evinlin

After the sharp drop of Bitcoin, it rebounded, pulling the market's nerves to the extreme; the betting probability of 'Jesus Christ appearing in 2026' on Polymarket doubled in a short period, even being compared to Bitcoin's returns. These two things seem absurd, but they point to the same reality: the more intense the market, the more attention craves an exit that can be told as a story, and the more capital desires a channel that can quickly retreat and quickly attack again. The former feeds on emotions, while the latter feeds on survival.

The bizarre contracts of prediction markets can explode in popularity because they package extremely low probabilities into vast imaginative spaces, with prices doubling looking like a 'myth of returns', yet resembling attention self-anesthetizing in high volatility. Bitcoin's trend of first crashing and then rallying is even more brutal; it forces you to admit that you are not racing against opinions, but racing against time, and a slow step can be swallowed by volatility.

At this time, stablecoins and settlement infrastructure are the real trump cards. When crashes occur, people pull their positions back into stablecoins, and during rebounds, they rush back from stablecoins to risk assets. The more frequently this back-and-forth switching occurs, the more settlement friction will become an invisible cost. Networks like Plasma, which make stablecoin settlement their main business, become more like the answer in such market conditions; they do not provide miraculous narratives but offer smoother pathways for moving, allowing you to pay less when emotions flip.

Hot searches can be outrageous, and markets can be crazy, but what ultimately determines whether you can stay at the table is often not which story you bet on, but whether you have a sufficiently convenient way to move your money.

@Plasma

$XPL

#plasma

Many people ask if memes can make a comeback, and I say yes, because the lifeblood of memes is attention. When attention returns, liquidity returns, and prices can surge. But don't forget, memes rely on popularity to make a comeback; they rise quickly but can also fall quickly, and the worst fear is a drop in popularity. If you really want to extend the cycle, you need to focus on another type of comeback, one that relies on a system to get going.

The logic of dusk_foundation is very typical; it doesn't rise based on jokes, but gradually accumulates along the 'hard link' of compliant assets on-chain. The three points it is currently strongly related to are:

The first is the compliant asset link. It doesn't just talk about the RWA concept, but pushes the necessary steps of issuance, settlement, and data publication along the same line. For institutions, simply issuing assets is not enough; whether they can be traded and settled later, whether they can be reconciled, and whether the data standards can be explained clearly are the thresholds. As long as this link continues to advance, Dusk will find it easier to transition from a small circle narrative to being the infrastructure that more serious funds pay attention to.

The second is privacy execution layer capability. What Dusk emphasizes is not hiding everything, but making sensitive information protectable and rules verifiable; this is the kind of privacy that can be used in compliant scenarios. Once privacy becomes a callable module for developers, it is no longer just a marketing term but will turn into a 'basic component' that is repeatedly used in the ecosystem.

The third is cross-ecosystem scheduling and real usage. If the mainnet is an island, it is very difficult for the ecosystem to grow. The clearer the channels and the more predictable the costs, the more willing funds will be to schedule on a daily basis. As the frequency of scheduling increases, DUSK is more likely to see stable usage demand, rather than relying solely on emotional trading.

So my understanding of 'making a comeback' is very simple. The meme comeback is a return of attention, while Dusk's comeback is about the link being established. The former profits from emotional differences, while the latter profits from structural differences. If you only want short-term excitement, just focus on popularity; if you want to cross cycles, then keep an eye on whether projects like Dusk have made the compliant asset link, verifiable privacy, and cross-ecosystem scheduling into a reusable system. If you can achieve this, the comeback will be slow but more solid.

@Dusk $DUSK #Dusk

Recently, the selection of the new chair of the Federal Reserve has stirred market sentiment again. The nomination of Kevin Warsh appears to be a personnel change on the surface, but in reality, it is a recalibration of expectations. Over the next few months, the market will continuously ask the same question: is the new team more inclined towards interest rate cuts for stimulus, or do they emphasize policy discipline and the pace of balance sheet reduction? Even if the final path does not take a dramatic turn, this uncertainty itself is enough to make funds more cautious, especially making the valuation logic of risk assets more selective.

