CryptoChan

The indicator in the figure is the percentage of the number of Bitcoins that have been on the chain for less than 3 months after the weighted market capitalization of Bitcoin to the total over-the-counter circulation of Bitcoin.

This wave is stable

【 $BTC four-year cycle total mark series 71】

2012.06 broke through the orange line: 70 days later, reached the peak of the bull market recovery period
2015.10 broke through the orange line: 60 days later, reached the peak of the bull market recovery period
2019.05 broke through the orange line: 54 days later, reached the peak of the bull market recovery period
2023.03 broke through the orange line: 31 days later, reached the secondary peak of the bull market recovery period
2026.09 broke through the orange line: 3 days have passed

┌ Indicator Details ┐

Black line: Bitcoin circulating market value
Orange line: Bitcoin circulating market value 365-day moving average

Break through the orange line! This round of the “$BTC Bear-to-Bull Launch Phase” has officially come to an end 🎉

📌 The 2019 “Bear-to-Bull Launch Phase” lasted 74 days
📌 The 2023 “Bear-to-Bull Launch Phase” lasted 61 days
📌 The 2026 “Bear-to-Bull Launch Phase” lasted 62 days

┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐

Black line: Bitcoin circulating market cap
Orange line: 365-day moving average of Bitcoin circulating market cap
Blue line: 365-day moving average of the total market value of on-chain long-term holders’ holdings

【 $BTC four-year cycle total-cut series 70】

In the 2018 bear market, this indicator reached its lowest point: 6.6 months later to the peak of the Bitcoin bull market recovery period
In the 2022 bear market, this indicator reached its lowest point: 6.0 months later to the second-highest peak of the Bitcoin bull market recovery period
In the 2026 bear market, this indicator reached its lowest point: 2.7 months have already passed since now

┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐

The indicator at the bottom of the chart (SLRV) measures the ratio of Bitcoin’s short-term flow speed relative to the flow speed of long-term holders: = (24-hour realized HODL wave) ÷ (realized HODL wave from 6 months to 1 year)

【 $BTC four-year cycle total engraving series 69】

15–16 year bull market recovery phase: after the coin price broke above the orange line, it stayed around the orange line for 6.8 months

2023 bull market recovery phase: after the coin price broke above the orange line, it stayed around the orange line for 6.5 months

Current: the coin price has been above the orange line for 0.9 months

┌─ 🐼 Indicator details ─┐

Orange line: TMMP (True Market Mean Price). It measures the average buy-in cost of actively circulating bitcoins in the secondary market

【 $BTC four-year cycle total mark series 68】

2015 bear-market bottom, right side: after the red-to-green shift, 2.1 months to the peak of the bull-market recovery phase
2019 bear-market bottom, right side: after the red-to-green shift, 2.9 months to the peak of the bull-market recovery phase
2023 bear-market bottom, right side: after the red-to-green shift, 3.0 months to the secondary peak of the bull-market recovery phase
2026 bear-market bottom, right side: red-to-green has already lasted 0.9 months

┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐

The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the “Bitcoin short-term investor transfer-to-exchange profit/loss ratio,” i.e., the profit achieved when on-chain short-term investors move coins into an exchange ÷ realized losses (30-day moving average)

>1 (green): mainly profit-taking
<1 (red): mainly stop-loss / capitulation

【 $BTC four-year cycle total high-cut series 67】

2012.07: 34 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase peak
2015.11: 16 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase peak
2019.05: 53 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase peak
2023.02: 47 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase secondary peak

┌─ Indicator details ─┐

Purple line: the average buy price of BTC held on-chain for 1–3 months
Green line: the average buy price of BTC held on-chain for 3–6 months

【 $BTC four-year cycle total keystroke series 66】

June 2015: After the price breaks through the blue line, 183 days to reach the recovery peak
February 2019: After the price breaks through the blue line, 128 days to reach the recovery peak
January 2023: After the price breaks through the blue line, 182 days to reach the recovery peak
July 2026: Blue line broken for 58 days already

┌── Indicator Details ──┐

Black line: Bitcoin circulating market capitalization
Blue line: Bitcoin on-chain long-term holders' total market value, 365-day moving average

【 $BTC four-year cycle total cut series 65】

2015 bear bottom: this indicator, from the moment it lifts off zero after sticking to it, takes 113 days to reach the peak of the bull-market recovery phase.
2019 bear bottom: from the moment it lifts off zero after sticking to it, it takes 139 days to reach the peak of the bull-market recovery phase.
2022 bear bottom: from the moment it lifts off zero after sticking to it, it takes 103 days to reach the second-highest point of the bull-market recovery phase.
2026 bear bottom: it has already been 27 days since it lifted off zero after sticking to it.

┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐

The indicator at the bottom of the chart measures the momentum of the realized profit/loss ratio for Bitcoin short-term holders.

This indicator compares the “realized profit/loss ratio of short-term holders” with its “one-year moving average” to gauge the “acceleration (momentum)” of short-term fund gains and losses, thereby helping identify turning points in macro market trends.

When this indicator spikes sharply, it means that short-term investors are taking profits at a speed far exceeding the average level of the past year. This typically happens when market prices surge rapidly or during the peak mania of a bull market, reflecting that a large amount of recently accumulated profitable positions is being quickly distributed and liquidated.

