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Two years past the halving and this cycle just isn’t matching the pace we’ve seen before.
Since April 2024, $BTC has only climbed modestly from around $64K to the low $70Kswhile earlier cycles had already delivered explosive gains by this point.
After peaking near $126K in late 2025, price pulled back hard and has mostly been stuck in a range since.
The dynamic feels different this time.
Maybe capital is getting pulled into AI. Maybe macro uncertainty is keeping big players on the sidelines.
Or maybe Bitcoin’s size now naturally limits those aggressive runs we were used to when it was much smaller.
Is this just a slower cycle or are the days of massive multiples behind us?
Since April 2024, $BTC has only climbed modestly from around $64K to the low $70Kswhile earlier cycles had already delivered explosive gains by this point.
After peaking near $126K in late 2025, price pulled back hard and has mostly been stuck in a range since.
The dynamic feels different this time.
Maybe capital is getting pulled into AI. Maybe macro uncertainty is keeping big players on the sidelines.
Or maybe Bitcoin’s size now naturally limits those aggressive runs we were used to when it was much smaller.
Is this just a slower cycle or are the days of massive multiples behind us?
Michael Saylor has created a structure where Strategy now carries about a $1.2B annual dividend burden, despite the business not generating operating profits.
And that figure is still rising as more preferred stock gets issued.
Since January 2025, around $11.3B has been raised through different preferred series, with yields between 8% and 11.5%.
The annual payouts break down roughly like this:
STRC: ~$731M
STRD: ~$135M
STRF: ~$128M
STRK: ~$112M
STRE: ~$89M
Total: about $1.2B per year in cash obligations.
The core software business doesn’t cover this it actually posted negative free cash flow last year. So funding relies heavily on continued capital raising.
There’s also a $2.25B cash reserve in place, but it acts more like a buffer than a long-term solution, especially with ongoing issuance.
If additional preferred stock is issued, the annual obligation could move toward $4B.
The key issue is that Bitcoin doesn’t generate cash flow, while these payouts require consistent cash regardless of market conditions.
That leaves limited options: sell $BTC , issue more equity, or adjust payments each with clear trade-offs.
With MSTR trading below its Bitcoin NAV, new issuance can also become dilutive.
In the end, it’s a structure where volatile assets are being used to support fixed, recurring cash obligations.
#CryptoMarketRebounds
#SECEasesBrokerRulesforCertainDeFiInterfaces
And that figure is still rising as more preferred stock gets issued.
Since January 2025, around $11.3B has been raised through different preferred series, with yields between 8% and 11.5%.
The annual payouts break down roughly like this:
STRC: ~$731M
STRD: ~$135M
STRF: ~$128M
STRK: ~$112M
STRE: ~$89M
Total: about $1.2B per year in cash obligations.
The core software business doesn’t cover this it actually posted negative free cash flow last year. So funding relies heavily on continued capital raising.
There’s also a $2.25B cash reserve in place, but it acts more like a buffer than a long-term solution, especially with ongoing issuance.
If additional preferred stock is issued, the annual obligation could move toward $4B.
The key issue is that Bitcoin doesn’t generate cash flow, while these payouts require consistent cash regardless of market conditions.
That leaves limited options: sell $BTC , issue more equity, or adjust payments each with clear trade-offs.
With MSTR trading below its Bitcoin NAV, new issuance can also become dilutive.
In the end, it’s a structure where volatile assets are being used to support fixed, recurring cash obligations.
#CryptoMarketRebounds
#SECEasesBrokerRulesforCertainDeFiInterfaces
$XRP derivatives activity is heating up again futures flows exploded nearly 300% to around $46M as price pushed higher off the rebound.
Liquidations tell the story clearly: about $1.59M in shorts got wiped out from $1.79M total in the last 24 hours, showing how fast bears were forced out as momentum flipped.
More than $10M worth of XRP left exchanges, pointing to holders moving coins into cold storage or simply stepping away from immediate selling tightening available supply.
You’ve got a mix of rising participation, forced short exits, and declining exchange balances. That kind of setup typically leans bullish, especially in the early stages of a move.
But it’s not one-sided.
Open interest climbing alongside price can be a double-edged sword. If longs start to dominate too heavily, the market becomes crowded, and that’s where things tend to slow down. Instead of a clean continuation, price often shifts into a choppy range to shake out late entries and reset positioning.
