零下十三度

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On September 2, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a daily net outflow of 3,148 BTC (about $241 million). Of this, BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for a $201 million outflow, or 85% of the total outflows; Fidelity’s FBTC saw a $43.67 million outflow.
This is the largest single-day outflow for Bitcoin ETFs since July 31, ending the prior streak of nine consecutive days of net inflows totaling $924 million.
Spot Ethereum ETFs had a daily net inflow of 7,522 ETH (about $17.91 million), maintaining net inflows for multiple days in a row.
Over the past seven trading days, Ethereum ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of $522 million, while Bitcoin ETFs saw only $215 million in net inflows during the same period—Ethereum was 2.42 times Bitcoin.
Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding out, while Ethereum ETFs are pulling in capital. This is not money leaving the crypto market; it’s money making a structural rotation within crypto assets—from Bitcoin to Ethereum.

Today, the entire market is consolidating on reduced volume.
Bitcoin has been pulling back and forth around 7.7, just like it previously did around 6.3.
As long as it can hold steady at this level, the next phase will be a beautiful spring.
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the entire network were about $152 million, with long positions accounting for roughly $103 million.
The Fear and Greed Index rose to 71, entering the “Greed” zone, but the altcoin season index is only 32—so the rally has not yet fully spread.
That said, you also need to watch for policy-related risks. At the annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivered a hawkish speech, confirming that the 2% inflation target is a “hard constraint” and stressing that inflation has not yet met the target.
Market expectations for a rate hike in September jumped from about 36% before the speech to 57%.
CME FedWatch data shows traders’ bets on a September rate hike have risen to 57%.
At $77,000, Bitcoin is digesting the impact of Waller’s hawkish remarks.
A 57% probability of a September rate hike is the biggest knife hanging over the market.
If that knife falls, Bitcoin will very likely return to around 6.3 to continue consolidating.

Stabilizing at this current level is actually very good.
From above 80,000 down to where we are now is caused by multiple factors, but overall the size of this pullback is very healthy.
On the other hand, if the market were to surge directly to around 90,000, then the risk of a major selloff would be relatively high.
Because that level would allow many people to get out of their positions and even make a small profit, increasing the selling pressure.
Yesterday, Bitcoin saw outflows of 210 million, while Ethereum continued to have inflows.
This offset a large portion of the downward pressure, and overall the market is not badly damaged.
In August, Bitcoin had total inflows of $3.5 billion, the largest single-month inflow this year.
The market was temporarily suppressed mainly due to geopolitical conflicts.
The U.S. continues to be untrustworthy—after signing an agreement, it can tear it up right away, which to some extent further reduces America’s credibility internationally.
Strategy continued to buy in large amounts, purchasing nearly $400 million worth of Bitcoin between August 24 and 30.
This is strong support for future market activity.
If global conditions become even more uncertain, I believe gold and Bitcoin will become the assets that people chase after.
Over this period, the market will enter a boring phase again. Everyone needs to stay patient and continue to lurk, waiting for the opportunity.

Keep it up, people of the crypto circle.
Welcome to follow Thirteen—let’s ride through the bull and bear cycles together, and see through the dust and drama of the crypto world.

Because the Fed has indicated that there’s a possibility of further rate hikes, the market has once again pulled back.
Putting aside technical analysis and trends, just speaking as a novice investor, how should you invest correctly in the crypto market?
Before this round of the market rally started, Shisan didn’t know whether it would keep taking off or would pull back.
Nobody can know that—maybe Trump has some inside information.
So we can only invest in the lowest-risk way to protect what’s in your pocket—the most important thing.
If Shisan told everyone to board above 80,000, then of course you would be losing money now.
But he strongly tried to dissuade everyone.
Even if the market did take off, the principal in your wallet hasn’t decreased.
On the contrary, if you chased the price and got in now, you’re definitely losing money.
Any investment must evaluate the risks and returns behind your actions.
The current trend is not clear. Whether in terms of liquidity or news catalysts, everything is extremely uncertain right now.
It has fallen to around 6.7—can you enter now?
This definitely needs to be based on each person’s actual situation.
When investing in crypto, never try to obtain a definite answer.
Once you get trapped in a “certain answer” and can’t pull yourself out, the end result will be losing everything and going bankrupt.

