Fangsbit

You have to mindlessly believe in BTC!
$BTC
As a veteran who has been in the circle for 8 years, the reason I am not financially free yet is that when I first entered the circle, I didn't believe in always holding a large position in BTC; AltCoins depend on luck! I've wasted many years and only came to my senses in 2022; otherwise, I still wouldn't be making money now, and it would have all been for nothing!

#dailyword

Don't adjust positions randomly because of FOMO. Except for btc eth bnb sol, all purchases should be made before the surge. #BTC #热门话题

#BTC四维信号
Trend Break, Funding Divergence, Derivatives Short Squeeze, Macro Bias Warming

Trend

• Death Cross Suppression: Price has fallen below MA20 (approximately 71,900) and MA50 (approximately 70,500), with short-term moving averages showing a bearish arrangement and a weak technical outlook.

• Key Support Testing: Current price is about 70,800 USD, testing the effectiveness of the 70,000 USD round number and MA50 support.

Funding Flow

• ETF Inflow Divergence: On April 10, a net inflow of 240 million USD (+3,350 BTC) was recorded in one day, but there were consecutive outflows on April 7-8, indicating a hesitant state of institutional funds showing “two steps forward, one step back.”

• Monthly Turnaround: March saw the ETF end a streak of four consecutive months of outflows, with a single month net inflow of 1.32 billion USD, maintaining net inflow since April, suggesting a willingness to accumulate at the bottom.

Derivatives

• Short Squeeze Signal: The overall funding rate across the network is near 0% (some negative), but open interest (OI) has risen to 24.2 billion USD (a five-week high), forming a typical short crowded structure of “high OI + negative funding rate.”

• De-leveraging Risk: The price decline is accompanied by a decrease in OI, indicating that bulls are passively reducing their positions, but the negative funding rate has limited further selling momentum.

Macro

• Nasdaq Consecutive Gains: The Nasdaq index has recently recorded eight consecutive gains, with a weekly cumulative increase of 4.68%, and the risk appetite for tech stocks has warmed, not dragging down BTC.

• Decoupling: BTC did not follow the Nasdaq's strong rebound, indicating that internal chip structure (such as profit-taking) is the dominant factor currently.

Comprehensive Judgment

In the short term, it is in a weak bottoming phase. The 70,000 USD support is facing a test, and if it is breached, it may drop to the 68,000-69,000 USD range. The crowded short structure in derivatives means that a rebound could trigger a rapid short squeeze, but it needs to stabilize above 72,000 USD (MA20) first to ease the downward pressure. $BTC

BTCUSDT 4-Hour Trading Plan $BTC

Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

1. 4-Hour Market Structure

Current price is operating within a low-level converging range; MA5/MA20 is highly correlated, with no clear trend.
MACD zero axis is flat, with extremely weak momentum; RSI is neutral and fluctuating.
Overall, the volume is shrinking and consolidating; any breakout must be confirmed with increased volume.
There is significant resistance from trapped positions above, while support structures from previous breakouts below remain intact.

2. Key Long and Short Price Levels

• Resistance: 71800-72000 Daily High Resistance | 72600-72800 Previous Strong Resistance Area

• Support: 70800-71000 Lower Bound of Range | 70300 Breakthrough Watershed | 69400 MA30 Lifeline

3. Execution Trading Strategy

1. Buy on Dips (Main Strategy)

Entry: 70800-71000 Enter in batches after a 4-hour positive close stabilizes.
Stop Loss: 69300 (exit unconditionally if structure breaks)
Position Size: 4%-5% of total funds
Take Profit: Reduce position by 50% at 72000, reduce by 40% at 72700; remaining base position 1.5 ATR trailing stop.

2. Light Short on Previous Highs (Auxiliary Strategy)

Entry: 72500-72800 Enter on increased volume with a negative close.
Stop Loss: 73300
Take Profit: 71200, 70800
Position Size: ≤3%, quick in and out.

3. Mandatory Wait-and-See

No positions throughout the 71000-71800 low-volume range; do not open positions in advance.

4. Risk Control Rules

1. If the 4-hour close drops below 70300, exit all long positions.
2. Each individual loss is strictly controlled to 1% of total funds; do not hold losing positions, do not add to losing positions against the trend.
3. Only trade on strong volume breakouts, strictly filter out false breakouts.

BTCUSDT Trading Plan (March 31, 08:45, Current Price 66,810 USDT)

Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

I. Current Signals (4-hour + Daily)

• 4-hour: High pullback, rebound meets resistance; MACD red bar on the zero axis is shrinking, with signs of a death cross; RSI 58 is strong but pulling back; price is pressured at the 67,000 level, bullish momentum is weakening, and oscillation is slightly bearish.