Momentum is back, structure looks supportive, and the underlying signals favor upside but if positioning overheats, expect a pause before any real expansion continues.
#CryptoMarketRebounds
#SECEasesBrokerRulesforCertainDeFiInterfaces
Liquidations tell the story clearly: about $1.59M in shorts got wiped out from $1.79M total in the last 24 hours, showing how fast bears were forced out as momentum flipped.
More than $10M worth of XRP left exchanges, pointing to holders moving coins into cold storage or simply stepping away from immediate selling tightening available supply.
You’ve got a mix of rising participation, forced short exits, and declining exchange balances. That kind of setup typically leans bullish, especially in the early stages of a move.
But it’s not one-sided.
Open interest climbing alongside price can be a double-edged sword. If longs start to dominate too heavily, the market becomes crowded, and that’s where things tend to slow down. Instead of a clean continuation, price often shifts into a choppy range to shake out late entries and reset positioning.
Momentum is back, structure looks supportive, and the underlying signals favor upside but if positioning overheats, expect a pause before any real expansion continues.
#CryptoMarketRebounds
#SECEasesBrokerRulesforCertainDeFiInterfaces
Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 have already wiped out intraday losses even after headlines around the Iran blockade, the ceasefire breakdown, and oil holding above $101.
WSJ reports suggest US–Iran negotiations could potentially resume in the coming days, which helped stabilize sentiment across risk assets.
$BTC also initially dipped on the news but quickly recovered alongside equities, reinforcing the broader pattern of resilience in markets despite escalating geopolitical headlines.
What’s becoming more noticeable is that markets are no longer sustaining downside reactions to negative developments.
This mirrors what we saw in February when the conflict first intensified Bitcoin dropped on day one, but every subsequent escalation, from additional strikes to Strait of Hormuz tensions and failed talks, was followed by recoveries rather than continued selling.
When repeated bad news stops driving prices lower, it has historically aligned with late-cycle behavior where selling pressure begins to fade.
On the energy front, the reported blockade is said to focus specifically on Iranian ports and vessels, while allowing non-Iranian shipping to continue through the Strait.
Since Iran’s oil exports were already significantly reduced earlier in the conflict, the global supply-demand picture hasn’t shifted much, with the direct impact largely contained to Iran itself.
#USMilitaryToBlockadeStraitOfHormuz
#JustinSunVsWLFI
WSJ reports suggest US–Iran negotiations could potentially resume in the coming days, which helped stabilize sentiment across risk assets.
$BTC also initially dipped on the news but quickly recovered alongside equities, reinforcing the broader pattern of resilience in markets despite escalating geopolitical headlines.
What’s becoming more noticeable is that markets are no longer sustaining downside reactions to negative developments.
This mirrors what we saw in February when the conflict first intensified Bitcoin dropped on day one, but every subsequent escalation, from additional strikes to Strait of Hormuz tensions and failed talks, was followed by recoveries rather than continued selling.
When repeated bad news stops driving prices lower, it has historically aligned with late-cycle behavior where selling pressure begins to fade.
On the energy front, the reported blockade is said to focus specifically on Iranian ports and vessels, while allowing non-Iranian shipping to continue through the Strait.
Since Iran’s oil exports were already significantly reduced earlier in the conflict, the global supply-demand picture hasn’t shifted much, with the direct impact largely contained to Iran itself.
#USMilitaryToBlockadeStraitOfHormuz
#JustinSunVsWLFI
BREAKING: Trump claims the United States has completely destroyed Iran’s naval forces, stating that around 158 Iranian warships have been sunk and now rest at the bottom of the sea.
He also warns that the remaining Iranian fast-attack vessels are still active but not considered a major threat.
According to his statement, any of those ships that approach the US blockade will be “immediately eliminated,” as tensions escalate around the maritime exclusion zone.
#USDCFreezeDebate
#USMilitaryToBlockadeStraitOfHormuz
He also warns that the remaining Iranian fast-attack vessels are still active but not considered a major threat.
According to his statement, any of those ships that approach the US blockade will be “immediately eliminated,” as tensions escalate around the maritime exclusion zone.
#USDCFreezeDebate
#USMilitaryToBlockadeStraitOfHormuz
BREAKING: Iran is reportedly still weighing the possibility of halting uranium enrichment as part of a broader effort to end the ongoing conflict, according to NYP reporter Caitlin Doornbos.
