加密龐克
Youtube：加密龐克，推特：@crypto_punkX
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It's so exaggerated... Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin has dropped below the 1011 flash crash.
It's so exaggerated... Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin has dropped below the 1011 flash crash.
The Binance fee has indeed reached an exaggerated -0.013%, the last time it was this low was during 1011.
However, this time is different as everyone is looking for the reasons behind the decline, but they can't find any. Most of the explanations are cobbled together, and the most common thing people say is this "100% man-made."
The decline may not need so many reasons; everyone should know how poor the liquidity in the crypto circle has been recently. Additionally, the STH to Exchanges Sum indicates that the amount of BTC transferred to exchanges in the last 24 hours reached a historic record of 88,000 coins. The panic selling pressure of nearly 6 billion USD from short-term holders has suddenly hit a market that already had poor liquidity. I think this might be the main reason for the crash.
The Binance fee has indeed reached an exaggerated -0.013%, the last time it was this low was during 1011.
However, this time is different as everyone is looking for the reasons behind the decline, but they can't find any. Most of the explanations are cobbled together, and the most common thing people say is this "100% man-made."
The decline may not need so many reasons; everyone should know how poor the liquidity in the crypto circle has been recently. Additionally, the STH to Exchanges Sum indicates that the amount of BTC transferred to exchanges in the last 24 hours reached a historic record of 88,000 coins. The panic selling pressure of nearly 6 billion USD from short-term holders has suddenly hit a market that already had poor liquidity. I think this might be the main reason for the crash.
Boss Yi and 1011BitcoinOG, two major ETH bulls, have now turned into large sellers on ETH, creating a bit of a death spiral.
In the past 48 hours, Trend Research has deposited 70,000 ETH into #Binance to lower the liquidation price. Currently, there are still 463,123 ETH on-chain, and the liquidation price has been reduced to [$1,575 ~ $1,681].
Additionally, 1011BitcoinOG has also deposited 15,000 ETH into #Binance to sell and lower the liquidation price. Currently, the liquidation price for the circulating loan part has decreased to [$1,550 ~ $1,560]. However, they still have 748,558 ETH and 30,661 BTC on-chain, and available funds remain very ample.
It seems they are maintaining a reserved space of around 20%~25% for the liquidation price, but if ETH continues to fall, there may be more selling. They have just lowered their liquidation price for the first time, and might get a breather, but the market seems to be closely following their liquidation price.
In the past 48 hours, Trend Research has deposited 70,000 ETH into #Binance to lower the liquidation price. Currently, there are still 463,123 ETH on-chain, and the liquidation price has been reduced to [$1,575 ~ $1,681].
Additionally, 1011BitcoinOG has also deposited 15,000 ETH into #Binance to sell and lower the liquidation price. Currently, the liquidation price for the circulating loan part has decreased to [$1,550 ~ $1,560]. However, they still have 748,558 ETH and 30,661 BTC on-chain, and available funds remain very ample.
It seems they are maintaining a reserved space of around 20%~25% for the liquidation price, but if ETH continues to fall, there may be more selling. They have just lowered their liquidation price for the first time, and might get a breather, but the market seems to be closely following their liquidation price.
"small-scale bear market or big bear market for 3-5 months" is the key.
Get straight to the point, earlier BTC fell again, and Bitcoin has now touched the key level of 74000. In terms of operation, I opened a long position here according to the plan when it was being reclaimed, and a spot order I placed a few days ago at 74000, 69138... has already been executed.
This is a very important high-level key support zone, so the next reaction will determine the key for a "small-scale bear market or a big bear market for 3-5 months." If it is to bounce back, we must at least see a reclaim of the previous low point at 80600.
Let’s also take a look at the data part (Figure 2). It is very clear that the number of purchases by large whales in recent times has not been too many, all around 1000-2000, but all three occurrences happened when there was a sharp drop back to almost the lowest point at that moment.
This is a very important high-level key support zone, so the next reaction will determine the key for a "small-scale bear market or a big bear market for 3-5 months." If it is to bounce back, we must at least see a reclaim of the previous low point at 80600.
Let’s also take a look at the data part (Figure 2). It is very clear that the number of purchases by large whales in recent times has not been too many, all around 1000-2000, but all three occurrences happened when there was a sharp drop back to almost the lowest point at that moment.
HYPE is rising against the trend by 20%!!
The whale (Loracle) is seizing the opportunity!? He currently has a long position of 1.47 million HYPE at $24.37, which has already made nearly 20 million dollars in profit, making it the second largest profitable position in Hyperliquid (the largest is the third-ranked SOL short position). Earlier, he also increased his HYPE position, indicating he's rolling over.. a very aggressive strategy.
However, Big Brother Mahji said he has also joined..! Earlier, he deposited 250,000 dollars again and went long on 69,888 HYPE and 1,750 ETH. Currently, thanks to HYPE's surge, he has almost doubled that 250,000.
The whale (Loracle) is seizing the opportunity!? He currently has a long position of 1.47 million HYPE at $24.37, which has already made nearly 20 million dollars in profit, making it the second largest profitable position in Hyperliquid (the largest is the third-ranked SOL short position). Earlier, he also increased his HYPE position, indicating he's rolling over.. a very aggressive strategy.
