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BITCOIN SPOT ETF FLOW UPDATE
Institutional demand remains one of the most important metrics to monitor as Bitcoin continues to search for its next major move.
After analysing today’s spot ETF data, the short-term picture shows some profit-taking, but the broader trend remains unchanged: institutions are still heavily exposed to Bitcoin and ETF demand remains one of the strongest structural forces in this market.
Daily ETF Flows
Latest trading session:
Total Net Flow:
-885.64 BTC
Approximately:
-$52.25M in net outflows
The selling was mainly driven by the largest ETF providers:
BlackRock IBIT:
-874.61 BTC
Fidelity FBTC:
-107.16 BTC
Bitwise BITB:
+96.13 BTC
The majority of today’s outflows came from IBIT, which continues to be the largest Bitcoin ETF by assets and therefore has the biggest influence on overall ETF flow data.
One day of outflows is insignificant compared with the size of the institutional positions already built.
Institutional Holdings Remain Strong
Current Bitcoin ETF holdings:
648.33K BTC
Total ETF assets:
$78.91B
Despite short-term fluctuations, US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to hold hundreds of thousands of BTC, representing one of the largest sources of institutional demand in Bitcoin’s history.
The important point:
Institutions are not exiting Bitcoin.
Daily flows will naturally move between inflows and outflows as investors rebalance, take profits, or adjust exposure.
The larger trend remains focused on accumulation.
ETF Landscape Breakdown:
The concentration of Bitcoin exposure remains heavily dominated by the largest issuers.
BlackRock IBIT:
746.89K BTC
Fidelity FBTC:
172.07K BTC
Grayscale GBTC:
131.25K BTC
The biggest trend since ETF approval has been the shift away from older, higher-fee products into newer spot ETFs.
Capital has increasingly moved towards providers such as BlackRock and Fidelity, showing that institutional demand has not disappeared — it has simply become more efficient.
What The Data Is Telling Us:
The most interesting part of the current ETF picture is the relationship between flows and price.
Bitcoin has remained relatively range-bound while ETF holdings have continued to stay elevated.
This suggests:
Institutions are not aggressively chasing price higher right now.
But they also are not abandoning their positions.
The market is currently waiting for a catalyst strong enough to bring fresh demand back into the spot market.
What We Are Watching Next:
For Bitcoin to confirm the next major upside move, we want to see:
• Consistent daily ETF inflows returning
• Stronger spot demand alongside price appreciation
• Leverage cooling while institutional accumulation increases
The strongest bullish setup would be:
ETF inflows accelerating + open interest resetting + funding rates normalising.
That combination would show genuine demand entering the market rather than another leverage-driven move.
Chart House Research Conclusion:
Today’s ETF data shows short-term caution, not a change in the broader institutional trend.
The overall picture remains:
Bitcoin continues to have a significant institutional bid underneath the market.
However, after recent volatility, investors appear to be waiting for confirmation before adding aggressively.
The next key signal will be whether ETF flows return to positive territory while leverage continues to reset.
That would provide the strongest indication that institutions are positioning for the next major Bitcoin expansion.

BITCOIN MARKET VOLUME UPDATE
Price is attempting a localised recovery towards $63,550, but buying volume is rapidly dropping off on shorter timeframes.
This move is driven by passive order fills and short-covering rather than aggressive institutional bidding, leaving the rally fragile.
KEY METRICS:
• Current BTC Price: $63,546 (+0.31% 4H | +0.78% 24H)
• 24H Taker Buy Dominance: Futures 52.56% | Spot 50.71%
• Derivatives Volume Share: 93.83% ($1.19T)
• Physical Spot Share: 6.17% ($78.22B)
VOLUME BREAKDOWN:
Over the last 24 hours:
• Futures Volume: $27.49B (+42.02%)
• Spot Volume: $1.56B (+123.41%)
Over the last 4 hours:
• Futures Volume: $5.76B (-17.68% / -$1.02B)
• Spot Volume: $411.74M (-9.79% / -$40.31M)
vs 30-Day Baselines:
• Futures Ratio vs 30D Avg: 0.6027 (~40% below average)
• Spot Ratio vs 30D Avg: 0.5969 (~40% below average)
WHAT THE DATA IS TELLING US:
Buying Interest Is Fading Fast
While 24-hour totals look high (+42.02% futures, +123.41% spot), shorter timeframes show buyers are running out of energy:
• Over the last 4 hours, price edged up slightly by +0.31% (+$196.38) to $63,546.
