陈副业

PCE inflation came in below expectations, and the market played out like a typical “buy the expectation, sell the fact” setup—after a push higher, prices collectively pulled back. Short-term overbought conditions have been corrected, but the larger trend hasn’t directly turned stronger.

$BTC is currently at 83,850. After the positive news was兑现, price moved into a consolidation range. Overhead resistance is 84,800–85,600. Support is at 83,100 and 82,600. As long as 83,100 holds, price remains within the box; a break below it would open the door to lower levels.

$ETH is currently at 2,703. After following the big coin’s impulse surge, it retraced—showing greater volatility. Resistance is 2,740–2,750, with support at 2,660 and 2,630.

$ZEC is currently at 1,408. It surged to 1,493 and then gave back a large portion. The swing is noticeably larger than that of most major coins. RSI has lifted again and MACD has formed a bullish crossover at low levels. This looks like a repair bounce after a sharp drop. 1,370 is the short-term “lifeline”; if it’s lost, momentum turns weaker.

Overall, altcoins carry higher risk. Don’t chase. Prefer to wait for a pullback to support before deciding, and watch for continued back-and-forth consolidation.

#加密货币 #比特币 #以太坊 #ZEC

The group’s sentiment has already gone one way—almost nobody is bearish. I, on the other hand, have started to be cautious.

Funding rates have stayed positive for a long time, open interest is at a new high, and the candles are pressuring for a squeeze day after day—more and more people are posting their long positions. This picture shows up in every cycle of the market.

So I’m not chasing longs. I’ll choose a slightly lighter short on BTC. I’m not bearish about the future—I’m bearish about this current wave of sentiment. My stop-loss is placed at the previous high. If it breaks, I’ll admit it and move on. My position isn’t heavy; I’m not betting my life.

Shorting isn’t a belief—just a trade. If I’m right, the market “serves me food”; if I’m wrong, discipline pays the bill.

I’m currently short. How many percent of your position are you using? Chat in the comments.

#比特币 #BTC #合约交易 #行情分析 $BTC

#美债收益率频创新高 The long-end interest rate is the stone laid on top of risk assets

The PCE data is clearly fine, yet the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still climbed to 5.3%, and the 30-year is above 5.6%—and the CCC-rated corporate bond spread suddenly broke through 1,000 basis points for the first time since the regional bank turmoil in 2023. When junk bond spreads widen this much, it indicates that capital is repricing low-rated credit and demanding higher risk compensation.

The real eye-catching signal is divergence: the market’s expectations for the next rate hike are cooling, but long-end yields refuse to come down. What people worry about has never been this one moment in time, but rather longer-term inflation, fiscal deficits, and debt supply.

That’s why BTC surged to 85598 and then got knocked back—valuation ceilings for non-yielding assets are being pinned down by long-end rates. The 85000–86000 area overhead is a hard resistance zone, with near-term support around 83000; if that breaks, watch 82000. In terms of trading, don’t chase—wait for yields to move decisively in a clear direction, or for support to show stabilization before considering whether to enter. At this point, watching from the sidelines is safer than stepping onstage. $BTC $ETH $ZEC

$ETH An ancient address moved. In the early hours, an old wallet that participated in ICOs in 2015 at a cost of $0.31 transferred 133,298 ETH (about $356 million) to a new address. With a cost of 0.31 and the current price around 2700, whether this is a long-term hold or a sell-off is worth watching.

On the other side, institutions are pulling back. Spot ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive days, with about $59.58 million on September 30 alone, and Fidelity and Grayscale together withdrawing more than $50 million. Institutions retreating while retail investors rush in — the script feels familiar.

Macro conditions are also capping upside. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still around 5.3%, a high not seen since 2002, keeping risk asset valuations tightly suppressed; ETH and BTC remain highly correlated, and after BTC’s rally, it too has been pulled back by yields.

Technically, ETH has repeatedly tested 2747 without success, RSI has retreated from elevated levels, and upside room looks limited; for now it is barely holding above the 2691 SMA7. If the daily close falls below 2689, the first support at 2630 will likely come under pressure, and 2597 is the real next stop.

#ETH #以太坊 #BTC #加密货币 #MarketAnalysis

Didn't eat properly for three days. Today I wanted to treat myself with a bowl of oil-poured noodles. The noodles were just brought out, and I glanced at the candlestick chart (K-line) at random—instantly I lost my appetite.

