飞 凡
High-Frequency Trader
5.4 Years
链接本人关注推特X @feifan7686，加密投研，二级密码埋伏，热点追踪，赛道叙事分析，宏观，kaito ICT。
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See original
Let's review this sharp decline briefly.
The core divergence in the current market is whether this round of impact is the beginning of a bear market or a deep cleansing during a bull market.
The chain of events is very clear.
After $BTC hit an all-time high of $126k on October 5-6,
market sentiment was extremely exuberant, and leverage levels had accumulated to historical highs.
At this time, the U.S. policy upgrade on tariffs and software export restrictions against China constituted a typical exogenous shock, instantly reversing the pricing logic of global risk assets.
The macroeconomic headwinds from President Trump directly pierced through the leverage bubble within the crypto market. According to multiple data sources cross-validated, the liquidation scale of long positions reached nearly $19 billion, marking one of the most extreme single-day deleveraging events on record.
The market narrative switched from a celebration of new highs to a liquidity crunch in a matter of hours, causing the price of $BTC to retract nearly 18% from its peak within days, making this the second high-level cliff pattern we have experienced this year.
Will we enter a deep bear market?
I believe the market is likely to enter a high-level oscillation digestion period lasting 4 to 8 weeks, and during this time, there is a small probability of evolving into a deep bear market.
The main reason is that this policy shock has not yet escalated into direct financial sanctions; rather, it has triggered a repricing of risk premiums, and with the backdrop of ETF capital inflows not being completely destroyed, the market has sufficient time to repair the damaged risk appetite. $BTC is likely to oscillate repeatedly within the $100k–$120k range, consuming time to cleanse high leverage and uncertain holders.
These two months are also a critical stage for whether the market will turn into a structural bear market. The primary task is definitely survival. In the current crypto market context driven by ETF spot, traders can completely exchange time for certainty, waiting for clear right-side signals to appear before reconsidering active buying and increasing positions.
$PUMP
#美国加征关税
$ASTER
$CFX
The core divergence in the current market is whether this round of impact is the beginning of a bear market or a deep cleansing during a bull market.
The chain of events is very clear.
After $BTC hit an all-time high of $126k on October 5-6,
market sentiment was extremely exuberant, and leverage levels had accumulated to historical highs.
At this time, the U.S. policy upgrade on tariffs and software export restrictions against China constituted a typical exogenous shock, instantly reversing the pricing logic of global risk assets.
The macroeconomic headwinds from President Trump directly pierced through the leverage bubble within the crypto market. According to multiple data sources cross-validated, the liquidation scale of long positions reached nearly $19 billion, marking one of the most extreme single-day deleveraging events on record.
The market narrative switched from a celebration of new highs to a liquidity crunch in a matter of hours, causing the price of $BTC to retract nearly 18% from its peak within days, making this the second high-level cliff pattern we have experienced this year.
Will we enter a deep bear market?
I believe the market is likely to enter a high-level oscillation digestion period lasting 4 to 8 weeks, and during this time, there is a small probability of evolving into a deep bear market.
The main reason is that this policy shock has not yet escalated into direct financial sanctions; rather, it has triggered a repricing of risk premiums, and with the backdrop of ETF capital inflows not being completely destroyed, the market has sufficient time to repair the damaged risk appetite. $BTC is likely to oscillate repeatedly within the $100k–$120k range, consuming time to cleanse high leverage and uncertain holders.
These two months are also a critical stage for whether the market will turn into a structural bear market. The primary task is definitely survival. In the current crypto market context driven by ETF spot, traders can completely exchange time for certainty, waiting for clear right-side signals to appear before reconsidering active buying and increasing positions.
$PUMP
#美国加征关税
$ASTER
$CFX
See original
Still very accurate, in the short term after the interest rate cuts in 2025,
whether hawkish or dovish, the market is quickly rebounding.
#美联储降息
whether hawkish or dovish, the market is quickly rebounding.
#美联储降息
飞 凡
--
The most important macro event of this year is approaching, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (December 9-10),
Although the outcome has already been revealed, the real market game has just begun.
The market now generally expects a 25bp cut, but in fact, this outcome itself is already difficult to price in.
How this interest rate meeting will determine the trend of risk assets will definitely depend on the degree of internal divisions and expectations for next year's direction.
