偷偷炒币的巴菲特

#FTX
The cruelest thing about investing isn’t getting it wrong.

It’s getting it right, but not living to see the day it pays off.

If Anthropic goes public at a high valuation, the early VCs will be the first to make a fortune.

But what this news really made me think of was FTX.

FTX had bet on Anthropic, too.
The asset was right, and so was the direction.
But the platform died first.

The hundreds of billions in returns that came later, however impressive, had nothing to do with it.

That’s the most heartbreaking thing about investing. Many people—including me—are like FTX: we miss out on big wins in crypto because we can’t hold on to our assets until the dawn breaks!

You chose the right asset.
But if you can’t hold on to the end, it’s all for nothing. #BTC

🚨 Warning: If you don’t want your positions to blow up in an instant, avoid using high leverage over the next 10 days‼️

Let’s take a look at what’s coming up:

- October 27: Israeli elections
- October 28: FOMC meeting
- October 28: Google and Meta earnings
- October 29: Amazon and Apple earnings
- November 3: U.S. midterm elections

Any one of these events could trigger extreme market volatility and a sharp move in either direction.

$BTC is fighting hard near a major support level. Every other asset class is looking weak, inflation remains high, and oil is above $100.

Bitcoin has already lost its 50-day moving average today. If $80,000 gives way, panic will set in, and the market will have to look for support at $76,000.

As long as Bitcoin holds above $76,100, near its weekly 50-day moving average, it remains in a bull trend! I’ll keep monitoring the situation and share updates as they come⏰

#市场定价美联储下周加息概率仅10%

Although the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October is close to 90%, there’s still around a 75% chance of at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by December.

More and more on Wall Street believe the U.S. economy is strong enough for the Fed to keep raising rates.

People used to hope for rate cuts every day, thinking the economy was about to collapse.

Now the economy hasn’t collapsed, and the Fed actually has the confidence to keep tightening.

But an economy that’s doing better than expected isn’t necessarily good news for asset prices.

That’s the market’s biggest contradiction!

Investors want a strong economy that sends corporate profits soaring, while also wanting a weak economy that gets the Fed to turn on the taps.

You can’t have it both ways—you’ll end up with nothing! 😄

#BTC

When the nest topples, not a single egg stays intact!

On October 22, global hedge funds suffered one of their worst single-day losses since the pandemic.

A tech sell-off sent $NVDA lower, while $META plunged. The crowded AI trade is starting to backfire on money managers.

Human nature doesn’t discriminate by wealth or status. Wall Street isn’t any more immune to greed than ordinary investors just because it wears a suit. 😄

#NVDA #meta

#回购
I’ve noticed a new belief taking shape in crypto: if a protocol makes money and buys back its token, it deserves a high valuation.

Especially $HYPE and $ASTER .

HYPE directs about 99% of the fees generated by related protocol activity toward buybacks and burns. The revenue comes from real trading activity, and the buybacks are relatively transparent.

I recognize that. But holding HYPE is not the same as owning equity in Hyperliquid. You benefit from the potential economic gains of a shrinking token supply, not from a legal claim on profits or assets.

Now look at ASTER. It also uses 99% of daily platform fees for buybacks. The tokens bought back are distributed to veASTER lockers, while an equivalent amount of tokens is burned from the reserve.

That sounds even more aggressive than a stock buyback. But there’s an easily overlooked detail:

Burning reserve tokens that were never in circulation is not the same as directly reducing the amount currently circulating in the market.

And the buyback proceeds primarily reward lockers. Ordinary token holders and long-term lockers receive different economic benefits.

That’s why I’ve always felt the market puts a little too much faith in buyback rates.

When a publicly listed company buys back its shares, shareholders generally have a clear residual claim.

Many crypto tokens confer no legal claim to the protocol’s revenue on their holders, even if the protocol earns hundreds of millions a year.

What’s more, buyback mechanisms may be subject to governance rules, and protocol revenue is not necessarily the same as sustainable profit.

A $10 million buyback is easy to understand. The hard part is figuring out who that $10 million is actually creating value for.

I’m bullish on tokens that can genuinely capture economic value, but I’m not willing to slap a stock-style P/E multiple on a protocol based solely on its buyback rate.

It’s not hard to calculate how much is being bought back. The hard question is: what exactly do token holders own?

#hype #代币回购

#比特币算力创七个月新高

An industry can become increasingly successful while squeezing a group of participants out of the game.

Bitcoin is becoming more secure, but miners may find it increasingly difficult to make money.

BTC hash rate hits a seven-month high.

Many people see this news and immediately take it as bullish.

But a rising hash rate means fiercer competition. If the price and fee revenue don’t keep pace, miners’ earnings per unit of hash power may actually be squeezed.

#BTC

#Pepe上涨14%领涨山寨币反弹

Sometimes the biggest joke in crypto is that even scammers think other people aren't serious enough.