The Islamabad negotiations are said to have stalled not due to a firm rejection from Tehran, but because the delegation was unable to securely consult with top decision-makers in Iran.
Security constraints reportedly prevented direct communication with authorities in Tehran, forcing Iranian officials to pause and potentially return home to seek final approval before any agreement could be confirmed.
#USDCFreezeDebate
#USMilitaryToBlockadeStraitOfHormuz
The Islamabad negotiations are said to have stalled not due to a firm rejection from Tehran, but because the delegation was unable to securely consult with top decision-makers in Iran.
Security constraints reportedly prevented direct communication with authorities in Tehran, forcing Iranian officials to pause and potentially return home to seek final approval before any agreement could be confirmed.
#USDCFreezeDebate
#USMilitaryToBlockadeStraitOfHormuz
Charles Hoskinson isn’t convinced hype events will move the needle for $ADA .
Instead of spending big on conferences, he’s pushing for something more long-term building physical community hubs around the world to bring new users into the ecosystem.
This comes after a proposal to allocate 14 million #ADA for major crypto events got shut down by the community.
Several DReps, including Cardano Cypherpunks, HOSKY, Cerkaryn, and Goofycris, voted against it signaling a preference for sustainable growth over short-term exposure.
#USMilitaryToBlockadeStraitOfHormuz
Instead of spending big on conferences, he’s pushing for something more long-term building physical community hubs around the world to bring new users into the ecosystem.
This comes after a proposal to allocate 14 million #ADA for major crypto events got shut down by the community.
Several DReps, including Cardano Cypherpunks, HOSKY, Cerkaryn, and Goofycris, voted against it signaling a preference for sustainable growth over short-term exposure.
#USMilitaryToBlockadeStraitOfHormuz
$DOT just took a sharp hit, dropping around 5% within minutes and breaking through short-term support like it wasn’t there.
Reports suggest a possible exploit where 1B DOT was allegedly minted and quickly dumped, with proceeds around ~108 ETH (~$237K).
Market impact was immediate:
• ~$728K in leveraged longs wiped out
• Altcoins starting to wobble
• Traders flipping cautious fast
The structure now looks fragile in the short term, with sentiment turning risk-off.
Either we see a relief bounce here… or this move starts dragging further than expected.
#USMilitaryToBlockadeStraitOfHormuz
#JustinSunVsWLFI
Reports suggest a possible exploit where 1B DOT was allegedly minted and quickly dumped, with proceeds around ~108 ETH (~$237K).
Market impact was immediate:
• ~$728K in leveraged longs wiped out
• Altcoins starting to wobble
• Traders flipping cautious fast
The structure now looks fragile in the short term, with sentiment turning risk-off.
Either we see a relief bounce here… or this move starts dragging further than expected.
#USMilitaryToBlockadeStraitOfHormuz
#JustinSunVsWLFI
Been watching $HYPE wallets closely and something stood out 👀
Even with this small dip, big players are actually closing out some of their shorts instead of adding more.
Kinda tells you they’re not too convinced this pullback has legs… feels more like a temporary shakeout than a real trend shift.
#SamAltmanSpeaksOutAfterAllegedAttack
Even with this small dip, big players are actually closing out some of their shorts instead of adding more.
Kinda tells you they’re not too convinced this pullback has legs… feels more like a temporary shakeout than a real trend shift.
#SamAltmanSpeaksOutAfterAllegedAttack
Roughly $3.4B worth of short positions are at risk if $BTC rallies another 10%.
On the flip side, a 10% drop would wipe out about $5.4B in longs.
With more leverage stacked on the long side, the market looks heavier to the downside in the near term that’s where the pressure is concentrated right now.
#US-IranTalksFailToReachAgreement
On the flip side, a 10% drop would wipe out about $5.4B in longs.
With more leverage stacked on the long side, the market looks heavier to the downside in the near term that’s where the pressure is concentrated right now.
#US-IranTalksFailToReachAgreement
The Chinese Yuan just pushed to its strongest level against the US Dollar in roughly three years a notable shift in momentum.
What makes it more interesting is the timing.
Right after Donald Trump claimed China is currently taking the biggest economic hit globally, the currency is doing the exact opposite of what that narrative suggests.
#US-IranTalksFailToReachAgreement
#SamAltmanSpeaksOutAfterAllegedAttack
What makes it more interesting is the timing.