The internal divisions this time may be more intense than imagined, and the opposition's forced compromise does not equal a unanimous rate cut, at least from my perspective, there will definitely be a significant number of votes against the rate cut. The opposition affects market sentiment, and cryptocurrencies rely on emotional liquidity; a disunited rate cut is not necessarily a positive for the crypto space.
Powell is highly likely to implement this 25bp cut, but he certainly does not dare to appear too relaxed in front of the public. He must use more severe language to manage future rate cut expectations, or clearly tell the market that there will be no autopilot mode for rate cuts in the future, and the entire meeting will be packaged as an extremely cautious risk management action.
A rate cut is dovish, but the not-so-obvious dovishness leads to a volatile market for crypto. The risk market hopes to see a certain new cycle, but the Federal Reserve and Powell are actually exacerbating future uncertainties while treating each meeting and dot plot release as a one-time action,
resulting in a high probability that each rate cut (including next year) will lead to a market trend that initially rises due to positive expectations, followed by volatile retraction.
If you have enough experience, you can tentatively short $BTC or $ETH in the few hours after the rate cut.
#比特币VS代币化黄金
Although the outcome has already been revealed, the real market game has just begun.
The market now generally expects a 25bp cut, but in fact, this outcome itself is already difficult to price in.
How this interest rate meeting will determine the trend of risk assets will definitely depend on the degree of internal divisions and expectations for next year's direction.
The internal divisions this time may be more intense than imagined, and the opposition's forced compromise does not equal a unanimous rate cut, at least from my perspective, there will definitely be a significant number of votes against the rate cut. The opposition affects market sentiment, and cryptocurrencies rely on emotional liquidity; a disunited rate cut is not necessarily a positive for the crypto space.
Powell is highly likely to implement this 25bp cut, but he certainly does not dare to appear too relaxed in front of the public. He must use more severe language to manage future rate cut expectations, or clearly tell the market that there will be no autopilot mode for rate cuts in the future, and the entire meeting will be packaged as an extremely cautious risk management action.
A rate cut is dovish, but the not-so-obvious dovishness leads to a volatile market for crypto. The risk market hopes to see a certain new cycle, but the Federal Reserve and Powell are actually exacerbating future uncertainties while treating each meeting and dot plot release as a one-time action,
resulting in a high probability that each rate cut (including next year) will lead to a market trend that initially rises due to positive expectations, followed by volatile retraction.
If you have enough experience, you can tentatively short $BTC or $ETH in the few hours after the rate cut.
#比特币VS代币化黄金
See original
Several seemingly inconspicuous but very useful details for bullish reversals
1. When obvious bad news appears in the market (such as tightening regulations, macro data falling short of expectations, major institutions facing crises, etc.),
the price only drops symbolically for a moment and then quickly recovers.
This indicates that the short selling power in the market has been exhausted, those who needed to cut losses have done so, and the remaining holders are all die-hard bulls who will not sell regardless of any bad news.
2. The quiet rise in OTC premium rates; seasoned investors know that if the price of U suddenly rises but the market remains unchanged, it indicates that more money is coming in than going out, and the buying power is getting stronger.
3. The soaring sentiment caused by the sudden outbreak of junk assets or memes
One characteristic before a bullish reversal is the arrogance and caution of capital; once there is a missed opportunity, retail investors will collectively turn their attention to those high-volatility assets that have not significantly risen yet.
4. The change in the direction of price spikes on exchanges
In a bear market, most market trends are upward spikes that trap bulls, but before a bullish reversal, candlestick patterns often show frequent downward spikes targeting bull leverage, and this occurs without any negative events.
#加密市场反弹
1. When obvious bad news appears in the market (such as tightening regulations, macro data falling short of expectations, major institutions facing crises, etc.),
the price only drops symbolically for a moment and then quickly recovers.
This indicates that the short selling power in the market has been exhausted, those who needed to cut losses have done so, and the remaining holders are all die-hard bulls who will not sell regardless of any bad news.
2. The quiet rise in OTC premium rates; seasoned investors know that if the price of U suddenly rises but the market remains unchanged, it indicates that more money is coming in than going out, and the buying power is getting stronger.
3. The soaring sentiment caused by the sudden outbreak of junk assets or memes
One characteristic before a bullish reversal is the arrogance and caution of capital; once there is a missed opportunity, retail investors will collectively turn their attention to those high-volatility assets that have not significantly risen yet.