• Daily: Within a medium-term downward channel, 65,800 support is effective; rebound meets resistance, and the bearish trend has not reversed.

• Key Levels: Resistance 67,000 / 67,600 / 68,200; Support 66,200 / 65,800 / 65,200.

II. Trading Strategy (Light Position, Slightly Bearish Oscillation, Strict Risk Control)

1. Short (Prioritize if rebound meets resistance, light position)

• Entry: Rebound 67,000–67,200 light short (Total position ≤2%)

• Stop Loss: 67,800 (If broken with high volume, then the rebound continues)

• Take Profit:

◦ First Take Profit 66,400 (Reduce position by 50%)

◦ Second Take Profit 66,000 (Close all)

• Risk Control: Single loss ≤ Total funds 1%

2. Long (Try long on pullback support, very light position)

• Entry: Pullback 66,000–66,200 very light long (Total position ≤1%)

• Stop Loss: 65,700 (If broken, rebound fails)

• Take Profit:

◦ First Take Profit 66,800 (Reduce position by 50%)

◦ Second Take Profit 67,000 (Close all, do not linger in battle)

3. Watch Conditions

• Price is narrowly oscillating between 66,300–66,900 with low volume, mainly watch.

• If the 4-hour does not break through 67,600 with volume or falls below 65,800, do not heavily bet on one side.

III. One-sentence Conclusion

The 4-hour rebound meets resistance, bullish momentum is weakening, and the daily bearish trend remains unchanged; prioritize high shorts on rebounds, try long on pullbacks with very light positions, strictly stop loss, do not chase orders $BTC

BTCUSDT Quick Reference Card (March 28, 13:59, Current Price 65,950 USDT)

Information for reference only, not constituting investment advice

1. Current Signals (4-hour + Daily)

• 4-hour: After a significant drop, low-level narrow fluctuations, MACD death cross below the zero line, green bars continue to narrow, RSI 28 is in the oversold range; price is under pressure from all short-term moving averages, rebound without volume, no clear stop-loss signal, bearish pattern remains unchanged

• Daily: Mid-term downward channel accelerates, continuously breaking key support levels 70000→68000→66000, MACD death cross deepens, bearish trend is clear, no reversal signal in the short term

• Key Levels: Resistance 66,500–67,200; Support 65,500 / 65,000 / 63,500

2. Simplified Operations (light position, only short, no bottom fishing, strict risk control)

1. Entry

◦ Rebound 66,500–66,800 light short (total position ≤ 2%)

◦ Rebound 67,000–67,200 add short (total position ≤ 3%, extreme market strictly control position)

◦ Current price 65,950 mainly wait and see, do not chase shorts, do not go long

◦ Single loss ≤ total capital 1%

2. Stop Loss

◦ Short positions uniformly set at 68,000 (if broken, the downward trend temporarily pauses, logic fails)

3. Take Profit (in batches)

◦ First take profit 65,500 (reduce position by 50%)

◦ Second take profit 65,000 (reduce position by 40%)

◦ Remaining 10% position: for every 500-point drop, move stop loss down by 400 points, ultimate target 63,500

4. Exit Conditions (triggered to liquidate all)

◦ 4-hour volume stands above 67,200 and MACD golden cross

◦ If the first take profit is not reached within 4 hours → directly liquidate

3. One-sentence Conclusion

4-hour oversold low-level fluctuations, bearish dominance unchanged, daily breakdown downward trend is clear; only do rebound shorts, very light positions, strict stop loss, never bottom fish and go long, wait for clear stop-loss signals $BTC

BTC 3.24 Trading Strategy: A Tug-of-War Under Low Volume Rebound

Bullish Strategy

• Entry Signal: Relying on the 4H MACD golden cross and the support at 69500 Bollinger middle band, take a light position to go long.

• Risk Control Points: Set stop loss below 68500, strictly control position to cope with the daily death cross pressure, and view low volume rebounds as a trap for bullish positions.

Bearish Strategy

• Entry Signal: The daily death cross structure remains unchanged, and weak rebounds should be staggered to build short positions in the range of 71500-72000.

• Risk Control Points: Set stop loss above 73000, targeting the 70000 level and 69000 support.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 71500 (4H upper band), 72000 (daily moving average death cross point).