Thirteen, besides the square, all other platforms have been shut down entirely—just because a couple of days ago, in an article, Thirteen said a few true things.
So brutal, brothers~
The gang is filing complaints.

At this moment, Bitcoin is around $80,700, having rebounded nearly 23,000 points from the June low of $58,000.
Long-term spot holdings: continue to hold, but don’t chase the price.
Your DCA lots bought at $65,000—if you didn’t cut at $58,000, there’s no need to move them at $80,000.
Triple tailwinds are pushing Bitcoin above $80,000: renewed value-dilution trades, continuous ETF net inflows, and shorts being squeezed.
However, Powell’s speech this Friday is the biggest source of uncertainty. Don’t go all-in because of a single bullish candle.
For short-term positioning: stay mostly on the sidelines and wait for Friday’s direction.
$80,000–$81,000 is the near-term resistance zone.
This round of rebound is driven by value-dilution trades and short-squeeze dynamics, with relatively high quality.
But Powell’s Friday speech could trigger violent volatility.
Before his speech, any heavy-position operations in any direction are basically gambling.
The right-side signal should be: Powell releases a mildly dovish signal, or price consolidates above $82,000 on increased volume.
DCA strategy: strictly follow your discipline.
The $78,000–$80,000 range is not recommended for chasing and adding.
If Powell’s remarks lead to a pullback to $75,000–$76,000, you can test with a light position.
Keep at least 20%–30% cash. Friday’s speech may cause two-way volatility of 10% or more.
This week’s key focus:
August 28 (Friday) 22:00: Jackson Hole, Powell’s speech at the Fed’s annual central bank meeting
Progress on the Iran–U.S. negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz
Statements from various parties ahead of the September 16 procedural vote on the CLARITY Act
Whether ETFs can maintain continuous net inflows

The world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin is building up its reserves.

Strategy had accumulated 840,447 bitcoins as of August 23, with a total purchase cost of $6.336 billion and an average buy price of $75,385.

At the current $80,000 level, the value of its holdings is approximately $6.64 billion, with unrealized gains already exceeding $3 billion.

But there is one key signal worth noting: Strategy hasn’t bought any Bitcoin since June 22.

In August, the company raised $3.28 billion by selling its own shares, but invested none of the funds into Bitcoin.

Instead, after increasing its existing cash reserves to $5.1 billion, it also established an additional independent U.S. dollar liquidity pool of $1.59 billion.

This funding can be used in the future to buy more Bitcoin, or to pay dividends, repay debt, repurchase shares, and so on.

Strategy CEO Phong Le emphasized that Strategy will maintain its long-term positioning as a company that “buys Bitcoin.”

Thirteen’s take: Strategy staying put around $80,000 suggests Saylor is waiting for a better entry point—possibly a pullback after the Jackson Hole speech, or volatility following the September FOMC meeting.

Once the $1.59 billion cash ammunition is deployed, it will be one of the strongest buy signals in the market.

Today’s Fear & Greed Index is at 73–74, placing it in the “greed” range.

The 7-day average is 66, and the 30-day average is 37. A month ago, it was still struggling in extreme fear (the index even dipped to 12). Now, sentiment has fully reversed.

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto derivatives market saw significant liquidation.

In the past week alone, shorts were liquidated to the tune of about $7.2 billion.

On the technical front, Bitcoin has broken through the key psychological level of $80,000. Resistance above lies at $82,000–$83,000 (the May high zone), while support below is at $78,000–$79,000 (the consolidation range before the breakout).