• Over the exact same 4 hours, futures trading volume dropped -17.68% and spot buying fell -9.79%.
• Total market activity is still roughly 40% lower than normal monthly levels.
Driven by Gambling Leverage, Not Real Demand
Speculative derivative bets account for 93.83% ($1.19T) of 30-day trading volume, compared to just 6.17% ($78.22B) in actual spot buying. Price bounces that do not have real spot buyers behind them are weak and prone to quick pullbacks.
Big Investors Are Selling While Retail Buys
There is a clear split in where capital is moving over the last 24 hours:
• Offshore Retail Buying: Binance (+$10.09M) and OKX (+$11.29M) saw net spot buying.
• US & Institutional Selling: Bitfinex (-$18.81M), Kraken (-$1.92M), and Coinbase saw net selling.
Without big US institutional platforms like Coinbase leading the buying, price lacks strong support to keep climbing higher.
Short Sellers Are Closing Bets, Not New Buyers Stepping In
Short-term buyers lead slightly (52.56% futures / 50.71% spot). However, active positions across major futures exchanges are actually shrinking:
• Binance: -0.28%
• OKX: -1.45%
• Bybit: -6.30%
• Bitunix: -22.90%
This confirms price is moving up mostly because short sellers are closing out their trades to take profits or cut losses, not because new long-term buyers are entering the market.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PRICE ACTION
Bitcoin is stuck in a delicate holding pattern around $63,500.
Because trading volume is dropping as price edges up, and big institutional venues are selling into this bounce, pushing past $63,800–$64,000 will be difficult unless real spot buyers step in with size.
KEY SCENARIOS:
• Bullish Scenario: A clean move above $64,200 backed by rising spot volume and net buying on Coinbase/Kraken would show real demand, opening the path towards $65,500.
• Bearish Scenario: Failure to clear resistance near $63,800–$64,000 followed by a drop below $62,500 would confirm sellers are back in control, targeting lower support at $61,800.
CHR TAKEAWAY:
Overall market activity remains quiet. Low-volume bounces in a leverage-heavy market favour cautious risk management.
As noted in our earlier post, the Bitcoin futures market looks increasingly crowded, which could trigger significant market pain today.
We will follow up shortly with a detailed Open Interest Update to break down current market leverage, positioning risks, and key liquidation levels.

Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap Update
Bitcoin is moving back towards the largest nearby liquidation cluster after spending most of the session consolidating around $63K–$63.5K.
Across the 12H, 24H and 3D heatmaps, the same key zones continue to stand out.
The liquidity structure is becoming increasingly concentrated around the current range.
$63.8K–$64K: Immediate upside liquidity
The strongest nearby liquidity sits just above spot, around $63.8K–$64K.
This zone has strengthened across the shorter-term heatmaps as BTC has pushed higher.
That makes it the first major area to watch.
If BTC moves into this region, the concentration of liquidation liquidity could accelerate the move as positions are forced to close.
A clean sweep through the cluster would put the next upside liquidity around $65K–$65.5K into focus.
$62.2K–$62.6K: Key downside liquidity
There is also a significant concentration of liquidity immediately below the market.
The $62.2K–$62.6K region remains clearly visible across the 12H, 24H and 3D maps.
This is important because BTC has repeatedly consolidated above this area.
A move into the zone could therefore trigger a meaningful flush of leveraged longs.
If that liquidity is swept and BTC quickly reclaims the area, it would create a potentially strong setup for a reversal back towards the upside liquidity.
If BTC loses it decisively, the next major liquidity pocket sits closer to $60.5K–$61K.
The larger 3D picture
The 3D heatmap gives us the clearest view of the broader positioning.
There is substantial liquidity stacked on both sides of the current price rather than one overwhelmingly dominant pocket.
Above:
$63.8K–$64K
$65K–$65.5K
$66K+
Below:
$62.2K–$62.6K
$60.5K–$61K
This creates a relatively defined liquidity range.
