Kralice 1

Dün “düşüş bekliyorduk” ve piyasa tam da o tarafa çalıştı. Ama mesele sadece grafik değildi. Yine aynı şeyi söylüyorum: Petrol yükselirse enflasyon korkusu geri gelir. Enflasyon korkusu geri gelirse Fed daha sertleşebilir. Fed daha sertleşirse $BTC gibi riskli varlıklar zorlanır. Bugün buna bir de teknoloji hisseleri ve Fed haftası öncesi pozisyon azaltma eklendi. ETH ve DOGE’nin daha sert düşmesi bana şunu söylüyor: Piyasa en riskli taraflardan para çekiyor. Bu henüz büyük panik değil ama risk azaltma net. ABD verileri de çok rahatlatıcı gelmedi. Hizmet PMI güçlü geldi. İmalat hâlâ büyüyor. Yeni konut satışları toparlanıyor. 🚨 Üstüne petrol ve savaş riski var. Fed toplantısı 28-29 Temmuz’da. Karar 29 Temmuz - Çarşamba akşamı gelecek. Asıl hareketi o gün Warsh’ın tonu belirleyecek! Benim yönüm bugün: SABİT-AŞAĞI Bitcoin tekrar güçlenmek istiyorsa önce kaybettiği bölgeyi geri almalı. (64,2K) Aksi halde bu hareket bana sağlıklı düzeltmeden çok Fed öncesi risk azaltma gibi geliyor.

Haberlerden dolayı BTC’de düşüş bekliyorduk ve açıkçası bu düşüş bana şaşırtıcı gelmedi. Çünkü mesele sadece grafik değil. 1⃣ Savaş çanları yeniden çalıyor. 2⃣ Petrol yükseliyor. 3⃣ Fed faiz artırımı ihtimali tekrar konuşuluyor. Bu üçlü $BTC için rahat bir ortam değil. İran’dan gelen mesaj çok net: “Eğer İran petrol satamazsa kimse satamaz.” Bu direkt Hürmüz riskini masaya koyuyor. Petrol yükselirse enflasyon korkusu geri gelir. Enflasyon korkusu geri gelirse Fed daha sert kalabilir. Bugün gelen ABD işsizlik başvuruları da çok güçlüydü: 187K. Normalde güçlü ekonomi güzel bir şey gibi görünür ama kripto için bazen tam tersi çalışır. Çünkü Fed’e “ekonomi hâlâ dayanıklı, sıkı kalabiliriz” alanı verir. Grafikte ne görüyorum? BTC 66K üstüne attı ama kalamadı. Günlükte 50 EMA çevresinden satış geldi. 64.2K hâlâ karar seviyesi. Benim yönüm bugün: SABİT-AŞAĞI 64.2K tutulursa tepki gelebilir. Ama 65K üstü geri alınmadan ben rahatlamam. 64.2K kaybedilirse 63K bölgesi yeniden masaya gelir. Tesla’nın BTC satmamış olması güzel. Ama bu yeni alım değil, sadece “satmadılar” haberi. BitMEX’in kapanması ise sembolik olarak önemli. Eski kaldıraç döneminin devlerinden biri sahneden çekiliyor. Destekleri izleyelim, petrolü izleyelim ve en önemlisi Fed beklentisini izleyelim.

For today, for BTC in a clear way: The charts are POSITIVE. 😁💛 But I consider the risks from war and oil to be very important. In fact, the increase in negative news coming from Hormuz and the fear of oil triggering renewed inflation are very real risks. Goldman Sachs’ $120 Brent warning is not for nothing. But the market hasn’t put that on top today. What the market is looking at today is this: 1⃣ ETFs are positive for five straight days. 2⃣ The odds for the Clarity Act have improved. 3⃣ AI/chip stocks have come back to life. 4⃣ $BTC has broken above the 50 EMA on the daily chart. That’s why the price surged quickly above 66K. The most important technical detail for me is this: if the uptrend is to continue, the 50 EMA on the daily can no longer act as resistance—it has to work as support. We need to see staying power above 65K. Also, Polymarket being this strong at a BTC price of 67.5K, in my view, is pricing in: ETF inflows + regulatory hope + a technical breakout + a short squeeze. But let’s not give in to FOMO. Because the war/oil risk hasn’t left the table. If oil rises, the Fed’s room to relax shrinks. That will block BTC’s path! My direction today: UP, but with caution. As long as we hold above 65K, the rally continues. 67K–67.5K is the first serious test. If we revert below 64.2K, this nice picture is spoiled. In short: The charts are good. The news flow is good. But geopolitical risk is still on the table—stay careful!

