danrobinson
11 Posts
danrobinson
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Trying to get o3 to write a paper for me and it got stuck on a pretty basic misunderstanding of AMMs and path dependency
So we're now 10 messages deep into an argument about it
Incredibly addictive, this will replace Twitter
Trying to get o3 to write a paper for me and it got stuck on a pretty basic misunderstanding of AMMs and path dependency
So we're now 10 messages deep into an argument about it
Incredibly addictive, this will replace Twitter
So we're now 10 messages deep into an argument about it
Incredibly addictive, this will replace Twitter
6
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The deeper you get into DEX design, the sillier it feels to be dogmatic about any of it
Everything depends on fiddly microstructure details
The deeper you get into DEX design, the sillier it feels to be dogmatic about any of it
Everything depends on fiddly microstructure details
Everything depends on fiddly microstructure details
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Is there any way to do an onchain prediction market for p(doom)?
Given the impossibility of settlement in the apocalypse and the difficulty of credit in the non-apocalypse case
Is there any way to do an onchain prediction market for p(doom)?
Given the impossibility of settlement in the apocalypse and the difficulty of credit in the non-apocalypse case
Given the impossibility of settlement in the apocalypse and the difficulty of credit in the non-apocalypse case
121
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“Don’t use chains with centralized sequencers, since someday they might subtly extract value from you
Instead use decentralized sequencers that are guaranteed to extract maximum value from you, today”
“Don’t use chains with centralized sequencers, since someday they might subtly extract value from you
Instead use decentralized sequencers that are guaranteed to extract maximum value from you, today”
Instead use decentralized sequencers that are guaranteed to extract maximum value from you, today”
177
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I don’t think whether a sequencer is decentralized matters too much
What matters most is what rules they follow, and particularly whether they use their power to hurt users or extract value
You can have extractive decentralized sequencers, or nonextractive centralized ones
I don’t think whether a sequencer is decentralized matters too much
What matters most is what rules they follow, and particularly whether they use their power to hurt users or extract value
You can have extractive decentralized sequencers, or nonextractive centralized ones
What matters most is what rules they follow, and particularly whether they use their power to hurt users or extract value
You can have extractive decentralized sequencers, or nonextractive centralized ones
480
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Any researchers at Solana Accelerate who want to meet up? DMs are open
Any researchers at Solana Accelerate who want to meet up? DMs are open
8
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Here's a mystery:
AMMs seem to be much more profitable when buying ETH than selling it
Look at how these cumulative markouts (grouped by direction) diverge over time
The pool made >$20m from its ETH buys, but lost >$24m from its ETH sells!
Any theories?
Here's a mystery:
AMMs seem to be much more profitable when buying ETH than selling it
Look at how these cumulative markouts (grouped by direction) diverge over time
The pool made >$20m from its ETH buys, but lost >$24m from its ETH sells!
Any theories?
AMMs seem to be much more profitable when buying ETH than selling it
Look at how these cumulative markouts (grouped by direction) diverge over time
The pool made >$20m from its ETH buys, but lost >$24m from its ETH sells!
Any theories?
6
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These are the cumulative 15m markouts for the Fluid ETH/USDC pool.
It has bled out $8.5m in EV, and its trades were unprofitable all the time, not just during rebalances.
There are no profits to make up for the costs from rebalancing. The pool never makes money in expectation.
These are the cumulative 15m markouts for the Fluid ETH/USDC pool.
It has bled out $8.5m in EV, and its trades were unprofitable all the time, not just during rebalances.
There are no profits to make up for the costs from rebalancing. The pool never makes money in expectation.
It has bled out $8.5m in EV, and its trades were unprofitable all the time, not just during rebalances.
There are no profits to make up for the costs from rebalancing. The pool never makes money in expectation.
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124
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Respect for @0xfluid posting this post-mortem
But their proposed solution—to make liquidity more concentrated—seems like the wrong choice
The pool is not just losing money during rebalances. It is losing money constantly—AFAICT, fees do not make up for arb losses
So concentrating liquidity more would be a double whammy—faster loss to arbs between rebalances, and more frequent rebalances
Respect for @0xfluid posting this post-mortem
But their proposed solution—to make liquidity more concentrated—seems like the wrong choice
The pool is not just losing money during rebalances. It is losing money constantly—AFAICT, fees do not make up for arb losses
So concentrating liquidity more would be a double whammy—faster loss to arbs between rebalances, and more frequent rebalances
But their proposed solution—to make liquidity more concentrated—seems like the wrong choice
The pool is not just losing money during rebalances. It is losing money constantly—AFAICT, fees do not make up for arb losses
So concentrating liquidity more would be a double whammy—faster loss to arbs between rebalances, and more frequent rebalances
125
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Fast trustless bridges usually require payments to be locked up in escrow
But what if users could just send to the relayer—trustlessly, and at a fraction of the capital and gas cost of the escrowed model?
Introducing Across Prime, a new design from me @hal2001 @mrice32
🧵
Fast trustless bridges usually require payments to be locked up in escrow
But what if users could just send to the relayer—trustlessly, and at a fraction of the capital and gas cost of the escrowed model?
Introducing Across Prime, a new design from me @hal2001 @mrice32
🧵
But what if users could just send to the relayer—trustlessly, and at a fraction of the capital and gas cost of the escrowed model?
Introducing Across Prime, a new design from me @hal2001 @mrice32
🧵
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Every Ethereum researcher is focused on MEV when their biggest problem is scaling
Every Solana researcher is focused on scaling when their biggest problem is MEV
Every Ethereum researcher is focused on MEV when their biggest problem is scaling
Every Solana researcher is focused on scaling when their biggest problem is MEV
Every Solana researcher is focused on scaling when their biggest problem is MEV
8
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USBitcoinETFsRecord$527MInflows
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🚨 **$527 MILLION FLOWS INTO US BITCOIN ETFs — IS INSTITUTIONAL MONEY MAKING A COMEBACK?**
💰 **Wall Street’s Bitcoin appetite is back in the spotlight!**
A reported **$527 million inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs** would be a significant signal for the crypto market, showing renewed interest in regulated Bitcoin investment products.
But here’s the key point: ETF inflows matter because they help investors track demand through traditional financial markets. When sustained net inflows occur, they can support buying pressure on Bitcoin. However, one strong session alone does not guarantee a rally.
📊 **What should traders watch next?**
🔹 **Bitcoin price action:** Can BTC turn resistance into support?
🔹 **ETF flow consistency:** Will investors continue adding capital over the coming sessions?
🔹 **Market conditions:** Inflation data, Federal Reserve expectations, and broader risk sentiment could influence the next move.
⚠️ **Important:** The $527 million figure needs confirmation against the specific reporting date and flow source. Recent October data has also shown substantial ETF outflows, so this headline should not automatically be interpreted as a lasting trend.
🔥 **My takeaway:** Follow the money, but confirm the trend.
Sustained inflows combined with a convincing BTC breakout would provide a stronger bullish signal than ETF headlines alone.
👇 **Your opinion:** Can institutional demand push Bitcoin toward a new high, or will selling pressure return?
#USBitcoinETFsRecord$527MInflows $BTC
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