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$PONS
After falling for so long, its market cap has finally reached an attractive valuation, and it’s starting to rebound. After yesterday’s sharp drop, I told the group to get in and buy the dip—and we caught the very bottom.

Recent Binance futures data shows a sharp rise in price and a slight decline in open interest (OI). But the drop in OI was mainly due to longs being liquidated first; only after shorts covered did the price start to rise. If the price keeps climbing while OI continues to increase, the rally may gradually shift from being driven by short covering to being driven by new positions. Large traders’ long positions still account for about 66.5%, which is relatively healthy.

In the spot market, aggressive buying is 25% higher than selling, indicating that the rally is supported by active buying—not just a price spike on low volume. A short squeeze could be in the cards.

Oil at $105—Is CPI About to Hit 3.6%?

#What September CPI Means for Crude Oil and Treasury Bonds

U.S. September CPI will be released at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on October 14. The market expects headline inflation to come in at 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4% in August, with core inflation around 2.4% to 2.5%. Put simply, the big jump in headline CPI is mainly driven by oil: Brent is up more than 70% this year and closed at $106.65 on Monday.

Personally, I’m more focused on the month-over-month core reading, which is expected to be 0.2%. The market is probably prepared for a high headline figure, but if core inflation comes in at 0.3%, the 10-year Treasury yield is very likely to push higher from around 5.19%. Talk of another rate hike at the policy meeting later this month could also resurface.

Oil prices, on the other hand, don’t pay much attention to CPI. They’re more sensitive to news from the Middle East and about Russian diesel.

My plan is to keep positions light before the data comes out. I won’t chase $BTC for now; I’ll wait for the core figure and take it from there.

With Treasury yields above 5%, the crypto market will have to get past that hurdle before it can make an independent move.

Eighty percent of shareholders cashed out first.

#Evernorth fell 1.05% on its Nasdaq debut $XRP $BTC

Evernorth (XRPN) surged more than 13% early in its first day on Nasdaq, but closed down 1.05%. Before the merger, about 80.3% of SPAC public shareholders redeemed their shares for cash, pulling out roughly $195 million and leaving a very thin public float. The company holds about 473 million XRP, but buying the stock itself doesn’t automatically mean buying the token; most of the XRP in its treasury likely came from investors who contributed tokens in exchange for equity. Put simply, the listing offers exposure, but it isn’t spot buying of XRP.

The digital cash plan targeting 2030 has been put on hold.

#新西兰央行暂停数字现金研发 $BTC

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said today it is pausing development of its digital cash proposal and shifting its focus to modernising the payments system and enabling real-time retail payments. It had previously planned to launch government-backed digital cash around 2030. Put simply, it doesn’t think issuing a new form of money makes much sense before the infrastructure is in place; modern payments infrastructure could also support new forms of money in the future, including a central bank digital currency. I see this as a pragmatic reprioritisation, not an abandonment. Cash use is declining and private stablecoins are on the rise, so the question of monetary sovereignty will still need an answer.

61,000 BTC—the appreciation may be out of reach.

#英国高院裁定钱志敏案适用中国法 $BTC

In the Blue Sky格锐 case, the UK High Court has just ruled that Chinese victims’ property claims are governed by Chinese law, not UK law. Put simply, the average purchase price in 2014 was a little over 2,000 yuan, and the value has since risen roughly 200-fold. But under the Chinese-law route, many people may recover no more than their principal plus interest—and may not share in those gains. The ruling only settles which law applies; ownership and how the coins will be distributed have yet to be decided. In cross-border efforts to recover crypto, I think the first thing to clarify is which country’s law applies. Which country holds the coins in cold wallets is secondary.

$3.9 billion in U.S. stocks on-chain, with $1.2 billion on BNB Chain.

#代币化股票总市值创39亿美元新高 $BNB

My first reaction was that something seemed off—how was Ethereum not in first place? Then I looked through the IMF’s latest report and it clicked: more than half of the trading in tokenized U.S. stocks happens after the U.S. market closes, and 80% of orders are for less than one share. Put simply, retail investors in our time zone are using small amounts of money at night to buy fractional shares of Nvidia and Tesla. Ondo is also bringing its products to BNB Chain to reach people in Asia and Latin America. Of course, the market is still thin: the IMF found volatility to be about 1.5 times that of the underlying stocks, so placing market orders in the middle of the night can be costly. $3.9 billion is barely a drop in the bucket compared with the U.S. stock market, but I think on-chain markets have already captured some of the demand for after-hours U.S. trading.

They said it had topped $300 million, but I just saw $295 million.

#AaveV4在Arc存款突破3亿美元 $AAVE

The number itself is about right. It’s down $3.75 million over the past day, which is normal fluctuation. What caught my attention is where the growth came from: of the $45.6 million added this week, syrupUSDC alone brought in $51.1 million, while native USDC was up just $110,000 and WETH was down $7.27 million. Put simply, the total grew on the back of newly added assets, while existing funds barely moved. Arc is Circle’s own chain, and USDC plus cirBTC account for nearly 80% of the total. I’ll believe it’s really taking off when outside ETH starts moving over too.

