云舒的投资日常

414 review, yesterday ETH experienced a part of the short position liquidation completely due to laziness... Replaying the candlestick, in fact, the indicators that were manipulated last week already hinted at the emergence of a short signal around 3 AM last night, but I didn't check..... I went to watch the scorched earth city TT

Filtered overseas bloggers on the Iran and Israel issues, focusing on those who predict the Iran-U.S. talks most accurately, especially those who predicted the failure of the last round of the 'Islamabad Talks' (April 10-12, 2026, which completely collapsed 21 hours later, with no agreement). These are predominantly English-speaking overseas analysts (from the U.S./UK/Israel background), not Chinese-speaking bloggers, specializing in Middle Eastern geopolitics, the Iran nuclear issue, and U.S.-Iran diplomacy. They have frequently predicted red line conflicts and negotiation breakdowns with high accuracy.
1. @LinaKhatibUK
Background: A Middle East expert of British/Lebanese descent, visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School, former deputy researcher of the Middle East Program at Chatham House, focusing on Iran, Lebanon, and regional conflicts. Long-term voice in think tanks and media.
Why: She publicly expressed skepticism in early April that 'there would be no diplomatic breakthrough in the short term' (off-ramp unlikely), accurately identifying the irreconcilable red lines between both parties regarding the nuclear issue, the Strait of Hormuz, and proxies (Lebanon).
Prediction Style: Calm, professional, does not take sides, often points out in advance that 'the gap between the positions of both sides is too large, negotiations are just a delay.' Suitable for those looking for neutral and in-depth analysis.
Follow Recommendation: Her posts often include the latest intelligence and historical comparisons, and her predictions for the next round (potentially resuming in Pakistan/Geneva) are also worth watching.

2. @JasonMBrodsky
Background: Policy Director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), focusing on the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA), sanctions, and regional threats. Frequently cited by U.S. media.
Why: He has consistently held a hardline skeptical attitude toward Iran's 'red lines' (enriched uranium, missiles, proxy networks), with multiple early warnings of failure.
Prediction Style: Hard-core, based on intelligence and official signals, often stating in advance that 'it won't work out, sanctions/military pressure will escalate.' Particularly accurate in predicting the Trump administration's Iran policy.
Follow Recommendation: If you want to see the U.S. perspective + details on nuclear issues, he is reliable.

3. @MonitorX99800
Background: Independent account focusing on global events/geopolitics, specializing in updates on the U.S., Middle East, and Europe.
Prediction Style: Real-time updates + citing official/intelligence, with a high probability of failure in predictions.
Follow Recommendation: As a supplement, information is fast but less deep than the previous two.

414 market thoughts
Yesterday's manipulation triggered a short squeeze market, with a large number of shorts being forcibly covered
This is a short squeeze market with OI flat + CVD rising
Currently, Coinbase has a slight premium, and there is no reversal from institutions
Saylor is still buying in earnest, generally it lasts only two or three days
We still need to see the actual buying volume in the next period
The current rally is driven by squeezing
Waiting for inertia in the next couple of days to see if anyone takes over
Looking for high short positions

Today the short-term strategy has been updated, which has been neglected for a long time.
Last night I watched the market until late at night and cognitively felt that the probability of the US and Iran reaching an agreement in the first round is very low, plus the typical algorithmic trading traces over the weekend.
Manipulation upward, the order book is extremely thin.
I have been waiting for a reversal opportunity to find a chance to bet.
I first established a short position in the early morning, when the first sentence from JD was "well," it was clear that one could infer an unsatisfactory tone, so I simply added to the short position.
The reasons are:
1) Pushing the JD + Kushner combination to negotiate is a contradiction; it represents Israel's interests or occupies a position in the negotiation considerations.
2) Even if Israel provokes the big brother to go to war, Israel's security in the Middle East is still one of America's core interests.
3) The economic interests of the negotiation content can be significantly compromised, but expecting the first round to make Iran give up the enriched nuclear material accumulated over so many years and abandon its nuclear weapons program is clearly extremely difficult; Iran has built so many missile bases as a backup, and now less than one-third have been destroyed.

The most uncertain factor is whether the new Iranian leader is as skilled in balancing internal forces as the previous generation.
These questions will continue to provide answers to #美伊和谈未能达成协议 .

Yesterday's strategy
Perfect bingo!

20251017- The market has priced in, and within a month, the gaming space will open up | Yunshu's Trading Daily
In the past few days, apart from increasing the short position the day before yesterday, there have been no other operations.
Several messages still have no possibility of materializing.
The main keyword in trading is 'instability.'
The main focus in the next week will be to welcome a series of instabilities for gaming and range testing.
Other factors for interest rate cuts have already lost new expectations beyond 25. The foreseeable future's relatively mild policy path has shown signs of fatigue, and it's become uninteresting. The Federal Reserve has been struggling to buffer the unresolved disputes on both sides of the macroeconomics in the past few days.
The upcoming time points are quite promising; the last wave of opportunities this year may unfold between the end of October and mid-November.
First, we must at least wait until the end of the month to sit down for discussions. Before that, the possibility of testing and washing key positions is 99.99%.
At least there is one wave of hard logic left.
Counter-trend + oscillation segments to create thick liquidity + liquidity hunting after reduced volume + open the future market trend.

