CryptoQuant Quicktake

Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has climbed to approximately 0.22, its highest reading of the current cycle, even as BTC remains near $64,000 and well below its previous highs. That divergence is the central message: derivatives exposure is expanding much faster than price is recovering.
The ELR measures futures open interest relative to the amount of Bitcoin held in the exchange’s reserves. A rising ratio therefore means that more leveraged exposure is being built for each unit of BTC available on the platform. This can result from increasing open interest, declining exchange reserves, or a combination of both.
In practical terms, the market is becoming more sensitive to relatively small price movements. The ratio does not reveal whether traders are predominantly long or short, so it should not be treated as a directional signal by itself. What it does reveal is that pressure is accumulating beneath price.
The historical comparison makes the current setup particularly relevant.
During the 2022 bear market, the ratio also accelerated toward extreme levels as Bitcoin approached its cycle low. That period was accompanied by violent volatility and repeated liquidations. Only after excess leverage was flushed did the ratio retreat and the market begin to form a more durable base.
The current structure is beginning to rhyme.
Since the February lows, leverage has rebuilt persistently while the price recovery has remained weak and uneven. However, this similarity does not confirm that a market bottom is already in. In the previous cycle, elevated leverage was part of the instability surrounding the low, not evidence that the risk had already passed.
What matters now is whether spot demand can absorb this leverage or whether another volatility shock will be needed to reset positioning.
Written by MorenoDV_

1INCH closed at $0.082 on August 4, essentially flat versus its 3-month baseline (+1.3%) despite a sharp weekly decline (-2.1%). Price, however, is arguably the least interesting number in this dataset right now.
Total transaction count reached 20,897 on August 4 — the single highest daily reading in the past six months, more than 13x above the 6-month average of 1,532. Active addresses climbed to 551, also near the top of their 6-month range (mean 282, max 701). Token transfer counts followed the same trajectory, up 467% versus the 3-month baseline.
What stands out is the composition of this activity. Median transfer size has collapsed to roughly $850 on August 4 — down 75.7% from the 3-month median of $3,859. Mean transfer size shows a similar pattern (-41.9% vs 3-month). In other words, the surge in transaction count is being driven by a large number of small transfers rather than a handful of large ones — a pattern more consistent with granular, retail-level activity than whale accumulation.
Exchange-side data adds another layer. Binance netflow has been negative every day from August 1 through August 4, and the 7-day average sits at -143,917 — down sharply from the prior week (-173%). At the same time, Binance's 1INCH reserve has continued to drift lower, falling from roughly 155.5M toward 142.9M currently.
Taken together: transaction activity and address participation are running at multi-month highs, transfer sizes are unusually small, and coins are steadily leaving Binance rather than accumulating there. This combination — rising granular activity alongside declining exchange supply — has historically coincided with early-stage redistribution or off-exchange accumulation phases, though it doesn’t rule out simple wallet reshuffling without directional intent. Worth watching whether median transfer size recovers (suggesting larger participants re-entering) or whether the exchange outflow trend reverses as activity normalizes.
Written by CryptoOnchain

When evaluating the chart as a whole, Ethereum appears to be entering a phase where its trading range is becoming increasingly compressed.
The current Funding Rate is close to 0.00, indicating no clear dominance between long and short positions. This suggests that recent price action has been driven primarily by spot market buying and selling rather than excessive positioning in the futures market.
Meanwhile, the Estimated Leverage Ratio remains elevated at 0.6, showing that a significant amount of leveraged open interest is still in the market. As a result, even relatively small price movements could trigger liquidation cascades and increase volatility.
Following June's sharp decline, ETH has recovered from around $1,550 to approximately $1,875. However, recent candlesticks have become smaller and trading volume has continued to decline, reflecting weakening momentum and a period of sideways consolidation.
The RSI is currently around 52, placing it in neutral territory. It is neither overbought nor oversold, meaning technical indicators do not currently favor a mandatory move in either direction.
Overall, there are no strong signs of selling pressure, but a sustained upward move will likely require stronger spot demand. While the neutral Funding Rate points to a healthier derivatives market structure, the still-high Estimated Leverage Ratio leaves Ethereum vulnerable to sudden, high volatility squeeze events. At this stage, the next major price move is likely to depend on spot buying strength and on-chain capital inflows rather than futures positioning.
Written by PelinayPA