4. The change in the direction of price spikes on exchanges
In a bear market, most market trends are upward spikes that trap bulls, but before a bullish reversal, candlestick patterns often show frequent downward spikes targeting bull leverage, and this occurs without any negative events.
#加密市场反弹
See original
Why do retail investors hold on to their losses, but as soon as they break even and make a little profit, they run away?
The continuous psychological torment of holding losing positions has scared them, and they don't want to go through it again. They can only choose the simplest way to escape: run as soon as they break even. This should be a true reflection of the psychology of new traders.
#加密市场反弹
The continuous psychological torment of holding losing positions has scared them, and they don't want to go through it again. They can only choose the simplest way to escape: run as soon as they break even. This should be a true reflection of the psychology of new traders.
#加密市场反弹
See original
I saw someone in Binance Square say that $ASTER is from Shandong, every time it falls to CZ's buying price, it strongly rebounds.
The project team understands the human relations and intricacies of the Shandong political scene, they can't let the leaders lose money no matter what 😂.
#比特币VS代币化黄金
The project team understands the human relations and intricacies of the Shandong political scene, they can't let the leaders lose money no matter what 😂.
#比特币VS代币化黄金
See original
BTC and ETH have now become assets in two different sectors,
Both have completely different buyers and bull-bear structures,
And both have begun to experience a shift away from retail speculation towards institutional allocation and utility-driven models.
- $BTC is becoming a global macro hedge asset, with investors focusing on fiat currency depreciation, debt cycles, and the risk resistance of asset allocation.
- $ETH is seen as a yield-generating asset in the digital economy, with marginal buyers focusing on network cash flow, staking yields, and the expansion speed of on-chain ecosystems.
The purchasing logic for BTC has completely shifted from virtual to real, moving from pure speculation to traditional balance sheet management.
The largest buyers are naturally ETFs, but in reality, the primary role of ETFs for BTC now is passive allocation, as many institutions (like pension funds and endowments) have started to include BTC in their 60/40 investment portfolios (for example, allocating 1-3%),
This type of buying is insensitive to price and represents a long-term stable passive demand, functioning as an automatic investment in BTC, which will gradually raise the price floor of BTC without anyone noticing. This is also why I believe it is difficult for BTC to experience a serious collapse.
The buying structure for ETH is complex but easy to understand. Although ETH also has ETFs, a portion of ETH investors actually value the risk-free rate on-chain.
Some institutions optimistic about ETH are more focused on continuous yield, buying spot and staking, which is also why the scale of ETH's ETF seems less massive than BTC's, as a large amount of demand is diverted to on-chain staking.
Investors in the crypto space seldom pay attention to traditional investors' views on ETH. In our eyes, blue-chip ETH is akin to small-cap altcoins with high volatility in traditional sectors, and their attention to Ethereum's income dividends is higher than one might expect.
The yield-oriented institutions mentioned earlier view ETH as an alternative bond, especially when U.S. Treasury yields are declining (currently in a rate-cutting cycle). The 3-4% staking yield of ETH becomes increasingly attractive to yield-seeking institutions, and as long as ETH's yield outperforms the 10-year U.S. Treasury allocation, they will automatically buy, regardless of the narrative.
#比特币VS代币化黄金
Both have completely different buyers and bull-bear structures,
And both have begun to experience a shift away from retail speculation towards institutional allocation and utility-driven models.
- $BTC is becoming a global macro hedge asset, with investors focusing on fiat currency depreciation, debt cycles, and the risk resistance of asset allocation.
- $ETH is seen as a yield-generating asset in the digital economy, with marginal buyers focusing on network cash flow, staking yields, and the expansion speed of on-chain ecosystems.
The purchasing logic for BTC has completely shifted from virtual to real, moving from pure speculation to traditional balance sheet management.
The largest buyers are naturally ETFs, but in reality, the primary role of ETFs for BTC now is passive allocation, as many institutions (like pension funds and endowments) have started to include BTC in their 60/40 investment portfolios (for example, allocating 1-3%),
This type of buying is insensitive to price and represents a long-term stable passive demand, functioning as an automatic investment in BTC, which will gradually raise the price floor of BTC without anyone noticing. This is also why I believe it is difficult for BTC to experience a serious collapse.