In the near future, the second cryptocurrency will be relatively unfriendly to novices, so let's not elaborate.
Bitcoin
First, wait for the testing of the first position at 103350~105000; other positions are not significant.
After testing, observe the performance. This position is likely to have someone defending it in the medium to short term, and it can be viewed based on the logic of following the counter-trend.
The second position is 94750~97000, which is where a lot of external large funds have added positions. This is approximately a 10% drop from the current level. If it washes here, ETH will experience a breakout at 3620 to wash 3325~3370 nearby, then implement a double-bottom probing logic (if ETHBTC turns strong by at least 4% at this point, it would also be a good bullish signal).
Attached is the method used by Xianyu in the past few days~

1010 Continuing the trend of 0923, the long and short conversions during the holidays | Yunshu's trading routine
Continuing from the short positions of those two weeks from 0923, I continue to swing until the 27th when I start traveling, during which there were about two waves of long and short conversions.
I don't like playing memes, so I won't participate in things like coin an life.
Mainly because I'm too lazy to catch the hot ones, I'll let the post-00s sit and play.

$ETH Although but
Let you taste what it means to start hinting at a reversal two and a half weeks ago, and then the lines and trends are exactly the same. Every rebound is consistent.

Although, let me show you what it means to have started hinting at a short position two and a half weeks ago, and then the lines drawn and the trends are exactly the same. Every rebound is consistent.

0923 Written in the Big Drop
Why have I been continuously 🈳 Ethereum in the past two weeks [Folding Chair R]
1. The order book is clearly imbalanced: Some KOLs analyzing the so-called price fluctuations and the decrease in OI say that this is a good market logic, which is not valid. If you look carefully at the Asian market periods every day for over a week, you will see that there are many people who do not look at the structure and blindly go long, with very high leverage, making them excellent targets for hunting.
2. There is more than one force in the market: People in the market uniformly believe that the likes of BMNR have completely mastered the direction of ETH, but they have not considered that, firstly, they are still some distance from the target of the micro-strategy model, and secondly, although they are of a financing nature, there is no leverage. Therefore, if the liquidity clearance rights are held by CEX, they become passive sellers. Naturally, they are happy when the price rises; however, when it reaches a certain stage and starts to fall, there is also competition among the so-called main forces.
3. Insufficient liquidity: 25bp and the high position of gold indicate that divergence is about to appear: I mentioned in August that interest rate cuts generally lead to divergence and withdrawal phenomena. The US stock market is still relying on the relatively hybrid information from the FED to push higher, but it is clear that crypto should be in a position to wash out.
4. Indicator judgment: The indicators we use to monitor off-market activity levels have been continuously alarming, as well as the indicators for the ETHBTC currency pair, all showing hesitation of main funds and exhaustion of buy orders (this set excludes OTC buyers; the actions of coin-stock companies are not included in the analysis framework of the indicators).
$ETH

ETH Words Followed the Law
Slowly Appreciate the Chart, Brothers
A little show off, two segments of the downward structure followed the law of words.
It's also a day of horse-drawn cannons
I did not choose to roll over the warehouse myself, but instead did it in two segments, my own chart is at the end
The first chart was drawn during the significant rise at 918, and the off-site data no longer supports the ideal exposure.

912 review, regarding the layout of the dog and the second pancake
FYI.#btc #trader

The indicators are crazy

Can only draw now, family 😭

0825-0901 Review
I really have no desire to post... I don't understand how most KOLs in the b-circle manage to update every day.
I feel that the viewpoints themselves have little value.
This week, like in 2021, I guided a few trades in the group: Short on 8/25, Long on 8/26, then switched back to short, and managed to navigate it pretty well. There are too many charts, so I just casually posted a few to give an idea, not sure how to share more, anyway, no hindsight commentary.
In the coming period, don’t chase high risk-reward ratios, the winning chances will decrease, and the mindset will be easier to collapse. Broaden the range a bit, focus on swing trading, and combine with a small amount of quick in-and-out trades, it will be more comfortable.
Currently, the volatility is still high, and it won’t drop in the short term, which is a good sign.
The market is willing to give you opportunities, but remember that rhythm is more important than viewpoints.
#eth #btc

0825 Market: Liquidity is King in the Next Two Weeks

Can you not make money?

On the 15th, the logic of liquidity sweep was discussed in advance
and the elements of doing swing in conjunction with our indicators
were swept today～

God's Indicator Hahaha
Completely Free DM Me for Testing

I laughed so hard, always in first place, from 21 years ago until now, I've experienced too much.