e馒头妹
Occasional Trader
5.1 Years
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Use 9 short sentences to clearly and simply describe the current state of the cryptocurrency market
1: Unable to implement QE
2: Unable to control inflation
3: Cryptocurrency liquidity is very important in the U.S. right now
4: However, it's difficult for the U.S. to provide liquidity
5: Cryptocurrency is unlikely to shift to a bull market
6: MSTR and Bitmine are dangerous structures during a bear market
7: If these people can't buy in, there will be outflows when the ETF appears
8: Additionally, if a bear market begins, a chain sell-off will occur
9: The U.S. cannot control inflation and will stop cutting interest rates
$BTC
1: Unable to implement QE
2: Unable to control inflation
3: Cryptocurrency liquidity is very important in the U.S. right now
4: However, it's difficult for the U.S. to provide liquidity
5: Cryptocurrency is unlikely to shift to a bull market
6: MSTR and Bitmine are dangerous structures during a bear market
7: If these people can't buy in, there will be outflows when the ETF appears
8: Additionally, if a bear market begins, a chain sell-off will occur
9: The U.S. cannot control inflation and will stop cutting interest rates
$BTC
I believe that the most important prerequisite for a super bull market (altcoin season) is: unlimited QE
As long as this unique condition does not appear, altcoin season is just a dream
Additionally, with Trump appointing a hawkish Federal Reserve chairman, his operational approach highlights one key point:
Opposition to QE!
All altcoins falling below the lowest price of 1011 is just an appetizer for the beginning of the bear market (except for 0.001 ATOM)
$BTC
$ETH
As long as this unique condition does not appear, altcoin season is just a dream
Additionally, with Trump appointing a hawkish Federal Reserve chairman, his operational approach highlights one key point:
Opposition to QE!
All altcoins falling below the lowest price of 1011 is just an appetizer for the beginning of the bear market (except for 0.001 ATOM)
$BTC
$ETH
From October to November last year, Bitcoin peaked at 126,000, which can be said to be equivalent to the last escape opportunity at 69,000 in November 2021. After that, in 2022, the FTX collapse occurred, FTT went to zero, and Solana dropped to a low of $8 each. However, during the last bull market, many smart individuals still believed in an eternal bull market. They thought that if it weren't for the FTX collapse, there would be an eternal bull market. In my view, the FTX collapse was just part of the four-year cycle of bull to bear transition. I really cannot understand why there are such naïve individuals who believe that the crypto market will always rise without falling. Even in the precious metals market, an eternal bull market is absolutely impossible, let alone for a virtual item that is originally just a string of code.
$BTC
$BTC
I have always felt that the vast majority of altcoins will drop below the flash crash low price of that day on 1011, and now it's getting closer and closer 😂
$ETH
$ETH
$BTC
I said, some people in the cryptocurrency world, stop whining all day long about how Bitcoin isn't rising, comparing it to the gold market. Is the bear market's lowest price of fifteen thousand rising to 120,000 not enough to satisfy you?
Control your ugly greed and know when to stop.
I said, some people in the cryptocurrency world, stop whining all day long about how Bitcoin isn't rising, comparing it to the gold market. Is the bear market's lowest price of fifteen thousand rising to 120,000 not enough to satisfy you?
Control your ugly greed and know when to stop.
One of the main characteristics of the bear is not believing that this is a bear market.
When I see someone say that this kind of rise in gold will also appear in Bitcoin, I find it truly ridiculous. Can't you see the gains of Bitcoin in the weekly and monthly charts of 2025? Your big cake's highlight moment was already exhausted last year. Bitcoin's lowest point in the bear market of 2022 was $15,400, rising to this cycle's peak of $126,000, an increase of over 700% (pure profit). Even after such a rise, it still doesn't satisfy the appetite of those brainless people. From a price of $15,000 to over $120,000, in the eyes of those idiots, it seems to exist like a fart. From the historical bull market cycles, Bitcoin's gain multiples have long completed the mission of the bull market cycle. As a result, just because there is no altcoin season to fulfill their dreams of getting rich, some people arrogantly ignore this rise. Last year, when Bitcoin rebounded several times back to $120,000, many people, upon seeing $120,000, wanted $300,000. If they saw $300,000, wouldn't they want $500,000 worth of Bitcoin?
$BTC
$ETH
$BTC
$ETH
After experiencing many painful lessons and gaining valuable insights in altcoins, I have come to realize a reality:
The true purpose of many project teams issuing altcoins and playing with concepts is to sell coins for profit. That's right, it's to sell the altcoins they hold. The number of projects that genuinely adopt the blockchain revolutionary mindset is almost zero, which is why 99% of altcoins ultimately end up at zero.
