments and DMs. There are a lot of new “grass” entrants. If you just buy BTC with a small amount of ten-thousand-ish dollars, you definitely can’t turn your situation around—at best, it only slightly improves your day-to-day life.

But don’t give up. On-chain is your chance to make a comeback. The on-chain gameplay is still fairly flexible, involving many different aspects, and the liquidity cycle is very fast—so you need to stay sharp and sensitive.

Last week I wrote an on-chain intro and gameplay guide, but it was taken down due to a violation. After that, I’ll keep outputting things little by little. Everything I share is based on real experience.

Can we still play in the crypto space in 2026?
Let's cut to the chase: yes, we definitely can, but it's crucial to play with a strategy.

*Here’s why:
Bitcoin is the most genuine asset out there; if you master the crypto game, you’ll gain insights into life itself, because trading goes against human instinct. Only those who can overcome their human weaknesses can achieve results in the crypto space.

Many folks hold biases against cryptocurrency, but it’s not really about crypto itself; it’s more about their general prejudice against anything that lies outside their comfort zone.

The logic of the crypto market mirrors the logic of capital markets, which is why it's often considered pure.

To illustrate this simply:

1. Tokens = Houses
Think of houses as a type of crypto (house coin).

2. Token Issuers = Real Estate Developers
Real estate developers represent the token issuers, or the devs.

3. Sales Agents = Exchanges
The real estate salespeople are the exchanges, handling property transactions (token trades) and earning their fees.

4. Retail Traders = Home Buyers
All of you reading this likely own property, right? We, the average folks, act as property traders (retail traders buying and selling house coins on exchanges).

*After this example, do you still hold biases against the crypto space?

The internet in '13, real estate in '19, now AI agents, etc., are all just Ponzi schemes dressed up in capital’s clothing. The underlying logic is the same as in crypto; it’s just that many people willingly buy into it because of the fancy packaging.

Crypto itself isn’t the problem; it's simply laid bare in front of you, exposing the ugliness of capital and the distortions of human nature without much cover-up. This often leads people to develop biases subconsciously.

The logic of capital is straightforward: accumulate, distribute.

The logic of Bitcoin (the crypto market) is also simple: accumulate, distribute.

The logic of real estate is just as simple: accumulate, distribute.

The logic of global capital markets is straightforward: accumulate, distribute.

So, why say that mastering the crypto space gives you insights into life?
$BTC

Why is Bitcoin always dropping? Is the crypto space done for?

When will people realize that the rise and fall of finance has nothing to do with these bearish retail traders? Retail traders have no consensus, their impact is minimal!

No matter how much you shout bearish, the casino will find a way to keep running; whether you're there or not, the world keeps spinning. Where there are plenty of fish, fishermen will go to catch them; where there's plenty of cash and strong liquidity, that's where we'll be trading.

This is the most fundamental logic of finance, and most people don't even grasp this basic point. If you manage to make money, it's a miracle.
$BTC

If you want to monetize your insights, you need to know a few unspoken rules.

1. You must recognize that the world operates like a game; any chance of getting rich quick is essentially the result of capital pooling, not retail investors.

Retail investors lack any consensus! Human nature dictates that even brothers will tear each other apart in the face of absolute profit, let alone retail individuals who don’t share any blood ties.

What you see in the internet, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and even AI right now, is fundamentally the result of capital accumulation. Capital injects money into these sectors, inflates their market cap, and then distributes and harvests gains, with the liquidity overflowing to the retail crowd. Even a small profit can make retail investors celebrate for a while.

2. With a thorough respect and reverence for capital, seek out the patterns of liquidity. Strive to discover it a step ahead; believe that liquidity exists here. Everything follows a normal distribution, so you don’t need to be the best; you just need to be a bit more diligent than others. If you can get ahead of the curve, you can seize more assets.

3. Learn to respect those who have gotten rich quickly. You only see others getting rich but fail to understand the reasons behind their wealth. This is the terrifying aspect of capital's operating rules; anyone who achieves results in any field and retains that wealth deserves to be seen as monetizing their insights, aligning their knowledge with wealth.

Whether these individuals are engaging in unethical practices (not advocating for gray markets!!!), it might be hard to accept their actions, but you must acknowledge that they exploit the less informed with their superior knowledge. This encompasses all areas, which is why you find absurd scams still catching people out every year; because everything follows a normal distribution, there will always be fools in the world.

This article reflects personal thoughts and should not be taken as investment advice. $BTC #Humanity遭攻击宣布百万USDT悬赏

In the crypto space, it's all about BTC and the altcoins.

BTC has top-tier whales with solid consensus, and the average holding time is measured in years.

ETH is a public chain, and during the bull run from 20-22, the capital behind ETH deployed a series of DeFi ecosystem tokens on the ETH chain, boosting ETH's market cap and facilitating a flywheel distribution. The 20-22 and 23-25 cycles showed a clear double top on the candlesticks, highlighting a classic double-cycle distribution pattern that we've seen frequently with altcoins. In the upcoming 27-29 cycle, it will definitely take a hit.