Saylor spent only $21.5 million buying BTC this week.

I was taken aback when I saw the announcement: he spent $192 million buying back STRC in the same week—nearly nine times as much as he spent buying BTC.

Those 250 BTC were bought at an average price of $86,194. With BTC now around $83,400, the position is slightly underwater. I’m more inclined to read this as: they need to support STRC’s price first, so adding to their BTC holdings will have to wait.

The bulk of this week’s money didn’t go into BTC; it went into the company’s own preferred stock.

#Strategy增持250枚比特币 $BTC

Blur is shutting down next month, and the token has already plunged 30%.

#Blur plans to disable the Blur.io frontend on November 12 $BLUR

The announcement came out around 4 a.m. Within that hour, BLUR plunged from 0.018 to 0.0141, and it’s still hovering around 0.0129. The team says only the blur.io website is shutting down; the on-chain protocol will keep running, and BLUR holders will still control the fee switch. That may be true, but for most people, the website is the product. With the front door gone, not many will go out of their way to use a protocol that’s still running. Anyone who borrowed on Blend should pay attention: repay by November 12 or risk default. BLUR already has a monitoring tag on Binance, and I wouldn’t try to catch this falling knife.

BTC options are as cheap as they’ve been in five years.

#比特币期权波动率创五年新低 $BTC

Near-term implied volatility is only around 33.5%, more than 4 percentage points below the volatility actually realized recently. Put simply, insurance is being sold at a discount. Interestingly, funds aren’t dumping spot; instead, they’re holding the coins while buying October-expiry 78,000 and 80,000 put options. The largest block trade was worth over $200 million. When everyone thinks it won’t move much, I personally get more cautious. This kind of calm usually doesn’t last long. I’m not guessing the direction, but I wouldn’t add too much to the position yet.

It’s reached $300 billion—who’s in charge across borders?

#FSB警告跨境稳定币监管仍不完善 $USDT $BTC

The FSB submitted a stablecoin memo to the G20 today: the global market is around $300 billion, but officials admit that cross-border oversight, crisis response, and the allocation of responsibilities are still far from mature. Rules are advancing at different speeds across countries, making it easy for issuers to set up shop wherever regulations are looser. Personally, I see this more as a regulatory catch-up checklist. Let’s see if anything concrete happens after the G20 meeting on the 15th.

$84K only held for a few hours

#BitcoinBackAbove84000 $BTC

Around 3 p.m., BTC touched 84,361. The hashtag was just starting to gain traction, and I thought this time it might hold. But then at 4 p.m., a single hourly candle sent it straight back down to 83,500. It was also the biggest-volume candle of the day. Honestly, that stung a bit.

It’s now hovering around 83,480. I’m watching two levels: 84,360 above—getting back above that would mean it’s truly recovered; and 83,300 below, which it’s tested twice today without breaking. If it drops below 82,900, I’ll accept that this rebound is taking a breather and we’re heading back into yesterday’s range to grind things out.

Bottom line: $84K is a price it’s touched for now, not one it’s managed to hold.

Do South Korean retail investors have to wait their turn this time?

#韩国代币化证券拟扩至债券基金 $ONDO

After reading this draft from South Korea’s Financial Services Commission, my first thought was: they’re moving fast, but they’re opening the door to institutions first. Stocks, bonds, and funds will all be eligible for tokenization as securities, with the rules taking effect on February 4, 2027. The first phase will be limited to institutional investors: private money market funds and bonds, plus unlisted stocks held in trusts. Retail investors hoping to buy publicly offered bonds and funds will have to wait for phase two.

Honestly, this is so South Korea: in a market where retail investors are especially active, they’re the first ones the rules are designed to rein in. The public comment period runs until November 11. In the short term, don’t expect South Korean retail investors to be the ones buying up RWA products—first, let’s see whether institutions are actually willing to launch them.

$542 million pulled out last week

#以太坊ETF连续9日净流出 $ETH $BTC

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of about $542 million last week—their worst week since January—extending the streak of consecutive net outflows to nine trading days. A closer look makes it even more striking: BlackRock’s ETHA alone saw about $477 million withdrawn, accounting for roughly 80% of the week’s total.

ETH is still hovering around $2,570, holding up a little better than when it was near $2,500. Put simply, ETFs are reducing their holdings, but spot-market demand hasn’t collapsed for now. I’m inclined to view this first as “institutions trimming their ETF exposure”—don’t automatically take a move above $2,500 as a sign that money is already flowing back in.

$30 Million Entry

#Sui基金会向DATANetwork投资3000万美元 $SUI $BTC

The Sui Foundation invested $30 million, becoming DATA Network’s largest institutional holder. What really stands out is the other side of the deal: DATA will use the funds to retire its standalone chain and migrate the entire protocol to Sui, with tokens moving over at a 1:1 ratio and Walrus as the default storage layer.

Formerly known as Story, it only pivoted to AI training data provenance in June, and Trace has already recorded over 250 million contributions. To me, this looks more like an ecosystem-acquisition-style onboarding than a signal that SUI is bound to pump in the short term.

