Bluechip
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I’ve been in crypto for more than 7 years...
Here’s 12 brutal mistakes I made (so you don’t have to))
Lesson 1: Chasing pumps is a tax on impatience
Every time I rushed into a coin just because it was pumping, I ended up losing.
You’re not early.
You’re someone else's exit.
Lesson 2: Most coins die quietly
Most tokens don’t crash — they just slowly fade away.
No big news. Just less trading, fewer updates... until they’re worthless.
Lesson 3: Stories beat tech
I used to back projects with amazing tech.
The market backed the ones with the best story.
The best product doesn’t always win — the best narrative usually does.
Lesson 4: Liquidity is key
If you can't sell your token easily, it doesn’t matter how high it goes.
It might show a 10x gain, but if you can’t cash out, it’s worthless.
Liquidity = freedom.
Lesson 5: Most people quit too soon
Crypto messes with your emotions.
People buy the top, panic sell at the bottom, and then watch the market recover without them.
If you stick around, you give yourself a real chance to win.
Lesson 6: Take security seriously
- I’ve been SIM-swapped.
- I’ve been phished.
- I’ve lost wallets.
Lesson 7: Don’t trade everything
Sometimes, the best move is to do nothing.
Holding strong projects beats chasing every pump.
Traders make the exchanges rich. Patient holders build wealth.
Lesson 8: Regulation is coming
Governments move slow — but when they act, they hit hard.
Lots of “freedom tokens” I used to hold are now banned or delisted.
Plan for the future — not just for hype.
Lesson 9: Communities are everything
A good dev team is great.
But a passionate community? That’s what makes projects last.
I learned to never underestimate the power of memes and culture.
Lesson 10: 100x opportunities don’t last long
By the time everyone’s talking about a coin — it’s too late.
Big gains come from spotting things early, then holding through the noise.
There are no shortcuts.
Lesson 11: Bear markets are where winners are made
The best time to build and learn is when nobody else is paying attention.
That’s when I made my best moves.
If you're emotional, you’ll get used as someone else's exit.
Lesson 12: Don’t risk everything
I’ve seen people lose everything on one bad trade.
No matter how sure something seems — don’t bet the house.
Play the long game with money you can afford to wait on.
7 years.
Countless mistakes.
Hard lessons.
If even one of these helps you avoid a costly mistake, then it was worth sharing.
Follow for more real talk — no hype, just lessons.
Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA!
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
Lesson 1: Chasing pumps is a tax on impatience
Every time I rushed into a coin just because it was pumping, I ended up losing.
You’re not early.
You’re someone else's exit.
Lesson 2: Most coins die quietly
Most tokens don’t crash — they just slowly fade away.
No big news. Just less trading, fewer updates... until they’re worthless.
Lesson 3: Stories beat tech
I used to back projects with amazing tech.
The market backed the ones with the best story.
The best product doesn’t always win — the best narrative usually does.
Lesson 4: Liquidity is key
If you can't sell your token easily, it doesn’t matter how high it goes.
It might show a 10x gain, but if you can’t cash out, it’s worthless.
Liquidity = freedom.
Lesson 5: Most people quit too soon
Crypto messes with your emotions.
People buy the top, panic sell at the bottom, and then watch the market recover without them.
If you stick around, you give yourself a real chance to win.
Lesson 6: Take security seriously
- I’ve been SIM-swapped.
- I’ve been phished.
- I’ve lost wallets.
Lesson 7: Don’t trade everything
Sometimes, the best move is to do nothing.
Holding strong projects beats chasing every pump.
Traders make the exchanges rich. Patient holders build wealth.
Lesson 8: Regulation is coming
Governments move slow — but when they act, they hit hard.
Lots of “freedom tokens” I used to hold are now banned or delisted.
Plan for the future — not just for hype.
Lesson 9: Communities are everything
A good dev team is great.
But a passionate community? That’s what makes projects last.
I learned to never underestimate the power of memes and culture.
Lesson 10: 100x opportunities don’t last long
By the time everyone’s talking about a coin — it’s too late.
Big gains come from spotting things early, then holding through the noise.
There are no shortcuts.
Lesson 11: Bear markets are where winners are made
The best time to build and learn is when nobody else is paying attention.
That’s when I made my best moves.
If you're emotional, you’ll get used as someone else's exit.
