SVIATOSLAV GUSEV

Stablecoins are inflating again. In two weeks, market capitalization is up by 4,1$ billion, of which 2,37$ billion came in over seven days. This is the first two-week increase since mid-May. From May to August 11, the stablecoin market shrank by roughly 16,1$ billion. Now it’s a reversal: a new dollar is entering the market, not just moving around $BTC. $BTC has returned 2,500$. There are 42.4 million $ETH staked

Schwab expanded its menu yesterday: over the next few months, Schwab Crypto will add $SOL, Avalanche, and Chainlink. Right now it only has $BTC and $ETH — the platform has been live since May. Under these accounts there are 13,04$ trillion in client assets and 39.9 million brokerage accounts as of July 31. The fee is 0.75% per trade. New York and Louisiana are not included. There is no listing yet — it’s a plan, not a “buy” button. After the $SOL news, the price moved above $105; it’s now around $106. $BTC is trading near 80k after yesterday’s 81k. The ETF has been approved for $BTC and $ETH. Schwab provides the actual coin in the same account where the brokerage account is held. Another distribution channel, not “yet another ETF.” Who will be first to come in here — retail with Schwab, or those who have already been buying $SOL on the exchange?

Tomorrow at 16:00 Warsaw Kevin Warsh speaks on Jackson Hole for the first time as the Fed Chair. The topic is formally “fintech and payments.” But the market isn’t listening to that. Yesterday PCE: 3.7% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.6%. Core: 3.3%. The Fed’s target is still 2%, and it hasn’t budged for the fifth year in a row. At the last meeting, the committee split 9 to 3—the toughest split in almost 20 years. 30-year Treasuries are around 5.2%. $BTC is sitting at 78–79k after the surge. On September 16, in 19 days, there will already be a rate decision. Jackson Hole has broken the market in both 2010 and 2022. The question isn’t “will there be a cut in September.” The question is what reaction function Warsh will spell out out loud right now. What matters more for $BTC: a word about inflation, or a word about liquidity?

Today until ~17:30 Warsaw, validators $SOL are closing voting. SGP-0002: disinflation 15% → 30% per year. They don’t touch the 1.5% for the epoch; it will just reach 2029 instead of 2032. Minus about 18.9 million $SOL in emissions over six years. For it to pass—one-third of the stake participates and two-thirds vote “yes.” As of Aug 25, turnout was about 16.7%. It’s not enough. Solana Company’s listing has already said “no”: for them, almost all revenue comes from staking; faster emission cuts = lower income. For holders, less supply is beneficial. For validators, it isn’t. Who’s voting for the network here, and who’s voting for their APR?

Glassnode: August 19 — the fattest day of short liquidations since 2019. 85% of the total wipeout were shorts. Open interest in coins is down 11%. Funding after the spike is almost zero, and in places even negative. This isn’t a crowd of longs that just piled in. This was cleaned out—stops were taken and the position wasn’t rebuilt. Since June 30, wallets holding 1,000–10,000 $BTC have sold 50,500 coins. A batch of more than 100,000 (exchanges, custodians, ETFs) took 59,100. Short-Term Holder cost basis is now $70,000. Above it is a wall at 83–86k. $BTC is currently around 79,000. The question isn’t “will it hit 80k.” The question is who will buy through this wall without fresh leverage.

Grayscale launched $ZEC on NYSE Arca. Ticker ZCSH — the first spot ETF for a private coin. The fund holds up to 393,000 ZEC, more 260$ mln. Before that, the trust sat on OTC with a discount of up to 55%. Yesterday’s listing, today $ZEC down 7.6%, to 787$ after a peak of around 880. Futures have ballooned to 1,8$ billion in open interest. Classic: rumor bought, fact sold. But the fact itself matters more than the candle: a private PoW with a cap of 21 million is sitting on a national U.S. exchange. The U.S. put a privacy coin into an ETF. Is this a regime shift or a one-off loophole?