Right after Donald Trump claimed China is currently taking the biggest economic hit globally, the currency is doing the exact opposite of what that narrative suggests.
#US-IranTalksFailToReachAgreement
#SamAltmanSpeaksOutAfterAllegedAttack
🇧🇾 Belarus is opening the door wider to crypto.
The National Bank is reportedly considering allowing crypto-focused banks to work with roughly 25 digital assets, including major coins like $BTC and various stablecoins.
If implemented, this could mark a notable step toward integrating crypto into the country’s financial system rather than keeping it on the sidelines.
The National Bank is reportedly considering allowing crypto-focused banks to work with roughly 25 digital assets, including major coins like $BTC and various stablecoins.
If implemented, this could mark a notable step toward integrating crypto into the country’s financial system rather than keeping it on the sidelines.
$ETH is basically coiling around a major long-term level near $2.1K, and it’s been anything but clean lately.
If price holds this region on a weekly basis, the broader range between $2.1K and $2.8K becomes the key battlefield.
Momentum isn’t really convincing yet though. Bulls need to reclaim that ~$2.4K area to show real intent otherwise, this just looks like more sideways noise before the next decisive move.
#HighestCPISince2022
If price holds this region on a weekly basis, the broader range between $2.1K and $2.8K becomes the key battlefield.
Momentum isn’t really convincing yet though. Bulls need to reclaim that ~$2.4K area to show real intent otherwise, this just looks like more sideways noise before the next decisive move.
#HighestCPISince2022
Something bigger is happening under the surface.
Bhutan just shifted another 319 $BTC … not long after unloading over 1,300 BTC previously.
That’s not random movement. That’s calculated flow.
We’re starting to see a different class of participants step in not traders, not typical whales, but state-level players reallocating capital.
And it’s not isolated.
Across the board, large wallets tied to institutions and sovereign entities are becoming more active, quietly rotating positions.
This kind of pressure doesn’t come with hype.
No headlines. No retail panic.
It reflects directly in price action.
By the time most people realize what’s going on, the market has already adjusted.
Right now isn’t about noise it’s about scale.
And the size moving through the market deserves attention.
#HighestCPISince2022
Bhutan just shifted another 319 $BTC … not long after unloading over 1,300 BTC previously.
That’s not random movement. That’s calculated flow.
We’re starting to see a different class of participants step in not traders, not typical whales, but state-level players reallocating capital.
And it’s not isolated.
Across the board, large wallets tied to institutions and sovereign entities are becoming more active, quietly rotating positions.
This kind of pressure doesn’t come with hype.
No headlines. No retail panic.
It reflects directly in price action.
By the time most people realize what’s going on, the market has already adjusted.
Right now isn’t about noise it’s about scale.
And the size moving through the market deserves attention.
#HighestCPISince2022
People are talking about Satoshi’s identity again.
A recent report from The New York Times points to Adam Back as a strong candidate for Satoshi Nakamoto.
The argument leans on his early work with Hashcash in the late ’90s, his ties to the cypherpunk movement, and similarities in writing style.
Former #Ripple CTO David Schwartz reacted in a way that made it sound like the mystery might finally be settled.
Back, though, pushed back on that. He denied the claims and said Satoshi staying anonymous is actually a good thing for Bitcoin.
#BinanceWalletLaunchesPredictionMarkets
A recent report from The New York Times points to Adam Back as a strong candidate for Satoshi Nakamoto.
The argument leans on his early work with Hashcash in the late ’90s, his ties to the cypherpunk movement, and similarities in writing style.
Former #Ripple CTO David Schwartz reacted in a way that made it sound like the mystery might finally be settled.
Back, though, pushed back on that. He denied the claims and said Satoshi staying anonymous is actually a good thing for Bitcoin.
#BinanceWalletLaunchesPredictionMarkets
$BTC still looks like it’s setting up for a potential wave (4) pullback.
The area around $70K–$68.3K is where that correction could land without damaging the overall structure. A move into that zone would still fit a healthy continuation.
If price pushes higher first and takes out the recent high, it leans more toward continuation rather than a clean pullback.
But once $67.7K breaks, the idea gets invalidated and opens the door for a deeper move down instead of just a correction.
#freedomofmoney
The area around $70K–$68.3K is where that correction could land without damaging the overall structure. A move into that zone would still fit a healthy continuation.