This week started nicely, but let’s see if it will continue nicely. #crypto BTC looks clearly more positive. Last week, 64.2K was the decision level for us. BTC reclaimed it, turned it into support, and pushed above 65K today. I also think it’s important that it broke above the 50 EMA on the daily chart. However, sales came in again around 65.5K. So the market wants to move higher, but sellers haven’t fully disappeared. I think today’s most important part is the topic of Saylor and Tom Lee. Strategy didn’t buy $BTC. It slowed down its $ETH purchases at Bitmine. Both of them have shifted more toward cash / balance sheet management. That means the largest institutional buyers aren’t as aggressive as before. That’s why I’m watching the ETF side very carefully. Yes, inflows have returned, but they’re not strong enough yet to shout “institutions are back.” Another risk is oil. Due to the US-Iran tensions, oil is rising again, and the gas price in the US has reached the $4 level again. If oil rises, fears about inflation return. If inflation fears return, it will be harder for the Fed to relax. That could create pressure for BTC. My direction: UP, but cautiously. As long as we stay above 64.2K, the upside scenario is on the table. If we manage to hold above 65.6K, the move strengthens. But if it’s sold again above 65K, this might only remain a reaction rally. I don’t want to chase FOMO, but we also have to give credit where it’s due for the beautiful chart.

This week, my focus in crypto will be on the economic calendar. What happened last week? US CPI and PPI came in slightly softer than expected. In other words, the kind of easing the market wanted on the inflation front arrived, and $BTC priced that positively. Behind our move above 64.2K was not only the chart, but also macro easing. This week, however, there isn’t an inflation data release of the same magnitude from the US. So I’ll be looking at the following: • Is oil rising again? Since the Hormuz/Iran risk remains, oil is still important. If oil rises, inflation concerns could return. • How will US jobless claims come in? (Thursday) If the labor force stays very strong, the Fed’s hawkish stance will be supported. If it comes in very weak, recession fears could emerge this time. I want to see “a controlled cooldown.” • What will US PMI say? (Friday) If PMI is strong, growth looks good but Fed pressure could increase. If it’s weak, rate expectations may ease in the short term, but too much weakness could harm risk appetite. • How hawkish will the ECB be? (Thursday) Even if European rates stay unchanged, the tone matters. If global central banks are still saying “inflation hasn’t ended,” then crypto won’t be priced with enthusiasm. This week, we’ll look not at a single data point, but at the overall tone. Last week, the data supported BTC. Will that support continue, or will the market say, “Okay, inflation has fallen, but growth and oil are still risks”?

Bitcoin has shown us this again and again in the last few weeks: Breaking resistance isn’t enough. It needs to hold above it. So Bitcoin’s rise over the last 24 hours isn’t sufficient by itself. 💛 What’s good about this weekend? ETFs turned positive on Friday. This matters, because lately BTC’s biggest problem has been weakness on the demand side. Seeing money inflows on the ETF side indicates that, at least, selling pressure is being balanced somewhat. Another notable headline is the options market. Big players are taking upward positions toward the end of the month—around the Fed meeting period. Some large trades are targeting the 72K area. But let’s not misread this. It doesn’t mean “BTC will definitely go to 72K.” More like the market is pricing in the possibility of an upward move. What I’ll be watching next week: 1⃣ Do ETF inflows continue? 2⃣ Before the Fed, are the dollar and rates calm? 3⃣ Does oil start creating inflation fears again? 4⃣ Can BTC demonstrate staying power above resistance? My bias for now is steady-up. But $BTC must hold its supports, and the move should be supported by ETFs/macro.