Ethereum shows a widening gap between supply restraint and economic demand.
The constructive side is clear. ETH exchange reserves have fallen from approximately 16.8 million to 15.1 million, while the staking rate has risen from below 30% to 33.9%. More ETH is entering staking while fewer units remain on centralised exchanges. This reduces immediately available supply, although staked ETH can still gain economic liquidity through liquid-staking tokens and derivatives.
Demand indicators remain much weaker. Total fees burned ended near 11.9 ETH after several temporary activity spikes earlier in the year. Low burn implies that base-layer usage is not generating enough fee pressure to support a strong scarcity narrative. Citi previously identified weak user-activity metrics as a particular sensitivity for ETH, while noting that stablecoin and tokenisation growth could eventually improve demand.
The Coinbase Premium Index remains negative near -0.106, showing weak US spot demand. Funding is still positive at approximately 0.0021 despite ETH trading near $1,800. Traders are therefore paying to maintain long exposure without confirmation from American spot markets or stronger network economics.
Considering the economics of Ethereum, while it has absorbed supply, the market has not given it a bigger monetary premium. Therefore, key considerations should be given to persistent fee growth and settlement volume, and improvement in the Coinbase premium.
Written by Novaque Research

Long-term holders are now moving coins at a loss: a sign that capitulation is reaching even the strongest hands.
I don’t know whether the final bottom is already in or Bitcoin still needs one more sweep into the $50Ks. What I do know is that we’re back in value territory, and long-term investors should already be scaling in around the low $60Ks.
You probably won’t catch the exact bottom. You don’t need to. The goal is to accumulate near the lower end of the bear-market range.
Written by Voxam_0xTalks

Long-term holders are now moving coins at a loss: a sign that capitulation is reaching even the strongest hands.
I don’t know whether the final bottom is already in or Bitcoin still needs one more sweep into the $50Ks. What I do know is that we’re back in value territory, and long-term investors should already be scaling in around the low $60Ks.
You probably won’t catch the exact bottom. You don’t need to. The goal is to accumulate near the lower end of the bear-market range.
Written by voxam

While BTC continues to oscillate between $60,000 and $65,000, the whale inflow ratio on Binance has just reached 0.52, its highest level in the past 4 months.
This means whales are growing somewhat impatient, with their activity intensifying on Binance relative to retail and smaller-sized transactions.
In terms of inflows, this dynamic suggests that whales sent more BTC to Binance than the rest of participants, mechanically increasing selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Historically, these spikes in the whale inflow ratio have occurred just as often at market tops as at lows, during episodes of panic and capitulation.
It remains to be seen whether this trend continues, with whales keeping up increased inflows to Binance. However, given the current low volatility, this indicator is likely to return to normal quickly once this episode has passed.
Written by Darkfost

[Shifting Trader Behaviour]
While the legacy cryptocurrencies have been showcasing relatively poor performance this year, Gate exchange’s data shows trader behaviour that prefers traditional finance (or TradFi) assets, like stocks and precious metals.
The migration from cryptocurrency to traditional finance (TradFi) has represented an enduring paradigm shift since 2024, when new AI-related stocks gained the attention of retail investors, promising crypto-like returns.
[On-Chain Data Indicates Growing TradFi Volume]
When looking at CryptoQuant’s on-chain data, in early January this year Gate exchange’s TradFi volume was a mere 0.14%, while it surged to 4.7% in late July, representing a 3,000% growth.
This on-chain data signals a clear structural shift in Gate-related trader activity: Traditional finance (TradFi) products have moved from a near-negligible niche to a meaningful and growing share of the exchange’s overall trading volume.
[How to Interpret the Data]
The shifting behaviour is evidence of crypto-native capital becoming multi-asset. Traders are no longer treating crypto exchange platforms purely as crypto venues. Instead, platforms that offer easy access to stocks, metals, and other traditional instruments are capturing activity that might otherwise migrate to brokers or other markets.
Despite the escalating trend, the 4.7% TradFi volume is still a minority share and crypto remains the core of Gate’s business. However, the trajectory shows rapid product-market fit for the multi-asset model.
[Looking Forward]
In this quickly shifting environment, Gate is well positioned to capture the growing multi-asset demand. By offering seamless access to stocks, precious metals and other TradFi instruments alongside its core crypto products, the exchange can retain capital that might otherwise leave the platform, and attract fresh retail and institutional flow.
Written by oinonen_t

