Squatted all night just to find an entry model... First tp1, the rest hang well and went to sleep
(After rewriting) Squatted all night Finally found an entry model... First tp1 Hang the rest well and sleep Don't step on empty This market Not going all in would be a disservice to myself But don't go in full Save some bullets for the bottom What if it dips? The big players love to play this game Attention, retail investors Don't get harvested Going to sleep Tomorrow we'll see if it's a rally or a crash
The pancake's rebound this time has potential, but don't get too excited
Speaking through charts Selling pressure is strong; as it approaches 74,000, it drops The ETF is still buying, but it's all small amounts So the height is limited
The trend is the same as previously analyzed It won't fly straight up, but will grind upward with fluctuations After a surge, it’s likely to pull back around 70,000 and then bounce back
I adjusted the Fibonacci levels 0.618 is around 74,500 Based on this volume and the speed of ETF inflow, it can at most touch 78,800 before it has to take a break
Keep an eye on volume and fund flows Around March 17th Prepare for mid-term short positions
Don't chase the highs, be careful not to get trapped The big players love to see you go all in 😏
America's recent actions On the surface targeting Iran But actually aimed at China
The essence boils down to three points: 1️⃣ Deploying troops to the junction of Europe, Asia, and Africa Controlling the lifelines of minerals and energy 2️⃣ Choking off the land Silk Road Preventing the Eurasian continent from uniting 3️⃣ Disrupting the north-south passage between Russia and the Gulf Weakening the entire economic zone
Iran is just an entry point The real goal is to contain China
This situation... is even more ruthless than the harvesting of altcoins It all depends on whether China can break the deadlock
I bet Bitcoin can rise And I also bet China can win This wave must be full of faith 🇨🇳
When the war drums sound, gold rises and Bitcoin falls The market digests this wave of news over the weekend
If you ask me, this battle in the Three Kingdoms is just for show Old Trump finds a way to back down while boasting a bit How dare the Americans really engage in a long-term war
With the bad news hitting, Bitcoin only touches 63000 No crash, no waterfall At this position... short-term can try with a light position Target below 69000
Why won't it immediately be cut in half to rush to 40000? The market doesn't have enough money, the oscillation time hasn't been endured long enough The retail investors haven't fattened up, and the main players are reluctant to harvest
Just wait, the oscillation and accumulation will last until mid-March By then, liquidity will come up, combined with the bad news of no interest rate cut in March Directly a wave of sell-off Bury all the iron-headed bulls
That scene... just thinking about it makes me feel bittersweet 😏
The weekend gold contract fees are really outrageous. The spot market is closed, and the prices are stuck. Relying solely on the fees cannot anchor anything.
Want to hedge and arbitrage? No way. The spot price will only be updated on Monday morning. This high fee has to be endured for two days.
The elements are all in place. It's clear they want to harvest the on-chain contract retail traders.
I'm just watching with no positions. Whoever likes to gamble can go ahead. If it goes to zero, don't blame me for not reminding you. 😏
The market has been hijacked by news The technical aspect is temporarily invalid Let's see the situation before we talk
Figure 1 shows the order book There is a demand zone below 63k If we disregard the news Here is considered a medium-term bullish position
Figure 2 Below 63k is mainly grid orders The real big demand is at 60k The contract market is very calm There is some minor pressure at 64.5
The question arises: is it over? Will it continue to break through the demand zone downward?
Currently, the market pricing shows This wave of conflict is still within expectations It conforms to the "symbolic counterattack" model
If there are no new developments over the weekend The 60-63k range should hold up
To break the range, unexpected events are needed Blockade of the strait? Dirty bomb? Then it might go directly to the 50s
These are unpredictable The baseline scenario is: the conflict does not exceed expectations The large range will not break
I've said a lot of nonsense In the news market, the technical aspect is sidelined
Figure 3 CVD has a bad signal Spot CVD has turned with someone bottom-fishing But the price did not go up It was absorbed by selling pressure
In a bear market, this kind of divergence has a high win rate So I am still bearish Not entering the market for now
Although the gap between 65.5k and 64k will definitely be filled But I need to find a good entry point Now is not a good time for sideways trading
Continue to watch If I miss out, I miss out
Figure 4 On the options side 62k, 60k, and 58k have three major negative gamma peaks From the options on March 6 and 27 The open interest is not small
If the situation worsens It might break the previous low of 62.4k Enter the acceleration zone Stop-loss orders + negative gamma chain reaction
Vigilance cannot be lifted
I can't watch the market today In the news market, I choose to stay in cash and observe There are daily opportunities It's not about these one or two days
The Americans are causing trouble in the Middle East The army is pressing towards Iran Gold has risen, and the big pie has fallen So what happened over the weekend?
If you're not going to fight, hurry up and pull up the market Stop scaring us retail investors every day National debt has reached 38 trillion, yet you're still acting tough
Do you really think you're the world's police? Fighting this and that Your own backyard is on fire
I only care about my positions Don't affect my bottom fishing World peace? First, make the K-line look better before talking.
The era of AI has arrived Your cognition is the moat Technology, resources, execution These are the hard currencies
Stop staring at fakes all day Missing out is worse than being trapped Either go all in or stay out The centrists will be harvested sooner or later
Pay for value? Have the courage to act If you lack execution, shut up Don't be the chives of signal callers
If you can't even understand the big and small cakes What are you talking about AI moats First ask yourself When it drops by half, do you dare to buy the dip
Wake up, brother This thing is just a remote control A robot that can take over your computer No brain, only listens to commands
Those guys on Twitter are hyping again "Auto trading dog" "20% a day" "Easy profits" If you really believe it, just wait to be harvested
Essentially just a tool Relying on the AI or TG commands you subscribe to Can open browsers, run scripts, send trading commands But that's about it
It won't make money for you It won't design strategies, it won't judge the market And it definitely won't help you pick a hundred times the counterfeit
Just like using OKX's automated trading The strategy is yours, the profits and losses are yours to bear A tool is just a tool
Want to get rich off this thing? Better wash up and go to sleep early There is no printing press in the market Only sickles and leeks 😂