However, Big Brother Mahji said he has also joined..! Earlier, he deposited 250,000 dollars again and went long on 69,888 HYPE and 1,750 ETH. Currently, thanks to HYPE's surge, he has almost doubled that 250,000.
Strategy bought 855 bitcoins last week, costing about 75.3 million USD, with an average price of 87,974 USD per bitcoin.
The week before last, over 20,000 bitcoins were bought, the week before that, nearly 3,000, and last week, 800 bitcoins were bought, indicating a significant decrease in buying power.
#Strategy increases Bitcoin holdings
The week before last, over 20,000 bitcoins were bought, the week before that, nearly 3,000, and last week, 800 bitcoins were bought, indicating a significant decrease in buying power.
#Strategy increases Bitcoin holdings
Bitcoin CME futures left a huge gap of 81000
Currently, Bitcoin is still a bit short of touching the key level of 74000. Earlier, after the CME opened, BTC indeed left a daily level gap (Figure 1), and this gap is huge, over 2700 USD. According to all historical data, as long as it's a daily level gap caused by a decline, the probability of it being filled is 100%. For gaps caused by a sharp rise, the filling probability is about 90% or so.
Currently, this bearish flag that we have been closely monitoring for the past few weeks is almost reaching its symmetrical fulfillment point (Figure 2). When calculated proportionally, it just happens to be near the key level of 74000. Here, it is also a super large key support range of 69138~74000. This point is very critical, as it may determine what kind of market movement we will see in the coming months or even more than half a year.
Currently, this bearish flag that we have been closely monitoring for the past few weeks is almost reaching its symmetrical fulfillment point (Figure 2). When calculated proportionally, it just happens to be near the key level of 74000. Here, it is also a super large key support range of 69138~74000. This point is very critical, as it may determine what kind of market movement we will see in the coming months or even more than half a year.
Weekend Update - Bitcoin and Ethereum Edition (The largest liquidation day since 1011.. Ready to start buying the dip!)
Technical aspect: To get straight to the point, it has already hit 75600, just one step away from the satisfaction point of this large-scale bear flag at 74000 (Figure 1). In the latest video, I discussed my upcoming plans in detail. In simple terms, all major key levels below 74000 are where I will start buying spot. Here are a few more important levels: 73949, 69138, 61097; these are the places where I have already placed orders.
Especially here at 73949~69138, this is what we mentioned before, the boundary between a large-scale small bear market and a big bear market (Figure 2). It can be understood that as long as it breaks, the time needed for consolidation will be significantly extended. However, before breaking, it is still considered a small-scale bear market lasting 3 to 5 months.
Especially here at 73949~69138, this is what we mentioned before, the boundary between a large-scale small bear market and a big bear market (Figure 2). It can be understood that as long as it breaks, the time needed for consolidation will be significantly extended. However, before breaking, it is still considered a small-scale bear market lasting 3 to 5 months.
🚨1011 BitcoinOG"Ancient Super Whale" just liquidated 24,640 coins at $2,552 $ETH
Current position size: +188,086 ETH (worth 470 million USD)
Entry average price: $3,149
Liquidation price: $2,264
From originally making a maximum profit of 140 million USD a few weeks ago to now showing a loss of 66 million USD, it is indeed very frightening. However, he recently bought 148,000 ETH through a circular loan and is still holding, with a liquidation price at $1,954, slightly lower than the contract here.
Current position size: +188,086 ETH (worth 470 million USD)
Entry average price: $3,149
Liquidation price: $2,264
From originally making a maximum profit of 140 million USD a few weeks ago to now showing a loss of 66 million USD, it is indeed very frightening. However, he recently bought 148,000 ETH through a circular loan and is still holding, with a liquidation price at $1,954, slightly lower than the contract here.
Gold plummeted 14% in one day and silver fell 37%, mainly due to the "valuation effect" causing a long squeeze.
Yesterday, I talked to everyone about the new FED chairman Kevin Warsh, who is a very pragmatic representative of the hawks. So, when it was rumored two days ago that he might take the position, gold started to decline, and after Trump officially nominated him, both gold and silver triggered a sharp drop.
First, it is important to know that Kevin Warsh has long been an opponent of the Federal Reserve's excessive QE. He also believes that the crazy QE during the pandemic was overdone by the Federal Reserve. Now the market is paying back this debt, so he advocates for "lowering interest rates and then a more aggressive reduction of the balance sheet."
This is also why the market immediately rebounded when it heard that he would take office. The Federal Reserve's reduction of the balance sheet will lead to a decrease in the dollar's liquidity in the market, which will, of course, further support the rise of the dollar exchange rate.
First, it is important to know that Kevin Warsh has long been an opponent of the Federal Reserve's excessive QE. He also believes that the crazy QE during the pandemic was overdone by the Federal Reserve. Now the market is paying back this debt, so he advocates for "lowering interest rates and then a more aggressive reduction of the balance sheet."
This is also why the market immediately rebounded when it heard that he would take office. The Federal Reserve's reduction of the balance sheet will lead to a decrease in the dollar's liquidity in the market, which will, of course, further support the rise of the dollar exchange rate.
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