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🇨🇳🇭🇰🇸🇬 #Crypto 丨运营市场出身丨知行合一丨唯快不破丨 分析大盘走势和一些短线小机会，不是投资建议，你赚钱不用分给我，亏钱了也别找我。 没有 群。有事儿私信问
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With Trump's visit to China getting closer, it feels like we might see a long-term pivot. There's a high probability that we'll start to see some choppy downward action around mid to late May.
As expected, this spot has kicked off first. Feels like there's still more upside. My prediction is that BTC could hit 84k, and ETH might reach 2500.
From the 1-hour chart, the trend of $BTC has entered a downward oscillation after two failed attempts to break 80.5k. Similarly, $ETH also began to oscillate downwards after failing to push past 2300;
The determined bulls keep adjusting the rebound position lower and are starting to doubt their judgment—can we still pump it back up? As prices continue to drop, the long positions betting on a rebound are being abandoned one by one, and the bulls are beginning to question their life choices.
However, if you look at the 6-hour chart, you'll see that the retracement strength of $BTC from 4.27 to 4.30 was -5.84%; the retracement from 4.17 to 4.20 was -5.83%. If we assume a drop of -5.84% from 82820, the price would be around 78k;
Similarly, for #ETH 4.27 to 4.30, the retracement strength was -7.6%; from 4.17 to 4.20, the retracement was -8.6%. If we start the retracement from 2422 at -7.6%, it lands at 2238, while an -8.6% retracement would be at 2215;
The calculations above imply that during the oscillating uptrend since the end of April, there have been deeper pullbacks than the current ones, as well as recoveries following those pullbacks; in other words, we would need to drop below the prices calculated above to consider it a historical breakout.
The bulls, who are now doubting their choices, are just the ones who jumped the gun on the aggressive uptrend and FOMO emotions. Those who got shaken out with a drop of -6% to -8% were likely part of this group.
In conclusion, I still believe this is just a pullback, and there are still opportunities. But those blindly trying to catch the falling knife by going long may face severe consequences.
#Tom Lee谈BitMine放缓ETH买入
The determined bulls keep adjusting the rebound position lower and are starting to doubt their judgment—can we still pump it back up? As prices continue to drop, the long positions betting on a rebound are being abandoned one by one, and the bulls are beginning to question their life choices.
However, if you look at the 6-hour chart, you'll see that the retracement strength of $BTC from 4.27 to 4.30 was -5.84%; the retracement from 4.17 to 4.20 was -5.83%. If we assume a drop of -5.84% from 82820, the price would be around 78k;
Similarly, for #ETH 4.27 to 4.30, the retracement strength was -7.6%; from 4.17 to 4.20, the retracement was -8.6%. If we start the retracement from 2422 at -7.6%, it lands at 2238, while an -8.6% retracement would be at 2215;
The calculations above imply that during the oscillating uptrend since the end of April, there have been deeper pullbacks than the current ones, as well as recoveries following those pullbacks; in other words, we would need to drop below the prices calculated above to consider it a historical breakout.
The bulls, who are now doubting their choices, are just the ones who jumped the gun on the aggressive uptrend and FOMO emotions. Those who got shaken out with a drop of -6% to -8% were likely part of this group.
In conclusion, I still believe this is just a pullback, and there are still opportunities. But those blindly trying to catch the falling knife by going long may face severe consequences.
#Tom Lee谈BitMine放缓ETH买入
From the 1-hour chart, the trend of $BTC has entered a downward oscillation after two failed attempts to break 80.5k. Similarly, $ETH also began to oscillate downwards after failing to push past 2300;
The determined bulls keep adjusting the rebound position lower and are starting to doubt their judgment—can we still pump it back up? As prices continue to drop, the long positions betting on a rebound are being abandoned one by one, and the bulls are beginning to question their life choices.
However, if you look at the 6-hour chart, you'll see that the retracement strength of $BTC from 4.27 to 4.30 was -5.84%; the retracement from 4.17 to 4.20 was -5.83%. If we assume a drop of -5.84% from 82820, the price would be around 78k;
Similarly, for #ETH 4.27 to 4.30, the retracement strength was -7.6%; from 4.17 to 4.20, the retracement was -8.6%. If we start the retracement from 2422 at -7.6%, it lands at 2238, while an -8.6% retracement would be at 2215;
The calculations above imply that during the oscillating uptrend since the end of April, there have been deeper pullbacks than the current ones, as well as recoveries following those pullbacks; in other words, we would need to drop below the prices calculated above to consider it a historical breakout.