• Support: 69500 (4H middle band), 68500 (bullish defense line).
$BTC

BTCUSDT Quick Reference Card (March 23, 06:55, Current Price 68,700 USDT)

Information for reference only, not investment advice

1. Current Signals (4-hour + Daily)

• 4-hour: Bearish dominant, volume breakout; MACD death cross below zero line, green bars expanding; price declining along the lower Bollinger band, very weak rebound

• Daily: Bearish continuation, consecutive bearish breakout; MACD death cross deepens, price loses all moving averages; overall direction clearly down

• Key Levels: Resistance 69,800–70,800; Support 68,000 / 67,300

2. Simplified Operations (Only short, no bottom fishing, light positions)

1. Entry

◦ Current price 68,600–68,800 light short (Total position ≤ 5%)

◦ Rebound 69,800–70,300 add to short

◦ Single loss ≤ total capital 2%

2. Stop Loss

◦ Set at 71,000 (breakout invalidates trend)

3. Take Profit (in batches)

◦ First take profit: 68,000 (reduce position by 30%)

◦ Second take profit: 67,300 (reduce position by 50%)

◦ Remaining 20%: for every 800 points drop, move stop loss up by 600 points

4. Exit Conditions (All positions close when triggered)

◦ 4-hour MACD golden cross

◦ Volume breaks above 70,800

◦ Entry not reached 24 hours at 68,000 → first reduce position by 50%

3. One-sentence Conclusion

Breakout downwards, bearish acceleration, rebound lacks volume, support is weak; only short, no bottom fishing, execute with light positions, strict stop loss $BTC

BTCUSDT Quick Reference Card (March 22, 07:30, Current Price 70,230 USDT)

Information for reference only and does not constitute investment advice

1. Current Signals (4-hour + Daily)

• 4-hour: Fluctuating slightly bearish, weak rebound; MACD close to the zero axis, RSI neutral to weak; Price below MA5/10/20, short-term bears dominate

• Daily: Continued bearishness, slight rebound after three consecutive downs; MACD death cross, price below the middle band of Bollinger; Overall direction still downward

• Key Levels: Resistance 70,800–71,500; Support 69,800 / 68,800

2. Simplified Operations (Only short, do not chase shorts, light positions)

1. Entry

◦ Current Price 70,200–70,400 Light Short (Total Position ≤ 6%)

◦ Rebound 70,800–71,200 Add Short

◦ Single Loss ≤ Total Capital 2%

2. Stop Loss

◦ Unified Set 71,800 (Breaking level means trend failure)

3. Take Profit (In Batches)

◦ First Take Profit: 69,800 (Reduce Position 30%)

◦ Second Take Profit: 68,800 (Reduce Position 50%)

◦ Remaining 20%: Move stop loss up 600 points for every 800 point drop

4. Exit Conditions (Trigger means full close)

◦ 4-hour MACD Golden Cross

◦ Volume breaks above 71,500

◦ Entry not reached 24 hours 69,800 → First reduce position 50%

3. One-Sentence Conclusion

Range fluctuating slightly bearish, rebound lacks volume, support weak; Light positions high short, strict stop loss, do not blindly catch the bottom
$BTC

BTCUSDT Quick Reference Card (March 21, 08:30, Current Price 70,700 USDT)

Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Current Signals (4-hour + Daily)

• 4-hour: Bearish oscillation, rebound on low volume (MACD death cross but green bars shorten; 69,000–68,500 support is effective; rebound to 70,700 but insufficient volume)

• Daily: Continuation of bearish trend, not breaking previous low (three consecutive bearish days, MACD death cross; 68,500 key support not broken, double bottom prototype)

• Key Levels: Resistance 71,500–72,000; Support 69,500 / 68,500

2. Simplified Operations (only short, no chasing shorts, light position)

1. Entry

◦ Current price 70,600–70,800 light short (total position ≤ 6%)

◦ Rebound 71,500–71,800 add short

◦ Single loss ≤ total capital 2%

2. Stop Loss

◦ Uniformly set at 72,200 (breaking this level invalidates the trend)

3. Take Profit (in batches)

◦ First take profit: 69,500 (reduce position by 30%)

◦ Second take profit: 68,500 (reduce position by 50%)

◦ Remaining 20%: for every drop of 800 points, move stop loss up by 600 points

4. Exit Conditions (triggered to fully close position)

◦ 4-hour MACD golden cross

◦ Breakout above 72,000 with volume

◦ If not reached 69,500 in 24 hours → first reduce position by 50%

3. One-sentence Conclusion

69,500–68,500 support is strong, rebound on low volume, leaning towards range-bound bearish; light short, strict stop loss.