Lesson 12: Don’t risk everything
I’ve seen people lose everything on one bad trade.
No matter how sure something seems — don’t bet the house.
Play the long game with money you can afford to wait on.
7 years.
Countless mistakes.
Hard lessons.
If even one of these helps you avoid a costly mistake, then it was worth sharing.
Follow for more real talk — no hype, just lessons.
Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA!
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
PINNED
How Market Cap Works?
Many believe the market needs trillions to get the altseason.
But $SOL , $ONDO, $WIF , $MKR or any of your low-cap gems don't need new tons of millions to pump.
Think a $10 coin at $10M market cap needs another $10M to hit $20?
Wrong!
Here's the secret
I often hear from major traders that the growth of certain altcoins is impossible due to their high market cap.
They often say, "It takes $N billion for the price to grow N times" about large assets like Solana.
These opinions are incorrect, and I'll explain why ⇩
But first, let's clarify some concepts:
Market capitalization is a metric used to estimate the total market value of a cryptocurrency asset.
It is determined by two components:
➜ Asset's price
➜ Its supply
Price is the point where the demand and supply curves intersect.
Therefore, it is determined by both demand and supply.
How most people think, even those with years of market experience:
● Example:
$STRK at $1 with a 1B Supply = $1B Market Cap.
"To double the price, you would need $1B in investments."
This seems like a simple logic puzzle, but reality introduces a crucial factor: liquidity.
Liquidity in cryptocurrencies refers to the ability to quickly exchange a cryptocurrency at its current market price without a significant loss in value.
Those involved in memecoins often encounter this issue: a large market cap but zero liquidity.
For trading tokens on exchanges, sufficient liquidity is essential. You can't sell more tokens than the available liquidity permits.
Imagine our $STRK for $1 is listed only on 1inch, with $100M available liquidity in the $STRK - $USDC pool.
We have:
- Price: $1
- Market Cap: $1B
- Liquidity in pair: $100M
➜ Based on the price definition, buying $50M worth of $STRK will inevitably double the token price, without needing to inject $1B.
The market cap will be set at $2 billion, with only $50 million in infusions.
Big players understand these mechanisms and use them in their manipulations, as I explained in my recent thread.
Memcoin creators often use this strategy.
Typically, most memcoins are listed on one or two decentralized exchanges with limited liquidity pools.
This setup allows for significant price manipulation, creating a FOMO among investors.
You don't always need multi-billion dollar investments to change the market cap or increase a token's price.
Limited liquidity combined with high demand can drive prices up due to basic economic principles. Keep this in mind during your research.
I hope you've found this article helpful.
Follow me @Bluechip for more.
Like/Share if you can
#BluechipInsights
But $SOL , $ONDO, $WIF , $MKR or any of your low-cap gems don't need new tons of millions to pump.
Think a $10 coin at $10M market cap needs another $10M to hit $20?
Wrong!
Here's the secret
I often hear from major traders that the growth of certain altcoins is impossible due to their high market cap.
They often say, "It takes $N billion for the price to grow N times" about large assets like Solana.
These opinions are incorrect, and I'll explain why ⇩
But first, let's clarify some concepts:
Market capitalization is a metric used to estimate the total market value of a cryptocurrency asset.
It is determined by two components:
➜ Asset's price
➜ Its supply
Price is the point where the demand and supply curves intersect.
Therefore, it is determined by both demand and supply.
How most people think, even those with years of market experience:
● Example:
$STRK at $1 with a 1B Supply = $1B Market Cap.
"To double the price, you would need $1B in investments."
This seems like a simple logic puzzle, but reality introduces a crucial factor: liquidity.
Liquidity in cryptocurrencies refers to the ability to quickly exchange a cryptocurrency at its current market price without a significant loss in value.
Those involved in memecoins often encounter this issue: a large market cap but zero liquidity.
For trading tokens on exchanges, sufficient liquidity is essential. You can't sell more tokens than the available liquidity permits.
Imagine our $STRK for $1 is listed only on 1inch, with $100M available liquidity in the $STRK - $USDC pool.
We have:
- Price: $1
- Market Cap: $1B
- Liquidity in pair: $100M
➜ Based on the price definition, buying $50M worth of $STRK will inevitably double the token price, without needing to inject $1B.
