CRYPTO FORGE

A whale lost $20.4 million after investing $23 million in AI agent tokens on the Base blockchain, selling for just $2.58 million. This 88.77% drawdown stands as one of crypto’s largest single trade losses, with individual tokens dropping as much as 99%.

The extreme loss highlights rising fears of speculative bubbles in the AI token market. Here, hype and unclear use cases fuel extreme volatility across investment portfolios.

How a Whale Lost Over $20 Million on AI Agent Tokens

On-chain analytics platform Lookonchain tracked the whale’s portfolio across six AI agent tokens. The most significant loss was in FAI, which cost $9.87 million, a 92.31% drop. AIXBT resulted in a $7.81 million loss, representing an 83.74% decrease from the purchase price.

The remaining positions showed equally steep declines. BOTTO fell by $936,000, or 83.62%. POLY erased $839,000, plummeting 98.63%.

NFTXBT saw the steepest percentage drop, falling 99.13% and losing $594,000. MAICRO ended with a $381,000 loss, representing an 89.55% decline.

Cumulative profit and loss chart showing the whale’s sustained drawdown on AI agent tokens. Source: Coin Bureau on X

The investor’s wallet address now holds just $3,584 in assorted assets, mainly ETH and small holdings in BYTE, MONK, and SANTA. The dramatic exit highlights near-total losses from AI agent tokens.

AI Agent Token Speculation Under Scrutiny

The Base blockchain, from Coinbase, is a popular launchpad for AI crypto projects. However, the sector faces criticism for excessive hype and limited working products.

Many AI agent tokens lack real-world utility, leaving traders vulnerable to rapid gains and equally fast crashes.

Observers note that AI agent tokens often surge on promises rather than working use cases. Autonomous agents on the blockchain attract investor attention, but few projects deliver functional results.

As sentiment shifts, token holders face extreme risk due to thin liquidity and shallow utility.

“This might be one of the worst investments ever. A whale/institution spent $23M buying AI agent tokens on #Base and sold everything today for only $2.58M, resulting in a $20.43M(−88.77%) loss,” Lookonchain remarked.

The whale’s exit coincides with waning enthusiasm for AI tokens in early 2025, when the sector plunged 77%.

After a rush of AI-themed investments in late 2024, investors are reassessing as few projects meet their goals. This trend fuels further price drops, especially for tokens with concentrated ownership and little liquidity.

Risk Management: Lessons for Investors

The whale heavily concentrated funds in AI agent tokens on Base, lacking diversification and risk management.

Allocating $23 million across six correlated assets in one narrative increased systematic risk. As sentiment turned, all holdings fell, revealing the risk of concentrated positions.

Breakdown of losses across six AI agent tokens on Base blockchain. Source: Lookonchain

Professional traders typically limit exposure to avoid outsized losses from failing narratives. The lack of stop-losses or disciplined sizing let the whale’s losses spiral.

By the time positions were closed, regaining even break-even status would have required extraordinary returns. The situation illustrates how fast declines occur without thorough analysis and risk planning.

With NFTXBT and POLY losing over 98%, a major comeback appears unlikely.

It remains uncertain whether this signals broader trouble for AI agent tokens. Projects with strong technical teams and real development may weather the storm.

Tokens using AI hype without solid backing are likely to keep struggling as the market asks for results and not just promises.

Retail investors captured about 20% of US stock trading volume in Q3 2025, the second-highest level ever recorded. At the same time, the crypto market is experiencing the opposite trend, with institutional capital dominating as retail participation declines.

This divide between equities and digital assets raises important questions about market maturity, volatility, and the future direction of both asset classes as 2026 approaches.

Stocks Go Retail While Crypto Turns Institutional

The rise in retail investor activity marks a major change in equity market structure. According to data shared by the Kobeissi Letter, individual investors reached their second-highest trading share in history during Q3 2025, nearing the peak of the Q1 2021 meme stock surge.

Before 2020, average retail participation was about 15% for several years. Thus, this makes the current 20% figure quite significant.

Retail Investors Now Command 20% of US Stock Trading Volume. Source: X/The Kobeissi Letter

Retail participation has surpassed individual institutional categories. Long-only mutual funds and traditional hedge funds each accounted for about 15% of trading volume last quarter, or half their 2015 share. Furthermore, all fund categories, including quants, together made up just 31% in Q3.

“Retail investors are taking over the market at a historic pace,” The Kobeissi Letter stated.