$PEPE rebounds, and people have started talking about altcoin season again.

I think the most honest thing about $MEME coin is that it has never promised it could justify its valuation with profits.

Meanwhile, some projects claim to have technology, an ecosystem, and a future. They raise round after round and unlock tokens time after time, yet holders can't see even a penny of value captured. $ASTER

You can call Meme worthless.

But how much more sophisticated are those coins with their glossy white papers, whose teams are funded by retail investors left holding the bag?

#pepe #山寨币

#股票财报季
Wow!!! While Wall Street is still debating whether AI is a bubble, Amazon has already sold out its cloud computing capacity through 2028.$AMZNB

In 2026, most of its capacity is sold out.

In 2027, most large-scale capacity is already booked.

In 2028, many customers have already locked in capacity in advance.

Amazon is preparing to spend around $220 billion on capital expenditures this year.

But customers being willing to book in advance only proves that demand exists; it doesn’t prove that suppliers will ultimately make money.

If computing rental prices fall in the future, or customers delay fulfilling their commitments, today’s orders could become tomorrow’s profit pressure.

So what I most want to know right now is:

Is the AI industry experiencing a genuine capacity shortage, or are all these companies buying up a future they may not even be able to use?

This is a question worth keeping a close eye on!#币圈巴菲特

#思考
Here we go again. Always the same. Still the same!

Remember X’s white-haired stock guru? The stocks she strongly recommended have recently tanked! She recently posted a screenshot of her losses:

A loss of $13,589,443—nearly 100 million yuan

There are no gods in this world. But when enough people believe, one is born.

Bull markets are especially good at creating stock-picking gods.

When someone calls the market right several times in a row, screenshots of their gains start going viral and their following grows. Every word they say gradually shifts from personal opinion to market gospel.

At first, people followed her because she made money.

Later, they believed her because she had made money before.

In the end, some even thought that her losses were just a trial before her next rise to glory.

The height of adoration is also when risk is most completely ignored.

#USStocks

#XAU
Oh no, oh no‼️Emergency‼️

Stay away from boomer assets! $XAU Is gold going to move sideways for decades?

Gold's recent price action looks very unusual!

U.S. tech stocks were sold off, the Nasdaq plunged 2.6%, and money poured into U.S. Treasuries.

The 10-year Treasury yield plunged about 19 basis points in a single day, falling to around 4.95%.

Based on past patterns, falling Treasury yields, lower real interest rates, and rising tensions in the Middle East should all have boosted gold.

But what happened? Treasuries rallied, while $XAU gold briefly fell below $4,000.

Gold's biggest drawback is that it doesn't generate cash flow!

Nvidia can make money from AI, and Microsoft can make money from cloud computing. $BTC At least the adoption of the global crypto-finance network can serve as a long-term metric to watch.

What about gold?
Its long-term returns depend heavily on whether the next buyer is willing to pay a higher price.

And don't forget: historically, gold has made investors wait a very long time.

After gold surged to a record high in 1980, it didn't break above that level again until 2008, measured in nominal U.S. dollars.

A full 28 years!!🤮

So if U.S. real interest rates keep falling in the future, but gold still can't resume its upward trend, we'll have to reassess the logic behind gold's valuation.

I wouldn't dare claim that gold will move sideways for decades, but I will say that people who firmly believe gold will rise forever today aren't thinking much differently from those who were certain that house prices would rise forever when they were at their peak.

What do you think—is this just a shakeout for gold, or the beginning of a long period of valuation reassessment?
#BTC

#股票财报季
Broken? It’s broken!!!

$WDCB delivered a nearly perfect earnings report yesterday, yet Wall Street kept selling.

Revenue grew 55%.

Earnings per share far exceeded expectations.

Free cash flow was $1.38 billion.

Next-quarter guidance was raised again.

So what happened?

The stock fell about 6% during regular trading and continued to slide after hours.

I think there’s a question here that every AI investor should consider:

If a company’s results keep getting better while its stock keeps getting worse, is the market getting it wrong, or are we only seeing the most prosperous part of the cycle?#wdc

#股票财报季
10.23 Quick market note: The S&P 500 took a beating, but two-thirds of its constituents rose.

The reason lies in the weighting. The S&P 500 is weighted by float-adjusted market capitalization, so declines among a handful of giants can outweigh gains across a large number of companies. Even when you buy assets both called “U.S. stocks,” different weightings can mean a completely different market experience.

Earnings reports also show another side: Of the 111 S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results, about 83% posted earnings above analysts’ expectations.

AI-heavyweight stocks are undergoing a sharp repricing, and the divergence within the market is worth examining. The number of stocks rising versus falling on a single day does not prove that money has already shifted to other sectors on a large scale, let alone confirm that a three-month rotation is underway.