Altcoins are broadly following suit: Ethereum rose to $2,513, and Solana broke above $100. Capital is rotating from Bitcoin to large-cap altcoins—an encouraging sign that overall market risk appetite is recovering across the board.

Geopolitically, positive signals have arrived today.
On the 25th, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement saying that the Pakistan Army Chief of Staff and the Minister of Interior concluded a one-day visit to Iran. In discussions with their Iranian counterparts, both sides focused on preventing the situation from escalating further, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and accelerating measures to end the conflict.
This marks the first time since the U.S.-Iran conflict broke out that a third country has formally stepped in to mediate and achieved substantive progress in talks. At the same time, Iran and Oman have also restarted negotiations related to the Strait of Hormuz.
If oil prices continue to fall on expectations of the strait being reopened, it would further ease inflationary pressure, giving the Federal Reserve greater room for policy maneuvering—an indirect positive for the crypto market.
On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act finally has a clear timeline.
The CLARITY Act will face a procedural vote (cloture vote) in the Senate at 2:15 a.m. Beijing Time on September 16.
This vote is not the final gate determining whether the bill will pass; rather, it is the first hurdle that decides whether the bill can move into formal consideration on the Senate floor.
To clear the debate-ending threshold, the Senate typically needs 60 votes.
However, Polymarket’s prediction shows that the probability the bill is signed into law in 2026 is only 15%.
The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May (15–9), but since then it has stalled at the full Senate level. After summer began, opposition from some lawmakers intensified.
The Coinbase-funded group Stand With Crypto has endorsed 32 lawmakers in the House who voted in favor of the CLARITY Act. But the Senate deadlock is unlikely to be broken in the short term.
Thirteen’s assessment: the probability of the CLARITY Act successfully breaking through on September 16 is extremely low.
A 15% approval chance means the institutional turning point for the crypto industry—shifting from “enforcement regulation” to “codified law regulation”—may be delayed until 2027 or even later.
The good news, however, is that Bitcoin has already been classified as a commodity by both the SEC and the CFTC, and it is “the only token that does not require the CLARITY Act.”

After the surge, the real test is about to begin.
This week, the focus of global markets is undoubtedly the annual meeting at Jackson Hole, where Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak on August 28 (Friday) at 10:00 p.m. Beijing time.
This will be Powell’s first appearance at a global central bank annual event since taking office. Markets will be looking for clues about the Fed’s rate-hike path for September in every word he says.
A recent report from CICC notes that Powell’s earlier remarks—“letting the market price in rate hikes for the Fed”—failed to ease concerns about inflation. Combined with the ineffectiveness of interventions by the Ministry of Finance, the credibility of policy has been undermined, and U.S. Treasury yields have continued to climb.
CICC expects Powell this time to reiterate inflation risks and keep rate-hike options on the table in order to rebuild credibility.
The probability of a rate hike in September remains high.
At the Fed’s July meeting, three officials voted in favor of a rate hike, the largest number of dissenting votes since 2016.
Attention is now shifting to Powell’s speech on Friday. Market expectations are that his wording may directly determine pricing for September and subsequent meetings.
Thirteen’s view: If Powell releases a dovish signal at Jackson Hole (emphasizing that inflation is moving downward and retaining policy flexibility), Bitcoin could continue to test 85,000 and even 90,000.
If Powell reiterates a hawkish stance (emphasizing inflation risks and keeping rate-hike options), levels above 80,000 may face a rapid pullback.

