SVIATOSLAV GUSEV

CLARITY on Sep 15 is not the law, but cloture at 60 votes. Polymarket is already pricing passage in 2026 at around 13–15%, and Bernstein expects −10–25% for $BTC if it fails. The calendar risk is closer than it seems. The numbers. Senate: cloture on the motion to proceed on H.R. 3633 at 14:15 ET on Sep 15, threshold 60. House 294–134 (July 2025), Banking 15–9 (May 2026). With 53 GOP seats, at least 7 Democrats are needed (more if some Republicans defect). Polymarket on the bill in 2026: ~13–15% (it was ~82% in February); Kalshi ~91% that a vote before Oct 1 will even happen. Bernstein: on a fail, near-term −10–25% for $BTC. Yahoo $BTC ~79 600$. At the same time, since Aug 18 the SEC has been rolling out Regulation Crypto Assets — agency rules, not statute. My take: the tape is trading NFP and the Sep 16 FOMC, while the procedural clock ticks one day earlier. Cloture ≠ passage, but 59 votes almost certainly bury the bill until 2029. The skepticism in prediction markets is already priced in — the upside surprise from getting 60 votes matters more than yet another “expected” fail. There will be no vacuum: without Congress, what remains is enforcement + reversible rulemaking. Question: for $BTC, is the Sep 15 cloture itself more important, or the fact that the market has already priced the 2026 bill at around 13–15%?

NFP 162k vs ~55k — $BTC wiped the wick from 82 240$ below 80k, but spot ETFs still took in +174,6$ million on Friday. Macro hit price, not the institutional bid. The numbers. BLS August: payrolls +162k (consensus ~53–56k), unemployment 4.1%, July revised up. Yahoo $BTC ~79 600$ (day ~79 480–79 755$; Friday high ~82 240$). CME FedWatch for the Sept 16 FOMC: ~58.6% for +25 bps / ~41.4% hold (before NFP it was ~50/50 after Waller). Farside/SoSoValue Sept 4: spot BTC ETF +174,6$ million (IBIT +117.4$, FBTC +57.2$) — third day in a row after Sept 3 +730,8$ million; category AUM ~101$ billion. My take: yesterday’s question, “Does NFP confirm the ETF bid or risk bringing back hawkish FedWatch?” got answered both ways at once. The price got hit by higher hike odds, but the spot market still put 175$ million in on the day of blowout payrolls. This is not “oil risk-off 2.0” and not an end to the bid — it’s a weekend-thin tape around 80k until CPI and the Sept 15–16 FOMC. A strong CPI will cement the 58% hike probability and test ~78k; a weak one will turn 82k back into support, not a wick. Question: for $BTC, is it more important that spot ETFs keep inflows for a third day after hawkish NFP, or the next CPI before FOMC?

BlackRock fixes ETHA with a 1-for-3 reverse stock split starting October 6 — and the spot $ETH ETF, after the earlier glitch, has already returned +68$ million in Thursday trading. Pumping and flows are diverging. Figures. SEC 8-K / iShares: ETHA 1-for-3, record date October 5, trading with the split from October 6; Balchunas — spread from ~7 to ~2 bps. Farside: 2 on 48,2$ million, 3 Sep +68$ million. $ETH ~2 520$ (day ~+5%). For comparison: Bitwise BSOL at the end of August first crossed 1$ billion in AUM (~10 months since Oct’25); the SOL ETF category then was ~1,49$ billion. $SOL ~104. My take: the split isn’t a signal that “$ETH was written off,” but liquidity mechanics after the price drop. When after −48$ million, the next day they put +68$ million back, while $SOL products live in the billions in AUM — institutions are laying tracks for the next cycle, not writing obituaries for altcoins. Risk is only noise creation around October 6, not a reversal of the demand. Question: for $ETH, is a smooth ETHA split on October 6 more important, or will the alt-ETF demand be sustained after today’s NFP?

$BTC removed ~415$ m short positions and touched 82k — amid spot ETF +730,8$ m in the session and FedWatch, where the hike probability slid from ~70% to ~50/50 before today’s NFP. Numbers. Coinbase ~81,100$. Farside Sep 3: spot BTC ETF +730,8$ m (IBIT +454$, ARKB +137.7$, FBTC +74.4$) — the largest day since January. CoinGlass for ~24h: liquidations ~510$ m, of which shorts ~415$ m. CME FedWatch for FOMC Sep 16: ~50% for +25 bps (yesterday it reached ~70%) after Waller’s comments. Today’s NFP: consensus ~55–58k after July −23k; unemployment 4.1%. My take: this is not “oil risk-off” being reversed. TradFi bought the rate discount ahead of the data. When, in a day, spot adds 730$ m, and shorts are burning at 415$ m, the price is trading the probability of a hike—not Hormuz. A strong NFP could flip the hike odds back to 70% and eat half of the rally; a weak one will keep 82k as a floor, not just a wick. Question: for today’s NFP, what matters more for $BTC — confirmation of the ETF bid or the catalyst to challenge the hawkish FedWatch?