Can you still make money in the crypto space?

Let’s cut to the chase: 99% of newbies can't make a dime in crypto.

To profit in this game, you’ve got to go through a full bull and bear cycle.

If you haven’t experienced the ups and downs, you’re not going to be sensitive to market liquidity at all. These newbies need to go through a cycle to gain some hard-earned wisdom, which allows them to develop their own strategies to capitalize on the next bull run, taking assets from the new guys. It’s a vicious cycle: the veterans exploit the newbies, and the newbies can’t compete with the veterans. That’s just how the crypto game works.

The main plays in crypto are BTC and altcoins.

BTC may be stable, but the gains are slow and drawn out, which makes it unappealing to newcomers.

This brings us to a new concept: altcoins. Besides BTC, everything else is considered an altcoin. The ones we know, like ETH, SOL, and BNB, are among the biggest altcoins. Why dive into altcoins? It’s all about the high leverage; whenever liquidity spills over, you’ll find plenty of examples of single coins hitting A7 and A8.

So why can’t newbies handle altcoins well?

The core issue is their insensitivity to liquidity. Crypto liquidity flows from BTC and is phase-specific; it usually rotates among sectors. Each sector typically lasts only a couple of months. Newbies often can't catch the rhythm and are prone to FOMO, usually buying in and then getting stuck at the top.

When I entered the space in 2020, I experienced 312, DeFi summer, new chains, the zoo, 519, NFTs, and sneakers. I played through every project from 2020 to 2022, and ended up with nothing, even losing my initial capital.

After gaining some experience in the 2023-2025 cycle, I developed my own strategies. Thanks to the meme coins' grassroots appeal, I did see some results: I netted 300k from Trump, and also made a few grand on Pnut, Max, and Troll.

If there’s enough interest, I’ll write about my experiences and insights from this 2023-2025 cycle in the coming days. It’ll serve as a recap of the past few years and, most importantly, a guide on how to approach spot trading and on-chain strategies for the next round.

$BTC

The consensus expectation of the crowd won't be met, and the price will move towards the path of least resistance.
$BTC

It's February 1, 2026, and it's clear that BTC has flipped bearish.

Altcoins and on-chain liquidity are in pretty rough shape; that once-thriving scene from the past is not coming back in 2026.

Some folks might have a hard time accepting this harsh reality, but tough love is what we need. If you want to survive in this market, you gotta respect the market and ride the trend.

All we can do now is defend our capital, and we must defend our capital.

By the end of 2026, we’ll see the final bottom before the next BTC bull run kicks off. Right now, at the start of '26, you need to do everything you can to learn, backtest strategies, hit the gym, build your capital, and get ready for the next big opportunity!
$BTC

#21

CA:4vGHdzcNrDf8XVE8H19Rqea86RULz7xi89ew1sSJpump

Solana chain

Daily level accumulation, very standard second test, breakout, optimistic for higher, looking to see the upper position.

Has the bull market ended? When is it time to bottom in the bear market?
When is the cycle bottom?

Answer: The loss ratio of long-term holders is close to historical highs, that is, when this group is the most severely cut (the most uncomfortable), it is the cycle's major bottom.

Long-term holders are the smartest group in the market. This group collects chips during declines and distributes chips during rises. As long as the buying funds are sufficient, this group will not suffer significant losses.

Once the loss ratio of this group exceeds historical warning levels, do not doubt, it indicates that the buying funds are not keeping up, and the market has a problem.

Collecting chips -> Raising prices -> Distributing to buyers, the last link has a problem.

In any case, please lower expectations and focus on defense!

On December 30, a comprehensive macro analysis for this week is presented in two parts due to word limit.

Part One: "Macro Perspective"
Macro Perspective:
1. In the early part of this week, many regions were closed for the New Year's holiday; in the latter part, attention is on US PMI data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials—currently, the market lacks stimuli, so we are focused on the content of the speeches.
2. The Federal Reserve's spokesperson: is trying to assess the new government's impact on the economy and inflation. The monetary policy (interest rate cuts) for 2025 poses a relatively tight liquidity situation for the cryptocurrency sector—bearish, but the uncertainty during Trump's administration leads to a coexistence of opportunities and challenges.
3. In Goldman Sachs' 2025 outlook: AI is considered the main theme of the technology industry. The performance of tech stocks in 2024 is expected to be a bull market almost throughout the year, with a loose macro environment supporting tech stocks and AI concept stocks. Stocks like Marvell, TSMC, Nvidia, and Arista Networks have seen increases of over 75%—generative AI will continue to be the dominant theme in the technology sector. Among the 10 important themes listed by Goldman Sachs for 2025, AI themes occupy a significant portion; we should pay attention to the layout opportunities in the AI sector tokens.
4. The BTC spot ETF has recently shown an outflow state amid a lackluster performance, needing new stimulus to attract funds.

End of Part One, the second part will be updated shortly. Follow to avoid getting lost, sharing thoughts and operations every day~

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