CryptoQuant Quicktake

US10Y is the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield — one of the key indicators for tracking interest-rate conditions and market expectations for the U.S. economy.
On the normalized chart, US10Y has rebounded strongly from its early-2026 low and is now approaching its highest level in several months.
Meanwhile, $BTC remains significantly below its late-2025 peak.
Written by Rei Researcher

Since October, incoming liquidity on exchanges has melted like snow in the sun.
This liquidity is represented here by stablecoin flows in and out of exchanges, averaged over a month. Since October, the months have followed one another with the same pattern, as the stablecoin reserves of major exchanges have done nothing but shrink, month after month.
Today is no exception, with ~$1.75B less in stablecoins on Binance over the past 30 days. On OKX, the trend is similar with -$605 million, and on Bybit, -$321 million. Other exchanges recorded -$311 million on average.
It's now been nearly a year since stablecoins started leaving exchanges, with figures still just as striking on Binance, which alone accounts for ~70% of the stablecoin supply held on exchanges.
This points to persistent investor disinterest in the crypto market.
Hardly surprising when you compare BTC's performance, down around -48% since October, against +18% for the S&P 500 and +23% for the Nasdaq over the same period.
Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin is approaching an increasingly important behavioral threshold, and Short-Term Holders are telling us why this area deserves attention.
Two metrics are currently converging around the same message: STH MVRV and STH SOPR.
STH MVRV remains below 1, meaning the average Short-Term Holder is still holding BTC at an unrealized loss. Spot price remains below the cohort’s aggregate cost basis, with the STH Realized Price sitting around $67.2K.
In simple terms, recent buyers have not yet recovered.
At the same time, the 30-day STH SOPR is once again testing the neutral 1.0 level. SOPR tells us whether coins being spent by this cohort are moving at a profit or loss. Above 1, profits dominate. Below 1, losses dominate.
Right now, the market is effectively sitting on that boundary.
This matters because both metrics are also approaching a descending behavioral ceiling that has repeatedly coincided with local market tops throughout the current cycle.
The pattern suggests something important beneath price: every recovery in Short-Term Holder profitability has become progressively weaker.
Rather than moving decisively back into profit, recent buyers have repeatedly reached levels where selling pressure reappears. Rallies are increasingly being used to reduce exposure, exit around breakeven, or realize whatever profit remains available.
That creates a fragile setup.
If STH SOPR fails to establish itself above 1 while STH MVRV remains below its realized-value threshold, Bitcoin would continue operating in a regime where recent buyers remain financially stressed and rallies struggle to generate sustained profitability.
But the opposite would be equally meaningful.
A clean recovery of MVRV above 1, combined with SOPR holding above 1 and breaking this declining structure, would suggest that demand is finally absorbing the supply coming from underwater holders.
For now, Bitcoin is testing whether recent buyers can become profitable again.
Written by MorenoDV_

BTC history shows that price discovery rarely moves in a straight line. Major advances into euphoric territory have repeatedly been followed by sharp repricing, with deep corrections after confidence was highest. The chart puts that cycle behavior into context: the 2017 peak was followed by an extreme collapse, while 2021 also ended with a prolonged drawdown. These declines marked major shifts in market structure, liquidity, positioning.
What makes the current cycle more interesting is the scale of the drawdowns relative to new highs. Bitcoin has pushed into record territory without yet reproducing the extreme capitulation seen in earlier cycles. That does not remove downside risk. The market has so far absorbed corrections without the forced deleveraging seen during major reversals. The difference between a normal correction versus structural weakness becomes important as price remains elevated.
I would pay closer attention to what happens after each new peak than to the peak itself. If Bitcoin loses ground but quickly recovers, the market is absorbing profit-taking while maintaining demand. If recoveries become weaker while drawdowns deepen, the signal changes. A market can still look strong on a price chart while internal momentum deteriorates. Historically, the transition from shallow pullbacks to persistent drawdowns has been more revealing than any single red candle.
The macro backdrop adds another layer. Bitcoin now operates within a market shaped by global liquidity, institutional flows, financial conditions, risk appetite. Historical drawdowns are a reference, not a timetable. A 70% decline from a previous cycle cannot simply be projected onto the next one. The better question is whether demand can keep absorbing supply near record valuations. As long as drawdowns remain contained, the structure looks resilient. If downside expands materially, the market may enter a different phase.
Written by CryptoZeno