$ETH spot ETF cut a 12-day run of inflows: −48$ mln on Wednesday — the same day, the $BTC ETF returned +101$ mln. Not an exit from crypto, but a tightening of the rate.

Numbers. SoSoValue: the series delivered ~1,62$ bn over 12 sessions; Sep 2 −48$ mln (ETHA −53.4$, FETH −26.2$, ETHE −23.5$; ETHB ~+53$ partially offset). The $XRP ETF was also −7,2$ mln, ending an 11-day streak (~170$ mln). $ETH ~2 400$ (Yahoo). CME FedWatch for the FOMC on Sep 16: ~60% for +25 bps (range 3.75–4.00%) vs ~36% a week ago. UST 10Y ~4.78%.

My take: when the market starts pricing in the first rate hike since 2023, alt-ETF streaks break before Bitcoin’s. Institutions didn’t “leave” — they kept $BTC as the core and trimmed $ETH/$XRP while the discount rate is rising. Friday’s NFP and CPI on Sep 11 will determine whether this is just a pause or a new regime.

Question: after the $ETH ETF streak breaks, is it closer to a pause ahead of the data, or a prolonged “only $BTC” phase?

$BTC around 77 850$ after a break toward ~76 400: oil has pulled back slightly from yesterday’s highs, but risk-off hasn’t been removed yet — today’s jobs report is before the FOMC on Sep 16.

Numbers. Yahoo ~77 850$ (day ~76 994–78 094$). Brent ~95,1$ / WTI ~90,5$ (Reuters, morning Sep 3; yesterday’s settle ~95,6$ / ~91$). Spot BTC ETF: AUM after Sep 1 ~97,1$ B (late-August peak ~99,6$ B); August inflows ~3,5$ B. Aug 31 +217$ M → Sep 1 −236,5$ M (IBIT −201$) → Sep 2 again +101$ M.

My take: the market isn’t really about whether the “August ETF bid” broke, but how long oil at $95+ keeps the inflation shock in place. As of Sep 2, it has already clawed back part of the outflow — a flush, not a trend change. Soft jobs today could give $BTC air to 78k faster than any speech about Hormuz.

Question: does $BTC today depend more on oil/Hormuz or on NFP ahead of the September FOMC?

Robinhood Chain made $2,66$ million in app revenue in a single day and overtook Hyperliquid ($1,70$ million) and $ETH ($1,28$ million). Only $SOL is ahead—$5,07$ million. 88% of revenue comes from three apps: GMGN, Pons, and Uniswap. Memecoins and launchpads, not stock tokens that Robinhood sells. Over the last 30 days, Hyperliquid is still ahead: $53,41$ million versus $23,23$ million for Robinhood Chain. A daily flip ≠ a structural breakthrough. My take: L2 on Arbitrum Orbit can capture the fee stream, but the base is narrow. As long as US users don’t have Stock Tokens, this is a headline for HOOD, not a new Ethereum. Question: will memecoin revenue sustain the network, or is it a one-off spike?

September 16 Circle brings Arc to public mainnet. Not another L1 for retail: gas in $USDC, with the network run by BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, DTCC, and another 8 institutions—plus Circle itself.

Numbers. $USDC in circulation is ~74$ billion (as of Aug 30). On the private mainnet there are already 100+ builders. BUIDL BlackRock — about 2,8$ billion — is expected on Arc: subscription, redemption, and deployment in a single environment. DTCC promises tokenization of DTC assets on Arc in the second half of 2027. While $BTC trades like a macro asset, the settlement layer moves to a permissioned network where the validator is Visa, not a miner.

Question: In a year will Arc become the settlement backbone for institutions—or just another “institutional L1” waiting in line?

Hyperliquid integrated AQAv2: 90% of revenue from roughly 5$ billion $USDC on the platform goes to $HYPE buybacks. Validators delivered 69.08%.

Assistance Fund has already bought back 45.07 million $HYPE for approximately 1.1$ billion, with an average price of about 24.90. The first payment under the new scheme is October 3. Estimated USDC flow: 135–160$ million per year, on top of buybacks from fees.

