奈翻bit-敬畏市场

After today’s sell-off, I’m guessing quite a few guys holding long positions got completely blindsided. In the past 24 hours, 330,000 traders were liquidated across the market, and 90% of them were long. Calling it a bloodbath is no exaggeration.
Let’s skip the fluff and get straight to the useful stuff—here’s my intraday futures trading plan for tonight through tomorrow’s daytime session. I’ll also break down where the market could be headed over the next week and month. These are strategies I’d use in my own live trading—no corporate jargon or empty talk. You’ll be able to put them into practice as soon as you’re done reading.
First, let’s set the tone for today: the market is severely oversold in the short term, so a technical rebound is highly likely. But the broader trend has already weakened—a rebound is not a reversal. Keep intraday trades quick in and out; don’t get attached to a bigger picture, and don’t blindly buy the dip.

$BTC Aggressive: Scale in short in the 78100-79500 range, stop-loss at 83000, add to shorts if we break below 76400. Conservative: Go short if we break below 76400.
$ETH Aggressive: Go short as we approach 2150, scale in with multiple short positions, stop-loss at 2200, looking for a break below previous lows. Conservative: Watch the 2150-2200 range, if it breaks and drops back to 2150, then go short, aiming for a break below previous lows.
This post is proof, the bulls' last dance. The bears are about to take victory!

Today's concept learning: What is a descending triangle convergence pattern?
Converging triangles are a typical feature in a downtrend
Price action: highs are sequentially lower, lows are sequentially higher, with narrowing volatility, forming a converging triangle.
Volume changes: during the formation of the pattern, volume gradually shrinks, reflecting strong market indecision.
Statistical probability: about 75% chance that the existing downtrend continues, with only a 25% chance of a reversal.
Key points for market judgment
1. Breakout direction determines the trend
If there's a valid breakdown below the lower boundary (closing price confirmed below the lower line), it's usually seen as a signal for trend continuation, considered a sell or watch opportunity.

Position: Currently, the long position in Ethereum is around 2600, and the short position in Bitcoin has been closed around 115000, near 117000, missing the lowest point.
Viewpoint: Today's market still mainly looks bearish on the pullback.
Reason: Considering the previous instances of pin bars and the strength of the rebound in the market, it is highly likely that there will be a second test after a pin bar. The essence of candlesticks is: rise - test resistance - fall - test support - rise, repeating this cycle.
Look at the larger scale and operate on a smaller scale. The daily closing level is not ideal, proving that the rebound strength is not large, and the probability of a one-sided upward trend is very small. There is a high probability that it will test the bottom support again and then fluctuate upwards. Friends who missed the opportunity must not open positions recklessly; trading is mostly about waiting, waiting for the key points before making a play.

Conclusion:
1. Trading first requires accepting stop losses and rejecting holding positions; holding positions = liquidation.
2. Don't blame yourself for trading failures; failure is normal, and there are no perpetual earners.
3. Control the position size for each contract to about 3%. The longer you survive, the more you can earn.
4. Don't go all in, don't fomo; develop your own trading system, then find suitable bloggers to strengthen your analysis and continuously improve your trading system.
5. Trading is not complicated: candlesticks, horizontal lines, trend lines, Fibonacci. Understanding volume and price, divergences, and Fibonacci is enough. This is the trading system I have formed since entering the market, for reference only.