TVBee
1.3k Posts
TVBee
Creator of the Year
原创之星
Open Trade
Frequent Trader
7.2 Years
225 Following
8.7K+ Followers
8.2K+ Liked
2 Badges
Posts
Portfolio
All
Quotes
Videos
Live
Verified
A signal worth paying close attention—what the New York Fed chair said: a September rate hike isn’t a sure thing!
┈➤A special role
In fact, the New York Fed chair is a rather special role.
The Federal Reserve is the U.S. central bank. It consists of two parts: one is the Federal Reserve Board, which is the Fed’s administrative authority; the other is 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, which handle local financial markets.
The Fed FOMC is responsible for setting monetary policy. It includes all 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board, as well as 5 regional Fed presidents.
Among them, the New York Fed chair is a permanent member of the FOMC, while the other four seats rotate among the 12 regional Fed presidents.
Moreover, the New York Fed chair serves as the vice chair of the FOMC. Therefore, the FOMC is essentially a representative figure of a regional Fed president, playing a role in checks and balances against the Federal Reserve Board.
As the administrative authority, the Federal Reserve Board is comparatively more macro-focused and political. By contrast, the regional Fed is more closely connected to financial markets—put simply, it’s more grounded.
So the New York Fed chair has a role in balancing politics and finance within the Fed.
┈➤A special backdrop
Right now, the Federal Reserve is in a relatively special short-term environment.
The former chair, Powell, remains in his post as a governor. Although he has been very low-key, his main motive for staying is because Trump nominated Waller to take office, and to prevent the Fed from being overly interfered with by Trump.
But Waller hasn’t been in office for long, and he hasn’t yet built enough stature and leadership.
So as the FOMC vice chair—a balancing force between politics and finance—at this time, the New York Fed chair’s attitude could carry significant influence.
┈➤A special risk
Although everyone is used to carving things into stone, the risk in the world today related to U.S. Treasuries is probably one that has almost never happened in history.
Rate hikes would increase Treasury yields and also raise financing costs, further escalating the risk.
So even though New York Fed Chair Williams has been summarized by the media as a “neutral” camp, his recent remarks have leaned somewhat dovish—he suggests that inflation has peaked.
Especially today, after his remarks, when the 30-year Treasury yield has surged. Brother Feng suspects he’s thinking about Treasury risk.
So buy 10 bucks’ worth—let’s just try it and don’t do a rate hike in September!
┈➤A special role
In fact, the New York Fed chair is a rather special role.
The Federal Reserve is the U.S. central bank. It consists of two parts: one is the Federal Reserve Board, which is the Fed’s administrative authority; the other is 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, which handle local financial markets.
The Fed FOMC is responsible for setting monetary policy. It includes all 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board, as well as 5 regional Fed presidents.
Among them, the New York Fed chair is a permanent member of the FOMC, while the other four seats rotate among the 12 regional Fed presidents.
Moreover, the New York Fed chair serves as the vice chair of the FOMC. Therefore, the FOMC is essentially a representative figure of a regional Fed president, playing a role in checks and balances against the Federal Reserve Board.
As the administrative authority, the Federal Reserve Board is comparatively more macro-focused and political. By contrast, the regional Fed is more closely connected to financial markets—put simply, it’s more grounded.
So the New York Fed chair has a role in balancing politics and finance within the Fed.
┈➤A special backdrop
Right now, the Federal Reserve is in a relatively special short-term environment.
The former chair, Powell, remains in his post as a governor. Although he has been very low-key, his main motive for staying is because Trump nominated Waller to take office, and to prevent the Fed from being overly interfered with by Trump.
But Waller hasn’t been in office for long, and he hasn’t yet built enough stature and leadership.
So as the FOMC vice chair—a balancing force between politics and finance—at this time, the New York Fed chair’s attitude could carry significant influence.