But the old engine is losing pressure: monthly buybacks from fees fell from about 111$ million to 37$ million. At the same time, 519,480 $HYPE was taken off staking—about 28.6$ million.

My take: this isn’t “just another burn.” It’s an attempt to replace fat trading fees with a percentage taken from someone else’s stablecoin. It will work only if 5$ billion $USDC doesn’t go anywhere and the rates don’t collapse. Until October 3, it’s a presentation, not P&L.

$BTC lives on inflows. $HYPE now also depends on whether $USDC funds the buyback. Which is more reliable by autumn?

Metaplanet transferred 3,000 $BTC to Coinbase Prime in one day. That's about 237$ mln.

The official holdings are still 43,000 BTC. The average entry price is $96,191; spot is around 78–80k. Lookonchain separately notes: Prime is custody, credit, and trading—not a sell cheque.

The $BTC in these transfers didn’t even budge: the range was 77.8–79.8k.

My take: on August 12, they already moved 5,014 BTC “between custodians.” The CEO said they hadn’t sold anything. Repeating the “dump” narrative after every on-chain alert is pointless. But 3,000 coins on Prime when the price is below their entry—that can’t just be moved shelf-to-shelf anymore. Either they’re preparing Superplanet (2,100 BTC in Q4), or they’re tapping for dollar liquidity. Until there’s a new treasury update, the numbers stay put. No intent.

Who sells when the treasury is moving to Coinbase: the market or the nerves?

$SOL cut emissions by 0.334 points — and the price still fell.

The first mandatory on-chain vote has closed: SGP-0002 passed with 67.001% against a threshold of 66.667%. For 176.29 million $SOL, voted against: 66.19 million; abstained: 20.63 million. Quorum: 60.7%. With 70 minutes left, the proposal was losing by 58 million $SOL: Kraken sent ~8.9 million into “against,” then returned ~8.1 million into “for.”

15% → 30% annual disinflation. Phase 1.5% is not in 2032, but around 2029. Over six years, emissions will be lower by ~18.9 million $SOL — about 2$ trillion at today’s 103. This is a mandate, not a button: SIMD-0550 is still in Review. In parallel, the fee-burn (SGP-0003) did not pass — 53.9%.

My take: while $BTC is trading with the Fed, $SOL voted for its own monetary policy. The market has already priced this in. Staking will compress: in the third year ~2.25% versus ~5.25% along the old trajectory. Without SIMD activation, this is a headline, not a monetary fact.

Are you holding $SOL for staking, or for the idea that they’ll print less of it?

$ETH and $BTC diverged by ETF flows—and this isn’t just noise from a single day.

Spot Ethereum ETFs: 10 consecutive trading days of inflows (Aug 17–27), totaling about 1,42$ billion. Peak Aug 27 — 225,8$ million, the highest since October 2025. BlackRock’s ETHA took about 1,02$ billion, or ~72% of the entire run. Cumulatively since the launch of the ETH ETF, net inflows are already over 12$ billion.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Aug 28: an outflow of about 202$ million—cut short a 9-day streak of inflows. Against the backdrop of cumulative 54$ billion for $BTC, this is minor, but the timing with the $ETH divergence matters.

My take: the rotation into “altcoins with institutional inflows” is visible in the numbers, not in tweets. As long as $BTC is hitting macro headwinds and a liquidation overhang, capital is still continuing to enter $ETH through the wrapper. It doesn’t mean $BTC is weak forever—it means allocators already know how to choose where to put the next dollar.

Who’s right: those rotating into $ETH now, or those waiting until $BTC becomes a magnet for all flows again?

After Jackson Hole, the market took the shoulder down within a day.

CoinGlass in 24h: about 487,7$ million liquidations, affecting almost 97.7k traders. Over 200$ million closed in the first hour after the speech. Longs were chewed through by more than 360$ million; about 141$ million went to $BTC. The price jumped from ~81.3k down to ~76.9k, then rebounded to ~77.5–77.7k. The probability of a rate hike in September surged from ~35% to ~60%.

At the same time, gold and silver lost more than 700$ billion in market cap. Two-year Treasuries — at a monthly high. Macro is setting the pace again, not on-chain.

My take: this isn’t the “end of the trend,” it’s a cleanup of an overheated long. Right before, hundreds of millions were poured into spot BTC ETFs — and then they immediately got hit in derivatives. Spot and leverage live in different worlds. Next, the key factors are inflation and jobs data—not beautiful words from a podium.