What the crypto circle fears most is this kind of phase. In the past, everyone could rely on narratives to withstand fluctuations and use liquidity imagination to support valuations. Now, once in a picky mode, the market suddenly becomes very realistic: can projects actually generate replicable business loops, can they reconcile accounts, can they clarify data standards, can they allow institutions to complete transactions without exposing sensitive information while still meeting compliance verification? If these questions remain unanswered, the higher the heat, the faster the fall.

This is also why I am more willing to focus on the Dusk Foundation at this juncture. Its recent progress is clearly taking a hard line, not relying on promotions, but instead building an end-to-end pipeline for compliant assets on-chain. It collaborates with the regulated exchange NPEX to advance interoperability and data standards, incorporating cross-chain settlement and market data publishing into the framework, so that assets are not just issued and forgotten, but can be traded, settled, and continuously provide data to on-chain applications. The aspect of privacy is also not just a slogan; it turns confidential transactions into executable capabilities, with the idea that sensitive information needs protection, rules must be provable, and only auditable privacy has the potential for institutional adoption. Further down to a more grounded liquidity path, the bi-directional bridge connects the mainnet and external ecosystems, deducting 1 DUSK for each bridge, usually completed within a few minutes, with a minimum bridging amount slightly above 1 DUSK. Such clear and detailed rules are very valuable in uncertain environments, because what funds fear most is not spending a little cost, but process uncertainty.

@Dusk $DUSK
#Dusk

When Bitcoin surged, many people thought it was sparked by news, but it actually seems more like funds suddenly moving more smoothly. The channels have shortened, the duration of positions has shortened, and the cash base of stablecoins can be adjusted at any time, leading to faster increases and quicker pullbacks. What you see is the price slope, but behind it, funds are switching more frequently between offense and retreat.

So in the upcoming market, there is no need to rush to give yourself a conclusion of 'must rise or must fall.' What is more likely to occur is high volatility and oscillation until the continuity of funds confirms the direction. What you really need to focus on is whether stablecoins continue to thicken, whether funds have shifted from wait-and-see to continuous net inflow, and whether the friction of each switch has been pressed down to a low enough level. The more the oscillation, the more moving happens, and the more important settlement becomes.

In such an environment, Plasma resembles a channel that facilitates smooth moving. When the market is hot, it accommodates the settlement demand for offense; when the market is cold, it accommodates the docking demand for retreat. The market may fluctuate repeatedly, but money will always find the easiest path. Whoever builds a smoother road will find it easier to be ahead in the next round of emotional recovery.

@Plasma

$XPL

#plasma

For the industry and projects, what can transcend cycles is not emotion, but settlement efficiency and service capability. Plasma's current data, cross-chain capabilities, and institutional collaborations are at least directionally closer to this path. What it needs to prove next is whether these metrics can continue to grow, whether they can transition from on-chain data to real-world payments, and from internal crypto cycles to broader commercial settlements.

@Plasma

$XPL

#plasma

When domestic virtual currency regulation becomes stricter, market sentiment often cools down first, and many people think this is the end of the story. In fact, it is more like a selection process, bringing the models that survive in the gray area to the forefront and forcing people to confront two questions: Is the flow of money clear? Are the costs controllable? Are the risks predictable?

The stricter the regulation, the more necessary it is to separate speculation from settlement. Speculation will be squeezed, but the demand for settlement will not disappear; instead, it will emphasize efficiency and substitutability even more. Cross-border payments, inter-platform fund scheduling, and temporary parking of profits—these actions will not stop because of a decrease in popularity, but will become more cautious, more dispersed, and more mindful of each step's friction.

The value of Plasma is easier to understand in this context. It does not rely on complex narratives to create excitement but treats the seemingly ordinary task of transferring stablecoins more like infrastructure, minimizing the presence of transfers and placing real competition on routing, exchanging, and service layers. When regulations tighten, what users fear most is not the absence of a skyrocketing story but the addition of an opaque link, another uncontrollable delay, and an unclear cost. Whoever can move funds more smoothly will be better able to sustain real usage, rather than just short-lived emotions.

