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76000 has been moving sideways for three days. Are the 300 points above buying pressure, or a bull trap?

Current price: 75974, 24-hour change: +0.3%. Yesterday’s high was 76200 and low was 75571. Price is boxed in the 74888-76250 range.

1. First, look at the raw candlesticks

4H: Highs of 84898 → 81971 → 81196 → 76416 → 76378 → 76208 have been stepping down, and the LH resistance remains firmly in place. Lows of 75568 → 75208 → 74888 made a new low, but the last three lows—75571, 75655, and 75779—have risen. This convergence of lower highs and higher lows has no clear direction, but resistance overhead is stronger.

1H: Since the wick down to 74888, lows have been rising step by step, which is short-term bullish. But all three pushes higher—to 76208, 76249, and 76200—left long upper wicks and were knocked back. Price has failed to hold above that level each time.

2. Liquidity sweep path

The 76200-76250 area above is a set of equal highs; further up are 76378 and the round number 77000. Breakout buy orders and short stop-losses are clustered here. Below, 74888 is a set of equal lows, right beside the old September low at 74968, with the round number 75000 just above.

Assessment: It’s more likely that price first sweeps the liquidity above 76250, breaks out, then falls back below. It has failed to take out that level three times, so the liquidity pool keeps growing. If price can’t reclaim 76250, it’s headed toward 74888. First lure in the bulls, then squeeze them out.

3. Main strategy: primary short

Short bias. Initial position: 76280-76330; add: 77050; stop-loss: 77450; target: 74950; extension: 74350. Triggers: a 1H move into 76250-76380 that leaves a long upper wick and closes back below 76200; or a 1H close below 75780 followed by a failed retest of 75900. Invalidated if two 1H candles close above 76400 with solid bodies. Total position: 5%, initial position: 2%, add-on: 3%. Use low leverage.

4. Secondary strategy: secondary long

Long bias. Initial position: 75050-75100; add: 74350; stop-loss: 73950; target: 76200; extension: 76350. Triggers: a 1H move down into 74900-75000 that leaves a long lower wick and closes back above 75100; or a dip below 74888 followed by a close back above 75000. Invalidated if a 1H candle closes below 74700 with a solid body. Total position: 3%, initial position: 1%, add-on: 2%.

Current execution advice

Both ends of the range are hunting grounds; entering in the middle is like handing over your stop-loss for free. Wait for either of these two signals: a 1H push above 76250 that leaves a long upper wick and closes back below, for a short; or a 1H dip toward 75000 that leaves a long lower wick and rebounds, for a long. Stay out in the middle, don’t chase trades, use low leverage, and place stop-losses when scaling in.

These are my personal thoughts, for reference only!
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007-黑豹

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