Bitcoin has recovered above $63k, but (STH) Market Cap remains near historically depressed levels — a divergence that may signal that the market is recovering before short-term participants have meaningfully returned.
On August 16, STH Market Cap stood at $235.7 billion, below the previous low of $237.7 billion recorded on October 3, 2024, when Bitcoin traded near $60,800.
The metric had already fallen to $233 billion on June 30, with Bitcoin at $59,044, before reaching only $234.4 billion on July 13, even as BTC recovered to $62,700.
Such deeply depressed STH Market Cap levels are consistent with a major capitulation phase, where losses, distribution and declining participation reduce the value held by recently active Bitcoin investors.
What makes the current structure particularly notable is that Bitcoin is recovering while STH Market Cap is barely expanding.
From June 30 to August 16, Bitcoin gained at least 6.7%, while STH Market Cap increased only 1.2%.
Between June 30 and July 13 alone, BTC rose roughly 6.2%, compared with just a 0.6% increase in STH Market Cap.
This divergence can be constructive for Bitcoin.
It suggests that the price recovery is occurring without a large-scale return of short-term speculative capital.
Market participants who were hit by the previous decline appear to remain cautious, with limited evidence that the short-term-holder cohort is aggressively rebuilding Bitcoin exposure despite higher prices.
The supply data reinforces that picture.
Importantly, STH supply contraction does not necessarily mean those coins were sold; some Bitcoin naturally ages out of the short-term-holder cohort and becomes classified as long-term supply.
The broader signal, however, remains clear: Bitcoin has recovered above its October 2024 price level while STH Market Cap remains below its former cycle low.
Written by Amr Taha

The $BTC apparent demand has shown a negative trend since last November. This signifies actual funds outflow, and simultaneously, $BTC has shown a bearish trend.
However, $BTC demand has recently begun to recover, and Apparent Demand has finally turned positive. The long negative trend has ended, and a real inflow has appeared.
At the very least, this indicates a short-term uptrend, or perhaps the possibility of a trend reversal.
Positive signals are emerging.
Written by CW8900

Stablecoin usage is expanding rapidly worldwide, and Japan is now emerging as an important market to watch.
Japan’s retail sector is becoming a real-world testing ground for stablecoins. The evolution from Matsuya Ginza to Chibo and Lawson shows that the opportunity goes far beyond another payment method.
In 2021, Matsuya Ginza used JPYC through an agency-purchase model, connecting digital-asset holders with physical retail. In 2026, Chibo combined JPYC payments with SBTs to connect transactions with visits, rewards and loyalty. Lawson then tested JPYC, USDC and USDT through existing POS systems.
This matters globally. Stablecoins enable money to move 24/7 and connect payments with wallets, customer data, loyalty programs and eventually AI agents.
I call this “Digital Capital Management”: turning AI, data, digital assets and financial infrastructure into resources that create enterprise value.
For retailers, the next model may be:
Payment × Data × Loyalty × Finance × AI.
The question is no longer simply, “Can customers pay with stablecoins?” It is, “What value can companies create and retain after the payment?”
Japan’s experiments are still early, but they signal a broader transition: stablecoins are moving from crypto markets into the real economy—and could become a core layer of global commerce.
Written by XWIN Japan