In the short term, the uncertainty brought by regulation will cause many people to retreat and observe. But in the long run, it will force the industry to return from noise to hard work. What remains will not be the loudest projects but the networks that can handle settlement in a solid, low-friction, and sustainable manner.

@Plasma

$XPL

#plasma

Yi Lihua was revealed to reduce positions to stop losses. Many people's first reaction is to watch the excitement, and the second reaction is panic. But I want to say that the real significance of this matter is not how much someone lost, but that it reveals the underlying rules of the market for you. When the market changes, leverage will backfire; no matter how large the funds are, they must make choices according to the liquidation line. You think you are playing trends, but in fact, you are racing against risk management.

Therefore, the most valuable insight from such events for ordinary people is to shift from 'betting on direction' to 'choosing projects that can survive.' Especially during periods of volatility, the market will prefer projects that do not rely on emotions to survive, can deliver continuously, and can keep the links running. The dusk_foundation belongs to this more systematic approach. It does not make hot searches every day but focuses on the hard links that truly need compliance assets: settlement, data standards, cross-ecosystem scheduling, and the usability and verifiability of privacy. You can see its recent progress clearly aims to make a reusable process from issuance to trading to settlement to data release for regulated assets, rather than a one-time display. The bidirectional bridge connects the main network and external ecosystems back and forth, with clear rules and predictable costs, paving the way for real usage. Coupled with the direction of staking and more productized participation, the goal is to stabilize the security budget, allowing the network to run long-term.

The revelation about Yi Lihua is not meant for you to mock anyone, but to remind you that the market is entering a 'more realistic' phase. Pay less attention to emotions and more to structure. Are there continuous actions in the compliance asset chain? Are there more applications adopting the capabilities of the privacy execution layer? Is cross-ecosystem scheduling becoming more routine? Keeping an eye on these three things is much more reliable than guessing the next rebound.

@Dusk $DUSK #Dusk

Dusk's current focus should not be on emotions, but rather on whether the three "hard developments" are continuing to move forward.
In this article, I won't talk about macro trends or trending topics, but will purely discuss the Dusk Foundation's projects. Many people currently look at DUSK solely in terms of price fluctuations, which leads to increasing anxiety. However, for projects of this nature, short-term emotions do not necessarily indicate the underlying issues; what truly matters is whether there is continuity in progress, especially related to core capabilities such as compliant assets, data, settlement, and privacy execution.
The first hard development is that the compliant asset chain is moving towards an "end-to-end framework."
Dusk's recent direction is very clear; it is not just about creating compliant assets, but also about consolidating the processes of issuance, trading, settlement, and market data into the same framework. For institutions, issuance is just the beginning; whether they can settle, reconcile, and whether the data standards can be explained ultimately determine long-term viability. Dusk is placing interoperability and data standards at the core of its advancement, essentially addressing the "must-answer questions" for institutions. If this line of work can continue to take shape, leading to more reusable processes and real asset activities, its value will transition from narrative to systemic capability.
The second hard development is that privacy is moving from concept to executable capabilities.
Many projects speak of privacy but remain at the level of slogans; Dusk seems to be working on "compliant usable privacy," meaning that sensitive information does not need to be publicly scrutinized, yet the rules can still be verified, facilitating audits and compliance proofs. As long as these capabilities are genuinely applied, privacy will no longer just be a marketing term, but rather a fundamental module within the ecosystem. For DUSK, this means that its demand may stem not only from trading exchanges but also from ongoing on-chain interactions and application calls.
The third hard development is that the cross-ecosystem scheduling path is clearer, and the mainnet is no longer an isolated island.
Things like bidirectional bridges may seem ordinary, but they determine whether assets can move smoothly in and out, and whether users can trial the mainnet ecosystem at low costs. The clearer the rules and the more predictable the costs, the easier it becomes to transition from one-time migration to daily scheduling. Once the frequency of scheduling increases, DUSK is more likely to see stable usage demand, rather than just fluctuations driven by emotional capital.
@Dusk $DUSK #Dusk

When Bitcoin drops, the most genuine action in the market is not debating bull or bear, but relocating. Risk positions are reduced, leverage is pulled back, and money returns to a form more like cash to pause. Stablecoins during this time act like a temporary safe haven; they may not bring excitement, but they provide mobility. You may not believe the story, but you must retain the ability to retreat at any time and set out again at any moment.