The market cap will be set at $2 billion, with only $50 million in infusions.
Big players understand these mechanisms and use them in their manipulations, as I explained in my recent thread.
Memcoin creators often use this strategy.
Typically, most memcoins are listed on one or two decentralized exchanges with limited liquidity pools.
This setup allows for significant price manipulation, creating a FOMO among investors.
You don't always need multi-billion dollar investments to change the market cap or increase a token's price.
Limited liquidity combined with high demand can drive prices up due to basic economic principles. Keep this in mind during your research.
I hope you've found this article helpful.
Follow me @Bluechip for more.
Like/Share if you can
#BluechipInsights
Back at it again with my Monday Pivots.
18 out of 20 times, you could’ve shorted the high and caught at least a 2% drop from the top.
Same shit, different week. $BTC
18 out of 20 times, you could’ve shorted the high and caught at least a 2% drop from the top.
Same shit, different week. $BTC
$BTC
If you shift from the LTF to the HTF, you’ll absolutely see better results.
The only problem is that a lot of people want to be "day traders".
That doesn’t automatically make it the most profitable system.
If you shift from the LTF to the HTF, you’ll absolutely see better results.
The only problem is that a lot of people want to be "day traders".
That doesn’t automatically make it the most profitable system.
$BTC
You can really tell how dead the crypto scene is right now, nobody’s around and nobody’s posting.
It’s the same cycle every time, but this one feels even rougher, especially since the dynamics with alts shifted drastically.
You can really tell how dead the crypto scene is right now, nobody’s around and nobody’s posting.
It’s the same cycle every time, but this one feels even rougher, especially since the dynamics with alts shifted drastically.
$BTC
When you zoom out on the weekly TF, the PA gets a lot clearer.
Every candle tells a story. Every sweep. Every move.
Right now, 65K is our current higher low, simply because we haven’t broken below it yet. We had our first test of the 71K resistance, and now a new weekly candle has opened.
Since 65K held, the focus shifts to the 68.2K–67.3K range. This area was a daily S/R level that was flipped after the current low was established. If price holds this zone, the path back above 71.5K becomes very likely.
On the other hand, losing this level wouldn’t be ideal. It would open the door for 60K to eventually get swept... although it feels a bit premature for that move just yet.
There’s probably more liquidity to grab on the upside first.
Just my two cents.
When you zoom out on the weekly TF, the PA gets a lot clearer.
Every candle tells a story. Every sweep. Every move.
Right now, 65K is our current higher low, simply because we haven’t broken below it yet. We had our first test of the 71K resistance, and now a new weekly candle has opened.
Since 65K held, the focus shifts to the 68.2K–67.3K range. This area was a daily S/R level that was flipped after the current low was established. If price holds this zone, the path back above 71.5K becomes very likely.
On the other hand, losing this level wouldn’t be ideal. It would open the door for 60K to eventually get swept... although it feels a bit premature for that move just yet.
There’s probably more liquidity to grab on the upside first.
Just my two cents.
If $BTC can hold 67-68K, we will sweep 71.5K next week.
However, if we are unable to hold 67-68K… it opens the doors to 65K & sub 60K.
However, if we are unable to hold 67-68K… it opens the doors to 65K & sub 60K.
Bluechip
·
--
$BTC – Levels I’m Watching Going Into Next Week
BTC is currently testing the weekly open.
If price continues to hold below the weekly open, the CME gap below (around the previous daily open) becomes the primary LTF objective.
One of my main plans from $66K was for price to sweep the external range highs, and that’s exactly the scenario Im gravitating towards. This remains my key area of interest for shorts.
If the weekly open is flipped into support, I expect a sweep of $71.5K.
From there, I’ll be watching for a deviation toward $73.8K (previous high of the 6-month range).
If momentum extends, there’s room for potential upside into $75K, where I may consider additional short adds.
I’ll be using fractionalized entries for this short plan.
That said, I’m not sizing heavily on shorts right now. Although the short term trend remains bearish and we’re technically still in a bear market, the HTF RR currently favors upside liquidity before a larger move down.
Once sufficient short liquidity is swept, I expect a move back toward $60K. This may take several weeks, possibly a month to develop.
Hope this helps you understand my plans.
This post is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and high risk. Do your own research.
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
BTC is currently testing the weekly open.