XRP Open Interest data on Binance shows a significant increase in the value of open positions in the derivatives market, reaching approximately $461.3 million, compared to around $360 million at the beginning of August. This marks the highest level of open interest in two months, indicating a strong return of activity to the XRP derivatives market.
This surge coincides with XRP trading near $1.00, reflecting a notable increase in the capital committed to open positions. However, the rise in open interest does not necessarily indicate the direction of these positions, as they could be associated with either long or short positions.
The current movement is becoming increasingly significant as XRP approaches key price levels. If the price rises while open interest continues to grow, this could reflect the entry of new positions supporting upward momentum. Conversely, if the price continues to weaken while open interest remains high, the risk of liquidations and sharper price movements could increase.
The current rise in open interest reflects increased participation and speculation in the XRP derivatives market, making the upcoming price movement more significant. Monitoring funding rates, trading volume, and the long-to-short ratio will be important for assessing the direction of these positions.
Written by Arab Chain

XRP wallet activity has shifted sharply toward the withdrawal side across several major exchanges.
On August 17, Coinbase’s 7-day net depositing/withdrawing wallet count fell to -14,300, its most negative reading since July 2024. The metric first moved below zero on July 12, suggesting the imbalance has persisted for more than a month rather than reflecting a single-day spike.
The shift is also visible across other major exchanges.
Binance recorded -3,270 net wallets, while
Crypto.com reached -2,680, with both moving into negative territory around July 18.
The strongest signal, however, comes from Coinbase’s share of the broader market imbalance.
On August 18, Coinbase accounted for 47.3% of the total absolute 7-day net wallet imbalance across tracked exchanges, the highest level since July 2024. The dominance metric measures each exchange’s absolute net wallet imbalance relative to the combined imbalance across all tracked venues.
At the same time, Upbit’s share declined from roughly 40% in June to 12%, while Binance recovered from near 0% on July 16 to around 10%.
The data shows that XRP withdrawing wallets now outnumber depositing wallets across several major exchanges.
This gap is particularly pronounced on Coinbase, where the 7-day net wallet count reached -14,300, meaning significantly more wallets were involved in XRP withdrawals than deposits.
Similar negative readings on Binance and Crypto.com indicate that the withdrawal-side shift is occurring across multiple trading venues, while Coinbase alone now accounts for 47.3% of the total tracked net wallet imbalance.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin climbed to the $64K level following a strong reaction from its monthly open—a key institutional benchmark. Analyzing major exchange data reveals the underlying mechanics behind this swift move on low volume.
Funding Rates & Position Divergence
At the monthly open, funding rates across primary exchanges diverged noticeably:
• Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Deribit: Funding rates slipped into negative territory toward -0.00, signaling a clear dominance of short positions.
• HTX: Maintained a positive funding rate of 0.05, indicating users were predominantly positioned long.
The Mechanism Behind the Rally
As price consolidated around the $62.7K monthly open support, key high-volume exchanges like Binance shifted negative. This crowded short positioning served as the primary catalyst, fueling a short squeeze that drove prices higher.
Current Outlook & Risks
• Current Funding Dynamics: Funding rates on Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Deribit are drifting back toward negative territory from neutral levels. This environment could continue triggering short-term upward pumps.
• Volume & Volatility Risk: The move lacks solid spot volume backing. Low market liquidity amplifies volatility, making price swings sharper.
• Liquidity Illusion: Recent sharp moves in either direction resemble short-term liquidity sweeps rather than a sustainable organic trend.
Key Resistance: The $65K level continues to act as strong resistance. Caution is warranted beneath this zone in a low-volume environment.
Written by BorisD

Bitcoin’s 1-year Net Realized Profit/Loss is currently below zero, with the latest reading near -354K BTC.
This means that, over the past 365 days, realized losses have exceeded realized profits in BTC terms.
For context, previous troughs on this metric were much deeper: around -3.7M BTC in 2015, -4.0M BTC in 2019, and -4.3M BTC in 2023.
In terms of depth, the current negative reading is still far smaller than those historical troughs.
The signal is cautionary, but not capitulation-level by itself.
Key takeaway:
BTC is now in net realized loss territory on the 1-year sum. Realized loss stress is present, but the current depth remains far below prior troughs, so this metric alone does not confirm capitulation-level conditions.
Written by Zizcrypto