This year, the key things to watch are whether the equal-weight S&P ETF RSP can continue to outperform SPY, and whether earnings expectations for non-tech sectors can hold up.

If the equal-weight index also keeps weakening and most sectors fall together, be prepared to manage position risk in case the risk is spreading from AI-heavyweight stocks to the broader market. I’ll keep monitoring this and post updates here!
#MarketBreadth #SP500

@Shock牙医 If Binance Square were choosing the top 100 most absurd traders instead of the top 100 traders, I’d definitely vote for @Shock牙医 .

From the long posts after his early liquidations, to later showing off fake liquor, and now the recent $USTC red packet!

I suddenly realized this guy is becoming more and more like an entertainment blogger.

When other people get liquidated, their followers unfollow them. When he gets liquidated, his followers wait for the long post.

One night of drinking can entertain the whole Square for days.

The funniest thing is, he doesn’t even seem to try to be funny. That earnest, aggrieved, never-say-die attitude—with just a hint of goofy charm—is entertaining all on its own.

Come to think of it, this fits human nature online pretty well. People say they like watching big shots make money, but in reality, they also love watching an ordinary person who’s relatable, makes mistakes, gets rattled, and keeps trying to make a comeback—because most people are ordinary themselves!

The dentist’s most promising asset may no longer be his trading account. The trading market rewards people who get the direction right, while the attention economy often rewards people who make others feel something.

Someone can get liquidated over and over in the futures market, yet keep growing bigger in the attention market.

Of course, having an audience doesn’t mean you’re good at trading. And when copy trading involves real money, those are two separate things.

But you have to admit, the dentist has carved out a pretty distinctive path. #牙医

🚨 Something very strange is happening

$SPYB The S&P 500 is stuck in a trading range near its all-time high.

Now look at what’s happening beneath the surface:

→ U.S. stock market: $81.6 trillion
→ U.S. GDP: $32.6 trillion

Wall Street is worth 2.5 times the economy it depends on.

So ask yourself:

How can stocks keep making people richer while the people who support them are getting poorer?

This is the part most people overlook.

The S&P 500 is weighted by market capitalization.

The bigger the company, the bigger its share.

So every dollar flowing into passive index funds mostly goes to the giants that already dominate the market.

The biggest stocks get the most money every month. Every single month.

Meanwhile, on Main Street:

→ Credit card debt: a record $1.18 trillion
→ Seriously delinquent debt: 10.9%, the highest level in 13 years
→ Subprime auto loan defaults: 7.8%, worse than in 2008
→ Savings rate: down to 3.4%
→ Banks: more than $510 billion in unrealized losses
→ Continuing jobless claims: still rising
→ Full-time jobs: quietly turning into gig work

And the index? Still hovering near its all-time high.

Now do the math:
→ Top 10 companies: about $30 trillion
→ A 10% drop in just those 10: about $3 trillion wiped out
→ That’s nearly 9% of the entire U.S. economy

The other 490 stocks wouldn’t even have to budge.

Let that sink in.

It doesn’t take 500 stocks to crash this market.

It only takes 10.

That’s the risk nobody is pricing in.

I’ve been trading these markets for years.

I’ll keep watching and posting timely updates here! Follow to stay updated!

$BTC is broken!!! Bitcoin may not have reached its true bottom yet. Even stranger, the true bottoms in the past three Bitcoin bear markets all came after the U.S. midterm elections.

I looked through the historical data and noticed a pattern worth paying attention to.

In 2014, BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm elections.

In 2018, BTC bottomed 39 days after the elections.

In 2022, BTC bottomed 13 days after the elections.

Now let's look at how BTC performed in the year after each election.

In 2014, BTC rose about 25%.

In 2018, BTC rose about 45%.

In 2022, BTC rose about 92%.

This year's U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3. If we use the longest historical window of 71 days, that brings us to January 13, 2027.

What will be more worth watching from here is Fed liquidity, market leverage, and changes in the holdings of long-term investors.

History won't hand you money according to a calendar. But sometimes, the biggest opportunities appear just when most people no longer believe in history.

Could January 2027 be another opportunity like that? #MidtermElections

10.22: A light piece of news:
I increasingly feel that the most valuable thing in the future may be the right to keep others from knowing how much money you have.

Many people have long mocked privacy coins, calling them money-laundering tools with no future.

But here’s a question: would you want everyone in the world to know your bank balance, every transfer you make, and how much money you receive each day?

Probably not. Yet on public blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum, if someone links a wallet address to your real identity, they may be able to track your assets and transaction history.

An industry that claims to protect people’s financial freedom has somehow exposed their wealth for the whole world to watch.

That’s absurd in itself.

Now look at the data:

$XMR currently has a market cap of about $11.6 billion.

$ZEC currently has a market cap of about $21.7 billion.