Moreover, a common trait among most altcoin project teams is that they pretend their projects are aimed at long-term growth.
It seems these people are using their actions to maintain the value of the 80/20 rule, which has led to the extremely rare phenomenon of genuine hundredfold or thousandfold altcoins.
Additionally, every time a relatively hot altcoin project goes public, there will always be a group of people who treat this altcoin as a mark that will change their lives. This phenomenon occurs almost every time an altcoin is launched.
There is always a group of retail investors who believe that the next second after selling this altcoin, millions of wealth will immediately slip past them, thinking that the moment they sell, there will be an instant surge, and the so-called 'floor price' will bid farewell to them forever.
Whenever I see such retail investors, I feel like I'm looking in the mirror at my former self.
These retail investors love to shout bullish comments without any logic, indulging in wishful thinking.
Whenever there is a downturn, some infatuated individuals would rather believe it is a washout than consider it a 95% drop before a mid-cycle rebound.
$BTC
$ETH
The true purpose of many project teams issuing altcoins and playing with concepts is to sell coins for profit. That's right, it's to sell the altcoins they hold. The number of projects that genuinely adopt the blockchain revolutionary mindset is almost zero, which is why 99% of altcoins ultimately end up at zero.
Moreover, a common trait among most altcoin project teams is that they pretend their projects are aimed at long-term growth.
It seems these people are using their actions to maintain the value of the 80/20 rule, which has led to the extremely rare phenomenon of genuine hundredfold or thousandfold altcoins.
Additionally, every time a relatively hot altcoin project goes public, there will always be a group of people who treat this altcoin as a mark that will change their lives. This phenomenon occurs almost every time an altcoin is launched.
There is always a group of retail investors who believe that the next second after selling this altcoin, millions of wealth will immediately slip past them, thinking that the moment they sell, there will be an instant surge, and the so-called 'floor price' will bid farewell to them forever.
Whenever I see such retail investors, I feel like I'm looking in the mirror at my former self.
These retail investors love to shout bullish comments without any logic, indulging in wishful thinking.
Whenever there is a downturn, some infatuated individuals would rather believe it is a washout than consider it a 95% drop before a mid-cycle rebound.
$BTC
$ETH
This is me testing the waters by buying less than 3u of the altcoin EIGEN on February 22, 2025, and I have held it for almost a whole year.
Now, my unrealized loss exceeds 70%, and it's still spot.
2.89U is left with 0.46$ , and I am very glad that I only bought two or three U, as I can feel how bad the altcoin situation is.
Apart from this, I have never held onto any altcoins for a long time,
I can say that I am luckier than 99% of people,
Some people bought the dip on altcoins for 15000U, with an unrealized loss exceeding 90%, and are left with over 1000u.
Many people are trapped with a 90% loss due to their belief in an altcoin season and have paid a high price.
My current viewpoint is that there will be no altcoin season,
Unless my 70% unrealized loss turns into +1% (a positive number), I will not believe there will be an altcoin season.
But what needs to be considered now is:
macroeconomics, inflation, rising prices, interest rate issues, and Japan's market economy issues, whether the U.S. will provide liquidity to the crypto market, and unlimited QE (like the liquidity in the 2021 bull market).
Many people know nothing about this, and most are just closing their eyes and shouting bull market.
Now, my unrealized loss exceeds 70%, and it's still spot.
2.89U is left with 0.46$ , and I am very glad that I only bought two or three U, as I can feel how bad the altcoin situation is.
Apart from this, I have never held onto any altcoins for a long time,
I can say that I am luckier than 99% of people,
Some people bought the dip on altcoins for 15000U, with an unrealized loss exceeding 90%, and are left with over 1000u.
Many people are trapped with a 90% loss due to their belief in an altcoin season and have paid a high price.
My current viewpoint is that there will be no altcoin season,
Unless my 70% unrealized loss turns into +1% (a positive number), I will not believe there will be an altcoin season.
But what needs to be considered now is:
macroeconomics, inflation, rising prices, interest rate issues, and Japan's market economy issues, whether the U.S. will provide liquidity to the crypto market, and unlimited QE (like the liquidity in the 2021 bull market).
Many people know nothing about this, and most are just closing their eyes and shouting bull market.
