加密小象

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Recently Robinhood’s chain has been on fire, but tokens haven’t been released yet. However, the RH chain uses the Arbitrum stack. So everyone has been trading $ARB .
#比特币8月上涨23%跑赢黄金股市

Predictfun pp points have been released this week. This week’s points reached a new high—over 8,000 points, worth $500. The main reason is that we increased the number of listed order markets to over 300, and also because this week’s Dota 2 event provided plenty of points.

Last week we discovered a problem: after the number of listed markets increased, some expired market orders weren’t cleared, so when the robot was polling it kept prioritizing those expired markets and essentially blocked the channels for normal orders. So we updated the bot’s logic—existing listed markets now use WebSocket order book subscriptions. Now everything is running smoothly.

If you’re using my bot for market making, remember to update the robot.

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#比特币创2023年3月来最强周涨幅

Today, the crypto market surged sharply. In just one day, the short positions accumulated over the past few months were liquidated in a single wave. The entire internet saw $3.0 billion in liquidations.

The most direct reason is Trump’s crypto remarks today, but what’s truly important is that someone finally stepped in on the U.S. Treasury market.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that its long-term Treasury repurchase program will be at least doubled:

The per-transaction buyback cap will be raised from $2.0 billion to at least $4.0 billion.

Primarily targeting long-term Treasury bonds with maturities of 10–30 years, starting on September 9.

Why did the market react so strongly?

Because recently, it hasn’t been only wars, inflation, or expectations of rate cuts weighing on global risk assets. What’s been truly pressing them down is that long-term Treasury yields have been too high.

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury surged to around 5.3% at one point, nearing the highest levels since 2007.

When risk-free yields can offer about 5%, why would funds still take the risk to buy stocks or BTC?

So today’s logic is actually quite simple:

Increase long-term Treasury buybacks → bond prices rise → Treasury yields fall → institutional risk appetite rebounds → stocks, gold, and BTC all rally together.

Crypto surged especially hard today, and there’s a second layer of reasons:

Short-squeeze.

BTC briefly reclaimed the $70,000 level. ETH saw even larger gains. Then, a large number of short positions were forced to close, which further pushed the price higher.

Next, we need to see whether the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields can continue to fall.

If long-end yields keep declining, this risk-asset rebound may still have room to run.

If Treasuries are sold off again and yields spike higher once more, then today’s big bullish candle could very likely be only a liquidity-driven rebound.

Right now, the most important candlestick in the entire market is on Treasuries.
#BTC突破$72000
$BTC

I've been keeping a close eye on
$MON
over the past few days, and it has finally shown strong performance—its 24-hour increase is nearly 19%.

The spot market’s 24-hour trading volume is about 618 million,
while the futures contract trading volume is over 1.03 billion.
Market trading activity is high, and liquidity is sufficient. The price will most likely maintain an upward trend. The open interest for the contracts is about 748 million, and positions are still increasing.

Right now, market sentiment is relatively optimistic. Directionally, it will most likely keep rising, but the implied volatility is extremely elevated, which makes it very likely to experience large fluctuations. So you need to control leverage.

#BTC突破$72000 btc broke through $72,000

The most疯狂 US stock today: Moderna (
$MRNA.US
) surged 177% in a single day, closing at $174.38, and hitting a high of $194.46 intraday.

Why did it jump so hard?

Just one piece of news: Moderna and Merck’s personalized mRNA cancer-prevention vaccine—Phase III clinical trial succeeded.

This therapy is called Intismeran. It’s not a traditional cancer-prevention vaccine; instead, based on the mutations within each patient’s tumor, it customizes the corresponding mRNA, then combines it with Merck’s Keytruda to train the immune system to recognize and attack cancer cells.

This Phase III trial targeting high-risk melanoma achieved two key goals at the same time:

• Reduce the risk of cancer recurrence
• Reduce the risk of cancer spreading to other parts of the body

What really excited the market is this: this is the first time a personalized mRNA cancer therapy has succeeded in a large-scale Phase III clinical trial.

That means the mRNA technology that everyone came to know through COVID-19 vaccines could potentially open up a much bigger market: cancer treatment.