In this round of violent surge, many friends are still completely confused. Shisan (13) Ma Hou Pao is here to give you an after-the-fact analysis: three forces were triggered at the same time.
First force: renewed “dollar depreciation” trading.
Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant announced that they would increase the scale of Treasury repo operations to push down long-term bond yields.
This policy directly triggered another wave of U.S. dollar selling, reigniting depreciation-trading in both Bitcoin and gold.
Bitcoin’s original design concept was to help people avoid the inflation problems caused by fiat currency depreciation and by central banks expanding money supply.
When the U.S. government itself began large-scale money printing to repurchase Treasuries, Bitcoin’s anti-depreciation properties were reactivated.
Citi raised its three-month gold price target to $4,800 per ounce. Gold and Bitcoin jumped in sync, indicating that capital is flowing into these two major anti-depreciation assets at the same time.
Second force: spot ETF inflows have been疯狂 (frenzied) for multiple consecutive days.
On August 24, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded total net inflows of $337.6 million, marking the 6th consecutive trading day of net inflows.
BlackRock’s IBIT led with a single-day net inflow of $208.9 million. Fidelity’s FBTC followed with a net inflow of $104.6 million. Ethereum spot ETFs simultaneously recorded net inflows of $115.6 million.
Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of as much as $1.92 billion, the largest single-week inflow since Bitcoin hit its cycle high in October last year—showing that institutional capital is pouring back into the crypto market at an unprecedented pace.
Third force: a targeted bloodbath of shorts.
Over the past week, roughly $7.2 billion in leveraged short positions in the crypto market were forced to liquidate. In just three days, Bitcoin surged more than 20%, the largest rebound since 2023.
But Shisan must remind everyone of one thing: this rally is mainly a short-squeeze, not a surge in new buying orders entering the market in large quantities.
Forced covering by shorts pushed prices higher, but rallies driven by “passive buying” often lack the same staying power as rallies driven by “active buying.”
Keep this in mind.

Today’s market action gives the bulls a reason to hold their heads high—and leaves the bears completely stunned.
During the Asian trading session, Bitcoin surged violently, breaking through the $80,000 mark in one move. It topped out at $81,257, the highest since mid-May this year.
As of the time of writing, BTC is around $80,700–$80,800, up more than 4% over the past 24 hours, with a cumulative gain of nearly 26% over the last 7 days. Ethereum also climbed in sync to $2,513, reaching its highest level since January this year.
Solana broke above $100, rising 7.5% intraday.
Over the past 24 hours, the entire crypto market has erupted.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index today stands at 73–74, having returned to the “Greed” zone after a lapse of several months.
The 7-day average is 66, and the 30-day average is 37.
One month ago, the market was still struggling in extreme fear; now, sentiment has completely flipped.
Bitcoin has rebounded from the June low of $58,000 all the way back above $80,000. In two months, it’s rallied nearly 40%.
What on earth has happened in this magical world of crypto?
Actually, in earlier articles, Shisan has already made it clear: this is the rule of how crypto prices rise and fall. The subdued market over the past year or so—Shisan never considered it a bear market.
It was only a brief dip in a bull run.
When the bull turns its head up again, it lifts in an instant. It won’t give retail investors any time to react. You won’t know whether you should get on—or even dare to get off. It’s incredibly uncomfortable.
Take a look at the retail investors across the whole market right now: if they don’t have any positions in hand, are they going in or not?
No one can give you a definite answer, because if Shisan tells you to get in and then it drops afterward, Shisan will instantly become the villain.
So, as stated in the earlier article, stabilize first. Even if it truly takes off from here, we can still make money getting in on the right side.