The buying structure for ETH is complex but easy to understand. Although ETH also has ETFs, a portion of ETH investors actually value the risk-free rate on-chain.
Some institutions optimistic about ETH are more focused on continuous yield, buying spot and staking, which is also why the scale of ETH's ETF seems less massive than BTC's, as a large amount of demand is diverted to on-chain staking.
Investors in the crypto space seldom pay attention to traditional investors' views on ETH. In our eyes, blue-chip ETH is akin to small-cap altcoins with high volatility in traditional sectors, and their attention to Ethereum's income dividends is higher than one might expect.
The yield-oriented institutions mentioned earlier view ETH as an alternative bond, especially when U.S. Treasury yields are declining (currently in a rate-cutting cycle). The 3-4% staking yield of ETH becomes increasingly attractive to yield-seeking institutions, and as long as ETH's yield outperforms the 10-year U.S. Treasury allocation, they will automatically buy, regardless of the narrative.
#比特币VS代币化黄金
See original
It can be anticipated that the upper potential of RWA is at a hundred-fold level, but there seem to be few targets that can participate.
$ONDO
$ONDO
See original
The Federal Reserve's Predicament, Narrative Continuity Under Challenge
The current Federal Reserve has reached a stage where it must prepare a narrative for the next round of liquidity.
Unlike QE, which directly stimulates the economy, the Federal Reserve will package their easing actions more discreetly.
In this FOMC meeting, there is a high probability of seeing some clues.
In fact, the Federal Reserve has already laid some groundwork to address liquidity issues.
The FOMC has stopped the previous balance sheet reduction and will no longer reinvest in maturing assets starting from December 1, which means that the principal of agency bonds/agency MBS will be returned and reinvested in Treasury bills, while extending the maturity of maturing government bonds.
Unlike QE, which directly stimulates the economy, the Federal Reserve will package their easing actions more discreetly.
In this FOMC meeting, there is a high probability of seeing some clues.
In fact, the Federal Reserve has already laid some groundwork to address liquidity issues.
The FOMC has stopped the previous balance sheet reduction and will no longer reinvest in maturing assets starting from December 1, which means that the principal of agency bonds/agency MBS will be returned and reinvested in Treasury bills, while extending the maturity of maturing government bonds.
See original
The most important macro event of this year is approaching, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (December 9-10),
Although the outcome has already been revealed, the real market game has just begun.
The market now generally expects a 25bp cut, but in fact, this outcome itself is already difficult to price in.
How this interest rate meeting will determine the trend of risk assets will definitely depend on the degree of internal divisions and expectations for next year's direction.
The internal divisions this time may be more intense than imagined, and the opposition's forced compromise does not equal a unanimous rate cut, at least from my perspective, there will definitely be a significant number of votes against the rate cut. The opposition affects market sentiment, and cryptocurrencies rely on emotional liquidity; a disunited rate cut is not necessarily a positive for the crypto space.
Powell is highly likely to implement this 25bp cut, but he certainly does not dare to appear too relaxed in front of the public. He must use more severe language to manage future rate cut expectations, or clearly tell the market that there will be no autopilot mode for rate cuts in the future, and the entire meeting will be packaged as an extremely cautious risk management action.
A rate cut is dovish, but the not-so-obvious dovishness leads to a volatile market for crypto. The risk market hopes to see a certain new cycle, but the Federal Reserve and Powell are actually exacerbating future uncertainties while treating each meeting and dot plot release as a one-time action,
resulting in a high probability that each rate cut (including next year) will lead to a market trend that initially rises due to positive expectations, followed by volatile retraction.
If you have enough experience, you can tentatively short $BTC or $ETH in the few hours after the rate cut.
#比特币VS代币化黄金
Although the outcome has already been revealed, the real market game has just begun.
The market now generally expects a 25bp cut, but in fact, this outcome itself is already difficult to price in.
How this interest rate meeting will determine the trend of risk assets will definitely depend on the degree of internal divisions and expectations for next year's direction.
The internal divisions this time may be more intense than imagined, and the opposition's forced compromise does not equal a unanimous rate cut, at least from my perspective, there will definitely be a significant number of votes against the rate cut. The opposition affects market sentiment, and cryptocurrencies rely on emotional liquidity; a disunited rate cut is not necessarily a positive for the crypto space.