And this logic, in theory, isn’t limited to melanoma. Moderna is also advancing similar therapies in other cancer types, so what the market repriced today— to a certain extent— isn’t just one drug, but the potential value of Moderna’s entire platform.

If mRNA truly evolves from the COVID vaccine technology into a personalized cancer-therapy platform, then today could become a very important milestone in Moderna’s history.

#FOMC会议纪要

$MRNA.US

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Bought it from Niu Lai and ran fast! The theaters have fully taken down Niu Lai's movies. The director also posted to confirm it—this farce is finally coming to an end.

Bear markets exchange bankruptcies have already become quite common; now there are even exchanges that haven’t launched yet and already go bankrupt.

ABFinance is an exchange that was founded by the former Bybit COO. At the beginning of the year, they hired a lot of recruiters and made a big show of recruiting everywhere.

This outcome is simply because the backers stop putting in money. At the start, after they had already gotten funding, they had the confidence to recruit widely; but now that investors are pessimistic about crypto and don’t plan to keep investing, there’s no follow-up capital—so going bankrupt is a very normal decision.

This time, the bear market didn’t involve any exchange “blowing up” due to operational issues—purely just because they didn’t believe in crypto and decided to shut down and stop playing.

This also shows there are no signs of any improvement in the bear market in the near term.

$BTC

Polymarket
Polymarket now supports Passkey login. Even if you accidentally end up on a phishing site in the future, your password won’t be leaked! We strongly recommend that everyone enables it. Only accounts that use a Gmail email address can use it as a login method.

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ryptoxiaoxiang
…

So everyone must remember that in the crypto world, all default promises are fake 😂

Predictfun is back to send money again! Last World Cup I skimmed over $6,000 in prizes. This time it’s Dota 2 TI—there’s a total of $100,000 in cash rewards and 5,000,000 Predict points. No more nonsense, here’s the lossless strategy right away.

There are two stages in total:
Stage 1: Group stage — $25,000 + 1,000,000 points; the top 1,000 get rewards.
Stage 2: Playoffs rewards — $75,000 + 4,000,000 points; also the top 1,000 get rewards.

Rules:

Currently, in each group-stage match there are 9 options. Each option has its own AP points. Your ranking on the leaderboard is determined by the points you accumulate. Finally, the top 1,000 get the rewards.

To get the AP points for each option, you need to purchase at least 20份 (20 copies) of that option’s Yes or No.

Before the match starts, go to the event page and lock in yes or no. If you win, you’ll receive the corresponding points (very important—make sure you lock it before the match starts; otherwise even if you win, you won’t get any points),

Buying more than 20 for an option is meaningless—the points are the same. If you want to buy more, just do it for the sake of it.

How to get the rewards losslessly:
To get the rewards without loss, buy 20份 yes + no for every option. Because each yes+no you buy will always net you $1, so if you buy the same number of copies at similar prices, you can always get your principal back—and you might even make a little extra.

For example, suppose the current order is: buy Yes at 49 and sell No at 50. If you buy 20份 Yes and 20份 No, your cost is $19.8. After the match ends, the 20份 yes+no can be redeemed back to $20. If the locked result is the one that hits, you can also participate in the prize pool distribution. If it doesn’t hit, you still don’t lose your principal.

It’s best to place limit orders at one price for each one. Then if there are any orders that don’t get filled at the end, you can use extra orders to fill the remaining amount. This minimizes slippage and keeps fees low.

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Any questions, join the group to discuss.

This is the standard operation. Just before the team’s unlock, they send all kinds of messages to pump the price.
$KAITO . At the peak, short positions have already been opened. Just wait for the unlock to close out. But those who buy at the high end to take the bag will never get back.
Also, the trend on this line hasn’t finished falling yet.

Bitcoin’s trading volume is gradually shrinking, which may not look very good here

#灰度撤回三只山寨币etf申请

Today Michael Saylor posted another tweet hinting that MicroStrategy wants to buy Bitcoin, but now the market has become desensitized to him, and the trading volume still shows no new incremental capital entering. Also, the U.S. market has been at a negative premium for a while. Remain bearish
$BTC

Sure enough, $SPCX unlocked it completely—bad news is fully out, and it still blasts up 30%!