Whenever a bear market comes, we see countless groups demanding rights protection.
In this more-than-a-year’s dull market, everyone must have seen plenty of them too.
People like “Thirteen” who can still be here talking to everyone in the same way now are few.
Many so-called group-management platforms that used to provide signals are now involved in all kinds of rights-protection claims.
But can you find him?
Obviously not.
He changes to another ID and comes back—maybe you’ll even fall into the same trap again.
Everyone can take a look at some of the bigger bloggers now; many of them are in Dubai.
It’s not that they want to leave their homeland behind—it’s just that they have to.
Over there, they can do what they want, and their own IP can keep running.
Even if they’re losing money with their followers, there’s always some people who end up profiting.
Of course, there are many other reasons for going abroad. As for us, once you grow big, all kinds of trouble will come looking for you.
Back then, there was a relatively big blogger who was doing crypto education and training—did it on a large scale, charged high fees, and made a lot of money.
So what happened?
Someone maliciously filed complaints and reports, and then they were subjected to all kinds of inspections.
Although the person wasn’t really affected, the IP was gone, and the company had to disappear from the annals of the crypto world.
That’s the cruelty of the crypto market.
So “Thirteen” has been taking every step very carefully.
If you can’t grow big, then I’ll just manage by laying back my pace—just chat in articles and keep things light. During this period, I even haven’t updated, to avoid being targeted by anything “unclean.”
Before “Thirteen” got involved with fans—during the time when the market was good—there were nearly ten friends whose capital all exceeded one million.
They trusted “Thirteen,” handed the funds over directly to “Thirteen,” and asked him to help manage trading.
“Thirteen” refused.
Given the market at the time and “Thirteen”’s investment strategy, they wouldn’t have lost money either.
But among them, there must inevitably be 1–2 people who end up filing for rights protection claims—or even slandering “Thirteen.”
That’s human nature.

Leveraging might be the fastest way to make money.
But it’s also the fastest way to lose it.
In the crypto world, there are many influencers who like to post screenshots of their trades—publishing the high-leverage trades they open in real time so everyone can see how much they’ve earned.
There are 100x, 50x.
It attracts countless followers who worship what they see—his amounts are enough to ignite the most狂热 hearts of retail traders.
If you follow him to trade with leverage, of course you either need to register using his link, or you need to pay a hefty fee.
But please trust me: if he can make money, you’ll find it very hard to.
On one hand, the trades he’s able to show are only the ones that survive out of dozens of trades. The ones you’re allowed to see are all profitable; the ones you don’t see are actually losing trades.
Of course, they have rich trading experience and can cut losses in time. In that case, even the losses aren’t that big—because any profitable trade can be kept.
And as for you putting real money on the line to follow him, your accuracy is basically no different from flipping a coin—it’s about 55/45.
Especially when all sorts of technical theories are already failing in today’s market.
On the other hand, it’s about risk tolerance. He can find all kinds of ways to take your money, while you can only work honestly to earn.
He can accept losses of tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands or more—can you?
With the same strategy, he can stay calm, but you can only panic and cut out of the position.
That’s why in the 13圈, we never let everyone go heavy on leverage—we only let you use 5% of your capital to play around.

Zhang Shi has said in articles countless times—truly countless times.
When the market takes off from the bottom, it catches everyone off guard.
Just like the market these past few days: two days ago it was still stuck at 63k, neither dead nor alive, and then suddenly it had to push straight toward 80k.
Zhang Shi has been through several bull-and-bear cycles in the crypto world, and he has seen plenty of this kind of bizarre market behavior.
Please, be sure to maintain confidence. No matter how the market moves—whether it’s the U.S. stock market, the crypto market, or other capital markets—behind it there is an invisible hand controlling everything.
They influence the market’s trajectory through various legitimate ways. This trend will torment retail investors and make them lose money, but at the same time it gives retail investors hope, sucking blood from them endlessly.
For example, in the crypto world—those of you who have lost money in crypto—can you really manage to exit the crypto market and never get involved again?
Almost none of you!
After they lose everything in the bear market, in the next few years they work hard to earn money. Then, unfortunately, it’s already time for the bull market: Bitcoin surges violently, and all kinds of altcoins also skyrocket.
Everyone is making money. At this moment, retail investors can hardly control themselves.
When these retail investors take their hard-earned money and rush in at the bull market’s highs, they will make money in a short period of time—and then slowly start to get inflated.
After all, in normal jobs, one day’s pay is only a few hundred. But in those few days in crypto, the money you can earn each day is ten or even dozens of times what you earn from work.
And you don’t even have to do anything.
At this point, many people begin to fantasize about buying a car and buying a house.
But the prerequisite is to add more chips—or to go straight in on leverage.