If price continues to hold below the weekly open, the CME gap below (around the previous daily open) becomes the primary LTF objective.
One of my main plans from $66K was for price to sweep the external range highs, and that’s exactly the scenario Im gravitating towards. This remains my key area of interest for shorts.
If the weekly open is flipped into support, I expect a sweep of $71.5K.
From there, I’ll be watching for a deviation toward $73.8K (previous high of the 6-month range).
If momentum extends, there’s room for potential upside into $75K, where I may consider additional short adds.
I’ll be using fractionalized entries for this short plan.
That said, I’m not sizing heavily on shorts right now. Although the short term trend remains bearish and we’re technically still in a bear market, the HTF RR currently favors upside liquidity before a larger move down.
Once sufficient short liquidity is swept, I expect a move back toward $60K. This may take several weeks, possibly a month to develop.
Hope this helps you understand my plans.
This post is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and high risk. Do your own research.
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
Partly yes
2021–2022: liquidity tightened → higher real yields → risk assets compressed.
$BTC fell -77% ( ~$69K → ~$16K ).
2023–2026: liquidity only modestly positive (M2 ~+3–4% YoY) → no flood of capital.
Result: recovery, not mania.
So it wasn’t “no growth.”
It was a tighter liquidity regime + leverage reset.
The power law is still intact. R^2~96%
2021–2022: liquidity tightened → higher real yields → risk assets compressed.
$BTC fell -77% ( ~$69K → ~$16K ).
2023–2026: liquidity only modestly positive (M2 ~+3–4% YoY) → no flood of capital.
Result: recovery, not mania.
So it wasn’t “no growth.”
It was a tighter liquidity regime + leverage reset.
The power law is still intact. R^2~96%
Blue? Does this explain why bitcoin is flat over the past 5 years?
Liquidity Leads. $BTC Amplifies.
US M2 YoY is expansionary: +3.9%
Best M2→BTC lead in this spec: +190d (r=0.288)
BTC spot vs power-law trend value: $68,956 vs $123,554 = -44.2% (discount)
Mean-reversion half-life, 133 days: 07/2026 @ ~$112K
What BTC is most linked to right now (30D):
S&P 500: r=+0.677
HYG credit: r=+0.674
NASDAQ: r=+0.665
IGV software: r=+0.622
(all statistically significant)
Lead-lag confirmation (Granger):
IGV → BTC: 2d (p=0.0035)
HYG → BTC: 2d (p=0.0055)
NASDAQ → BTC: 4d (p=0.0128)
S&P 500 → BTC: 1d (p=0.0178)
Most important number now:
-44.2% (BTC vs long-run trend, R^2~96%)
Short-term = volatile.
Bias: bullish with positive liquidity
US M2 YoY is expansionary: +3.9%
Best M2→BTC lead in this spec: +190d (r=0.288)
BTC spot vs power-law trend value: $68,956 vs $123,554 = -44.2% (discount)
Mean-reversion half-life, 133 days: 07/2026 @ ~$112K
What BTC is most linked to right now (30D):
S&P 500: r=+0.677
HYG credit: r=+0.674
NASDAQ: r=+0.665
IGV software: r=+0.622
(all statistically significant)
Lead-lag confirmation (Granger):
IGV → BTC: 2d (p=0.0035)
HYG → BTC: 2d (p=0.0055)
NASDAQ → BTC: 4d (p=0.0128)
S&P 500 → BTC: 1d (p=0.0178)
Most important number now:
-44.2% (BTC vs long-run trend, R^2~96%)
Short-term = volatile.
Bias: bullish with positive liquidity
Why does a true Bitcoin bottom take time to form? 🤔
~9.31M $BTC ≈46% of circulating supply is sitting above the current price.
A large share of holders are waiting to sell at breakeven or a small profit.
That overhead supply must be absorbed and redistributed to stronger hands before a durable bottom can emerge.
~9.31M $BTC ≈46% of circulating supply is sitting above the current price.
A large share of holders are waiting to sell at breakeven or a small profit.
That overhead supply must be absorbed and redistributed to stronger hands before a durable bottom can emerge.
$BTC
It’s crucial to pay attention to monthly opens.
Over the past 16 months, 12 out of 16 months rallied starting from the 1st, a 75% hit rate.
