澳門勇

Actually, everyone knows Bitcoin will definitely break 80,000, but how to trade is the key

$BTC There are two scenarios: 80,000 will definitely be broken, and once it breaks, it will definitely retest. How would you trade it?

$BTC is very interesting—anyone who can hold through an empty order isn’t just a small retail investor.

$BTC
This market move really makes it clear what people mean by “when the tide goes out, you find out who’s been swimming naked.” So many people have nothing in their heads but holding down orders—refusing to let go—insisting the bear market isn’t over yet.

I agree that the bear market hasn’t finished. But I didn’t go short. What I see is a crowd of hard-headed people who stubbornly hold their positions without considering risk at all.

More brutally, as long as this current行情 (price action) dips back up—stabbing back to the prior high—it’s enough to liquidate most of the high-multiple short positions. Then, if the trend reverses again, or if there’s a so-called “fake breakout” that just pushes straight up to 100,000, these people will be completely buried. No stop-loss, no escape route—so in the end, they can only die with no place for burial.

According to my current strategy, each trade has a fixed stop loss of 20 U. I would have to go through 26 consecutive losing trades to get this profit back.

$BTC Some personal opinions on the current market. I think this pump is purely to liquidate some high-leverage short positions, then there will be another round of distribution and selling pressure. As for the ultimate target price, I believe it’s around 30,000–40,000.

$RE Who’s doing the opposite like me?

$RE The places are great, unfortunately they got washed away

This is a 4.5R trade. My win rate is only about 40%, but because of the 3–4.5R risk-reward ratio, I still end up making money.

Some people think a small position is easy to lose and even easy to wipe out, but I actually feel a small position is easier to make money—because a negligible position simply doesn’t provide enough liquidity. If the position you open can’t provide sufficient liquidity, you’re very likely to get “hunted.” In contrast, some people think larger positions make you more cautious; however, that idea is wrong. What counts as a “large position” is inherently relative. Some people consider 1,000U big, while others think 10,000U is big. In reality, position size is just a tool, not a source of profit. The core principle of making money is always an unchanging strategy. Position size only affects psychological pressure and risk concentration. Smaller positions have lower liquidity impact, lower psychological pressure, and faster strategy validation—so they are actually safer and make it easier to maintain discipline. Larger positions, in illiquid or niche markets, can expose you to liquidity risk more easily; in popular markets, they’re just a drop in the ocean. Ultimately, what truly determines who wins is the stability of the strategy and the ability to execute it consistently and with discipline. So small positions aren’t “easy to lose”—they’re the safest way to start. Large positions don’t necessarily mean you’re more cautious either. The upgrade path should be to validate with small positions, adapt with medium positions, and build in larger positions in batches, so you can keep the strategy consistent across different stages and ensure sustainable profitability.

Most beginners enter the crypto market during the middle to late stages of a bull market. A key feature of a bull market is that even if prices fall, they often rise back again. So after a few stop-losses, beginners start to question the necessity of stop-losses. After all, in the end, prices will go back up anyway. This accumulation of flawed experience gradually erodes their risk awareness. Until a bear market arrives and the market keeps falling all the way down—then they truly understand what it means to “pay tuition.” Many people choose not to trade during the bear market, waiting for the next bull cycle. However, when the bull market returns, they repeat the same mistakes again, getting stuck in the same cycle. These are the three major traps for beginners: first, the illusion of a bull market—“it will go back up even if it drops.” Second, stop-losses failing—wrong experience builds bad habits. Third, paying tuition in a bear market—mistakes made during the low point get magnified into fatal blows. Real growth doesn’t come from waiting for market conditions; it comes from building trading discipline and risk management.

$TUT It appears to be running rampant and boosting prices through force, but in reality it’s distributing during a sideways range. The fantasy of a hundredfold coin is not something that can happen. The people trapped above, who worked hard to get caught, can never get out of their positions.

$ETH 3R profit-loss ratio, took it for many days

$TUT still couldn’t hold back and opened one empty lot, and nothing unexpected happened

$TUT I want to short around 0.5 again, but with such a strong altcoin, I think it's still better to be cautious.

$TUT a successful trade with a 3R risk-reward ratio

$TUT My small take on this coin’s little price movement: between 0.06 and 0.07 there are a lot of trapped positions; chances are it won’t give them an opportunity to get out. And if it reaches 0.05, there will be enough liquidations to keep distributing.

$$TUT This is a failed yet successful transaction. You opened the position at a perfect entry point, reached the preset take-profit target, and canceled it—then you added to the position at the wrong point. After that, you firmly cut the loss at a predetermined stop-loss level. There were a bunch of mistakes in the beginning; the most, most, most important thing is that in the end, it was successful.

The essence of every pump-and-dump scheme is to get the goods out. Whether it’s stocks or cryptocurrencies, the market maker raises the price not to let retail investors profit, but to offload the shares to the people who chase the price higher at the top. If the stock market is somewhat better, at least long-term investors and pension funds can provide a backstop; when it falls, there’s still the possibility of turning things around. But cryptocurrencies are different—once they’re dumped, there’s no backstop mechanism. If you get trapped, you’re often stuck with no chance to ever recover. Many project teams also rely on constantly launching new projects to keep harvesting. Retail investors cling to the fantasy that the next one will be better, only to become the next in line to take the bag again and again. Remember this: all pump schemes are only for distribution. Stocks may still be able to recover through time and fundamentals, but in the crypto world, it’s often a zero-sum game. If the market maker wins, you lose. The project team will always be harvesting; new stories and new coins are only new traps.

$RE Plaza is showing an overall bullish situation with everyone looking at upside; unexpectedly, it suddenly got smashed down, breaking through all the stop-loss points in the plaza. Now it’s just at a key position of a liquidity hunt.