From the very beginning, I have been disgusted by the Chinese names of meme coins, so I have never touched them, especially those idiots who seriously analyze this and that about Chinese coins while frequently posting explanations about them. There are also quite a few people looking for the future in these coins. The obvious things about Chinese coins have already been named in Chinese; what kind of people are playing with them? Is there any foreigner? What is the final outcome of projects that are heavily domestically flavored? Don't you have a sense of this? Including the artificial bull market in March 2025, I also never touch things like CZ's cauliflower dog. Anyone with a bit of intelligence can understand how strong the large holders' chips and control over the market are in such artificial bull market products and what the final outcome of the projects is. Do I still need to say it? The conclusions I draw are not temporary thoughts, nor are they discrimination against Chinese; they are a truth that most people understand, which is that the final outcome of domestically produced projects → death
$BTC
$ETH
$BTC
$ETH
Every cycle is a deliberately fabricated hypocritical narrative, describing Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset; this logic is fundamentally flawed. The true purpose is to create a safe-haven narrative to fool others into taking the bait and lifting certain people up. Let me ask, who would consider an investment product that drops 70% to 80% in every bear market as a safe-haven?
When real problems arise in the world, people will inevitably choose gold instead of Bitcoin; their bubbles and lies will naturally be burst.
$BTC
$ETH
When real problems arise in the world, people will inevitably choose gold instead of Bitcoin; their bubbles and lies will naturally be burst.
$BTC
$ETH
Some people just keep saying this time is different, every time is different, yet the result is always the same.
Please, some people should check the actual data (QE, inflation, interest rate hikes) before fantasizing about altcoin season.
They yearn for cryptocurrency to break free from the traditional rule of an 80% crash.
Is it your first day in the crypto world?
Since entering the market at the end of 2020, I have only experienced one bull-bear cycle and can understand such a simple truth, while some people do not realize that they treat the crypto market as a 50% winning lottery ticket.
They have said “different” a thousand times, but what is called “different” is actually because the altcoin season did not come; their greed was not satisfied, which drives them to say “this time is different” to continue fantasizing about their altcoin season.
The cyclicality of cryptocurrency remains consistent,
Strong cyclicality ≠ Strong altcoin season rules.
Cyclicality refers to the Bitcoin cycle rules
And not the altcoin season cycle rules.
By the way, let's take a look at the increase of altcoins in 2021 compared to the prices in 2020; how much increase is still unfulfilled?
It’s not just about being filled with passionate enthusiasm.
How much percentage has the spot market lost, how much have you lost, don’t you have any idea?
$BTC
$ETH
Please, some people should check the actual data (QE, inflation, interest rate hikes) before fantasizing about altcoin season.
They yearn for cryptocurrency to break free from the traditional rule of an 80% crash.
Is it your first day in the crypto world?
Since entering the market at the end of 2020, I have only experienced one bull-bear cycle and can understand such a simple truth, while some people do not realize that they treat the crypto market as a 50% winning lottery ticket.
They have said “different” a thousand times, but what is called “different” is actually because the altcoin season did not come; their greed was not satisfied, which drives them to say “this time is different” to continue fantasizing about their altcoin season.
The cyclicality of cryptocurrency remains consistent,
Strong cyclicality ≠ Strong altcoin season rules.
Cyclicality refers to the Bitcoin cycle rules
And not the altcoin season cycle rules.
By the way, let's take a look at the increase of altcoins in 2021 compared to the prices in 2020; how much increase is still unfulfilled?
It’s not just about being filled with passionate enthusiasm.
How much percentage has the spot market lost, how much have you lost, don’t you have any idea?
$BTC
$ETH
Tom Lee's large position in leeks has been trapped by Ethereum for over 4 billion dollars, and now he can't find a buyer. He's pretending to be a diamond hand, claiming he will never sell, so he started playing with staking, which made me laugh.
$ETH
$ETH
MicroStrategy's current price is 173.71 USD, with a daily increase of +1.64%, and a decrease of -42% over the past 3 months.
Bitcoin peaked at 126000 and fell to 80000 recently, a decrease of 37%.
It has fluctuated to 91000 now, still showing a decrease of 27%.
Those who are trapped at the top need a price increase of 38% to break even.
Ethereum peaked at 4950, fell to 2600, with a decrease of 47%.
It has fluctuated to 3100 now, still showing a decrease of 37%.
Those trapped at the top need a price increase of 58% to break even.
The groups trapped above were previously lured into traps by FOMO and are also the retail investors of the altcoin season.
Bitcoin's bear market bottom in 2022 was at 15400, rising to a peak of 126000. Those who escaped at the top made a pure profit of 700%. Now, with liquidity in the crypto market depleted, it is enough to show that this cycle has completed its bull market mission, and it also indicates that the bull market of this cycle has moved far away from us.
The deep bear market engine is stirring, and we only need to watch those who yearn for wealth through spot trading slowly fade away in this process of transitioning between bull and bear markets.
I advise those who are obsessed with the altcoin season to rein in their greed. The crypto market does not have to have an altcoin season in every cycle; this market does not owe you anything.