Powell is highly likely to implement this 25bp cut, but he certainly does not dare to appear too relaxed in front of the public. He must use more severe language to manage future rate cut expectations, or clearly tell the market that there will be no autopilot mode for rate cuts in the future, and the entire meeting will be packaged as an extremely cautious risk management action.
A rate cut is dovish, but the not-so-obvious dovishness leads to a volatile market for crypto. The risk market hopes to see a certain new cycle, but the Federal Reserve and Powell are actually exacerbating future uncertainties while treating each meeting and dot plot release as a one-time action,
resulting in a high probability that each rate cut (including next year) will lead to a market trend that initially rises due to positive expectations, followed by volatile retraction.
If you have enough experience, you can tentatively short $BTC or $ETH in the few hours after the rate cut.
#比特币VS代币化黄金
See original
Summary of secondary market catalysts, which may not necessarily drive token upward but certainly aligns with the current market situation.
$AAVE: Aave is discussing/pushing to reduce or even remove Sky's USDS (and related stablecoin exposure) from the collateral system.
Additionally, Aave is discussing the contraction and optimization of multi-chain expansion, considering gradually shutting down some on-chain deployments and setting clearer income thresholds.
$JUP: Kamino has blocked the Refinance migration path of Jupiter Lend at the protocol level, raising controversy over whether it violates the spirit of open finance.
$YB: YieldBasis has announced and implemented the Fee Switch, with the DAO distributing captured protocol fees to veYB holders, with the first batch of fees to be allocated calculated in BTC.
$SOL / $AERO (Base) / $LINK: Base has launched the Base–Solana Bridge on the mainnet, secured by Chainlink CCIP and Coinbase, allowing Base applications to natively support Solana assets and liquidity. Additionally, the Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF (GLNK) has begun trading on NYSE Arca, which is also a positive development for LINK.
$UNI : Uniswap has integrated Revolut's fiat deposit channel, converting users from Europe's large-scale financial app into one of the on-chain incremental entry points, reducing friction for new users.
$ENA USDe has now become one of the quoted assets for Hyperliquid spot and HIP-3 perpetual.
$ENA / $MORPHO: 21Shares has launched Ethena (EENA) and Morpho (MORPH) spot ETPs in Europe.
#比特币VS代币化黄金
$AAVE: Aave is discussing/pushing to reduce or even remove Sky's USDS (and related stablecoin exposure) from the collateral system.
Additionally, Aave is discussing the contraction and optimization of multi-chain expansion, considering gradually shutting down some on-chain deployments and setting clearer income thresholds.
$JUP: Kamino has blocked the Refinance migration path of Jupiter Lend at the protocol level, raising controversy over whether it violates the spirit of open finance.
$YB: YieldBasis has announced and implemented the Fee Switch, with the DAO distributing captured protocol fees to veYB holders, with the first batch of fees to be allocated calculated in BTC.
$SOL / $AERO (Base) / $LINK: Base has launched the Base–Solana Bridge on the mainnet, secured by Chainlink CCIP and Coinbase, allowing Base applications to natively support Solana assets and liquidity. Additionally, the Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF (GLNK) has begun trading on NYSE Arca, which is also a positive development for LINK.
$UNI : Uniswap has integrated Revolut's fiat deposit channel, converting users from Europe's large-scale financial app into one of the on-chain incremental entry points, reducing friction for new users.
$ENA USDe has now become one of the quoted assets for Hyperliquid spot and HIP-3 perpetual.
$ENA / $MORPHO: 21Shares has launched Ethena (EENA) and Morpho (MORPH) spot ETPs in Europe.
#比特币VS代币化黄金
See original
Most institutions believe that the market structure of Bitcoin and the crypto market is similar to that of the first quarter of 2022.
1. The proportion of BTC losses and the scale of losses are the same as in the first quarter of 2022.
Similar to 2022, $BTC is experiencing a critical zone of whether it formally turns bearish, with the number of trapped positions starting to increase rapidly.
According to on-chain data, over 25% of the total supply of BTC is currently in a floating loss state, with approximately 5–7 million BTC in a loss state,
with a maximum of 7.1 million BTC in floating losses, almost identical to early 2022.
2. The flow of funds has become very weak.
The current monthly inflow of BTC is only 8.6 billion USD, a significant decrease compared to 64.3 billion USD in July of this year. Of course, the good news is that it has not temporarily turned into negative inflow (outflow).