If price pushes higher first and takes out the recent high, it leans more toward continuation rather than a clean pullback.
But once $67.7K breaks, the idea gets invalidated and opens the door for a deeper move down instead of just a correction.
#freedomofmoney
Something interesting is happening under the surface with $XRP .
While price has been bouncing, the derivatives side is cooling off fast. Open interest has been getting flushed, with Binance seeing a noticeable drop in positioning over the past few days.
Overall leverage has come down significantly from mid-March levels, which usually points to the market resetting after being overcrowded.
Most of the recent liquidations have been shorts, suggesting traders were leaning the wrong way into this move.
Less leverage, shorts getting squeezed… the structure is quietly shifting.
#CZReleasedMemeoir
While price has been bouncing, the derivatives side is cooling off fast. Open interest has been getting flushed, with Binance seeing a noticeable drop in positioning over the past few days.
Overall leverage has come down significantly from mid-March levels, which usually points to the market resetting after being overcrowded.
Most of the recent liquidations have been shorts, suggesting traders were leaning the wrong way into this move.
Less leverage, shorts getting squeezed… the structure is quietly shifting.
#CZReleasedMemeoir
Last-Minute Deal: Trump and Iran Agree to a Two-Week Ceasefire
With minutes left on his 8 PM deadline, Trump stood down. Pakistan's Prime Minister brokered a ceasefire that gives Iran two weeks to negotiate a permanent end to the war in Islamabad. US offensive operations have ceased. The Strait of Hormuz question is still open.
Bitcoin felt it immediately. $BTC jumped to $71,704 the moment the news broke, per Fortune. Markets had been pricing the worst. They got something else.
Does this change how you're positioning in crypto right now?
With minutes left on his 8 PM deadline, Trump stood down. Pakistan's Prime Minister brokered a ceasefire that gives Iran two weeks to negotiate a permanent end to the war in Islamabad. US offensive operations have ceased. The Strait of Hormuz question is still open.
Bitcoin felt it immediately. $BTC jumped to $71,704 the moment the news broke, per Fortune. Markets had been pricing the worst. They got something else.
Does this change how you're positioning in crypto right now?
I didn’t think much had changed, to be honest.
It just felt like the usual system was still in control banks, transfers, delays… same routine.
But then it became clear how much value is actually moving through stablecoins now.
It’s being used because it’s simply easier. Faster payments, lower fees, no waiting around.
No closing hours. No extra friction.
That’s when it clicked… this isn’t some future shift that’s coming. It’s already happening, just not loudly.
And $BTC ? It’s not even trying to compete. Just there, doing its thing but somehow still right at the center of it all.
The real question now isn’t *if* this keeps growing… it’s how long the old system can keep up.
#AnthropicBansOpenClawFromClaude
It just felt like the usual system was still in control banks, transfers, delays… same routine.
But then it became clear how much value is actually moving through stablecoins now.
It’s being used because it’s simply easier. Faster payments, lower fees, no waiting around.
No closing hours. No extra friction.
That’s when it clicked… this isn’t some future shift that’s coming. It’s already happening, just not loudly.
And $BTC ? It’s not even trying to compete. Just there, doing its thing but somehow still right at the center of it all.
The real question now isn’t *if* this keeps growing… it’s how long the old system can keep up.
#AnthropicBansOpenClawFromClaude
$BTC is around $68,700, but the bear market bottom doesn’t look fully confirmed yet.
Most holders are still in profit, trading about 21% above the realized price. Historically, real bottoms only happen once prices dip below that, which hasn’t happened this time.
The premium over realized price has dropped from 120% in late 2024 to 21% now, showing the market dynamics are shifting.
Institutional signals are mixed: Coinbase Premium Index is negative, but ETFs still pulled in over $1 billion in March.
Bitcoin hasn’t entered a confirmed accumulation zone yet, even though it’s holding between $65K and $70K.
#ADPJobsSurge
Most holders are still in profit, trading about 21% above the realized price. Historically, real bottoms only happen once prices dip below that, which hasn’t happened this time.
The premium over realized price has dropped from 120% in late 2024 to 21% now, showing the market dynamics are shifting.
Institutional signals are mixed: Coinbase Premium Index is negative, but ETFs still pulled in over $1 billion in March.
Bitcoin hasn’t entered a confirmed accumulation zone yet, even though it’s holding between $65K and $70K.
#ADPJobsSurge
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