So how can you anticipate whether price will pump or dump at the beginning of a new month?
Observe:
- The overall trend (Narrative)
- Market structure (PA into the pivot)
- Cycle positioning
- CRT (Candle Range Theory) + Liquidity
It’s crucial to pay attention to monthly opens.
Over the past 16 months, 12 out of 16 months rallied starting from the 1st, a 75% hit rate.
So how can you anticipate whether price will pump or dump at the beginning of a new month?
Observe:
- The overall trend (Narrative)
- Market structure (PA into the pivot)
- Cycle positioning
- CRT (Candle Range Theory) + Liquidity
$BTC
Single most important number: +$10M Net Dealer Gamma Exposure at spot.
Why:
+$10M is effectively zero gamma.
Zero gamma = no dealer shock absorber.
No absorber = flows set direction, volatility extends faster.
Numbers:
Spot: $69,010
Gamma Flip: $69,660–$70,651
Max Gamma / Call Wall: $70,000 (+1.4%)
Put Wall: $65,000 (-5.8%)
Amplification: 1.02x
Squeeze Score: 61% (elevated)
Gamma expiring Feb 20: 14.4% (in 5 days)
Decision tree:
Above $69.6K and accepted: path opens to $70K test.
Rejection at $70K + loss of flip: downside can accelerate.
When gamma is near zero, price can move farther and faster than expected.
Single most important number: +$10M Net Dealer Gamma Exposure at spot.
Why:
+$10M is effectively zero gamma.
Zero gamma = no dealer shock absorber.
No absorber = flows set direction, volatility extends faster.
Numbers:
Spot: $69,010
Gamma Flip: $69,660–$70,651
Max Gamma / Call Wall: $70,000 (+1.4%)
Put Wall: $65,000 (-5.8%)
Amplification: 1.02x
Squeeze Score: 61% (elevated)
Gamma expiring Feb 20: 14.4% (in 5 days)
Decision tree:
Above $69.6K and accepted: path opens to $70K test.
Rejection at $70K + loss of flip: downside can accelerate.
When gamma is near zero, price can move farther and faster than expected.
$BTC
CME futures not even open and we already revisited the CME close. Didn’t take long at all.
This is usually the case when we form a gap over the weekend.
CME futures not even open and we already revisited the CME close. Didn’t take long at all.
This is usually the case when we form a gap over the weekend.
Bluechip
·
--
$BTC
Perfect retest of the weekly open. we created a 1%+ gap up.
As always, CME Gaps which form over the weekend have a statistically high chance of being filled.
In this case (revisiting 68.8K is likely)
Perfect retest of the weekly open. we created a 1%+ gap up.
As always, CME Gaps which form over the weekend have a statistically high chance of being filled.
In this case (revisiting 68.8K is likely)
Price Leads Hash rate by ~1 Month
Most people treat hashrate as the cause.
The data says it’s mostly the effect.
Price sets miner revenue.
Revenue drives rig economics.
Rig economics drive deployment/shutdown decisions.
Hash rate adjusts with a lag.
Difficulty adjusts last.
Most important number:
-12.8% hashrate gap
(Actual: 901M TH/s vs price-implied: 1,033M TH/s)
What that means:
This is not “price running ahead of infrastructure.”
Price dropped sharply, and hashrate is still absorbing that shock through the lag structure.
Key numbers:
• Price → HR lead: ~30–34 days (cross-corr peak r≈0.196)
• Best regression lag: 34d
• Fit: R² 0.723 (lagged) vs 0.647 (contemporaneous), +11.7%
• Elasticity: +1% BTC price → +0.61% HR after ~34d
Granger: Price Granger-predicts HR at lags 2 and 5; HR does not robustly Granger-predict price
Core insight:
Actual hashrate is falling faster than the lagged-price model would imply.
Bottom line:
Price is the signal.
Hash rate is delayed confirmation.
First-principles view:
Bitcoin mining is a delayed, frictional feedback system: price shocks first, hashrate responds with inertia, and difficulty stabilizes block timing afterward.
Most people treat hashrate as the cause.
The data says it’s mostly the effect.
Price sets miner revenue.
Revenue drives rig economics.
Rig economics drive deployment/shutdown decisions.
Hash rate adjusts with a lag.
Difficulty adjusts last.