The market does not need to break out immediately.
It can continue moving between these pools while leverage gets repositioned.
What we are watching
The most important question is which liquidity pocket gets taken first.
A push into $63.8K–$64K would test the overhead liquidation cluster and could produce a squeeze higher if BTC moves through it with momentum.
A rejection followed by a move below $63K would shift attention towards the $62.2K–$62.6K long-liquidation pocket.
That would be the key downside test.
The important distinction is that a liquidation cluster is a zone of potential forced positioning, not a guaranteed price target.
We are watching how BTC reacts when those levels are reached.
CHR TAKEAWAY
The heatmaps are giving us a very clean setup.
BTC is sitting between two major liquidity pools:
$63.8K–$64K above
$62.2K–$62.6K below
The nearest liquidity sits on both sides, meaning volatility could increase quickly once BTC starts moving away from the current consolidation.
For now, the bias is not about predicting which side gets taken.
It is about waiting for the liquidity sweep and then watching the reaction.
Reclaim after a sweep = strength.
Breakdown after a sweep = continuation risk.
Until then, BTC remains trapped between two major pools of leveraged positioning.

Bitcoin 4H Market Structure Update
Bitcoin is continuing to consolidate around the $63,000 level after failing to reclaim the $64,000 area.
The 4H structure remains range-bound, with BTC currently sitting near the lower end of the recent range.
The key levels are becoming increasingly clear.
$63K remains the immediate floor
BTC has repeatedly defended the $63,000 region over the last several sessions.
Price has tested this area multiple times without a sustained breakdown, showing that buyers are still defending the current range floor.
As long as $63K holds on a 4H closing basis, the broader range remains intact.
A decisive loss of $63K would change that picture and put the $61K support zone back into focus.
$64K is the level bulls need back
$64,000 is now the most important level above the current price.
BTC previously traded above this area, but after losing it, every recovery has struggled to establish a sustained reclaim.
That makes $64K more than just resistance.
It is the immediate market-structure level that needs to flip back into support.
A clean reclaim and hold above $64K would be the first meaningful sign that buyers are regaining control.
Above $64K
If BTC can reclaim $64K, the next areas to watch are:
$65,000
$65,700
$67,200
$65.7K remains a particularly important resistance zone, while $67.2K is the major resistance at the top of the current structure.
A break above $65.7K would materially improve the 4H setup and increase the probability of another attempt at $67.2K.
Below $63K
The opposite scenario is equally important.
A clean 4H breakdown below $63K would weaken the current consolidation and expose the lower part of the range.
The next major support is around $61,000.
That level has previously acted as a significant lower-range floor, so a move towards it would represent a meaningful deterioration from the current structure.
TAKEAWAY
Bitcoin is currently stuck between confirmation levels.
$63K is the floor.
$64K is the reclaim.
$65.7K is the major resistance.
$67.2K is the larger breakout level.
For now, there is no reason to chase the middle of the range.
We want to see confirmation.
A sustained reclaim of $64K would start shifting the structure back in favour of the bulls.
A break above $65.7K would strengthen that considerably.
A loss of $63K would instead open the door towards $61K.
Until one of those levels breaks, Bitcoin remains in consolidation.
The next move matters more than the current noise.

Bitcoin funding remains positive, but the market is not showing signs of excessive long positioning.
BTC’s current OI-weighted funding rate is 0.0041%, while the volume-weighted funding rate is higher at 0.0070%.
Both are positive.
That means longs are currently paying shorts to maintain perpetual positions, indicating a modest long bias across the derivatives market.
What stands out
The funding signal is remarkably consistent across the major exchanges.
Current BTC funding:
• Binance: 0.0029%
• OKX: 0.0069%
• Bybit: 0.0029%
• KuCoin: 0.0040%
• MEXC: 0.0028%
• BingX: 0.0067%
• Gate: 0.0027%
• Bitunix: 0.0031%
• Bitget: 0.0054%
• WhiteBIT: 0.0100%
• LBank: 0.0029%
The majority of major venues are therefore showing positive funding at the same time.
This is important because it suggests the current bias is broad-based rather than being driven by one isolated exchange.
Funding is positive, but not overheated
Positive funding by itself is not bearish.