CORE is currently quoted at 0.02208, down 4.62% in the past 24 hours, with the low hitting 0.02197. Yesterday it looked pretty good with unrealized gains, but today I gave it all back. The KDJ indicator is diverging downward; the short-term trend is clearly weak. The resistance level at 0.02297 is holding tight above.

The noodles still have to be finished, but I definitely won’t add to my position to “average down” or fight the single. The money made from hard labor is blood and sweat—when the market moves, my heart drops along with it.

For National Day, just take a good rest and hold your spot positions, pretending to be inactive. Protect your principal and earn slowly. Living well matters more than anything.

$CORE $BTC #CORE #加密行情 #国庆

The most tormenting thing in short-term trading isn’t losing money—it’s making 50U and then running, only to watch the market keep going up. The rest of the profit that follows has nothing to do with you. In a fit of anger, you put the entire fund straight into another asset. You didn’t check the technicals, didn’t plan the entry price, and everything relied on your instincts from watching the chart during that period to guess how the main force operates. In plain terms, it’s basically a gamble. After things cool down, you also understand that futures contracts themselves carry high risk, and relying on guessing fund movements is the least reliable approach. All you can do is wait for the market to give the result—and remind yourself that no matter whether you profit or lose, next time you must never place orders so impulsively again.

Bitcoin is so “tough”—so what exactly is it waiting for?

A bunch of data looks all bearish, yet BTC refuses to come out with a big waterfall drop. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is ridiculously high—keeping money in the bank or buying Treasuries feels worthwhile. The Fed just raised rates once in September, and there may be another hike by late October. But on the other side, spot ETFs saw net inflows of more than $2 billion in the week after mid-to-late September. Public companies are treating BTC as a reserve, and large holders aren’t so quick to dump anymore. Real money keeps buying, so the price naturally gets held up.

Above 84000 to 86000 lies a pile of trapped positions, with $BTC sitting over that range. $ETH is grinding between 2680 and 2720; support sits at 2620 to 2660 below it, and if it breaks further, 2500 is the key strong support. Meanwhile, $SOL keeps jumping around near 119; 116 to 117 is nearby support, and 112 is strong support—only if 112 breaks can a big waterfall be likely.

Tonight’s U.S. September non-farm payrolls data: if employment is too strong, rate-hike expectations will likely rebound.

#比特币 #以太坊 #SOL $BTC $ETH $SOL

From entering the crypto scene in 2017 until now, I’ve played with knockoffs, memes, and runes, and I’ve also done quite a few contracts. I’ve made money and lost money too. After winding around for so long, I’ve come to feel more and more that: holding BTC long-term suits me better than constantly guessing whether it’ll go up or down.

Over the years, every so often there’s been someone shouting about the “next BTC”—a new name every round, a new batch of hype—but BTC is still there.

My current approach is simple: use low-leverage long BTC, and short memes like PENGU—projects like these are often dumped by the team over the long run, and the community’s negativity keeps piling on. When confidence starts to fade, selling follows.

I’m bullish on BTC—not because I’m betting that it will rise tomorrow, but because I recognize its long-term certainty. Anyone can miss out on a knockoff, but once the cycle runs its course, BTC is never absent.

#BTC #PENGU #Trading experience

SOL has been squeezed around 117 these past few days, repeatedly probing. The resistance zone overhead at 120.6—122.9 couldn’t be broken through; yesterday it spiked up to 122.9 and was rejected back, closing at 119.3, with volume also contracting.

From a technical structure perspective: 120.6—122.9 is the first hurdle; above that lies 123.5—125.0. Below, 117.0 is the key support—once there’s an effective breakdown, it’s likely first to see the 116.4 area.

My personal view: for the short term, first watch whether 119.3 can be regained and held. If it can’t hold, treat it as digestion after the rebound—don’t chase higher at the current level. If you’re holding positions, closely monitor the support strength around 117.0. If it can’t hold, reduce a bit as appropriate and take back control. Position management is always more important than predicting price.

$SOL #SOL #Solana #cryptocurrency

Why do contract fees cost more for some people and less for others? Actually, it’s just one action

First, the conclusion: instant execution = taking orders, fee 0.05%; placing limit orders further away from the current price and slowly queuing for a fill only costs 0.02%. Going back and forth is over twice as much.

