猎币罗盘

**SOL drops to around $116, and I start looking for a chance to short the rebound**

In this leg of the selloff, my short-term bias on SOL is bearish.

In the Asian session on October 8, SOL has already come back to around $116. Instead of guessing where the bottom is, I care more about whether, after the drop, the buy-side has the strength to push the price back up.

My trading plan:

If SOL rebounds to around $120, but keeps failing to hold, and we see a clear high-to-low rejection, I will consider testing a short with a small position.

First, I’ll watch the $116 area. If it breaks down convincingly, then I’ll see whether there is support/acceptance around $112.

If SOL regains and holds above $120, and the retest doesn’t fail, I will abandon this short-term short plan—I won’t force the direction.

For the initial entry, I’ll use at most one-third of the planned position size. The actual stop-loss will be placed above the structural high after the rebound is confirmed. Without a confirmation signal, I won’t pretend I’m already in the trade.

I’m not saying SOL will definitely keep crashing. I’m just judging that the short-term bears still have a chance.

For now, I’ll publicly record the direction and price levels. I’ll come back in a few days to validate.

On SOL’s next rebound, do you think $120 will be reclaimed, or will it run into resistance again?

$SOL
#SOL #Solana

BTC has fallen below 83,000. This time, I’m keeping a closer eye on 80,000!

I’m still leaning bearish on this BTC pullback.

BTC failed to break through convincingly near $87,000, and the price has weakened ever since. Now even the area around $83,000 is being tested, which suggests short-term buying support isn’t strong enough.

My plan is clear:

$83,000 is the first level I’m watching. If BTC rebounds, climbs back above it, and holds there, I’ll reassess my bearish outlook. But if the rebound can’t reclaim that level, I’m more inclined to view this rally as a weak bounce.

Below that, I’ll first watch how support holds around $80,000.

If I take a short-term short position, I’ll only consider an entry after a rebound is rejected and that rejection is confirmed. I’ll limit my initial position to one-third of my planned size and place my stop-loss above the confirmed rebound high. I won’t blindly chase the price down.

This time, I’m not in a hurry to guess the bottom. I’d rather see whether $83,000 turns from support into resistance.

I’ll come back in a few days to review how this plays out.

Do you think BTC will hit $80,000 first, or reclaim $83,000 first?

$BTC
#BTC #Bitcoin #比特币

ZRO has reached 2.19, so I’m making a second adjustment to the position I started around 1.91.
Yesterday, when ZRO returned to around 1.90–1.92, I opened my first position.
My plan was clear at the time:
My first target was 2.05–2.10. After it broke above the previous high of 2.13, I would decide what to do with the remaining position.
Now the price is around 2.19, and both conditions have been met.
So I won’t chase the price just because it’s up 11% today.
As planned, I’ll trim part of my position again, locking in the gains from 1.91 to 2.19, while keeping the rest to follow the trend.
There’s another noteworthy development today:
LayerZero has bought back another approximately 162,000 ZRO, worth about $347,000, bringing total buybacks to approximately $5.4 million.
But for me, good news is only a supporting factor—the price is the final answer.
Going forward, if 2.13–2.15 can turn from resistance into support, I’ll keep holding the remaining position, with the next target around 2.30.
If it breaks out but then quickly falls back below 2.10, I’ll reduce my position further rather than give back to the market profits I’ve already secured.
Yesterday, I was willing to open my first position around 1.91.
Today, around 2.19, I should start thinking about how to protect my profits.
I’ll keep following this trade.
$ZRO