Most important number:
-12.8% hashrate gap
(Actual: 901M TH/s vs price-implied: 1,033M TH/s)
What that means:
This is not “price running ahead of infrastructure.”
Price dropped sharply, and hashrate is still absorbing that shock through the lag structure.
Key numbers:
• Price → HR lead: ~30–34 days (cross-corr peak r≈0.196)
• Best regression lag: 34d
• Fit: R² 0.723 (lagged) vs 0.647 (contemporaneous), +11.7%
• Elasticity: +1% BTC price → +0.61% HR after ~34d
Granger: Price Granger-predicts HR at lags 2 and 5; HR does not robustly Granger-predict price
Core insight:
Actual hashrate is falling faster than the lagged-price model would imply.
Bottom line:
Price is the signal.
Hash rate is delayed confirmation.
First-principles view:
Bitcoin mining is a delayed, frictional feedback system: price shocks first, hashrate responds with inertia, and difficulty stabilizes block timing afterward.
Capitulation or Opportunity?
• Bitcoin is still down -50% from its all-time high.
• Deeper drawdowns (-70% to -80%) are possible.
But on-chain + structural data suggest we should start thinking about where a bottom could form.
1. Spot ETF flows are driving the drawdown
• Spot BTC ETF drawdown from ATH: -$8.2B
• Largest ETF drawdown on record.
Price is now 17% below the average buying price of ETF holders (~$79K).
Structural pressure, not random selling.
2. Leverage is getting flushed
• Open Interest dropped from $45.5B → $21.7B
• Especially over the last 7 days: a -27% decline
Speculative excess is unwinding.
This is how bottoms start to build.
3. Short-Term Holders are deeply underwater
• STH Realized Price: $92,458
• STH MVRV: 0.72
That’s 28% below ATH realized value.
Lowest STH MVRV since July 2022.
Yes, it can go lower.
But historically, this is where risk/reward improves significantly.
4. Technicals align with on-chain
Price is testing:
• Previous ATH
• Top of prior range
• Major support cluster
Similar structures marked cycle bottoms in prior phases.
Technical is also on a very important support cluster.
Previous ATH, Top of earlier range.
Similar bottom happend in previous cycle
5. But bottoms are a process, not an event
If we mirror prior cycles from April 19, 2024:
• 2012 pattern (777 days) → June 4, 2026
• 2016 pattern (889 days) → September 24, 2026
• 2020 pattern (925 days) → October 30, 2026
Broad window: June – December 2026
Historical sweet spot: September – November 2026
6. Sentiment is the final piece
• When engagement is dead
• When timelines are quiet
• When nobody cares
That’s usually when opportunity is highest.
You still have runway before the historical window.
Stay sharp.
This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and high risk. Do your own research.
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
• Deeper drawdowns (-70% to -80%) are possible.
But on-chain + structural data suggest we should start thinking about where a bottom could form.
1. Spot ETF flows are driving the drawdown
• Spot BTC ETF drawdown from ATH: -$8.2B
• Largest ETF drawdown on record.
Price is now 17% below the average buying price of ETF holders (~$79K).
Structural pressure, not random selling.
2. Leverage is getting flushed
• Open Interest dropped from $45.5B → $21.7B
• Especially over the last 7 days: a -27% decline
Speculative excess is unwinding.
This is how bottoms start to build.
3. Short-Term Holders are deeply underwater
• STH Realized Price: $92,458
• STH MVRV: 0.72
That’s 28% below ATH realized value.
Lowest STH MVRV since July 2022.
Yes, it can go lower.
But historically, this is where risk/reward improves significantly.
4. Technicals align with on-chain
Price is testing:
• Previous ATH
• Top of prior range
• Major support cluster
Similar structures marked cycle bottoms in prior phases.
Technical is also on a very important support cluster.
Previous ATH, Top of earlier range.
Similar bottom happend in previous cycle
5. But bottoms are a process, not an event
If we mirror prior cycles from April 19, 2024:
• 2012 pattern (777 days) → June 4, 2026
• 2016 pattern (889 days) → September 24, 2026
• 2020 pattern (925 days) → October 30, 2026
Broad window: June – December 2026
Historical sweet spot: September – November 2026
6. Sentiment is the final piece
• When engagement is dead
• When timelines are quiet
• When nobody cares
That’s usually when opportunity is highest.