In fact, the current situation is similar to the funding situation in 2022; funds have not completely disappeared, but the incremental funds are unable to support the previous high valuations.
3. Long-term holders are still selling for profit, but profit margins are sharply contracting.
Some institutions believe that the current period is a digestion phase for BTC's bearish trend in the second half, with long-term funds continuously selling off while profit margins continue to decline, still similar to 2022, but long-term funds have not yet entered the trapped stage.
4. The impact of macroeconomic conditions and liquidity shocks is beginning to increase rapidly, similar to the interest rate hike cycle of 2022, except that it was affecting OTC at that time, and currently it is impacting spot ETFs.
5. The market has entered a chronic deleveraging phase.
As time progresses, long positions are being gradually eliminated, but it is difficult to see extreme long liquidations in the market and news anymore.
6. Altcoins have completed structural retreats, being washed out before BTC.
In just November, the Memecoins sector driving the market has retraced about 66% from this year's peak, and altcoins have entered a phase of no capital inflow, with altcoin projects entering a washout and survival phase.
It is worth noting that even though the current market structure is similar to Q1 2022, BTC and the altcoin market have an additional demand channel in the form of spot ETFs. Additionally, without a time bomb like 3AC, the systemic risk of on-chain credit/lending is much smaller than in 2022.
At the same time, the macroeconomic environment is in a rate-cutting cycle, and macro liquidity may not necessarily be poor. Therefore, a major crash may not occur, and the crypto market is likely to be in a state of low volatility and gradual decline, which may last until the end of 2026.
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #美联储重启降息步伐
1. The proportion of BTC losses and the scale of losses are the same as in the first quarter of 2022.
Similar to 2022, $BTC is experiencing a critical zone of whether it formally turns bearish, with the number of trapped positions starting to increase rapidly.
According to on-chain data, over 25% of the total supply of BTC is currently in a floating loss state, with approximately 5–7 million BTC in a loss state,
with a maximum of 7.1 million BTC in floating losses, almost identical to early 2022.
2. The flow of funds has become very weak.
The current monthly inflow of BTC is only 8.6 billion USD, a significant decrease compared to 64.3 billion USD in July of this year. Of course, the good news is that it has not temporarily turned into negative inflow (outflow).
In fact, the current situation is similar to the funding situation in 2022; funds have not completely disappeared, but the incremental funds are unable to support the previous high valuations.
3. Long-term holders are still selling for profit, but profit margins are sharply contracting.
Some institutions believe that the current period is a digestion phase for BTC's bearish trend in the second half, with long-term funds continuously selling off while profit margins continue to decline, still similar to 2022, but long-term funds have not yet entered the trapped stage.
4. The impact of macroeconomic conditions and liquidity shocks is beginning to increase rapidly, similar to the interest rate hike cycle of 2022, except that it was affecting OTC at that time, and currently it is impacting spot ETFs.
5. The market has entered a chronic deleveraging phase.
As time progresses, long positions are being gradually eliminated, but it is difficult to see extreme long liquidations in the market and news anymore.
6. Altcoins have completed structural retreats, being washed out before BTC.
In just November, the Memecoins sector driving the market has retraced about 66% from this year's peak, and altcoins have entered a phase of no capital inflow, with altcoin projects entering a washout and survival phase.
It is worth noting that even though the current market structure is similar to Q1 2022, BTC and the altcoin market have an additional demand channel in the form of spot ETFs. Additionally, without a time bomb like 3AC, the systemic risk of on-chain credit/lending is much smaller than in 2022.
At the same time, the macroeconomic environment is in a rate-cutting cycle, and macro liquidity may not necessarily be poor. Therefore, a major crash may not occur, and the crypto market is likely to be in a state of low volatility and gradual decline, which may last until the end of 2026.
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #美联储重启降息步伐
See original
Is the reason for the collapse of this round of altcoin season really due to the unlocking of VC coins?
No matter how VC and market makers whitewash themselves, at least the data does not lie.
1. The unlocking market value amount of the altcoin market can be considered astronomical.
- From 2024 to 2025, the total unlocking is expected to exceed $150 billion.
- In 2024 alone, the altcoin market has digested about $82 billion of unlocking selling pressure.