What many people want to know now is how the next market move for “13” will look.
Do you all remember what 13 previously told everyone—the Double Peaks theory?
Imagine a double-humped camel.
This round of movement is very likely to unfold like this: first it surges upward, then it falls back into a low valley, then it rises again, and only after that will it fully enter a bear market.
So is this a bear market now?
13 believes this doesn’t count as a bear market. The real bear market is ten times more terrifying than what we’re seeing now.
The crypto market is being affected too much by external forces.
Of course, whatever happens in the future is just prediction—don’t go all-in on any single forecast, no matter who it comes from.
So in the end, it’s all about controlling your position size to manage risks in the crypto space.
As I always say: be able to attack when conditions are favorable and retreat with protection. When the market rises, you can get your meat; if the market crashes violently, you’ll have cash as a safety floor.
If the market develops along its current path—once the U.S. bill is passed, the U.S.–Iran conflict is completely over, and the rate-cutting cycle arrives—then in the first half of next year, there’s a good chance we’ll see a second wave of peaks.
At that time, I hope 13’s fans will all be there.
When it happens, I hope everyone follows 13’s rhythm: don’t be greedy, and don’t think about taking the very last copper coin from the market. Be decisive and lock in profits.
Recently, everyone has felt quite hopeless about the market. Please remember this: every market will rise and fall—it won’t keep dropping forever, and it won’t keep rising forever.
Right now can be said to be the best period to enter gradually and bottom-fish.
Conversely, it’s also the period when the “newbies/grass” would never dare to enter the crypto market.
At the moment, only professional investors, institutions, and big players are quietly bottom-fishing.
When a bull market arrives, they will harvest the newbies who got on the train.
It’s the same in any investment market. Even if 13 repeats this a hundred thousand times in articles, this rule won’t change.
13 only hopes that the friends around 13 can avoid the fate of being harvested.
Truly take control of your wealth in the crypto world.

Binance will delist six tokens—ACX, HFT, PIVX, PYR, VANRY, and VIC—on August 17.
For a long time, “Thirteen” has hoped that Dahuang doesn’t touch junk coins.
There are many reasons for this delisting—some are elaborate and varied—but the fundamental reason is that this stuff is essentially trash with no value.
Many gamblers are especially fond of these coins, and even some people hold them in large positions.
If you don’t lose money, who will?
This time, it’s only these few coins that are being delisted. Back in the last-to-last bear market, when the market was down, dozens of coins were delisted all at once.
Including the then-popular pai.
Almost every time the market enters an undervalued phase, a large batch of junk coins gets gradually kicked out by exchanges.
These coins can’t create any value for exchanges anymore.
If there are sponsors behind these coins who keep hyping them, the exchanges definitely won’t delist them—at most, they might delist a little bit. Once these coins are delisted, they’ll disappear forever into the long river of history.
In the entire crypto world, more than 80% of coin types are junk and have no value. It’s just that someone keeps hyping them, there’s sponsorship and backing, and the consensus of the “bagholders” is what allows them to exist.
So for some less-mainstream coins, don’t hold them long term. You should enter and exit quickly—don’t have any sentimental attachment.
In the future, exchanges will list many new coins. When the market is doing well, these coins will collectively come on stage. Everyone can “steal a chicken” and run—just don’t be greedy.
This includes the Trump coin from before. At the time, there were people in the “Thirteen” circle who even challenged “Thirteen,” believing that this coin would rise to 100 U per unit.
So please don’t ever trust the wealth-myth of “a hundredfold” or “a thousandfold.” That kind of bonus has already disappeared.

If you see a message like this on a plane, do not click the verification link under any circumstances. If you enter your mobile number and the verification code, and your exchange account is also registered with your mobile number, then all the coins in your account will be stolen in an instant.
Please be extremely careful.