Today Bitcoin’s 64.2k is again the main level. Yesterday it took some selling, but today the price is trying to return to this zone. It’s nice that the Friday ETF flows are positive: $BTC ETFs saw $132 million in inflows, and IBIT is strong. But the picture isn’t fully positive. The likelihood of the CLARITY Act has dropped to 32%. That means regulatory clarity is being delayed. Also, China’s Kimi K3 model disrupted the AI/chip trade; BTC has been moving alongside that risk appetite lately. For Bitcoin: staying above 64.2k is positive. The 65k–65.6k area can be retested. If it slips below 63.2k, I’ll be cautious. My bias for today: sideways-to-up. We can’t fall for FOMO, but there’s hope thanks to the ETF side.

Bitcoin told us something very clear: 65K is still a resistance and it will be difficult to break the selling pressure. Yesterday we had a nice rally with the inflation data, but today that rally was sold off. $BTC lost 64.2k and returned to the support zone we expected: 62.7k–63k. I think the issue is not just the chart. Both long-term investors and short-term traders are using the 65k rally as a selling opportunity. That turns 65k into a psychological ceiling. ETFs were positive, yes. But $79 million in inflows wasn’t enough to break through this selling wall. And there’s also the external market: the chip/AI trade is unwinding. $ETH fell harder, and $HYPE dropped 10%. In other words, crypto was sold today along with global risk appetite. For Bitcoin: if 62.7k holds, we could see a reaction. If 64.2k is reclaimed, the market gets some breathing room. If it goes below 62k, then 61.6k and 60k are back on the table. My direction today: down / steady.

The macro backdrop for crypto is good. Yes, ETFs are positive. But above 65k, selling pressure is still high. $BTC rose nicely with inflation data, but today it couldn’t hold above the 65k area. Long-term investors buying from higher levels are using the upside as an exit opportunity, while short-term investors buying from the dip are taking profits. So the issue here is a sell wall above. That’s why we need stronger momentum. For Bitcoin, these levels are important: if 64.2k is reclaimed, the market gets some breathing room. If it can stay above 65.6k persistently, then we can talk about 67.2k as the target. My outlook for today: FIXED-DOWN. 65k is not support yet; it’s still a test :/

Today’s CPI reduced pressure on the Fed. That’s net positive for $BTC. But for a real bull run, three things are needed: • A decline in inflation risk • A decline in Oil/Hormuz pressure • Ensuring BTC can hold above 65.6k and 67.2k A nice ignition came today. But confirmation is still needed for a trend reversal. Today’s Direction: UP

Today, the market clearly priced in the US CPI data. US inflation came in at 3.5%, below expectations. The monthly CPI also showed a decline. With core inflation coming in softer than expected, the market priced in this: “The Fed’s pressure to raise interest rates is easing.” That’s why $BTC very quickly broke through the 64.2k resistance and rose to the 64.6k–64.8k zone, as we can see on the chart.

Despite the weekend war news, Bitcoin hadn’t collapsed. That’s why I said we should be careful against sudden drops. On Monday, when the real liquidity arrived, the market priced in the bad news. $BTC got rejected at the 64.2k resistance (this part is very important), then with the war-news-driven selling accelerating, it dropped into the 62k area. Oil is rising, the Hormuz risk is increasing, and the Fed’s inflation pressure is coming back to mind. On the strategy side, the good news is this: this time, they didn’t sell BTC. They increased cash reserves, but the BTC position didn’t change. WARNING: If 62.1k is held, a reaction could come. If 61.2k breaks, 60k comes back onto the table. Today’s direction: stable-down.

Today the crypto market is surprisingly calm. 🥲 Despite the U.S. carrying out new attacks on Iran and Iran saying it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, $BTC stayed roughly flat around 64.1k; $ETH is also calm around $1,800. The real big reaction will most likely come from the oil market at the Monday opening. 💥🤯 Iran says “Hormuz is closed,” while the U.S. says “open to all ships.” This contradiction is important because the market is trying to figure out whether this is an actual closure right now or just a political threat. While U.S. Central Command says traffic is continuing, some sources say crossings are below normal. But the fact that BTC doesn’t fall today is important. For now, the market isn’t pricing this news in panic. Sustainability above 64.2k: Positive.