The bulls, who are now doubting their choices, are just the ones who jumped the gun on the aggressive uptrend and FOMO emotions. Those who got shaken out with a drop of -6% to -8% were likely part of this group.
In conclusion, I still believe this is just a pullback, and there are still opportunities. But those blindly trying to catch the falling knife by going long may face severe consequences.
#Tom Lee谈BitMine放缓ETH买入
The determined bulls keep adjusting the rebound position lower and are starting to doubt their judgment—can we still pump it back up? As prices continue to drop, the long positions betting on a rebound are being abandoned one by one, and the bulls are beginning to question their life choices.
However, if you look at the 6-hour chart, you'll see that the retracement strength of $BTC from 4.27 to 4.30 was -5.84%; the retracement from 4.17 to 4.20 was -5.83%. If we assume a drop of -5.84% from 82820, the price would be around 78k;
Similarly, for #ETH 4.27 to 4.30, the retracement strength was -7.6%; from 4.17 to 4.20, the retracement was -8.6%. If we start the retracement from 2422 at -7.6%, it lands at 2238, while an -8.6% retracement would be at 2215;
The calculations above imply that during the oscillating uptrend since the end of April, there have been deeper pullbacks than the current ones, as well as recoveries following those pullbacks; in other words, we would need to drop below the prices calculated above to consider it a historical breakout.
The bulls, who are now doubting their choices, are just the ones who jumped the gun on the aggressive uptrend and FOMO emotions. Those who got shaken out with a drop of -6% to -8% were likely part of this group.
In conclusion, I still believe this is just a pullback, and there are still opportunities. But those blindly trying to catch the falling knife by going long may face severe consequences.
#Tom Lee谈BitMine放缓ETH买入
I always get the feeling that we've hit the peak for the first half of the year on this chart, and it might just drop all the way until after June...
Currently, $BTC and $ETH are both in a high-level consolidation structure. For short-term trades, we can implement a small strategy of shorting at highs and longing at lows. On the long-term outlook, I still lean slightly bullish. After all, with such a big consolidation, it would be a shame not to push it up to 80k. Pushing it to 80k will also allow the bulls to keep buying in.
$ETH has reached the support level around 2300, and we might see a small bounce here.
However, it feels like ETH is moving in tandem with $BTC , so the sentiment will likely depend on whether BTC shows any signs of continuing its upward push. If BTC leads ETH in a rally, then ETH might catch up and see some bullish momentum.
However, it feels like ETH is moving in tandem with $BTC , so the sentiment will likely depend on whether BTC shows any signs of continuing its upward push. If BTC leads ETH in a rally, then ETH might catch up and see some bullish momentum.
Is the weekend a carnival of Memes? All the liquidity has flowed into Memes. Brothers, let's get started! $HIGH $我踏马来了 $Binance life
Telegram iOS version has directly added Chinese in the language options?! This has been there for a long time, or is it the latest update?#
Trump will promote negotiations with Iran on Thursday, the current gap in conditions is quite large, but Iran is requesting a change of negotiator, signaling a desire for a long-term relationship. The negotiations on Thursday may initially create an optimistic expectation of "nearly reaching an agreement," and Trump may announce "a signing is imminent" to boost market sentiment, but Iran may subsequently deny this, leading to a reversal.
Meanwhile, Israel is likely to take action in response to the situation, and the conflict in the Middle East is expected to escalate in the short term. The United States has deployed Marine Corps, and Trump may take limited military action (such as a conflict in the Strait or symbolic strikes) after the close of the U.S. stock market on Friday to demonstrate a tough stance and provide an explanation domestically.
Overall, it is more likely to be a "limited conflict + political performance," with military actions controlled to end within a short time. The United States will then declare victory and push for an agreement, while also pressuring Israel. Iran will also claim domestic success in resisting, stabilizing the internal situation.