Because of this, settlement efficiency suddenly becomes important during a downturn. You will be more concerned about whether transfers have friction, whether cross-chain transactions take a detour, and whether fees quietly eat into profits. Plasma's logic precisely targets this point; it is more like building a stablecoin channel, reducing the friction of basic transfers and placing value on routing, exchange, and capital management as upper-layer services. When the market is cold, users are no longer willing to pay for complex processes; networks that can make relocation smoother are more likely to accumulate genuine usage habits.

A downturn makes speculation more expensive, yet makes infrastructure more valuable. Because when the market is no longer generous, the cost of every “extra step” is amplified. If Plasma can continuously support the genuine flow of stablecoins during this phase, making cross-chain migration with fewer steps and less uncertainty, it has the opportunity to turn short-term chill into a long-term moat.

@Plasma

$XPL

#plasma

Is it a bear market now? Many people are actually not asking about the market trend, but rather where that familiar excitement has gone. Price retractions are merely a surface-level issue; the deeper change is that liquidity has become selective, narratives are no longer inclusive, and funds are more willing to remain in positions that allow for easy withdrawal. As a result, stablecoins have become a temporary haven for many, as everyone observes while looking for lower-friction transfer channels. What truly amplifies the bear market is not fear, but every cost, every wait, and every uncertain process.

In this environment, the presence of Plasma is easier to understand. It focuses on the simple yet challenging task of stablecoin settlement, striving to minimize the friction of basic transfers, while leaving commercialization to higher-value service layers. During a bear market, you will care more about paying less in fees, getting faster confirmations, and avoiding excessive cross-chain hassle, rather than listening to someone tell a distant grand story. Networks that can effectively manage these details are more likely to build real usage habits during a downturn.

So if we must make a judgment, the sentiment of a bear market is indeed present, but more importantly, the structure is changing. People are shifting from chasing prices to focusing on efficiency, from fantasies back to settlements. If Plasma can continue to prove during this phase that it can support the real liquidity of stablecoins, rather than just facilitating short-term speculation, it may turn the bear market into the beginning of a moat.

@Plasma

$XPL

#plasma

How much longer do bears have to wait? To be honest, no one can give you a reliable answer to this question. Because a bear market is not a switch; it’s more like a process where emotions and liquidity contract together. When it ends often does not depend on a single "signal," but rather on a series of conditions slowly accumulating, whether funds dare to return, whether risk appetite dares to rise, and whether narratives can regain their footing.

However, if you really want to live a bit more comfortably during a bear market, I suggest you change the question to a more practical version. In the future, during this period, are the projects I’m monitoring continuing to deliver? Are they making the critical links stronger and stronger? Are they transforming tokens from mere trading chips into real usable resources? This way, even if you guess the cycle wrong, you won’t end up with nothing.

Take the Dusk Foundation as an example; it is best viewed through this standard. It’s not the kind of project that relies on trending topics to survive every day, but rather one that is steadily completing the chassis of compliant assets that can run in the long term. If you look at its recent roadmap, it emphasizes data, settlement, and interoperability—these are essential questions for institutions, not to tell a story, but to make processes replicable, auditable, and scalable. It is also working on making privacy usable, not treating privacy as a slogan, but rather trying to make confidential transactions a capability that can be invoked at the execution layer, facilitating real application deployment. Additionally, the cross-ecosystem scheduling line, with bidirectional bridges, makes interactions between the mainnet and external ecosystems more like daily operations, with clear rules and predictable costs. Once the frequency of use increases, it will be easier for tokens to show stable usage demand. Coupled with staking and more productized participation directions, the network security budget will be more stable, and the credibility of long-term operations will also be higher.

So my answer to how long the bear market will last is very simple. You can continue to guess the timing, but a smarter approach is to pick those projects that are still solidifying their foundations and making their systems robust during the bear market. The longer the bear market lasts, the easier it is for these types of projects to widen the gap. When the market warms up, what people pursue is often not the set you shout the loudest about, but rather the one you have truly delivered.

@Dusk $DUSK #Dusk