Monero hides both parties to a transaction and the amount by default. It still sees about 27,000 on-chain transactions a day.

Zcash is even more interesting: about 4.96 million ZEC have entered its privacy pool, or roughly 29% of the circulating supply.

That at least shows that people really are using privacy features.

Here’s a bold prediction:

Over the next few years, privacy may become one of the key narratives driving a repricing of the crypto industry.

As AI gets better at analyzing data and on-chain tracking becomes more precise, the issue of personal assets being transparent will only become more pronounced.

Of course, XMR and ZEC are no longer obscure, low-priced coins. ZEC’s gains in particular have been astonishing. There are also risks involving regulation, exchange delistings, and the security of privacy protocols.

So I’d only consider putting a small portion of my portfolio into them as a risk position, buying a little at a time.
One last thing:
Poor people worry that others won’t know they have money; rich people worry that others will know exactly how much they have.

Bitcoin gave people, for the first time, real control over their own assets.

But in the next stage, more and more people may start asking: why should the whole world be able to watch my assets?

#XMR #zec

#中国寻求没收61800枚比特币
Chinese people were defrauded of 40 billion yuan, and British police seized 60,000 bitcoins. The most surreal part is that the fraudster went to prison, while the money could end up making the British government a fortune.

There’s a new development in the Qian Zhimin case: prosecutors in Tianjin have applied to seize 61,896 BTC, worth around $5 billion.

Where did these coins come from?

From 2014 to 2017, Qian Zhimin ran a fraudulent investment scheme in China, illegally raising more than 40 billion yuan. She then converted some of the funds into bitcoin and eventually fled to the UK.

British police seized the bitcoins in question in 2018.

Now things get interesting.

The Chinese victims want to recover their losses, Chinese prosecutors have applied to seize the assets, and the British government is also handling these bitcoins through legal proceedings.

More subtly, a British court has just ruled that whether the victims own these BTC must be determined under Chinese law.

Note: the court has only ruled on which law applies. It has not decided who will ultimately get the coins, let alone who should get any increase in their value.

A rather absurd question suddenly occurred to me:

Suppose the people who were defrauded only get their original investment back, while someone else walks away with the gains from bitcoin’s huge surge in value over the years.

Then who is the biggest winner in this fraud case?

The fraudster goes to prison, the victims wait in anguish, and in the end someone could unexpectedly gain billions of dollars in asset appreciation just by holding onto stolen funds.

That’s the most troubling part of this whole story.

As for $BTC , I don’t think this news is inherently bearish.

More than 60,000 BTC have been under British police control for years. They aren’t a sudden increase in supply. What will really affect the market is who eventually holds them, when they’re dealt with, and whether they’re sold.

And behind all this lies a question more profound than the price of bitcoin:

Bitcoin is said to have no borders, but once law enforcement gets hold of the private keys, ownership is still determined by national law.

Decentralization can let assets cross borders, but it can’t automatically resolve ownership disputes in the real world.

Perhaps the most ironic thing is this:

Bitcoin solved the problem of transferring money without going through a bank, but it didn’t solve the problem of who ultimately gets to decide who owns the money.
#QianZhiminCase

Trump is bound to lose the midterm elections, and $BTC may be in for a brutal storm!

Trump’s popularity has already collapsed.

Even MAGA supporters think he’s a traitor.

On October 17, Trump faced an extremely humiliating scene at a campaign rally in traditionally “red” Kansas: his once most loyal, blue-collar supporters in the audience actually shouted at him, “Traitor! You’re a fucking traitor!” and raised their middle fingers without holding back.

This scene confirms that Trump’s die-hard, working-class base is visibly collapsing.

Even Musk’s efforts to buy support and votes failed to reverse Trump’s decline. #特朗普拟阐述打击海外加密诈骗

Western medicine really packs a punch!

#美国国债

The U.S. Treasury received $35.48 billion in bids for its $13 billion 20-year Treasury bond offering. Even so, the final winning yield was as high as 5.469%—the highest since Treasury bonds of this maturity were reintroduced in 2020.

This was certainly not a “buyers’ strike.” The bid-to-cover ratio rose from 2.57 in September to 2.73. Indirect bidders’ share of the allocation increased from 52.5% to 58.2%, while primary dealers’ share fell from 16.9% to 10.3%. Demand improved, but so did the “price” (in the form of higher yields) required to meet it.

For AI stocks, $BTC , and any other assets betting on “prosperity in the distant future,” a 5.469% yield is a formidable and costly competitor.

Long-term Treasuries still carry significant duration risk, but they offer investors substantial nominal returns without requiring them to predict chip demand, token adoption, or data center profit margins.

Only real growth can clear this hurdle; enthusiasm alone is nowhere near enough.

The U.S. Treasury successfully sold the entire bond offering, with the final yield set at 5.469%.
#股票市场 #Bitcoin