【Bitcoin Bull Market Escape-Topping Countdown Series 05】

2015 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 1045 days to the great bull top
2019 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 1028 days to the great bull top
2022 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 1063 days to the great bull top
2026 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 59 days have passed

┌─ Indicator Details ─┐

Green line: The average buy price of $BTC for on-chain positions held for 6–12 months
Orange line: The average buy price of $BTC for on-chain positions held for 12–18 months

【 $BTC Bull market top countdown series 04】

📌 December 2019 green-orange golden cross: reaches the big bull top after 703 days
📌 November 2023 green-orange golden cross: reaches the big bull top after 696 days

┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐

Gray line: Bitcoin price
Green line: Average purchase price of BTC with an on-chain holding duration between 6 and 12 months
Orange line: Average purchase price of BTC with an on-chain holding duration between 12 and 18 months

【 $BTC four-year cycle total key series 64】

📌 May 2019: 50 days after the red-black crossover to the peak of the bull market recovery phase
📌 February 2023: 47 days after the red-black crossover to the second-highest peak of the bull market recovery phase
📌 August 2026: 22 days after the red-black crossover

┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐

Gray line: Bitcoin price
Red line: Average buy-in price of on-chain short-term holders of coin/pie crumbs
Black line: Bitcoin price 200-day moving average

【 $BTC four-year cycle total imprint series 63】

2015 Blue-Orange Crossover: 69 days later to the recovery peak
2019 Blue-Orange Crossover: 77 days later to the recovery peak
2023 Blue-Orange Crossover: 87 days later to the recovery secondary peak
2026 Blue-Orange Crossover: 24 days have passed

┌ Indicator Details ┐

The blue line is the ratio of “average buy-in cost of long-term coin holders” to “average buy-in cost of short-term coin holders”; the orange line is the blue line’s 60-day MA.

Blue-Orange crossovers often correspond to the turning point from bear to bull markets.

【 $BTC four-year cycle total engraving series 62】

2016 Niu top: This indicator reached a maximum of 39.2%
2019 Niu top: This indicator reached a maximum of 43.7%
2024 Niu top: This indicator reached a maximum of 44.7%
Current: This indicator has risen to 31.7%

┌─ 🐼 Indicator Details ─┐

The indicator at the bottom of the chart measures the proportion of “new funds/hot money” held for less than 3 months as a share of Bitcoin’s total realized market value across the entire network, used to reflect the level of market speculation and frenzy

【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Carving Series 61】

2019 Bull Market Rebound Phase: this indicator reached a peak of 72.8%
2023 Bull Market Rebound Phase: this indicator reached a peak of 69.1%
Current: this indicator has risen to 63.8%

┌── 🐼 On-Chain Data Details ──┐

The black line at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom shows the share of BTC’s circulating supply represented by the number of chips held by long-term holders on the Bitcoin chain that are currently in profit (floating gains)

【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Mark Series 60】

Sep 2015: After the price breaks the green line, 78 days to the recovery phase top
Apr 2019: After the price breaks the green line, 85 days to the recovery phase top
Jan 2023: After the price breaks the green line, 85 days to the recovery phase secondary top
Current: The price has already been above the green line for 18 days

┌─ Indicator Details ─┐

The green line is the average buy price (based on the UTXO version) of BTC whose on-chain holding duration is between 3 and 6 months.

A data phenomenon that needs special clarification: when it comes to the same 【Bitcoin realized price for coin-holding lots aged 3m-6m on-chain】, different data platforms surprisingly differ by $10,000! 📊

You can compare these two screenshots:

Figure 1: Glassnode shows the average price as high as $84,042
Figure 2: Coinglass shows it as $73,827

Many friends intuitively feel that Coinglass’s 73.8k is more reasonable. Because three to six months ago (i.e., from March to June this year), spot prices mostly traded in a range of 65k - 83k, so it’s hard for any calculated average to exceed 84k.

The core reason for this huge discrepancy isn’t that someone miscalculated—it's that the underlying calculation algorithms use different dimensions:

1️⃣ Glassnode: Address-based “high-position memory”

Glassnode’s Breakdown uses an address dimension. For example: if a certain address bought a large amount of BTC at a high price above 100k in October 2025, then as long as that address had even a tiny transfer-in or interaction during this year’s March to June period, the system will categorize the whole batch into the 3m-6m age bracket based on the last active time.
This means that a large amount of older coin lots carrying high-cost memory are counted into the recently active queue, passively pushing the average price up to 84k.

2️⃣ Coinglass: Pure UTXO real movement cost (UTXO-based)

Coinglass presents a purely UTXO perspective. It doesn’t look at address history—only strictly calculates the specific tokens that actually moved on-chain within the 3-6 month window, and then weights them by the spot price on the day they moved. Since the market prices during actual turnover in March to June were relatively lower, the calculated pure movement cost comes out to 73.8k, which aligns more with our real-time feel for the market at the time.

💡 One-sentence summary:

Glassnode (84k) = the aggregated historical cost of【holders】that were active in the last 3-6 months

Coinglass (73.8k) = the actual movement cost of the【coin lots】that truly changed hands in the last 3-6 months @Glassnode @Coinglass

【 $BTC four-year cycle total engraving series 59】

📌 April 2019: After Bitcoin broke above the orange-yellow line, 85 days to a recovery peak
📌 January 2023: After Bitcoin broke above the orange-yellow line, 85 days to a recovery secondary peak
📌 Current: Bitcoin has not yet broken above the orange-yellow line ($84,350)

┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐

The black line in the chart is the Bitcoin price line; the orange-yellow line is the average entry price line of the accumulated chips when holding duration is between 3 and 6 months

【 $BTC Bull market top-escape countdown series 03】

2018.12: After this indicator bottoms out, it takes 1060 days to reach the bull top
2022.10: After this indicator bottoms out, it takes 1076 days to reach the bull top
2026.06: This indicator has already bottomed out 79 days ago

┌─ Indicator details ─┐

The indicator at the bottom of the chart measures the ratio of the short-term Bitcoin circulation speed relative to the circulation speed of long-to-mid-term holders = (24-hour realized HODL wave) ÷ (realized HODL wave from 6 months to 1 year)

Already ❌

Year after year, another cycle has passed 🧘