If we compare this with the total market value of altcoins, excluding BTC/ETH, the total market value of altcoins dropped from the peak of $1.6 trillion in December 2024 to $950 billion in April 2025, a decline of -41%, evaporating about $650 billion in market value.
Theoretically, the total unlocking over two years ($150 billion) accounts for 9-10% of the peak market value. Even if we assume that all $150 billion of unlocking funds were sold off, it could only explain about 23% of the market value decline. The reason for the drop of 70%-80% is quite simple: the bottom-fishing funds in the altcoin market are either all in the vehicle or have already been harvested.
2. Retail investors have discovered the inevitable death pattern of VC coins.
In February 2024, popular projects Aptos and AVAX underperformed the broader market a week after large unlockings (over $200 million in market value).
In June 2024, market liquidity was exhausted, and Aptos unlocked about 11.31 million coins monthly, with a 30-day decline of 25.74%.
Another example is $STRK in the same month, which unlocked 64 million coins on June 15 and fell 37.87% in 30 days.
This has actually made most retail investors realize that sustained monthly inflation of 2-6% will inevitably lead to long-term underperformance compared to BTC, which has low inflation and high inflow as a large-cap asset.
3. The altcoin season was merely a flash in the pan in December 2024 and quickly went to zero.
In December 2024, the altcoin index surged to 84-88, and BTC's market share fell to 54.8%. However, soon after the MEME trend receded, the altcoin market quickly fell to 12, and by February 2025, only 13 of the Top 100 tokens outperformed BTC, making it the shortest altcoin season.
Even during the altcoin season in December 2024, only 28.1% of the Top 250 altcoins outperformed BTC. It is also worth noting that among the top 54 new coins by market value in 2024, as many as 19 were Meme tokens.
The reason this round of altcoin season disappeared is essentially that the secondary market refused to pay for the high valuations of the primary market. It may take multiple rounds of slaughter or explosions of VC coins before we can see a traditional sense of altcoin broad rise and sector rotation. #币安区块链周
No matter how VC and market makers whitewash themselves, at least the data does not lie.
1. The unlocking market value amount of the altcoin market can be considered astronomical.
- From 2024 to 2025, the total unlocking is expected to exceed $150 billion.
- In 2024 alone, the altcoin market has digested about $82 billion of unlocking selling pressure.
If we compare this with the total market value of altcoins, excluding BTC/ETH, the total market value of altcoins dropped from the peak of $1.6 trillion in December 2024 to $950 billion in April 2025, a decline of -41%, evaporating about $650 billion in market value.
Theoretically, the total unlocking over two years ($150 billion) accounts for 9-10% of the peak market value. Even if we assume that all $150 billion of unlocking funds were sold off, it could only explain about 23% of the market value decline. The reason for the drop of 70%-80% is quite simple: the bottom-fishing funds in the altcoin market are either all in the vehicle or have already been harvested.
2. Retail investors have discovered the inevitable death pattern of VC coins.
In February 2024, popular projects Aptos and AVAX underperformed the broader market a week after large unlockings (over $200 million in market value).
In June 2024, market liquidity was exhausted, and Aptos unlocked about 11.31 million coins monthly, with a 30-day decline of 25.74%.
Another example is $STRK in the same month, which unlocked 64 million coins on June 15 and fell 37.87% in 30 days.
This has actually made most retail investors realize that sustained monthly inflation of 2-6% will inevitably lead to long-term underperformance compared to BTC, which has low inflation and high inflow as a large-cap asset.
3. The altcoin season was merely a flash in the pan in December 2024 and quickly went to zero.
In December 2024, the altcoin index surged to 84-88, and BTC's market share fell to 54.8%. However, soon after the MEME trend receded, the altcoin market quickly fell to 12, and by February 2025, only 13 of the Top 100 tokens outperformed BTC, making it the shortest altcoin season.
Even during the altcoin season in December 2024, only 28.1% of the Top 250 altcoins outperformed BTC. It is also worth noting that among the top 54 new coins by market value in 2024, as many as 19 were Meme tokens.
The reason this round of altcoin season disappeared is essentially that the secondary market refused to pay for the high valuations of the primary market. It may take multiple rounds of slaughter or explosions of VC coins before we can see a traditional sense of altcoin broad rise and sector rotation. #币安区块链周
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