If progress goes smoothly, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to stabilize in the short term, and the regional situation may ease in phases, allowing Iran some room for development.
#国际油价下跌 #特朗普称对伊战争已胜利 #特朗普缓和局势 #美国暂缓攻击伊朗发电站
Meanwhile, Israel is likely to take action in response to the situation, and the conflict in the Middle East is expected to escalate in the short term. The United States has deployed Marine Corps, and Trump may take limited military action (such as a conflict in the Strait or symbolic strikes) after the close of the U.S. stock market on Friday to demonstrate a tough stance and provide an explanation domestically.
Overall, it is more likely to be a "limited conflict + political performance," with military actions controlled to end within a short time. The United States will then declare victory and push for an agreement, while also pressuring Israel. Iran will also claim domestic success in resisting, stabilizing the internal situation.
If progress goes smoothly, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to stabilize in the short term, and the regional situation may ease in phases, allowing Iran some room for development.
#国际油价下跌 #特朗普称对伊战争已胜利 #特朗普缓和局势 #美国暂缓攻击伊朗发电站
🚨
The Bitcoin 70K life-and-death battle! Fear & Greed has plummeted to 23——extreme fear has arrived! $BTC Current price is about $70,000, a drop of over 5% in 2 days from a high of 76k!
Yesterday, the net outflow from the US ETF was 163 million dollars (partially reduced by BlackRock), but MicroStrategy is still crazily increasing its holdings! Short-term FUD? Leverage liquidations + profit-taking. But this is exactly the main force washing the market! Below MA200 is the accumulation zone for smart money, weak hands are exiting, and chips are concentrating towards long-term holders! Long-term view: the super bull market is far from over, and the $400,000 target has become a consensus! The promotion of the crypto bill in April is imminent, and institutional adoption is accelerating
🚀
Is it time to HODL or increase positions? A pullback is a golden pit! What is your holding strategy? Share in the comments
👇
Like + Forward + Collect + Open notifications, let’s eat meat together!
📈🔥
#比特币 #BTC行情 #加密货币 #Crypto
The Bitcoin 70K life-and-death battle! Fear & Greed has plummeted to 23——extreme fear has arrived! $BTC Current price is about $70,000, a drop of over 5% in 2 days from a high of 76k!
Yesterday, the net outflow from the US ETF was 163 million dollars (partially reduced by BlackRock), but MicroStrategy is still crazily increasing its holdings! Short-term FUD? Leverage liquidations + profit-taking. But this is exactly the main force washing the market! Below MA200 is the accumulation zone for smart money, weak hands are exiting, and chips are concentrating towards long-term holders! Long-term view: the super bull market is far from over, and the $400,000 target has become a consensus! The promotion of the crypto bill in April is imminent, and institutional adoption is accelerating
🚀
Is it time to HODL or increase positions? A pullback is a golden pit! What is your holding strategy? Share in the comments
👇
Like + Forward + Collect + Open notifications, let’s eat meat together!
📈🔥
#比特币 #BTC行情 #加密货币 #Crypto
🚨 $BTC 70K is here! Will a sharp decline begin after the FOMC? High-profile influencers on X are all shouting “the last shakeout of the bear market” + “40K is the bottom”, are you ready? 🔥
In the past 48 hours, a comprehensive breakdown of the crypto market + my in-depth analysis (insights + predictions):
1️⃣ Current Market Situation:
BTC current price ≈ $71,000, down over 4% in 24h! After touching 76K, it plummeted. ETH is oscillating in sync. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting + hot PPI + Powell's speech, exchanges continue to dump, and market panic is at an all-time high.
2️⃣ Live updates on top posts from X (sorted by popularity, 2000+ likes):
- Analyst throws out the 2022 cycle candlestick chart: the current trend is strikingly similar, the last wave of shakeout might bring it to 40K-45K before it truly bottoms out!
- Warning posts flooding in: “Platforms like Binance are wildly dumping BTC, a huge sell-off is imminent, don’t chase long positions!”
- The most brutal psychological post: “Most people are not ready for a real bear market, what about you?” (interaction from tens of thousands)
- But the bulls push back: SEC + CFTC new guidelines (most crypto = digital commodities, not securities) + market structure bill + Trump mining companies buying BTC, with clear regulations, trillions in funds will flood in, the bottom is in sight!