Has Russia really fully opened up to cryptocurrency? Not so fast—the most important part of this news actually isn’t how much BTC has risen.
You can post the following text as is:
Russia has officially opened applications for cryptocurrency exchanges to register. I think this news is more worth paying attention to than BTC’s short-term price movements.
But first, let’s clear up a common misconception:
This does not mean that “Russia has completely opened up to cryptocurrency.”
What actually happened is that, starting October 5, Russia’s new rules for accessing the crypto market officially took effect. Cryptocurrency exchanges, digital custodians, and similar businesses can apply to be included in the Bank of Russia’s regulatory registry.
Applying does not mean automatic approval, and there are still regulatory requirements that will determine which crypto assets ordinary investors can ultimately trade.
But what makes this development truly worth watching is this:
In the past, when many countries discussed cryptocurrency, the focus was mostly on whether to “restrict or ban” it.
Now, more and more regulatory efforts are shifting toward questions like:
How can exchanges be brought under regulatory oversight? How can an entry framework be established? How can crypto assets be incorporated into the traditional financial system?
These are two very different things.
So I won’t raise my BTC price target just because of this news, nor will I interpret it as a reason BTC is about to skyrocket.
But over the longer term, if more major economies gradually shift from asking “whether to allow it” to “how to regulate it,” that is clearly a trend worth following for the long-term legitimization and institutionalization of the crypto market as a whole.
In the short term, watch the price. Over the long term, pay closer attention to how the rules are changing.
$BTC
#俄罗斯开放加密货币交易

ZRO is down 6% today, but I’m getting ready to open my first position around 1.91
ZRO surged to around 2.13 a few days ago, but today it suddenly pulled back to 1.91, with its 24-hour loss now exceeding 6%.
There’s one signal worth noting behind this drop: a large amount of ZRO has recently moved onto exchanges. After the consecutive gains, it’s not surprising that short-term traders are starting to take profits.
But I’m not turning outright bearish just yet.
On the 6-hour chart, ZRO is currently around 1.91, with the MA7 at about 1.87 and the MA25 at 1.72. The overall uptrend structure has not been completely broken.
So, here’s how I see it right now:
Around 1.90–1.92, I’d start with 20% of my planned position.
If the 1.87–1.89 area holds and the price climbs back above 1.95, I’ll consider adding another 20%.
My first target is 2.05–2.10, where I’ll take some profits.
If the price later breaks above the previous high of 2.13, I’ll keep holding the remaining position and target around 2.25.
On the other hand, if 1.85 breaks decisively and the price can’t reclaim it on a rebound, I’ll close this trade and won’t add to the position as it falls.
Also, Binance is processing the token merger from STG to ZRO. Spot trading for STG/USDT will be suspended tomorrow, while existing ZRO spot trading will not be affected.
So, it’s worth keeping an eye on fund flows in ZRO over the next couple of days.
I’m opening my first position around 1.91, and I’ll continue to share updates on this trade.
$ZRO

After BNB broke through $790, my trading plan:
Today, BNB has become a hotspot in the market as the price breaks above the $790 area.
When many people see a breakout, their first instinct is to chase in.
But my trading habit isn’t to rush in just because it’s going up.
The breakout is only the first step—the execution that follows is what matters more.
My plan:
First, I’ll establish a partial position as an observation lot.
If, after the breakout, BNB can continue to hold around $790 and the trading volume remains strong, I’ll consider adding to my position.
If it continues higher, I will take profit in batches at key resistance zones.
If it falls back below the breakout area again, it means this breakout lacked sufficient strength, and I will control risk according to my plan.
Trading isn’t about guessing the exact top.
What truly matters is:
when to enter;
when to add to the position;
when to take profit;
and when to exit.
I’ll keep tracking this BNB trade and update my plan based on how the price moves next.
$BNB

ETH returns to the key area—why I’m starting my first position now
Recently, market volatility has been obvious.
Many people like to wait for a “perfect entry,” but in real trading, opportunities usually aren’t waited for—they’re made by preparing in advance.
ETH is currently back at a position I’m paying attention to.
My plan:
First, establish a 25% planned position.
The reason is simple:
Compared with many other small coins that have already surged quickly, this level for ETH isn’t that extreme, and market capital is still focusing on the Ethereum ecosystem.
How I’ll handle it next:
If ETH reclaims and holds above the key resistance level, and the volume confirms, I’ll add a second position.
My first target is the resistance zone ahead; when it reaches there, I’ll handle it in batches rather than selling everything at once.
If it continues to strengthen, I’ll look at the next stage’s upside.
If the market turns weaker and breaks below my set risk level, I will exit—because I won’t stubbornly hold a short-term trade just because I believe in ETH’s long-term value.
My trading logic has always been very simple:
Enter first,
add when it strengthens,
take profit when targets are reached,
and exit if I’m wrong.
It’s not about predicting every single candlestick—it’s about knowing in advance what I’ll do at each step.
$ETH