Bitmine holds 5 847 611 $ETH. This is 4.8% of the total issuance. Over the week, they bought an additional 32 447. Staked plus cash — 14,9$ bln. 87% is already in staking: 5 067 309 $ETH, about 12,4$ bln. They themselves draw 330$ mln per year from validators. The goal is 5% of the network—it's just a little bit away. This is no longer “a miner bought ether.” It’s a public company trying to become the network’s treasury. For $BTC, issuance is finite. For $ETH, there is still inflation and slashing. Is the market ready for a single share to control almost 5% of $ETH?

Spot BTC ETFs on Monday pulled in another 337.6$ million. Six trading days in a row, totaling 2.26$ billion. Best week since October 2025. But the year is still in the red: since January, these same funds are down 2.57$ billion. June accounted for 4.51$ billion, May for 2.43$ billion. August has simply started to eat away at the hole. $ETH funds are also in the green for the sixth day: yesterday 115.6$ million, and over six sessions 812.8$ million. For the year as a whole, it’s still down, about 1.3$ billion. The Fear & Greed Index is at 74, the highest since the same October. Back then, after a big inflow, the market broke. Now $BTC is around 80,000. The question isn’t “did it get in or not.” The question is whether it’s a reversal of the year or a bounce after the squeeze. Who’s looking at the week, and who at the year?

The US has started saving the bond market. And $BTC has already partially priced it in.

The yield on 30-year Treasuries jumped by 5.34%—the highest level since 2007. The Treasury announced it would buy back long-dated securities from 2$ mlrd to 4$ mlrd for the operation, and this may not be the ceiling. The buybacks haven’t started yet—scheduled for September 9.

The logic is simple. When risk-free yields are 5%+, why go into stocks and crypto. The Treasury creates demand for bonds → prices rise → yields fall → money starts looking for risk again.

The market promised this to itself even before it happened. Over the week, $BTC moved from 64k to 79k. It’s currently around 77,600. The promise is already priced in. If the buybacks really do inflate the market—then it’s a plus. If it turns out to be a bust—we’ll give back part of the gains.

What do you think, has #Bitcoin already priced everything in, or will September still give it another leg?

How the US «saved» Japan—and itself, too.

The yen was falling to 164 per dollar, the lowest in 40 years. The US itself stepped in to support a foreign currency. To buy yen, they hadn’t done this since 1998.

Japan is the largest foreign holder of US debt—about 1,14$ trillion in Treasuries. In spring, Tokyo already burned 73$ billion to defend the yen—and it still fell. The question is: where to get more dollars? Sell those very Treasuries. And if Japan starts offloading them, US yields will skyrocket. The lender’s problem becomes the borrower’s problem.

Workaround: Japan was allowed to borrow dollars against Treasuries as collateral, without selling them into the market. The US itself, to support the yen, sold euros—not dollars. They strengthened the yen without weakening the buck.

Formally, they were “saving” Tokyo. In reality—it's their own debt market. When you owe the world trillions, a creditor crisis is your crisis.

How does this hit $BTC? Through the same yields. As long as Japan is kept afloat, Treasuries don’t explode—and risk-on stays alive.

Who else thinks macro is «not about crypto»?

A historic moment: Tether finally gets a real audit for the first time.

The market’s main fear for years: what if $USDT isn’t fully backed? KPMG from the Big Four has issued a clean verdict on the 2025 reporting. Not a snapshot of wallets at a single date, but the full year: balances, revenue, flows, counterparties. Before a physical count of gold bars. Reserves exceed liabilities by 6.8$ billion.

Why so late? The Big Four has been avoiding crypto for years—too toxic a client after the 2021 fines. There were no proper standards for how to account for a mix of crypto, treasuries, and gold. Instead of an audit, there were attestations: a photo saying “the money is there right now.” Where it came from and where it went—those answers weren’t provided.