It simply tells us that longs are currently paying shorts.
The level matters.
At 0.0041% OI-weighted funding, BTC is showing a mild positive carry rather than an extreme long imbalance.
That is very different from the kind of aggressive funding environment that can develop when traders become heavily leveraged and longs are paying increasingly large premiums to stay in positions.
We are not seeing that here.
The OI + funding combination matters more
This becomes more interesting when we combine today's funding data with the open-interest update.
BTC open interest was recently sitting around $47.46B, with OI down 1.14% over 24 hours.
So we currently have:
Positive funding
+
Falling open interest
+
BTC around $63K
That tells us the market still has a slight long bias, but traders are not aggressively adding leverage.
Instead, some positioning is being removed while the remaining derivatives market continues to lean slightly long.
That is a much healthier setup than positive funding combined with rapidly expanding OI.
What we are watching
The next move in funding will be important.
If BTC reclaims $64K and funding rises alongside expanding OI, that would show traders are becoming more confident and adding fresh long exposure.
If BTC remains below $64K while funding stays positive and OI continues falling, it would suggest the market is gradually de-risking rather than preparing for a strong leveraged breakout.
And if funding suddenly pushes sharply higher while OI expands, that is where we would start paying much closer attention to potential long overcrowding.
CHR TAKEAWAY
The derivatives market is currently mildly long-biased, but it is not showing signs of extreme leverage.
Funding is positive across the major BTC venues, yet open interest is declining.
That distinction matters.
For now, the data points towards controlled positioning rather than an overheated long market.
The key confirmation remains price.
$64K reclaim + rising OI + controlled funding would strengthen the bullish case.
Continued rejection below $64K + falling OI would indicate that leverage is still being removed.
Funding is telling us which side is paying.
Open interest is telling us how much leverage is actually being deployed.
Right now, both are pointing to a market that is cautious rather than crowded.

BITCOIN OPEN INTEREST UPDATE
Bitcoin’s derivatives market is continuing to deleverage.
Total BTC open interest currently sits at 753.73K BTC, equivalent to approximately $47.46B across tracked exchanges.
OI is down:
• 0.21% over 1H
• 0.92% over 4H
• 1.14% over 24H
At the same time, Bitcoin is trading around $63K.
WHAT THIS TELLS US
The important point is that leverage is coming out of the market while price remains relatively stable.
This is not the same setup as a market where OI is aggressively expanding alongside price.
Instead, traders are gradually reducing exposure.
That can be constructive from a positioning perspective because excessive leverage is being flushed out, reducing the amount of forced positioning sitting in the market.
However, it also tells us that conviction has not yet returned.
BTC is still struggling below the $64K area, so the market has not provided the price confirmation needed for aggressive leverage to rebuild.
EXCHANGE BREAKDOWN
Binance remains the largest contributor with:
151.80K BTC OI
$9.56B notional
20.13% of total OI
CME follows with:
114.02K BTC
$7.18B notional
15.12% of total OI
Bybit currently holds 76.05K BTC, while Gate and MEXC account for another 67.96K and 59.74K BTC respectively.
The distribution remains heavily concentrated across the major derivatives venues.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
The longer-term chart shows how far leverage has already contracted from the much higher OI levels seen during previous periods of elevated market activity.
With total OI now around $47.5B, the derivatives market is considerably less crowded than it was at its previous extremes.
That matters.
If BTC eventually reclaims $64K and begins moving higher while OI starts expanding again, that would suggest traders are returning with fresh exposure and would give the move greater significance.
If price continues struggling around $63K while OI keeps falling, it would instead indicate continued deleveraging and a market still lacking conviction.
CHR TAKEAWAY
Bitcoin is not currently showing an aggressive leverage build.
It is showing the opposite.
OI is declining while BTC consolidates around $63K, meaning some of the speculative positioning is being removed from the market.
For now, that leaves us watching two things closely:
$64K reclaim + OI expansion = stronger confirmation
$63K loss + continued OI contraction = further deleveraging risk
The next meaningful signal will come from how open interest responds when Bitcoin finally makes its next decisive move.
OI data is useful for understanding positioning, but it does not tell us direction on its own. The price response is what ultimately matters.