Many people think that choosing a limit order means just “placing” an order in the book—but not necessarily. For example, if the current price is 100,000, and you place a buy order at 100,0001 thousand, the system will immediately match and take the existing orders on the order book to execute the trade. It’s nominally a limit order, but in practice you’re charged the take-order fee of 0.05%.

To get the lower fee rate, there’s just one sentence: for buy orders, set the price lower than the current price; for sell orders, set it higher than the current price, and be patient while waiting in the queue. If you frequently enter and exit at market price, the yearly trading fees are enough to buy quite a few lots.

The above is only personal experience sharing and does not constitute investment advice. Contract trading carries high risk—profits and losses are your own responsibility.

#BTC #ETH #Must-read for beginners

$BTC is stuck again, grinding back and forth around 82,000. With repeated probing it still won’t hold steady—every brief spike higher makes people think it’s stable enough to chase, and precisely at this moment it’s the most dangerous. Often, a reversal and a sell-off happens right after everyone relaxes their guard. 82,000 is not a “bottom,” it’s a psychological trap.

ETH is similarly weak. It has already broken below 2,650 before, dipping as low as 2,626. If tonight it again breaches 2,580, the downside room will open up further. After the PCE inflation data was released, the market barely reacted—rate-hike expectations had already been priced in ahead of time. What truly determines the chart now is Micron’s after-hours earnings report at 4:00 a.m. AI chip demand—whether it’s strong or not—this earnings report matters more than any macro data. If it misses expectations, tech stocks will come under pressure, and the crypto market will also follow with volatility.

#BTC #ETH #PCE #Micron earnings report

On the eve of Non-Farm Payrolls, BTC is being locked inside a large range, churning back and forth: the upper boundary is around 85,000, the lower boundary around 79,500. In the middle, it’s repeated tug-of-war—whoever gets too eager to call a breakout too soon is the one most likely to get hit.

The short-term watershed lies at 84,500–85,000. Price has repeatedly surged up there and then pulled back; sell pressure is quite substantial. Only if it can stand firm on rising volume does the long side truly get the key to open up upside space. If it pushes into that zone and stalls, there’s a high chance it will turn back.

The first line of defense below is 81,700–82,200. As long as it holds the range-bound structure, the consolidation can continue. What absolutely cannot be lost is 79,500–80,000—the core support area on the daily timeframe. Once there is an effective breakdown below it, the consolidation pattern ends, and the room for a pullback will expand noticeably.

When the data is released, anyone can get slapped. My approach is to wait for price to choose a direction on its own, and then follow only after a break. Are you betting that after Non-Farm, it breaks out upward first—or that it tests support first? #BTC #非农 #行情分析

BTC earning interest is almost a false premise, but “risk-free BTC interest” definitely isn't.

BTC itself does not generate any cash flow. Any extra return, in essence, means you have sold something: liquidity, upside potential, credit risk, custody security, smart contract risk, or tail risk.

For those who prioritize growth denominated in coin above all else, a cold wallet with 0% annual yield is actually the most worry-free answer. #BTC

Near #BTC 83500, someone’s plan is to go long at 81888, with a stop-loss set below 80000. The logic is that three layers of support stack together: 82000 to 83000 is viewed as the average cost zone for ETF investors, and further down around 80000 there is support from the 365-day moving average. The macro picture also helps: the Core PCE year-over-year released on September 30 came in at 3.0%, below the 3.3% expected, hitting the lowest since February this year. Market pricing for an October rate hike fell from 66% to around 45%. By year-end, the expectation of another 50 basis points also dropped from 55% to 35%. In terms of liquidity, spot ETF flows have been net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with September’s total nearing $3 billion. The first target is 84500 to 85000; if that breaks, then look at 86500. Position size: 10% to 15%; leverage no more than 3x. The data is relatively dovish—institutions are buying—but support is only a matter of probability, not a promise. Don’t treat your stop-loss as decoration. #加密货币 #BTC

Last night’s U.S. core PCE was released: the year-over-year figure came in at 3.0%, below expectations. The month-over-month increase was only 0.2%. Market pricing for a rate hike in October cooled noticeably, and institutions also pushed expectations for the next hike out to December.

But don’t read “no rate hike” directly as “rate cuts.” Inside the Fed, some still insist they won’t ease until inflation returns to 2%. As long as employment doesn’t deteriorate, the hawkish stance remains in place.