The data
The Coinbase Premium Index is the gap between bitcoin's (BTC) price on Coinbase and on Binance, in percent. Figures close August 16, 2026.
- 103 straight days below zero, from May 6: the longest since the series starts in 2017
- Previous longest: 84 days, late 2018
- Still running, so 103 is a minimum and can only rise
- Strictly counted, 103 is the record. Allow one positive close and 2026 still leads, 107 to 88
Half the streak is the peg
Coinbase prices in dollars, Binance in USDT, Tether's token designed to hold at one dollar. When USDT drifts, the gap moves on its own, no buyer behind it.
Corrected for that drift, across the first 97 days, through August 10:
- 48 days stay below zero. 49 do not
- The median close turns positive, from -0.090% to +0.0002%
- The longest unbroken run is 8 days, June 2 to 9
Half the duration is the stablecoin, not buyers. The gap nearly vanishes.
What the record does not tell you
Some demand weakness is real. Fund holdings, an independent gauge of BTC held by investment funds, fell 8.5% from May 6 to August 7.
But the tie to price is fragile. Measured from the first day of a negative episode, the median 90-day return is -21.5%, against +3.1% on random days. Measured from the day it ends, +19.1%. Define the episode as 15 days instead of 30 and the effect disappears.
A result that holds at one length and breaks at another is about the choice of length, not the market.
The record is real. The question is how much is the buyer, and how much is the stablecoin.
Written by thechessONCHAIN

Binance User Deposit Address has declined significantly after reaching a high in July and is now continuing to cool off.
This suggests that $BTC deposit activity on Binance is lower than in the previous period, but it is not enough to conclude that selling pressure is weakening or that supply is being absorbed.
At present, the data mainly indicates that deposit activity has decreased, while actual $BTC transfer volume to the exchange needs to be considered to better assess capital flows and potential selling pressure.
Written by Rei Researcher

Bitcoin Exchange Inflow CDD data on Binance shows a clear decline in the movement of long-held coins into the platform. The indicator has fallen to around 155, its lowest level since last May. This decline follows strong increases in late May and early June, when the reading repeatedly exceeded 500 and even surpassed 1,000.
The current downturn suggests a relative decrease in the movement of older coins to Binance, meaning that Bitcoin inflows to the platform are now less associated with coins that have remained dormant for extended periods. This contrasts sharply with the activity seen in May, when the indicator recorded significant increases alongside larger movements of older coins.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading near $63,000, while the indicator remains relatively low. This situation may reduce the likelihood of significant selling pressure resulting from large volumes of older coins moving to the platform. However, it does not, in itself, constitute a definitive bullish signal.
However, if the indicator begins to rise again significantly, especially alongside weakness in Bitcoin’s price, this could indicate a return of activity among long-term holders and an increased likelihood of selling pressure in the market.
Written by Arab Chain

We are seeing less profit-taking across both short-term and long-term holders.
Short-term holder (STH) SOPR has moved back to around 1, while Long-term holder (LTH) SOPR remains below 1. When BTC was trading at higher levels earlier this year, both metrics were also much higher.
So, there is less profit being realized across both groups compared with earlier this year.
Now, it is worth watching both metrics closely. If they start moving back above 1 while BTC holds its current range, we should get a clearer sense of whether profit-taking pressure is picking up again.
Written by nocoffeenobrain

Bitcoin Holds Above $60K as Selling Pressure Eases, But Demand Remains Soft
Bitcoin is trading around $63.3K to $63.6K after testing the $62K to $65K range. While the structure remains intact above $60K, demand is still relatively weak.
Short term holders have remained underwater for 98 consecutive days, with an average cost basis near $67.3K and unrealized losses of roughly 6%. However, STH SOPR at 0.996 suggests losses are being realized close to break even, with no signs of deep capitulation.
Exchange selling pressure has also eased. Net inflows fell from +3,507 BTC on August 14 to roughly +29 to +680 BTC in subsequent readings. This decline suggests immediate sell side pressure is moderating.
Derivatives positioning has cooled, with funding rates declining toward 0.00465% to 0.01% and open interest slipping modestly. Leverage has therefore reduced without triggering a major flush.
The main weakness remains spot demand. Recent ETF flows have turned negative, with one weekly window recording approximately $385M in outflows. Institutional demand remains significant, but momentum has weakened.
For now, the market favors continued consolidation around $60K to $65K. A sustained move above this range would require stronger spot demand, ETF inflows and volume.
A break below $60K alongside rising exchange inflows would weaken the structure and increase downside risk toward $50K.
Selling pressure is cooling, but demand still needs to return.
Written by theophiluspep