The current altcoin prices, compared to the prices before the explosion in the crypto market in 2020, still have dozens or even hundreds of times of increase. Without digesting these increases, it is difficult to achieve a hundredfold rise.
Bitcoin peaked at 126000 and fell to 80000 recently, a decrease of 37%.
It has fluctuated to 91000 now, still showing a decrease of 27%.
Those who are trapped at the top need a price increase of 38% to break even.
Ethereum peaked at 4950, fell to 2600, with a decrease of 47%.
It has fluctuated to 3100 now, still showing a decrease of 37%.
Those trapped at the top need a price increase of 58% to break even.
The groups trapped above were previously lured into traps by FOMO and are also the retail investors of the altcoin season.
Bitcoin's bear market bottom in 2022 was at 15400, rising to a peak of 126000. Those who escaped at the top made a pure profit of 700%. Now, with liquidity in the crypto market depleted, it is enough to show that this cycle has completed its bull market mission, and it also indicates that the bull market of this cycle has moved far away from us.
The deep bear market engine is stirring, and we only need to watch those who yearn for wealth through spot trading slowly fade away in this process of transitioning between bull and bear markets.
I advise those who are obsessed with the altcoin season to rein in their greed. The crypto market does not have to have an altcoin season in every cycle; this market does not owe you anything.
The current altcoin prices, compared to the prices before the explosion in the crypto market in 2020, still have dozens or even hundreds of times of increase. Without digesting these increases, it is difficult to achieve a hundredfold rise.
$BTC
Bitcoin's bear market bottomed at over 15,000 in 2022, rising to this year's peak of 126,000, with a remarkable increase of 700%. Aside from the foolish and the bad, who would still fantasize about a bull market? 😃
Seeing the bear is the closest to reality.
Bitcoin's bear market bottomed at over 15,000 in 2022, rising to this year's peak of 126,000, with a remarkable increase of 700%. Aside from the foolish and the bad, who would still fantasize about a bull market? 😃
Seeing the bear is the closest to reality.
On January 10, 2026, around 11 PM (UTC), a victim lost over $282 million worth of Litecoin (LTC) and Bitcoin (BTC) due to a hardware wallet social engineering scam.
The attacker started exchanging the stolen Litecoin and Bitcoin for Monero (XMR) through multiple instant exchanges, causing the price of Monero to surge.
Additionally, the attacker bridged Bitcoin to Ethereum, Ripple, and Litecoin through Thorchain.
Stolen addresses (2.05 million Litecoin, 1459 Bitcoin):
bc1qluxw46r55wf3dnk9c652vrt4duadm3hpuktf86
bc1qpsmh26ja0fzzf286zulmt9eywujc2pggj40wzm
ltc1qly43c2prj4c2e85dcspzpjd36jnapnenldnr70
The attacker started exchanging the stolen Litecoin and Bitcoin for Monero (XMR) through multiple instant exchanges, causing the price of Monero to surge.
Additionally, the attacker bridged Bitcoin to Ethereum, Ripple, and Litecoin through Thorchain.
Stolen addresses (2.05 million Litecoin, 1459 Bitcoin):
bc1qluxw46r55wf3dnk9c652vrt4duadm3hpuktf86
bc1qpsmh26ja0fzzf286zulmt9eywujc2pggj40wzm
ltc1qly43c2prj4c2e85dcspzpjd36jnapnenldnr70
If there is no formal QE this year, Bitcoin will drop below 50,000.
The fluctuations of Bitcoin at that time will mostly align with the values of highs and lows.
This time, there won't be any significant changes.
The possibility of altcoins having separate trends will not exceed 5%.
Currently, the Bitcoin market is in a liquidity clearing phase.
Some people are looking at this while drawing K-line charts, shouting that it's a bull market.
Others are ignorantly shouting bull market.
The probability of turning to a bull market will not exceed 10%.
I believe that now is a time that requires clearing quantities.
In summary, if there is no formal, unlimited QE, and no concerns about easing, it is almost impossible to have an altcoin season.
The fluctuations of Bitcoin at that time will mostly align with the values of highs and lows.
This time, there won't be any significant changes.
The possibility of altcoins having separate trends will not exceed 5%.
Currently, the Bitcoin market is in a liquidity clearing phase.
Some people are looking at this while drawing K-line charts, shouting that it's a bull market.
Others are ignorantly shouting bull market.
The probability of turning to a bull market will not exceed 10%.
I believe that now is a time that requires clearing quantities.
In summary, if there is no formal, unlimited QE, and no concerns about easing, it is almost impossible to have an altcoin season.
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