3️⃣ My judgment (high certainty):
Short-term (1-4 weeks): High probability of testing support at 65K-68K again, leverage players beware of liquidation, this false breakout is too obvious.
Medium-term: This is definitely the last shakeout of this bull market! All signs point to the end of the bear market.
Long-term super bullish: historical cycles + institutional entry + regulatory tailwinds, the next wave's target far exceeds expectations (2026-2027 will truly take off)!
Operational advice (survival version):
✅ HODLer: Hold on tightly + keep cash, family support is crucial (the bear market is the most torturous).
✅ Traders: Reduce positions at high levels, gradually build positions at low levels, keep an eye on ETF net inflows + upcoming macro data.
❌ Don’t go all in on altcoins/memes, the main players only play BTC/ETH!
Most people will only see their funds shrink by 80% in this volatility before waiting for the true bottom…
Are you one of the 10% that holds on? 😤
🔥 Comment section battle: Where do you think the BTC bottom is? 40K or has it already bottomed?
Like + share + follow me, I update the first-hand market situation + alpha every day, and occasionally give out benefits!
#比特币 #BTC行情 #加密货币 #fomc #监管利好
In the past 48 hours, a comprehensive breakdown of the crypto market + my in-depth analysis (insights + predictions):
1️⃣ Current Market Situation:
BTC current price ≈ $71,000, down over 4% in 24h! After touching 76K, it plummeted. ETH is oscillating in sync. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting + hot PPI + Powell's speech, exchanges continue to dump, and market panic is at an all-time high.
2️⃣ Live updates on top posts from X (sorted by popularity, 2000+ likes):
- Analyst throws out the 2022 cycle candlestick chart: the current trend is strikingly similar, the last wave of shakeout might bring it to 40K-45K before it truly bottoms out!
- Warning posts flooding in: “Platforms like Binance are wildly dumping BTC, a huge sell-off is imminent, don’t chase long positions!”
- The most brutal psychological post: “Most people are not ready for a real bear market, what about you?” (interaction from tens of thousands)
- But the bulls push back: SEC + CFTC new guidelines (most crypto = digital commodities, not securities) + market structure bill + Trump mining companies buying BTC, with clear regulations, trillions in funds will flood in, the bottom is in sight!
3️⃣ My judgment (high certainty):
Short-term (1-4 weeks): High probability of testing support at 65K-68K again, leverage players beware of liquidation, this false breakout is too obvious.
Medium-term: This is definitely the last shakeout of this bull market! All signs point to the end of the bear market.
Long-term super bullish: historical cycles + institutional entry + regulatory tailwinds, the next wave's target far exceeds expectations (2026-2027 will truly take off)!
Operational advice (survival version):
✅ HODLer: Hold on tightly + keep cash, family support is crucial (the bear market is the most torturous).
✅ Traders: Reduce positions at high levels, gradually build positions at low levels, keep an eye on ETF net inflows + upcoming macro data.
❌ Don’t go all in on altcoins/memes, the main players only play BTC/ETH!
Most people will only see their funds shrink by 80% in this volatility before waiting for the true bottom…
Are you one of the 10% that holds on? 😤
🔥 Comment section battle: Where do you think the BTC bottom is? 40K or has it already bottomed?
Like + share + follow me, I update the first-hand market situation + alpha every day, and occasionally give out benefits!
#比特币 #BTC行情 #加密货币 #fomc #监管利好
Is it important to start entering a downward state?
The bottoming rebound status that started on Sunday has been confirmed. $BTC rose from 66000 to 70000, $ETH rose from 1920 to 2050;
Basically, it has reached a point where a decision must be made. The bears believe this is a trap before a sharp decline, while the bulls think the horn of upward movement has already sounded. So do you think it's time to take off or is it a prelude to a sharp decline?
Basically, it has reached a point where a decision must be made. The bears believe this is a trap before a sharp decline, while the bulls think the horn of upward movement has already sounded. So do you think it's time to take off or is it a prelude to a sharp decline?
肯定要暴涨，冲多！
40%
一定是诱多，空他！
53%
我不知道
7%
1041 votes • Voting closed
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