Crypto today, the real question is this: did the rally stall again, or was it just taking a breather? About $85 million flowed out of the $BTC ETFs. I don’t think that alone is a reason for panic; it could have been expected after yesterday’s drop. But it’s important that the ETH ETFs stayed positive—this means the market isn’t fully backing away from crypto; it’s being selective. On the macro side, unemployment claims came in stronger than expected. That doesn’t really make things easier for the Fed. I think if BTC can’t reclaim 63.2K, the risk of 62K and 60.7K remains on the table. My stance today: FIXED. The market isn’t making a decision right now—it’s either gathering strength or preparing for another selloff, and we’re watching to see which.

Why Did the Rise in Crypto Markets Stop? I said that as long as Bitcoin stays above 63.2k, it would move higher; once it lost support, the upside scenario weakened. On the charts, we can see rejections coming from resistance levels. The recovery may take a bit longer. In the news flow, Trump’s statement that the Iran ceasefire is “over” boosted oil and led to selling in risk assets. $BTC couldn’t escape this sell-off either. Additionally: * Trump threatened to cut trade with Spain * The Central Bank of India may ban crypto. * Even though the ETF trend stayed positive, inflows were still quite low. *** FOMC minutes: to be released tonight in Turkey time. Not yet announced. If a hawkish tone comes through (near a rate-hike tone), USD/bond yields could strengthen and pressure on BTC could increase. Today, the direction looks DOWN. There is pressure on Bitcoin.

Today, after a long break, I’m speaking comfortably for the first time. ETFs are positive again. 🎉🥳 $BTC saw $265 million in inflows into ETFs, and $ETH ETFs are also positive. The $209 million inflow into IBIT is especially important because in the recent drop, the part that was most demoralizing was the disappearance of institutional demand. Bitcoin is currently around 64k. The next real test is 65k–65.6k. Polymarket is pricing this in: the probability of seeing 65k in July is 86%, and the probability of 67.5k is 55%. In other words, the market now seriously sees the possibility of continuation upward, not just a downside. However, the Fed side is still not fully supportive. This year’s rate cut expectations are weak. Also, longs are at twice the level of shorts—this means it can push upward, but it also means there’s a risk of fast liquidations if it goes down. Pay attention! My plan is clear: stay positive as long as we hold above 63.2k. 65k–65.6k is the MAIN EXAM. My direction today: UP.

Today the market fell with the news “Saylor sold it” | Bitcoin immediately reacted. Strategy bought $3,588 BTC. Total is approximately $216 million. Saylor is no longer just the buyer; when needed, he’s the seller too. This is what breaks the market’s morale. But the good side: support wasn’t completely broken (On the charts, clear buy reactions from support are visible). Right now, BTC is still trying to stay afloat. The ISM data also didn’t come in too badly. The services sector is still growing, but slowing a bit. Normally, that could have supported BTC, but the Strategy selling outweighed it. My plan: if 61.3k is preserved, there’s no panic. But if 61.3k breaks, 60k and 58.8k will come back on the table. Today’s stance: NEUTRAL. Neither bullish nor bearish. The market is making a decision right now.

Bitcoin was focused on an upward move over the weekend. 🎉 This move from 58k to above 63k is great—actually morale-boosting. But part of the rally came in low liquidity due to the July 4 holiday. Still, let’s give credit where it’s due: 60k was reclaimed, a test was made above 62.5k, and on the ETF side we finally saw a positive day. My focus now for $BTC is in the 65k–66k zone. If Bitcoin can’t take that area, then this move will likely remain a reaction rally. Today’s direction: steady-up.

Bitcoin is looking good! $BTC

10-DAY BITCOIN ETF OUTFLOW SERIES HAS ENDED! 🎉 I think this is the most important news of today. This is the strongest daily inflow in two months. US markets are closed today due to the July 4 holiday. In crypto, weekend volatility may increase because of low liquidity. It was like that last time too. Also, now more $BTC is being held at a loss than at a profit. BTC held at a loss: 10.83 million BTC held at a profit: 9.22 million Historically, similar readings in 2018–2019 and in 2022 were seen close to the bottom regions. 🔴 What bothered me today: we got the news that whales sent 49k BTC to exchanges. This could mean potential sell-pressure. That’s why it’s crucial to see whether the 62K resistance can be broken. And here’s what we should keep in mind: the 200-week moving average is about $62,660. So 62K above is good, but it’s early to say “we’re relieved” without breaking the 62.6k–63k zone.