Reasons Why Crypto Could Stage a Strong Recovery This Q4
There are several catalysts lining up that could support a meaningful recovery in the crypto market this quarter.
- $BTC and all altcoin top like ETH LINK BNB,.. is showing bullish RSI divergence against price on both the daily and weekly timeframes, a classic technical signal that often precedes trend reversals.
- The memecoin narrative is heating up again. $ANSEM has already reached a $400M market cap, while the Robinhood Chain ecosystem is experiencing an explosive memecoin boom. More importantly,
- Despite ongoing macro uncertainty, the market has refused to break down significantly. This resilience is worth paying attention to and suggests selling pressure may be weakening.
- The 2026 FIFA World Cup is only 3 days away from ending. As global attention shifts back to financial markets, capital could rotate back into crypto.
- The CLARITY Act has been passed, providing a clearer regulatory framework for crypto exchanges and digital asset businesses in the U.S. This could significantly reduce regulatory uncertainty and pave the way for greater institutional and traditional capital inflows into crypto.
- Historically, Q4 has been one of the strongest quarters for crypto performance, with seasonality often favoring risk assets.
- Listings on Coinbase Spot (quite rare), Binance Alpha (high chance it’ll only be futures), OKX Perp, etc.
The initial supply is 165M tokens. Let’s break this down in detail.
-Ecosystem (team): around 80M, possibly listing fees for exchanges => selling pressure
-S1 airdrop + Binance Wallet rewards: around 20M => almost certainly going to be sold at this point
-Kaito staking + campaign: likely to sell the rest
-Sonar: 10% unlock, then sell.
→ The team + MM hold around 140M, or about 85% of the float. Only around 25–35M tokens are likely to be sold immediately. At a $100M FDV, that’s equivalent to $2.5–3.5M, tiny compared to the daily volume on Alpha + futures listing day (usually $50–500M/day). This means airdrop sell pressure won’t determine the price. The MM and futures positions will.
Reasons the project has an incentive to hold or push the price up
Season 2 runs from 23/10, with 60M tokens (6% of supply): a higher token price means points are worth more and helps attract contributors. Since most of the SS2 airdrop is pretty crappy, I’m not expecting much from it either.
Coinbase Spot; there’s fuel available for a hedge squeeze or short squeeze.
Notable unlocks
The first major unlock is after 12 months. However, 3% unlocks every month for VCs/team (quite dangerous).
Some concerns and other information:
The project has no real revenue yet. The claims about selling data for 1M ARR and signing contracts are probably mostly hot air, so don’t expect much in the long term.
Scenarios
Lists high, then sells off gradually (like ROBO and most Alpha tokens). ROBO is also a robotics project, and it’s actually more established than this one, but its price is currently slow-rugging.
Sell first, pump later: just like most projects listed on Binance Alpha + Futures