Binance data shows that XRP's 30-day Realized Volatility (30D) has fallen to around 0.34, its lowest level in three months, while the cryptocurrency is trading near $1.07. This decline reflects a significant reduction in daily price fluctuations, suggesting that the market is entering a period of relative calm following the heightened volatility seen in June.
Periods of lower volatility are typically associated with reduced short-term speculative activity and a decline in panic- or greed-driven trading. They also reflect a temporary balance between buyers and sellers, as price movements become more subdued while the market awaits a new catalyst to determine its next direction.
Although lower volatility does not, by itself, signal a bullish or bearish trend, it often precedes a period of increased price activity. History shows that markets rarely remain calm for extended periods, with volatility often expanding in response to major news, stronger trading volumes, or shifts in investor sentiment.
At present, the 0.34 reading suggests that XRP is trading in a more stable environment than in recent months, giving investors an opportunity to evaluate the broader market trend without the noise of sharp price swings. However, if this period of subdued volatility persists, the likelihood of a significant move—either upward or downward—could increase, particularly if accompanied by higher trading volumes or a noticeable change in derivatives market activity. As a result, monitoring volatility in the coming days will be essential for assessing XRP's next potential move.
Written by Arab Chain

XRP withdrawal-wallet activity intensified across several major exchanges in early August, led by an exceptional reading on Coinbase.
On August 4, Coinbase’s seven-day net depositing/withdrawing wallets metric fell to -10,900, meaning withdrawing wallets exceeded depositing wallets by 10,900.
The reading was approximately 3.4 times deeper than Coinbase’s previous low of -3,200 recorded in June 2025.
The shift has not been limited to Coinbase.
Coinbase, Binance and Crypto.com all moved into negative territory on July 17 and remained there into August, indicating a sustained increase in withdrawal-side wallet activity across multiple trading venues.
Binance recorded -2,550 wallets on August 4, its lowest reading since June 2025, when the metric reached -4,380.
Crypto.com declined to -2,290, also its lowest level since June 2025, compared with a previous low of -4,470.
While Binance and Crypto.com have not yet surpassed their June 2025 extremes, their simultaneous decline strengthens the broader cross-exchange signal.
The metric measures the number of depositing and withdrawing wallets rather than the volume of XRP transferred, highlighting the breadth of withdrawal activity rather than the monetary value of exchange outflows.
Written by Amr Taha

CryptoQuant data suggests the recent Coldcard firmware exploit triggered one of the largest waves of small holder Bitcoin movement in years, with on chain activity reaching levels last seen during the FTX collapse.
Key On Chain Facts
Sub 1 BTC Transfers Near FTX Levels
On July 31, transfers below 1 BTC reached 39.6K BTC, just below the 39.9K BTC recorded after the FTX collapse on November 16, 2022. Small holders have not moved Bitcoin at this scale in nearly four years.
Network Activity Surged
Daily active addresses jumped from about 645K to nearly 1 million, the highest level since December 2024. The increase was driven mainly by sending addresses, reflecting a sharp rise in coin movement.
Long Term Holder Spending Increased
Long term holder spending from non exchange wallets reached 406K BTC on a 30 day cumulative basis by August 3, the highest level since mid January.
Exchange Reserves Rose
Total exchange reserves increased from approximately 2.7015M BTC to 2.719M BTC between July 28 and August 3, adding about 17.5K BTC.
Binance absorbed roughly 51% of these net inflows, with its reserves rising from around 650K BTC to 659K BTC.
This appears to be a flight to safety driven by temporary distrust in self custody following the hardware wallet scare rather than a classic capitulation event. Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges, especially Binance, increasing short term sell side supply.
However, funding rates remain positive and open interest is still contained, suggesting the market has not yet gone through a full deleveraging phase.
The key metric to watch is whether these newly deposited coins remain on exchanges or move back into self custody once the panic fades.
Written by theophiluspep