Meanwhile, the crypto market now shows the reverse of the stock market’s composition. While retail investors fueled past bull runs, 2025 saw a clear shift to institutional dominance. JPMorgan, in its recent note, highlighted that retail participation in the market has fallen. According to the bank,

“Crypto is moving away from resembling a venture capital style ecosystem to a typical tradable macro asset class supported by institutional liquidity rather than retail speculation.”

It is worth noting that the crypto market’s drawdown has reduced demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and put substantial pressure on digital asset treasury (DAT) firms. That said, analysts indicate that buying interest has slowed rather than disappeared.

This dynamic is reflected in the growing gap between retail and institutional behavior. According to CryptoQuant data, institutional Bitcoin holdings continued to expand throughout 2025, while retail investors moved in the opposite direction.

Retail and Large Investor Bitcoin Holdings. Source: CryptoQuant Why This Contrast Matters

The market changes matter beyond participation rates. High retail activity in stock markets typically reflects a sentiment-driven environment where price action is increasingly influenced by short-term narratives, momentum chasing, and crowd behavior. When individual investors dominate trading, markets tend to become more reactive.

On the other hand, crypto analysts view institutional dominance as a sign of growing maturity and future stability. More institutional capital means deeper liquidity, more stable pricing, and (in theory) less volatility. Large institutions usually have longer time horizons and better risk management, which could allow for steadier price growth instead of wild swings.

Still, expectations for crypto remain cautious. Barclays projects 2026 as a down year for crypto, noting that in the absence of major catalysts, structural growth appears limited. While the US political climate has become more crypto-friendly this year, Barclays believes this shift has already been priced in by the market.

Thus, the divergence between equities and crypto highlights a structural shift in how risk is being expressed across markets. While rising retail participation is making stock trading more sentiment-driven, crypto’s growing institutional base points to increased maturity but more subdued momentum. Whether these differences are temporary or mark a lasting shift as 2026 nears remains to be seen.

HBAR is running out of time. The token is down nearly 2% over the past 24 hours and close to 10% for the week. In the process, HBAR price has broken several short-term support levels and is now hovering near $0.12.

This level is critical. HBAR is barely 1% above a breakdown zone that could drag the price toward $0.10. That move would translate into a 12% to 13% decline from current levels. But one bullish signal is still holding the structure together. If it fails, the downside could accelerate.

Big Money Stepping Away Weakens the Setup

The main source of pressure comes from how large HBAR holders are behaving.

This is visible through the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether big money is entering or exiting an asset by combining price movement with trading volume. When CMF is above zero, large buyers are active. When it falls below zero, the distribution is taking place.

For HBAR, CMF has deteriorated sharply. Since December 7, CMF has dropped by more than 400% and moved deep into negative territory. Earlier pullbacks still saw CMF stay positive, meaning buyers absorbed selling pressure. This time, that support is gone.

Big Money Dumping HBAR: TradingView

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There is also a clear bearish divergence. Between October 10 and December 14, the HBAR price formed higher lows, while the CMF formed lower lows. This shows that recent price stability was not backed by strong demand from large players.

In simple terms, price tried to hold up while big money quietly exited. That imbalance makes the HBAR price vulnerable.

One Bullish Signal Is Still Holding the Floor

Despite the weak big-money picture, one momentum indicator is still flashing a bullish sign.

That indicator is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength and speed of recent price moves. It helps identify when selling pressure may be getting exhausted. Readings near 30 usually suggest oversold conditions.

On HBAR’s daily chart, RSI has formed a bullish divergence. Between November 21 and December 14, the HBAR price made a lower low, while the RSI made a higher low. This is a classic bullish divergence and often appears as a trend reversal sign.

P.S. The HBAR price is in a clear downtrend, losing over 48% in the 3-month horizon.

Bullish Divergence In Play: TradingView

This tells us sellers are still pushing prices lower, but with less force each time. The decline continues, but the seller-driven momentum behind it is weakening. At the moment, this RSI divergence is the only bullish play HBAR has left.

HBAR Price Breaks Down or Turns the Tide?

Price action defines the final outcome. HBAR is trading below a descending trend line that has capped every rally for weeks. At the same time, price is sitting on a trend-based Fibonacci support near $0.12. That line acts as the base of the descending triangle pattern, completed by the descending trendline.

This zone is the last line of defense.

If $0.12 breaks decisively, the next major support sits near $0.10. That move would confirm a 12% to 13% breakdown and extend the bearish trend.

HBAR Price Analysis: TradingView

To stabilize, the HBAR price must reclaim $0.13. That level lines up with a key Fibonacci retracement zone and would signal buyers stepping back in.

A stronger shift would only come above $0.13. That would place the price back above the descending trend line and reset the structure from bearish to neutral.