┈➤A special risk
Although everyone is used to carving things into stone, the risk in the world today related to U.S. Treasuries is probably one that has almost never happened in history.
Rate hikes would increase Treasury yields and also raise financing costs, further escalating the risk.
So even though New York Fed Chair Williams has been summarized by the media as a “neutral” camp, his recent remarks have leaned somewhat dovish—he suggests that inflation has peaked.
Especially today, after his remarks, when the 30-year Treasury yield has surged. Brother Feng suspects he’s thinking about Treasury risk.
So buy 10 bucks’ worth—let’s just try it and don’t do a rate hike in September!
TraderS 缺德道人
·
--
After last year’s “big pancake” [8w] drop, followed by a no-show that triggered a V-reversal, New York Fed Chair William(s) came out to release information. After the Fed in Washington canceled its prior forward guidance, it gradually evolved into using ticket-type distributions, with regional Fed chairs hinting as a substitute for guidance. The advantage of this approach is that responsibility is distributed—if something unexpected happens and shocks the market, no one can be held fully to blame. However, this flash news is basically rehashing; the source is an interview from last Friday.
Judging by his past track record, he is more like a “hint-first official,” and his remarks on Friday were essentially explaining why the latest FOMC decided to hold rates steady. He’s still using the classic framework of pushing responsibility or decision-making onto the data, thereby distancing the Fed from any responsibility if the market ends up in turmoil.
From Trump’s perspective, before the midterm election, ensuring the stock market stays in steady upward territory is definitely the best option. In theory, what he can do is to stop short on Iran and tariffs to reduce inflation. Given that he has recently extracted a lot of money from Japan and South Korea, it’s also plausible that temporarily quieting things on oil and taxes has economic footing. But in practice, tariffs are one of his political foundations, so he can’t back down. On the crude oil side, Iran won’t allow it. So ultimately, what it comes down to is using overseas “harvest” money to hand out benefits, to buy votes.
Judging by his past track record, he is more like a “hint-first official,” and his remarks on Friday were essentially explaining why the latest FOMC decided to hold rates steady. He’s still using the classic framework of pushing responsibility or decision-making onto the data, thereby distancing the Fed from any responsibility if the market ends up in turmoil.
From Trump’s perspective, before the midterm election, ensuring the stock market stays in steady upward territory is definitely the best option. In theory, what he can do is to stop short on Iran and tariffs to reduce inflation. Given that he has recently extracted a lot of money from Japan and South Korea, it’s also plausible that temporarily quieting things on oil and taxes has economic footing. But in practice, tariffs are one of his political foundations, so he can’t back down. On the crude oil side, Iran won’t allow it. So ultimately, what it comes down to is using overseas “harvest” money to hand out benefits, to buy votes.
Verified
A bit funny—the most standard “Carving a boat to search for a sword” in history. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is as high as it was in June 2007, so—does that mean an economic crisis?
More than one big shot has compared the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to June 2027 and then said that last time it didn’t take long before an economic crisis hit.
The problem is: with the same 5.27% U.S. Treasury yield, can it really be the same when the rate environment is 3.6% versus 5.25%?
┈➤ Long-end U.S. Treasury yields vs. the effective federal funds rate
The effective federal funds rate generally arises from temporary interbank borrowing when commercial banks’ reserves are insufficient for settlement. That’s a short-term rate.
Long-end U.S. Treasury yields, because the cycle is longer, require more term premium compensation. So, under normal circumstances, long-end Treasury yields should be higher than the effective federal funds rate (hereafter referred to as the rate).
┈➤ 2026 vs. 2017
In June 2017, the rate was 5.25%. At that time, the 5.27% Treasury yield was high—linked to a high rate.
In fact, from around July 2016 to June 2017, the 30-year Treasury yield was below the rate. That period was characterized by yield inversion.
June 2017 was when the 30-year Treasury yield had just climbed back to around the level of the rate. At that time, the Treasury yield wasn’t high relative to the rate.