$USDT is the lifeblood of the market, with about 180$ billion in circulation. While backing was hanging on attestations, Tether risk was the systemic fear. For institutions, a Big Four audit is a ticket into a regulated world.

It doesn’t print liquidity and won’t move the price tomorrow. But it removes one of the last barriers between crypto and big money.

Do you believe that after this, $USDT will finally stop being called a pyramid?

What's going on with Strategy?

A month ago, Saylor started selling $BTC for the first time in a long while. Back then, you could have written it off as a one-off move. But summer showed otherwise: no. Since May, the company has sold 6,948 BTC for roughly 432$ million and officially gave itself the right to sell bitcoin whenever it needs dollars.

Saylor packaged it nicely. "Never sell your Bitcoin" — that was for the savers, not the board of directors. He personally hasn't sold a single satoshi. Strategy is a public company, not his wallet. In plain English: you HODL, and we pay dividends on the preferred shares here.

The market jerks every time, even though they sold less than 1% of the stack. Right now they hold more than 840,000 BTC.

What matters is not the headline "Saylor dumped." What matters is whether the pile is still growing by the end of the year. If net is still a buy, the thesis is alive. If by December sales are consistently larger than purchases, then the strategy has changed.

What do you think — is $BTC still a religion for them, or just a line on the balance sheet?

At the peak of the week, spot IBIT’s daily turnover was $4,4$ billion—its highest level in seven months. The shorts pushed the price down. But this is already a live order book of the fund, not a liquidation cascade. Without such spot activity, $BTC wouldn’t bounce back into the range. What do you think—will IBIT keep feeding $BTC, or was this a one-off spike?

Standard Chartered after this squeeze says that their target 100,000$ for $BTC by the end of the year may turn out to be too low. Back in winter, they themselves cut it from 150k. Banks love this: first they cut the forecast, then they catch up the price with words. $BTC still hasn’t even held above 80k. Do you believe in 100k this year or earlier?

While $BTC cools off from 79k, $HYPE has set a new high. Classic weekend behavior: bitcoin takes a breather, while alts are still getting tugged around. This isn’t a new cycle. It’s just where the remaining fuel is after the squeeze. Who’s holding $HYPE, and who has already moved back into #Bitcoin?

Over the weekend, around 110$ million liquidations were cleared for $BTC and $ETH—80% of them longs. The biggest window was about 06:00 for us: 29$ million for bitcoin, 33$ million for ether. On Thursday, they squeezed shorts. Today, they’re squeezing those who bought out of greed. Leverage doesn’t pick sides—it picks the foolish. Does anyone else still have a position on #Bitcoin after a week like this?

#Bitcoin is currently around 76,000$, $ETH around 2,387$. Since Friday’s 79,500$ , there hasn’t been a pullback on noise—rather, it’s a check to see whether the spot is alive. The weekends are thin/fragile. If 76k doesn’t hold, the next discussion will be about 75k—where the realized price for active holders lies. Do we hold 76k for $BTC or do we give way by the time of the U.S. open?

Spot ETH ETFs for the week took in 697$ mln. Friday alone contributed 185$ mln, the fifth day in a row in the green. Assets under management are already 14,3$ bln.

Institutions have moved into Bitcoin; now they’re clearly adding to Ethereum as well. This isn’t retail chasing memecoins.

What do you think—$ETH is the start of a rotation, or just the tail of $BTC?

On Friday, an ETF took $XRP worth 18,4$ million, and $SOL — 10$ million. XRP already has $1,33$ billion under management, while Solana has $1,12$ billion.

Small numbers next to bitcoin. But this is no longer “alts don’t get into funds.”

Do any of you believe in an ETF season for alts, or is this just dust?

While everyone’s watching the price of $BTC, there’s another story on the side: AI agents and authors on X could become the next big users of stablecoins.

This isn’t about a one-week price move. It’s about who will be paying when, on-chain, bots outnumber people.

What do you think—will $USDT grow stronger from this than #Bitcoin itself?