BTC returns to a key position; my plan for today is simple:
BTC recently bounced up from the adjustment lows, and now it’s back around $86,000.
Many people see the rise and start chasing, but my approach isn’t to chase after pumps—I first make sure the plan is clear.
My actions:
First entry: Take a small position around the current price, and keep risk controlled.
If it continues to break above 87,000 and holds firm, I’ll consider adding a second position.
If it pulls back toward 85,000, I’ll observe how strong the support is—often, the better opportunities actually come from the pullback.
If it breaks below 84,000, it means this rebound structure has been invalidated, and I’ll reduce my position size.
Trading isn’t guessing the absolute top; it’s knowing before you enter:
when to add to your position,
when to take profit,
and when to admit you’re wrong.
That’s also why I prefer to write the plan in advance, instead of waiting until it’s already pumping to call it out.
$BTC

Binance launched a $200k trading competition for CT, yet CT dropped 14% in a single day: 0.52—here I’m going to try the first trade first.
CT’s current level is quite interesting.
On one side, Binance Alpha is running a CT trading competition, and the event still has plenty of buzz; on the other, over the past 24 hours CT has shown a clear pullback.
This kind of move—high platform hype, but the price is the first to get hit—I’m actually more willing to start watching opportunities for the first entry.
Right now, CT is around 0.52.
My plan is:
Near 0.51–0.52, I’ll go in with 15%–20% of the planned position.
This entry won’t be heavy, because new coins move a lot, and there’s already been a noticeable pullback today.
If later CT regains and holds above 0.54, I’ll consider a second entry.
My first target is to look at 0.56–0.58, and around there I’ll start taking partial profits.
If 0.58 can break out with increased volume, then I’ll consider the remaining position at 0.60–0.61.
Conversely, if it falls back below 0.48 again, I’ll treat this short-term rebound thesis as invalid and won’t stubbornly hold it.
The reason I’m willing to participate first is also simple:
CT currently has Binance’s own event driving attention, and trading activity is also sufficient, while the price has already pulled back from the highs for a while.
Rather than waiting until it rises back to 0.58 before deciding whether it’s worth joining, I’d prefer to take a spot now with a small position, and let the market decide whether to add the second entry.
The first trade is just the start.
After that, if it reaches 0.56–0.58, or if 0.48 breaks down, I’ll come back to update this trade.
$CT #交易竞赛

More than 90 banks have started integrating Solana for settlement, but SOL is still hovering around $119. I’m going to place my first trade now.
Today’s movers list is very lively.
SAND is up more than 50%, and NIGHT is up close to 30%.
But at this level, I actually don’t want to chase.
For my first trade today, I’d rather allocate to SOL.
A noteworthy recent change is that Fiserv’s digital assets platform has officially gone live. Its first production project, Roughrider Coin, directly used Solana for underlying settlement. The integration entry points involve more than 90 banks and credit unions.
That’s a big piece of news, but SOL isn’t really following with a surge right now.
The price is still around $119.
So my plan is:
Around $118–120, I’ll put on an initial 25% planned position.
I prefer this kind of setup—“fundamentals have a fresh catalyst, but the price hasn’t flown yet on emotion.”
If SOL later reclaims $122–$123, and after breaking out it can hold steadily, I’ll add another 25%.
My first target is $127–$130.
When it reaches there, I’ll take some profit first—I won’t fully exit.
If it continues to break out with increased volume and pushes through, I’ll reassess the remaining position around $135.
If instead it pulls back to test $115–$116 first, but then quickly shows support, I’ll consider adding the second trade there.
The level that would truly make me admit I’m wrong is around $112.
If it breaks down and that breakdown is valid, and even a subsequent rebound can’t get back, then this trade plan gets exited.
So today my actions are very clear:
Enter around $119 → confirm at $122–$123 and add → start taking profits around $127–$130 → if $112 is lost, admit the mistake.
Compared with chasing a coin that’s already up 50% today, I’d rather position myself early in a target that hasn’t been pushed up by sentiment yet, but already has a new catalyst.
I’ll keep following this one.
$SOL