CryptoQuant data suggests the recent Coldcard firmware exploit triggered one of the largest waves of small holder Bitcoin movement in years, with on chain activity reaching levels last seen during the FTX collapse.
Key On Chain Facts
Sub 1 BTC Transfers Near FTX Levels
On July 31, transfers below 1 BTC reached 39.6K BTC, just below the 39.9K BTC recorded after the FTX collapse on November 16, 2022. Small holders have not moved Bitcoin at this scale in nearly four years.
Network Activity Surged
Daily active addresses jumped from about 645K to nearly 1 million, the highest level since December 2024. The increase was driven mainly by sending addresses, reflecting a sharp rise in coin movement.
Long Term Holder Spending Increased
Long term holder spending from non exchange wallets reached 406K BTC on a 30 day cumulative basis by August 3, the highest level since mid January.
Exchange Reserves Rose
Total exchange reserves increased from approximately 2.7015M BTC to 2.719M BTC between July 28 and August 3, adding about 17.5K BTC.
Binance absorbed roughly 51% of these net inflows, with its reserves rising from around 650K BTC to 659K BTC.
This appears to be a flight to safety driven by temporary distrust in self custody following the hardware wallet scare rather than a classic capitulation event. Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges, especially Binance, increasing short term sell side supply.
However, funding rates remain positive and open interest is still contained, suggesting the market has not yet gone through a full deleveraging phase.
The key metric to watch is whether these newly deposited coins remain on exchanges or move back into self custody once the panic fades.
Written by theophiluspep

CryptoQuant data suggests the recent Coldcard firmware exploit triggered one of the largest waves of small holder Bitcoin movement in years, with on chain activity reaching levels last seen during the FTX collapse.
Key On Chain Facts
Sub 1 BTC Transfers Near FTX Levels
On July 31, transfers below 1 BTC reached 39.6K BTC, just below the 39.9K BTC recorded after the FTX collapse on November 16, 2022. Small holders have not moved Bitcoin at this scale in nearly four years.
Network Activity Surged
Daily active addresses jumped from about 645K to nearly 1 million, the highest level since December 2024. The increase was driven mainly by sending addresses, reflecting a sharp rise in coin movement.
Long Term Holder Spending Increased
Long term holder spending from non exchange wallets reached 406K BTC on a 30 day cumulative basis by August 3, the highest level since mid January.
Exchange Reserves Rose
Total exchange reserves increased from approximately 2.7015M BTC to 2.719M BTC between July 28 and August 3, adding about 17.5K BTC.
Binance absorbed roughly 51% of these net inflows, with its reserves rising from around 650K BTC to 659K BTC.
This appears to be a flight to safety driven by temporary distrust in self custody following the hardware wallet scare rather than a classic capitulation event. Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges, especially Binance, increasing short term sell side supply.
However, funding rates remain positive and open interest is still contained, suggesting the market has not yet gone through a full deleveraging phase.
The key metric to watch is whether these newly deposited coins remain on exchanges or move back into self custody once the panic fades.
Written by theophiluspep

XRP closed at $1.075 on August 3, down from the $1.143 high set on July 22 and now sitting near the lower edge of its recent range. A 2.3% weekly decline is unremarkable on its own. More notable is what’s happening beneath the surface.
Open Interest has fallen to 362–369M over the past few days — the lowest readings in the entire 6-month window (range: 362M–519M, mean 435M). Leverage sits at 0.139–0.142, also near its 6-month floor of 0.133. Both metrics are down roughly 12–18% versus their 90-day baselines, reflecting a sustained unwind rather than a one-day drop.
What stands out is how this decline occurred. Liquidations during the move from $1.143 to $1.061 remained relatively balanced: July 27 saw $3.24M in long liquidations versus $470K in shorts, while July 29 flipped to $640K longs against $548K shorts. That pattern doesn’t resemble a typical forced-deleveraging cascade, where one side dominates. Funding also stayed inside a narrow -0.009 to +0.010 band throughout. Despite week-over-week changes exceeding 1,000%, absolute funding remained neutral.
Another point: NVT fell 42.7% versus its 3-month average, while transaction count declined only 23.3% over the same period — suggesting valuation compressed faster than network usage. On the spot side, Binance deposit addresses remain down more than 95% versus the quarterly baseline, although a $2.3M inflow spike on July 30 shows liquidity has thinned rather than disappeared.
Taken together — leverage and OI near multi-month lows, balanced liquidations, and neutral funding — the setup looks more like a quiet positioning reset than a directional flush. Historically, such resets have preceded either stabilization or a resumption of the prevailing trend, depending on whether Open Interest stabilizes or continues falling alongside price.
Written by CryptoOnchain