BTCUSDT Quick Reference Card (March 20, 07:10, Current Price 70,000 USDT)

The information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Current Signals (4-hour + Daily)

• 4-hour: Bearish dominance but weakening momentum (MACD death cross, green bar shortening; rebounded after probing 68787, support at 69000–68500 is effective)

• Daily: Bearish continuation (three consecutive bearish candles, MACD death cross; has not broken the previous low of 68500, double bottom prototype)

• Key Levels: Resistance 71,000–71,800; Support 69,000 / 68,500

2. Simplified Operation (only short, do not chase shorts, light positions)

1. Entry

◦ Light short near the current price of 70,000 (total position ≤6%)

◦ Add short on rebound at 71,000–71,500

◦ Single loss ≤ total capital 2%

2. Stop Loss

◦ Uniformly set at 72,000 (breach indicates trend failure)

3. Take Profit (in batches)

◦ First take profit: 69,000 (reduce position by 30%)

◦ Second take profit: 68,500 (reduce position by 50%)

◦ Remaining 20%: for every drop of 800 points, move stop loss up by 600 points

4. Exit Conditions (trigger results in full liquidation)

◦ 4-hour MACD golden cross

◦ Volume breaks above 71,800

◦ Less than 24 hours since entry and price at 69,000 → first reduce position by 50%

3. One-Sentence Conclusion

Support at 69000–68500 is strong, rebound lacks volume, biased toward range-bound bearish; light position high short, strict stop loss.

#加密市场观察 $BTC
Yes, I had a liquidation on November 14th, losing 0.8 btc. I have finally recovered now and can calmly discuss this matter. The liquidation was partly due to my own greed; on October 17th, I even made a profit of 0.05 ntc, but I found that the resistance level around 117k could not be broken. Later, my position started to show a floating loss. Although I felt uneasy, I couldn't bear to cut my losses and always thought the bull market shouldn't end like this. Later, as everyone knows, the resistance level dropped from 112k little by little to 106k, 102k, 98k, and by the time it reached 92k, I really couldn't believe it would break below 90k, and that's how I got liquidated. Do I regret it? Of course, I do regret it, but during this time, I have also been summarizing my experiences and lessons learned. Fortunately, the base position is still there, and there is still a possibility of a comeback. Looking forward to the next four years.

#加密市场回调

Another sharp drop, the lowest around 99K! It's impossible not to be anxious! Reflecting on it, I mainly wanted to achieve a profit-loss ratio greater than 1 before selling. Although I planned to sell half a day before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, I didn't expect that the big players sold early at 1029 in the early morning... I missed that point, watching floating profits turn into floating losses, unable to take action. The subsequent market was just sell the news, plus a little black swan, and it actually broke through what I thought was the absolute resistance level of 102K... Either you can wait, or you can withstand it; waiting, I have no patience; enduring, but it can't hold on anymore. The retail investors are about to turn into chives. The rebound after the sharp drop may always come later than you expect.

I'm still holding on! Although I'm very pained by the rates, I'm not too panicked!
The closing price in October isn't high, but at the beginning of October it also climbed up to 126K, maybe a little more patience is needed, as long as it doesn't drop below 102K, this cycle won't be considered bearish🐻$BTC

Holding low levels of currency is the true path

#加密市场回调

I looked this morning, and the rise from last night has fallen back! Did I sell too early?? The disagreement between bulls and bears has been quite severe for the past half month; I'm still inexperienced and couldn't catch even a small wave. $BTC

#加密市场反弹

After waiting for so long, the anti-stock has finally turned red!
In the short term, I see 118K, sell one-third, at 125K sell all or sell one-third!
It feels like there is going to be a surge!

#加密市场回调

The rebound came faster than expected! The price has also reached near my cost price! The price of STH at 112K should be the resistance level at the bottom, I dare not call it higher, but I still think there is hope below the previous high of 125K
$BTC

#加密市场回调

When the water runs out, I sit and watch the clouds rise

Has everyone recovered from the crash of 1011? My 4x long position almost got liquidated!
During the crash, although my 'low position' buy orders were all executed, I still have an unrealized loss 😓 Now my position is a bit heavy, but I believe the future is promising.

#BTC再创新高

The pancake has reached a new high again. Recently, I've opened a few orders and made a small profit. Upon careful consideration, it seems that the execution of my strategy has not been adequate. Each small pullback has caused me to exit the market. The path of investment still requires honing! Looking at the current price, there aren't many opportunities left for me to 'pick up money'.
$BTC