BTC “whale” sold 30,000 coins in a week, while an ETH whale bought 60,000: First trade around the 2680 level
Today there’s a capital flow shift in the market, and I think it’s more worth paying attention to than simply watching bullish or bearish price changes.
Over the past week, BTC whales reduced their holdings by about 30,000 coins.
But on the other side, ETH whales actually increased their holdings by about 60,000 ETH.
In other words, big money isn’t simply exiting Crypto—it’s re-positioning between different assets.
ETH is currently hovering around $2680.
My view is:
At this level, I’m willing to start with 25% of the planned position.
The first entry doesn’t need to be too heavy, because tonight we have the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) macro variable, and volatility could suddenly expand at any time.
Next, I’ll handle it like this:
If ETH reclaims and holds above 2720–2740, and after the breakout it can stabilize, I’ll add another 25% of the planned position.
My first target is 2800–2830.
Once it reaches there, I’ll take profit on part of the position rather than exiting completely.
If it continues breaking out above 2830 with increasing volume, I’ll then assess the remaining position at 2880–2920.
If ETH doesn’t push up directly, but instead pulls back to 2620–2640 first—and as long as there isn’t a clear breakdown with a big increase in volume—I’ll consider completing the second entry there.
The point that would truly make me wrong is around 2580.
If there’s an effective breakdown below it and the price can’t reclaim afterward on a retest, then this plan is out.
So this isn’t just a one-line “I’m bullish on ETH.”
My plan is already laid out:
Participate near 2680 → consider adding on the breakout at 2720–2740 → start taking profit in batches above 2800 → if 2580 breaks, admit the mistake.
Today also has the Non-Farm Payrolls variable, so I want to see more:
After the data comes out, will those big funds that bought 60,000 ETH recently continue to stand on the buy side.
$ETH

One giant whale bought 650,000 UNI in a month. Now it’s around $9. I’m getting in with the first trade.
Today I didn’t chase the top gainer on the leaderboard.
Instead, I’m keeping an eye on UNI.
The reason is that today I saw a set of pretty interesting data:
In the past month, a giant whale accumulated about 654,000 UNI through Flowdesk, with an average cost of roughly $7.17.
Now UNI has reached around $9. This position already has a clear unrealized profit, but what I’m focusing on right now is still holding the position—not mass selling.
So this time I’m going to participate directly, instead of waiting for an even lower price.
Around $9, I’ll start with 30% of the planned position.
The first entry doesn’t need to be heavy, because UNI’s high today already touched around $9.24, and there’s still selling pressure above.
Next, I’ll handle it like this:
If it reclaims $9.25, and after breaking out it doesn’t immediately get dumped back down, I’ll add another 30% of the planned position.
The first target is to look at $9.60–$9.80.
If it continues to break out from that area on increasing volume, then I’ll consider the remaining position above $10.
I’ve also planned an alternative scenario in advance:
If it first pulls back to $8.75–$8.85, but then quickly shows strong support, I’ll consider placing the second buy there instead of panic-selling.
The real point that would make me admit I was wrong is around $8.60.
Once there’s an effective breakdown, if the subsequent rebound can’t recover, I’ll exit this short-term plan. I won’t use the “giant whale bought it” as a reason to hold as a long-term bet.
So this time I’m not predicting that UNI must go up.
My trading sequence is already clearly written:
Around $9, enter the first position → if it breaks above $9.25, keep following → above $9.6 start considering taking profit → if things go wrong, admit at around $8.6.
After this, I’ll continue tracking this trade.
$UNI