The Encryption Clarity Act, Clarity Act, has been postponed and will be voted on after the U.S. Senate recess in September. The probability of passage this year has dropped sharply to 15%

Polymarket’s valuation just increased again! In the next round of financing, it will raise $1 billion at a $20 billion valuation! With the money Polymarket has raised for this project alone, it would be enough to buy all projects ranking lower than #60 in the crypto space! That’s right—so financially powerful!
To celebrate the new $20 billion valuation, new rewards are here: just click the link below and deposit any amount of funds into your Polymarket account to get a $10 reward! Both new and existing accounts are eligible—existing accounts are actually more likely to pass risk control!
polymarket.com/?via=cryptoxiaoxiang

#黄金突破下行趋势线 directly pulled up 10%. The main reasons are that employment has clearly weakened, inflation has eased, and expectations for rate cuts have warmed up. The situation in the Middle East has not improved either. In addition, with U.S. stocks now at historical highs, many institutions have started using protective strategies.

Trading approach:

If you already hold gold:
You can keep the core position. However, after the price has surged sharply in the short term, it’s more suitable to take profit in batches rather than selling everything at once. As long as the price hasn’t continued to break down and close persistently below around 4,000, the medium-term structure hasn’t been meaningfully damaged.

If you are preparing to buy:
It’s not advisable to put on a full position all at once after a series of strong rallies. A more reasonable plan is to wait for a pullback to around 4,100, 4,050, or even 4,000 and observe in batches. If it instead breaks directly above 4,300, you should still wait for a retest and confirmation after the breakout, to avoid chasing when short-term sentiment is at its peak.

For short-term futures contracts:
Volatility ahead will be high. The most critical variables are U.S. employment data, CPI, the U.S. dollar index, 10-year real yields, and remarks by Federal Reserve officials. It’s currently not suitable to make one-way leveraged bets.

I remain moderately bullish on gold over the next 3 to 6 months, but I’m not blindly expecting gains over the next few days. A more likely path is that prices will first swing violently at high levels, digesting the recent rally, and then decide whether to enter the next round of upward movement based on the direction of U.S. inflation and interest rates.

$XAU

#亚马逊市值首破3万亿美元 The most critical catalyst is AWS’s reacceleration in the latest earnings report. Amazon’s AWS revenue in the second quarter reached about $42.2 billion, up 37% year over year, marking the fastest growth in recent years and almost $2 billion above market expectations. This has led the market to reaffirm that Amazon is not just an e-commerce company, but also a major beneficiary of AI infrastructure and cloud-computing demand.

After the earnings release, Amazon’s stock price quickly rose from about $235.50 to a high of $287.20, gaining more than 20% in just a few trading days, and on August 3, 2026, it crossed a $3 trillion market cap for the first time.
Another important signal is that the company raised its 2026 capital expenditure plan from $200 billion to $220 billion, mainly for AI data centers, chips, cloud computing, and other technology infrastructure. Management said that even with increased investment, AWS still faces capacity shortages and has already seen AI demand extending into 2028.

This means the logic the market is currently trading on is:
Increasing capital expenditure is not wasting cash, but capturing AI cloud-computing demand.
As long as AWS revenue growth continues to exceed expectations, investors are willing to temporarily tolerate massive spending.

What could the stock do next?

My view
Bullish in the medium to long term, but in the short term it is not suitable to chase simply because it has broken above $3 trillion.
This rally is backed by real AWS growth, not just sentiment-driven hype. But the stock has already been rapidly re-rated, and weakening free cash flow, very high capital expenditure, and Bezos’s share sales could all lead to short-term volatility.

A healthier path would be:
First consolidate between $265 and $287, then choose a direction based on the next round of AWS data.
If AWS continues to grow above 30% in the future, Amazon’s $3 trillion valuation could shift from a brief breakout to a new valuation platform. On the other hand, if AWS growth quickly falls back to around 20% while capital expenditure keeps rising, then $3 trillion is more likely to become a short-term top rather than a new starting point.