You still have runway before the historical window.
Stay sharp.
This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and high risk. Do your own research.
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
$BTC
The Time Edge: $70K→ $235K (2028) → $2M Scenario (2036)
Money rotates to the harder asset.
What do you think about it?
The Time Edge: $70K→ $235K (2028) → $2M Scenario (2036)
Money rotates to the harder asset.
What do you think about it?
$BTC – Levels I’m Watching Going Into Next Week
BTC is currently testing the weekly open.
If price continues to hold below the weekly open, the CME gap below (around the previous daily open) becomes the primary LTF objective.
One of my main plans from $66K was for price to sweep the external range highs, and that’s exactly the scenario Im gravitating towards. This remains my key area of interest for shorts.
If the weekly open is flipped into support, I expect a sweep of $71.5K.
From there, I’ll be watching for a deviation toward $73.8K (previous high of the 6-month range).
If momentum extends, there’s room for potential upside into $75K, where I may consider additional short adds.
I’ll be using fractionalized entries for this short plan.
That said, I’m not sizing heavily on shorts right now. Although the short term trend remains bearish and we’re technically still in a bear market, the HTF RR currently favors upside liquidity before a larger move down.
Once sufficient short liquidity is swept, I expect a move back toward $60K. This may take several weeks, possibly a month to develop.
Hope this helps you understand my plans.
This post is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and high risk. Do your own research.
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
BTC is currently testing the weekly open.
If price continues to hold below the weekly open, the CME gap below (around the previous daily open) becomes the primary LTF objective.
One of my main plans from $66K was for price to sweep the external range highs, and that’s exactly the scenario Im gravitating towards. This remains my key area of interest for shorts.
If the weekly open is flipped into support, I expect a sweep of $71.5K.
From there, I’ll be watching for a deviation toward $73.8K (previous high of the 6-month range).
If momentum extends, there’s room for potential upside into $75K, where I may consider additional short adds.
I’ll be using fractionalized entries for this short plan.
That said, I’m not sizing heavily on shorts right now. Although the short term trend remains bearish and we’re technically still in a bear market, the HTF RR currently favors upside liquidity before a larger move down.
Once sufficient short liquidity is swept, I expect a move back toward $60K. This may take several weeks, possibly a month to develop.
Hope this helps you understand my plans.
This post is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and high risk. Do your own research.
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
$BTC
$70K Trigger Level: the numbers that matter
Gamma flip price: $70,194 (+0.65%)
Spot: $69,733
Put wall: $65,000 (-6.8%)
Gamma Expiring:
20 Feb (13.8%): first meaningful reduction in pinning
27 Feb (26.5%): largest single unlock; this is the key date
27 Mar (22.2%): second large unlock that can extend volatility
$70K Trigger Level: the numbers that matter
Gamma flip price: $70,194 (+0.65%)
Spot: $69,733
Put wall: $65,000 (-6.8%)
Gamma Expiring:
20 Feb (13.8%): first meaningful reduction in pinning
27 Feb (26.5%): largest single unlock; this is the key date
27 Mar (22.2%): second large unlock that can extend volatility
Bluechip
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$BTC : the numbers that matter
Most important short term number
$65,445 (gamma flip)
Below $65,445
Dealer hedging can reinforce downside.
Above $65,445
Short-term structure improves.
Short-term levels
$70,000: call wall
$65,000: put wall (key support)
18.6%: gamma expires Feb 13 (pin-release)
Lead signal
IGV → BTC: p=0.003, 2-day lead (liquidity leads price)
Power Law:
~4.5 months: $110K
Best forward signal horizon: 18 month (~$200K)
Short term: gamma + liquidity (IGV/HYG)
Medium to long term: bullish
Most important short term number
$65,445 (gamma flip)
Below $65,445
Dealer hedging can reinforce downside.
Above $65,445
Short-term structure improves.
Short-term levels
$70,000: call wall
$65,000: put wall (key support)
18.6%: gamma expires Feb 13 (pin-release)
Lead signal
IGV → BTC: p=0.003, 2-day lead (liquidity leads price)
Power Law:
~4.5 months: $110K
Best forward signal horizon: 18 month (~$200K)
Short term: gamma + liquidity (IGV/HYG)
Medium to long term: bullish
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