Banks won’t open the on-ramp this year

#阿根廷央行不推加密入银行支付 $BTC

Argentina’s central bank has made its position clear: it won’t move forward this year with connecting banks and payment channels to crypto payments. At a payments conference, BCRA official Curutchet said, “Nothing is going to happen this year”; the 2022 ban is still in effect. But he hasn’t shut the door completely, noting that the issue could be revisited once the economy is more stable—possibly during Milei’s next term.

A banking group is separately launching a stablecoin project, but that’s being handled by companies outside the banking system. Personally, I’d rather keep the on-ramp closed for now and see how things develop. Having it “on the agenda” is still a long way from being able to buy crypto through a bank.

8,005 BTC flowed in over 24 hours

$BTC

Weekend fund flows are sending mixed signals. Over the past 7 days, centralized exchanges saw combined net outflows of around 15,000 BTC, with Binance alone accounting for about 16,500. But over the past 24 hours, around 8,005 BTC flowed back into exchange wallets, led by Binance at 3,215 and Coinbase Pro at 2,934. At current prices, that’s roughly $600–700 million. Note: 8,005 refers to inflows, not a net inflow.

Three points to keep in mind:
1. The weekly trend is coins leaving exchanges, while the 24-hour weekend trend is coins returning. Don’t read “weekly net outflow” as a guarantee of a supply crunch and a price rally on Monday.
2. Spot ETFs saw net inflows of just $21.1 million on Friday, after outflows of around $729 million over the previous two days. Institutional channels are closed over the weekend, so fresh data won’t arrive until Monday.
3. Bitcoin is still hovering around $83,100. UTC daily BTC liquidations were only about $1.73 million, and short positioning isn’t particularly intense either. The two fund-flow signals are at odds as prices move sideways.

The invalidation conditions are clear: if exchanges continue to see large net inflows over the next 24 hours and prices drop, the weekend inflow was supply being positioned for sale. If the inflow quickly flips back to net outflows and ETFs post another day of inflows on Monday, the exchange-outflow narrative will regain its footing.

What do you think this weekend’s inflow signals: selling pressure being set up for Monday, or just a temporary return?

Are NEAR’s quantum-resistant signatures live?

#NEAR accounts support quantum-resistant ML-DSA signatures $NEAR $BTC

The Plaza is once again pushing NEAR’s quantum-resistant signatures this weekend. On October 9, the official announcement was clear: accounts now support the post-quantum signature scheme ML-DSA, and switching signatures should be routine—you don’t need to move your coins to a new address. This is a different story from “considering making the L1 quantum-resistant in 2027”: NEAR accounts can already switch signatures.

Keep these three things straight:
1. Confirmed: Accounts can add ML-DSA access keys without changing their addresses or moving their assets. On the institutional side, a key-rotation test involving two transactions has also been run on mainnet: add the new signature first, then remove the old one.
2. Not live yet: NEP-655 commitment-based implicit accounts are still on testnet. For mainnet, they’ve only said “in the coming weeks,” with no firm date. Wallet-extension signing and the cross-chain recovery registry are still under development.
3. Don’t read this as immunity for the entire chain: supporting account signatures doesn’t mean every app on NEAR or every asset is quantum-resistant. The price is around 5.26, nearly flat over 24 hours—the narrative is hot, but the price hasn’t gone crazy.

There are clear ways to disprove the claims, too: if NEP-655 takes ages to roll out on mainnet, ML-DSA remains unusable at the wallet layer for a long time, or major holders don’t rotate their keys at all, then this topic is just a promotional video. Bitcoin is still hovering around 83,000, so don’t mistake a security-upgrade headline for a signal that prices must rise this weekend.

Do you think NEAR’s quantum-resistance narrative can give it a real edge, or will it just heat up briefly and then cool off?

$10 million frozen, with 80% still left

#Tether冻结Ledger盗窃案相关USDT $USDT $BTC

On-chain tracking puts the scale of the theft linked to Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis’ sales channel at about $92.9 million across 311 wallets, spanning TRON, Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Polygon. Tether subsequently took action on associated addresses: public records show that around $10 million in USDT was frozen. The key point: freezing funds only blocks transfers; it does not mean victims get their money back.

Keep three things straight:
1. The amount frozen was roughly a tenth of the total. Another approximately $15 million from the same case was converted into stablecoins beyond Tether’s control, while some Ethereum was sent through mixers.
2. This is not the same as Ledger’s headquarters being breached. Officials still point to supply-chain risks involving the distributor channel. And confirming a hardware implant does not mean the funds will automatically be returned.
3. Don’t let “funds frozen” headlines comfort you over the weekend. How much can be recovered depends on law enforcement and any subsequent reissuance—not on an on-chain blacklist settling the matter overnight.

There are clear ways this assessment could be disproved: if the amount frozen grows substantially and the funds are reissued to compensate victims, or if large portions of the mixing and swapping routes are intercepted, then recovery expectations can be raised. Until then, treating a freeze as a recovery is just reading the headline.

Do you think this round of freezes is the start of recovering the stolen funds, or have most of them already gotten away?