What matters more to you for the next two weeks: the meeting on September 16 or the $BTC level at 75k?

Stablecoins are inflating again. In two weeks, market capitalization is up by 4,1$ billion, of which 2,37$ billion came in over seven days. This is the first two-week increase since mid-May. From May to August 11, the stablecoin market shrank by roughly 16,1$ billion. Now it’s a reversal: a new dollar is entering the market, not just moving around $BTC. $BTC has returned 2,500$. There are 42.4 million $ETH staked

Schwab expanded its menu yesterday: over the next few months, Schwab Crypto will add $SOL, Avalanche, and Chainlink. Right now it only has $BTC and $ETH — the platform has been live since May. Under these accounts there are 13,04$ trillion in client assets and 39.9 million brokerage accounts as of July 31. The fee is 0.75% per trade. New York and Louisiana are not included. There is no listing yet — it’s a plan, not a “buy” button. After the $SOL news, the price moved above $105; it’s now around $106. $BTC is trading near 80k after yesterday’s 81k. The ETF has been approved for $BTC and $ETH. Schwab provides the actual coin in the same account where the brokerage account is held. Another distribution channel, not “yet another ETF.” Who will be first to come in here — retail with Schwab, or those who have already been buying $SOL on the exchange?

Tomorrow at 16:00 Warsaw Kevin Warsh speaks on Jackson Hole for the first time as the Fed Chair. The topic is formally “fintech and payments.” But the market isn’t listening to that. Yesterday PCE: 3.7% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.6%. Core: 3.3%. The Fed’s target is still 2%, and it hasn’t budged for the fifth year in a row. At the last meeting, the committee split 9 to 3—the toughest split in almost 20 years. 30-year Treasuries are around 5.2%. $BTC is sitting at 78–79k after the surge. On September 16, in 19 days, there will already be a rate decision. Jackson Hole has broken the market in both 2010 and 2022. The question isn’t “will there be a cut in September.” The question is what reaction function Warsh will spell out out loud right now. What matters more for $BTC: a word about inflation, or a word about liquidity?

Today until ~17:30 Warsaw, validators $SOL are closing voting. SGP-0002: disinflation 15% → 30% per year. They don’t touch the 1.5% for the epoch; it will just reach 2029 instead of 2032. Minus about 18.9 million $SOL in emissions over six years. For it to pass—one-third of the stake participates and two-thirds vote “yes.” As of Aug 25, turnout was about 16.7%. It’s not enough. Solana Company’s listing has already said “no”: for them, almost all revenue comes from staking; faster emission cuts = lower income. For holders, less supply is beneficial. For validators, it isn’t. Who’s voting for the network here, and who’s voting for their APR?

Glassnode: August 19 — the fattest day of short liquidations since 2019. 85% of the total wipeout were shorts. Open interest in coins is down 11%. Funding after the spike is almost zero, and in places even negative. This isn’t a crowd of longs that just piled in. This was cleaned out—stops were taken and the position wasn’t rebuilt. Since June 30, wallets holding 1,000–10,000 $BTC have sold 50,500 coins. A batch of more than 100,000 (exchanges, custodians, ETFs) took 59,100. Short-Term Holder cost basis is now $70,000. Above it is a wall at 83–86k. $BTC is currently around 79,000. The question isn’t “will it hit 80k.” The question is who will buy through this wall without fresh leverage.

Grayscale launched $ZEC on NYSE Arca. Ticker ZCSH — the first spot ETF for a private coin. The fund holds up to 393,000 ZEC, more 260$ mln. Before that, the trust sat on OTC with a discount of up to 55%. Yesterday’s listing, today $ZEC down 7.6%, to 787$ after a peak of around 880. Futures have ballooned to 1,8$ billion in open interest. Classic: rumor bought, fact sold. But the fact itself matters more than the candle: a private PoW with a cap of 21 million is sitting on a national U.S. exchange. The U.S. put a privacy coin into an ETF. Is this a regime shift or a one-off loophole?

Bitmine holds 5 847 611 $ETH. This is 4.8% of the total issuance. Over the week, they bought an additional 32 447. Staked plus cash — 14,9$ bln. 87% is already in staking: 5 067 309 $ETH, about 12,4$ bln. They themselves draw 330$ mln per year from validators. The goal is 5% of the network—it's just a little bit away. This is no longer “a miner bought ether.” It’s a public company trying to become the network’s treasury. For $BTC, issuance is finite. For $ETH, there is still inflation and slashing. Is the market ready for a single share to control almost 5% of $ETH?