The BTC CVD Confirmation Score on Binance has stabilized at 0.74, a level that reflects the continued alignment between price action and buying pressure in the market. Higher values indicate that price increases are supported by genuine buying inflows rather than moves driven by low liquidity or short-term speculation.
Data shows that the indicator has maintained elevated positive levels during periods of strong Bitcoin uptrends while declining significantly during market corrections or periods of weakening momentum. Its current reading of 0.74 suggests that buyers continue to dominate trading activity on the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading near $64,000, reflecting continued price stability within a relatively high range. This level becomes even more significant when accompanied by a strong CVD Confirmation Score, as it suggests that trading volume is supporting the current trend rather than moving against it.
Despite the positive signal, the indicator has not yet reached overbought territory, which typically begins above 0.90 and may signal excessive market optimism or a potential slowdown in momentum. Therefore, the current reading points to sustained market strength without any clear signs of overheating or overbought conditions.
Written by Arab Chain

Binance ELR (Estimated Leverage Ratio) is currently sitting at 0.22 and continues its upward trend.
It can be stated that Binance ELR will likely maintain an inverse correlation with Bitcoin's price, much like it did at the end of 2022. Logically, ELR does not directly dictate price direction; however, when combined with various other market metrics, it provides key insights into how much risk can be reasonably taken at critical levels.
As a high-volume exchange housing a vast number of retail traders, Binance serves as a key gauge for broader market behavior. An increasing ELR alongside declining Bitcoin prices indicates that a growing number of leveraged positions are entering the market. This reflects a volume inflated by derivatives rather than actual spot Bitcoin buying and selling.
By the end of 2026, a surge in ELR above the 0.25 mark could signal that Bitcoin has established its local bottom. A zone around $50,000 likely represents the floor for this cycle, after which a transition back into a bullish structure can be expected. Nevertheless, a drop to these levels would almost certainly be triggered by significant negative news flow.
Written by BorisD

A Federal Reserve pause does not provide the same stimulus as a rate cut. The Fed held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on 29 July, maintaining a restrictive return on cash and short-duration government debt. The decision passed by a 9-3 vote, but it did not deliver a new liquidity impulse.
Bitcoin’s internal demand indicators reflect that restraint. The Coinbase Premium Index remains deeply negative near -0.11, indicating weaker Bitcoin pricing on Coinbase than on offshore venues. That pattern points to subdued US spot demand and limits the case that domestic institutions are absorbing supply.
Aggregate open interest remains below its 100-day average, while CME options exposure has contracted sharply from its first-quarter peak. CME futures open interest has held up better, but the maturity profile remains concentrated in shorter-dated contracts. This can reflect hedging and basis activity rather than outright bullish conviction.
Exchange reserves have also risen from their April low to approximately 2.72 million BTC. Investors therefore have more readily transferable supply available as US demand remains weak.
Considering the geopolitical and macroeconomic forces affecting capital markets, Bitcoin needs more than a rate hold. A durable recovery would require falling yields, improving ETF flows, a Coinbase premium converging toward zero, and declining exchange reserves to signal something positive.
Until those conditions emerge, a pause merely prevents further tightening; it does not create an accommodative regime for sustained price appreciation. Instead, it creates conditions for a price squeeze.
Written by Novaque Research