$63 million just bought AAVE from the exchange, and today the price hit a 7-month high
I think this capital is worth tracking.
Yesterday an on-chain address bought about 39,000 AAVE from Kraken, worth roughly $6.3 million.
Today AAVE has already pushed above $178, setting a new high since February.
Looking at these two things together is far more interesting than simply seeing “up 7%.”
Now the price is near $175, and my stance is very clear:
The bias remains bullish, but I won’t chase near the new high.
I’d rather wait for 170–173.
If there’s clear support/absorption in this zone, I’ll consider joining the next leg. First target: 180–183. After a breakout, we can look around $188.
If $165 breaks and can’t be reclaimed, this plan is invalid.
Why don’t I chase at $178?
Because a truly strong market isn’t afraid of giving you a pullback.
If there’s indeed sustained inflow into AAVE this time, then after the first batch of profit-taking comes out, someone should step in next.
That’s the “next buyer” strength I’m waiting for.
$AAVE

BTC is trading around 84,000, yet WLD suddenly surged 10%: has the capital already started to rotate?
Tonight I didn’t keep watching BTC.
The reason is simple:
BTC is still grinding around the $84k area, but WLD has already climbed into the top ranks of today’s contract gainers, with its rise once nearing 10%.
I’m actually more interested in this kind of market.
Because in a true altcoin rally, it usually doesn’t start when BTC suddenly spikes upward. Instead, it starts after BTC goes sideways—when capital begins looking for directions with higher leverage.
WLD’s strength today at least shows one thing:
There are funds willing to leave BTC’s sideways range and take on higher risk.
But after a 10% jump, I won’t chase directly.
What I want now is to wait for the first clear pullback.
If, after the pullback, the trading volume shrinks and the earlier breakout zone doesn’t quickly break back down, then I’d consider staying long and continuing.
On the other hand, if after the rise it immediately pushes volume out and slams back into the original consolidation range, then today’s move is more likely just a short-term capital impulse.
So this time I’m not trying to guess how much more WLD can rise.
I’m only watching one thing:
After the first batch of profitable positions is taken, is there a second wave of capital willing to step in?
If there is, WLD may be more than just a 10% gain today.
If not, I’d rather miss out.
$WLD

6.34 billion US dollars flowed into BTC ETFs, but on the last day the funds suddenly began to withdraw
BTC had some very nice data in the third quarter:
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $6.34 billion.
BTC rose by more than 42% in the same period.
If you only look at this, it’s easy to draw a conclusion:
Institutions are still buying, so it’s bullish.
But I care more about another figure.
On the last trading day of September, BTC ETFs instead recorded a net outflow of about $149 million, ending the prior streak of net inflows over nine straight days.
This means that for BTC, you can’t just look at “how much institutions bought”; you also need to see whether this round of inflows can continue.
So I’m not going to chase it just because it broke above 85,200.
My plan is:
First, see whether it can truly hold ground around 85,000.
If it can keep absorbing demand above 85,000, I’ll stay more bullish. My first target is 86,500～87,000; if it breaks further, I’ll look around 88,500.
But if it slips back below 83,800, I’ll dial down my short-term long expectations.
The most interesting part of the market right now is exactly this:
The $6.34 billion in Q3 ETF funds has already proved that there is long-term buying demand.
But in Q4, when the first batch of capital arrives, will it keep pushing in—or will it start taking profits?
That’s the key data worth watching next.
$BTC
#比特币ETF三季度净流入63.4亿美元