The next key event is the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): if the data are strong, pressure for rate hikes returns and BTC will face headwinds; if the data are weaker, there’s room for the easing narrative to get traction.

The chart has already offered an answer—BTC surged toward 85,500 and was pushed back down. There’s heavy sell pressure overhead. Near-term support is around 82,000, with resistance at 85,000. Betting heavily on a direction before the data are finalized isn’t worth it; wait until NFP effectively pins down the direction, then act.

$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC #美联储 #NFP

$BTC $ETH This market action is a bit surreal. This move in Ethereum has been almost exactly the same as the rally back in August: it came up from 2800, keeps trying to break through 2750 over and over, but it can’t. Next, there are basically two paths—either a big bullish candle that shoots straight up, or a waterfall-like dump. But right now, at the 2700 level, under a bear-market backdrop, which do you believe more? If you push higher, even using the most conservative 10% estimate, you still have to head straight for 3000—would it really be that easy? So I’m choosing to add shorts at this point. If you’re willing to go long, you can come be my counterparty.$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%

Trump’s latest remarks: “I’ve become a passionate supporter of crypto assets. I’m a fan.” He admitted that before the midpoint of his first term, he didn’t understand this market. It was only after he saw capital continuously flowing in that he changed course—and even tossed out the line, “If the United States doesn’t have it, China will have it.”

Even more thought-provoking is that when asked whether he would put Bitcoin into children-oriented investment accounts, “Trump Accounts,” he left the remark, “Maybe something could happen.”

There’s still no definitive conclusion at this point, but just being willing to loosen his stance in official settings is enough for the market to think through several layers. U.S. policy tone is becoming a key variable in market moves.#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto

The moment ADP Non-Farm Jobs report came out, the market pulled up with a big bullish candle. Many people thought they had finally gotten through the clouds and were about to see the bright moon. Then, with a turn, another large bearish candle smashed it back down—right when the late-chasers were chasing the price, they became bag-holders.

This is actually a true snapshot of the current market: gains don’t continue, and declines don’t go deep. After Bitcoin pulled back from 87,000, it has been repeatedly tugging between 82,000 and 84,000. The volatility is enough to scare people, but the spot holders’ coins are still being steadily accumulated—more like a rotation/hand-switching phase than a full trend reversal. Ethereum is chopping narrowly around 2,650, while 2,750–2,800 forms a strong resistance zone in the short term. On-chain data doesn’t look bad, but what’s missing is incremental capital entering with volume confirmation. Dogecoin is hovering near 0.093; momentum is clearly cooling off. Yet community enthusiasm hasn’t diminished—sentiment and price action are clearly diverging.

On the macro side, rate expectations and fund flows are still weighing on risk appetite. It’s hard for several major coins to decouple and run independent trends. After you’ve been through getting fooled once, you should know this: controlling your position size and responding in batches matters far more than trying to guess whether prices will rise or fall.

#BTC #ETH #DOGE #Federal Reserve

After the XDP new coin surged and then weakened all the way, the current price is 0.01994. The resistance above is 0.02401, and the support below is 0.01961. The coin’s holders’ positions are unstable, with extremely large fluctuations. The downside momentum has not been fully released yet. Once support is broken, it is likely to continue falling toward lower levels. Resistance overhead is heavy. In this stage, it is not recommended to bottom-fish; wait for confirmation signals that the trend has stabilized. $BTC $XDP $SOON #PCE数据 #美光财报 #US Treasury yields

The money has already entered the market—what breath does SOL still need?

First, look at real inflows: over the past week, U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $190 million. All seven products recorded inflows, which carries far more weight than just a sentence about “sentiment improving.” But since roughly 68% of the capital is concentrated in a single issuer, the next thing to watch is whether the buying pressure can keep spreading—rather than counting last week’s inflows again as future buying.

Next, look at how enterprises adopt this line: the reserve mechanism converts part of on-chain and off-chain service revenues into tokens and deposits them into the reserve. That gives business growth a traceable transmission path. Going forward, what matters is the actual conversion of revenue—not treating every partnership announcement as an equal amount of buying.

One more thing to distinguish is the quality of revenue: higher trading activity doesn’t necessarily translate into the same amount of income per trade. Fee rates and trading structure will affect where buybacks come from. What’s needed now is to see demand improving and prices stabilizing together—don’t rush to convert the bustle into potential upside space. #SOL #LINK #HYPE #cryptocurrency