Some media outlets and crypto-focused social accounts recycled an earlier Strategy announcement on August 1, presenting it as a new decision to sell as much as $5 billion in Bitcoin following the company’s second-quarter losses.
The framing suggested that Strategy—formerly MicroStrategy—had suddenly changed its long-term Bitcoin policy and was preparing for a large, immediate liquidation.
However, the underlying capital-management framework had already been approved and publicly disclosed on June 29, more than a month earlier.
Michael Saylor directly rejected the viral framing, describing it as “old news presented as new” and clarifying that no new $5 billion Bitcoin sale authorization had been issued in August.
Yet while the corporate decision was not new, the fear generated by the recycled headlines appears to have produced a measurable response among short-term Bitcoin holders.
The data shows that STH transferred approximately 8,550 BTC to Binance at a realized loss on August 1, coinciding with the rapid spread of the Strategy story.
Deposits to an exchange do not prove that the entire amount was sold, but they indicate increased potential sell-side pressure or preparation to sell.
This was the third major short-term-holder loss-pressure event on Binance since late June:
June 26: 11,800 BTC
July 13: 10,230 BTC
August 1: 8,550 BTC
This episode illustrates how incomplete or recycled headlines can create new market anxiety without any equivalent change in the underlying facts.
Less-experienced traders may respond by moving assets to exchanges while already holding unrealized losses, increasing the risk of selling near local lows after previously buying at higher prices.
Such fear-driven periods can also shift liquidity from reactive market participants toward better-capitalized and more patient investors—including professional funds capable of accumulating risk assets during periods of forced or emotional selling.
Written by Amr Taha

A bull market is a process when whales sell $BTC, which they bought at low prices, to retail investors while the price rises.
In past cycle patterns, $BTC LTH created a first rally by selling a portion of its accumulated supply. Subsequently, it saw a pattern of accumulating more supply during subsequent declines, after which a second rally proceeded.
In general, the second rally recorded a much larger rise than the first rally, and the cycle ended as LTH lost a significant portion of their supply.
The first rally of this cycle began in January 2023 and continued until December 2025. During this process, LTH repeatedly bought and sold $BTC. Subsequently, during the decline, they explosively increased their supply by buying far more than their selling amount.
Recently, the increase trend in LTH supply has stopped, and a decrease has begun. Based on previous patterns, the second rally is starting.
In the 2013 cycle, the gap between the first and second rally was 8 months. In the 2017 cycle, it was 17 months. And in the 2021 cycle, it was 16 months.
In this cycle, 31 months have passed since the first rally. This is a completely different pattern from previous cycles. The second rally was delayed as spot ETFs were launched, institutional funds flowed in, and buying by new "whales" continued.
However, the important fact is that LTHs hold the largest amount of $BTC in history.
And that the supply of $BTC from LTHs has started to decrease.
Written by CW8900

The Coinbase Premium Gap has closed negative for 90 consecutive days, from May 6 to August 3. The last positive daily close was May 5 at +$2.20. In the trailing twelve months of data this is the longest such run, more than double the previous one of 40 days in January and February.
The size of the gap deserves as much attention as its sign. The August 3 reading was -$53.49, which is -0.084% on the index, and the streak averages -0.092%. Tether has been trading at $0.99912, a discount of 0.088% to the dollar, or roughly $56 per bitcoin at current spot. On the USDT-adjusted series the picture changes: 45 of the 90 days close positive, with a median of +$0.53. In July, 20 of 31 days were positive once adjusted, against zero on the raw series.
If the raw gap were tracking US spot demand, fund balances should confirm it. They only partly do. Holdings across the spot bitcoin funds in CryptoQuant's fund data fell from 1,337,575 BTC on May 6 to 1,213,891 on July 31, a decline of 123,684 BTC. Almost all of that came in May and June. July added 2,277 BTC, and IBIT alone added 3,711. Through a month in which the premium never once closed positive, the funds were net buyers.
This suggests the streak is being driven more by the quote currency than by absent American bids. Watching the adjusted series alongside fund balances looks like the cleaner read, with the raw gap treated as a signal mainly when the two disagree. A raw gap turning positive while Tether still trades below par would be the more meaningful shift.
Written by The Enigma Trader