17 banks are preparing to integrate, but LINK instead fell 3%: This time, I don’t want to chase the good news
Chainlink’s news these past two days has been substantial.
The new framework allows banks to connect to Swift’s blockchain ledger via Chainlink, and the pilot involves 17 banks, including HSBC, Citi, UBS, Standard Chartered, and others.
By normal logic, this should be a very pretty narrative for LINK.
But today the market’s answer is:
LINK didn’t keep surging; instead, it fell back to around $14.6.
That’s exactly what I’m really interested in right now.
Because the most dangerous time to trade is often not when there’s no good news, but when everyone already knows the good news and rushes in only after it’s out.
LINK has already rallied ahead of time. Now that the news is officially landing, it’s completely normal for short-term funds to take profit.
So this time, I won’t chase above $15.
My plan instead is to wait for the pullback and see if there’s support around the $14.50–$14.70 zone.
If it can stop the decline there and active buy pressure reappears, I’ll consider taking a long-biased position.
First target: look at $15.20–$15.40.
If it breaks back above and holds $15.40, I’ll continue to look at $15.70–$16.00.
But if it validly breaks below $14.20 and the retracement can’t get back up, then I’ll cancel this short-term long plan.
My logic is actually very simple:
Watch $14.50–$14.70 → first target $15.20–$15.40 → second target $15.70–$16.00 → $14.20 invalidates.
The story of the 17 banks is already on the table.
What’s truly important next isn’t how much the news can be hyped, but this:
Near $14, does anyone really have the willingness to buy LINK with real money.
That matters more than any headline.
$LINK
#Chainlink推出银行接入SWIFT账本

ZEC has fallen to this extent, and yet the whale added another 8605 coins: the long vs. short battle from last night isn’t over yet
Just after I finished writing about ZEC’s large short positions last night, today on-chain showed a completely opposite scene.
The addresses related to the ZEC whale continue to buy from the exchange, adding roughly 8,605 ZEC. Now the six related addresses together are already holding 65,158 ZEC, with their position size up by about 15% compared to before.
What’s most interesting isn’t the phrase “the whale bought.”
It’s that ZEC has clearly pulled back from recent highs, and some high-leverage longs are currently taking floating losses. In this situation, big capital is still continuing to accumulate spot.
So today my view has started to shift compared with last night:
For now, I’m not willing to keep chasing shorts on ZEC.
The reason is simple— a high-level pullback is flushing out leverage, but the big spot capital hasn’t withdrawn at the same time. If selling pressure then starts to fade, and these spot chips keep staying on-chain, I’ll pay more attention to the next round of rebound rather than continuing to bet on a straight-line drop.
That said, I also won’t chase longs just because the whale bought.
What I’m really watching today is: after deleveraging ends, can the price show up with renewed, active buying?
Last night, it was the shorts making a move.
Today, it’s the spot whale continuing to buy.
Both sides have already put their money on the table—now let the price tell us who’s wrong.
$ZEC
#内容挖矿

Someone just chopped off a $31.10 million leveraged counterfeit long position, then turned around and used $8.20 million to short ZEC
I’ll be focusing on this deal tonight.
A large holder has just closed a leveraged altcoin long position worth more than $31.10 million, confirming a loss of about $1.248 million. Then, instead of exiting, they directly flipped to the short side, with the ZEC short position reaching roughly $8.20 million.
At the same time, ZEC has clearly pulled back today, and the market’s leveraged positions are dropping rapidly.
At this point, I actually don’t expect to see big holders shorting just to follow the short.
My take is: ZEC is currently going through a round of deleveraging at high levels. What’s truly worth trading isn’t the first leg of the decline, but whether the price can regain strength after the deleveraging.
If the price stabilizes and stops falling, open interest continues to decline, and meanwhile spot starts showing signs of support/absorption, I’ll treat it as a new bullish opportunity. Conversely, if during the rebound the trading volume clearly can’t keep up, I’ll be more inclined to look for downside in line with the big holder’s direction.
So tonight I won’t try to guess the bottom.
I’m going to wait until this $8.20 million short and the spot buy orders truly settle the score before deciding which side my next trade will stand on.
In this kind of setup, it’s far more interesting than just looking at a single red K-line.
$ZEC