After a brief negative period (February–May 2026), funding rates have returned to 2026 high levels, reaching 20-month values.
The derivatives market sentiment is positive within the current BTC price range, indicating that most traders are taking long positions.
Written by G a a h

Bitcoin derivatives positioning is rebuilding across major exchanges .
On Binance, Bitcoin’s 30-day open interest change recovered to +6,380 BTC on August 15, after falling to -14,280 BTC on July 6.
That represents a swing of roughly 20,660 BTC from the July low. However, the current level remains well below Binance’s June 10 peak of approximately +17,000 BTC, suggesting leverage has returned without yet reaching the intensity seen earlier in the summer.
The recovery is also visible across other major exchanges.
Bybit reached +5,900 BTC on August 15, its highest reading since January 2026, while OKX recorded approximately +1,600 BTC. Gate.io followed with +3,300 BTC on August 16.
Together, the data points to a broader shift from July’s position contraction toward renewed leverage and position building across the Bitcoin derivatives market.
Open interest alone does not indicate whether the new exposure is predominantly long or short, making funding rates, order-flow data and liquidation positioning increasingly important for determining which side of the market is becoming more crowded.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin’s 30-day average Taker Buy Volume on Binance has fallen toward $3.3 billion, revisiting a zone previously observed around the late-2020 reset, the 2022 cycle bottom, and the 2023 consolidation.
What stands out is the divergence between price and participation. Bitcoin is trading near $63,500, yet aggressive market-buying activity has contracted to levels recorded when BTC traded at substantially lower prices. Beneath price, this points to fading speculative demand, reduced urgency among buyers, and a broader loss of market conviction.
Historically, similar contractions have appeared during periods of capitulation or accumulation and have often preceded a recovery in demand. However, low Taker Buy Volume is a condition, not a reversal signal. It shows that aggressive buyers have withdrawn, but it does not prove that selling pressure has been fully absorbed.
A more credible bottoming signal would require Bitcoin to stabilize while Taker Buy Volume begins to recover. Conversely, continued price weakness alongside persistently depressed volume would indicate an ongoing demand vacuum.
The current reading therefore points to an advanced reset in market participation, not a confirmed bottom: the market may be approaching seller exhaustion, yet buyers have not returned with enough force to establish control.
Written by MorenoDV_

XRP closed at $0.993 on August 16, testing the lower bound of its six-month range. Beneath this weak price action, the relationship between speculative positioning and spot liquidity is shifting.
A clear divergence is forming between derivatives growth and collapsing exchange flows. Open Interest (OI) climbed from 366M on August 4 to 461M on August 16 (+10% vs. the 30-day baseline), with the leverage ratio moving from 0.141 to 0.176. This suggests speculative traders are actively building positions.
However, this leverage buildup occurs in an increasingly illiquid spot market. Binance inflows and outflows plummeted 95–98% against their 90-day baselines, and deposit addresses fell 96%. With trading volume down 17% week-over-week, rising OI lacks the support of underlying capital rotation.
Funding rates remain slightly negative (-0.003 to -0.006) alongside this rising OI and falling price, suggesting a short bias. Yet, short liquidations are exceptionally low ($325 on Aug 16), indicating shorts remain untested, while long liquidations persist without cascading. Meanwhile, network utility stays resilient, with daily transactions near 2M (+43% vs. the quarterly baseline).
Taken together: speculative short positioning is increasing while spot exchange liquidity has nearly vanished. Historically, rising leverage in an illiquid spot market creates conditions susceptible to sudden volatility. This setup may provide the fuel for a mean-reversion squeeze if support holds, or accelerate a flush if the lack of spot bids persists.
Written by CryptoOnchain