Whether it was the inversion before June 2017 or the decline in the 30-year Treasury yield after June 2017, both reflect a shortage of demand for the 30-year Treasuries. The underlying motive was rate cuts and recession expectations.
But in today’s 2026, the rate is 3.6%—and the 30-year Treasury yield is far higher than the rate, and it’s trending upward.
Right now there are expectations of rate hikes, and there isn’t a trend of insufficient supply/demand for long-end Treasuries. Most likely, there are also no recession expectations.
Why “most likely”? Because the Treasury market’s size has grown too fast and there is some risk, so the motivation to buy Treasuries as a safe haven may be decreasing. However, another asset with safe-haven characteristics—gold—is also trending downward. So, most likely, there are no recession expectations.
More than one big shot has compared the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to June 2027 and then said that last time it didn’t take long before an economic crisis hit.
The problem is: with the same 5.27% U.S. Treasury yield, can it really be the same when the rate environment is 3.6% versus 5.25%?
┈➤ Long-end U.S. Treasury yields vs. the effective federal funds rate
The effective federal funds rate generally arises from temporary interbank borrowing when commercial banks’ reserves are insufficient for settlement. That’s a short-term rate.
Long-end U.S. Treasury yields, because the cycle is longer, require more term premium compensation. So, under normal circumstances, long-end Treasury yields should be higher than the effective federal funds rate (hereafter referred to as the rate).
┈➤ 2026 vs. 2017
In June 2017, the rate was 5.25%. At that time, the 5.27% Treasury yield was high—linked to a high rate.
In fact, from around July 2016 to June 2017, the 30-year Treasury yield was below the rate. That period was characterized by yield inversion.
June 2017 was when the 30-year Treasury yield had just climbed back to around the level of the rate. At that time, the Treasury yield wasn’t high relative to the rate.
Whether it was the inversion before June 2017 or the decline in the 30-year Treasury yield after June 2017, both reflect a shortage of demand for the 30-year Treasuries. The underlying motive was rate cuts and recession expectations.
But in today’s 2026, the rate is 3.6%—and the 30-year Treasury yield is far higher than the rate, and it’s trending upward.
Right now there are expectations of rate hikes, and there isn’t a trend of insufficient supply/demand for long-end Treasuries. Most likely, there are also no recession expectations.
Why “most likely”? Because the Treasury market’s size has grown too fast and there is some risk, so the motivation to buy Treasuries as a safe haven may be decreasing. However, another asset with safe-haven characteristics—gold—is also trending downward. So, most likely, there are no recession expectations.
TVBee
·
--
The risks in U.S. Treasuries are already clearly visible, so will the Federal Reserve really definitely hike rates in September?
Hiking interest rates would push up U.S. Treasury yields and increase the U.S. Treasury’s financing costs.
┈➤ The “ambiguity” between the Federal Reserve and the federal government
Although the Federal Reserve is independent, the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury is also “ambiguous.”
╰✦ The Federal Reserve remits its net profits to the federal government
On the one hand, although the Federal Reserve operates on a self-funded basis, it must remit the remaining net profits to the U.S. government.
The U.S. government will not provide any appropriations to the Federal Reserve. Moreover, after covering its costs, paying dividend payments to member commercial banks, offsetting prior losses, and retaining earnings within the statutory scope, the Federal Reserve will remit the vast majority of its net profits to the U.S. Treasury.
┈➤ The “ambiguity” between the Federal Reserve and the federal government
Although the Federal Reserve is independent, the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury is also “ambiguous.”
╰✦ The Federal Reserve remits its net profits to the federal government
On the one hand, although the Federal Reserve operates on a self-funded basis, it must remit the remaining net profits to the U.S. government.
The U.S. government will not provide any appropriations to the Federal Reserve. Moreover, after covering its costs, paying dividend payments to member commercial banks, offsetting prior losses, and retaining earnings within the statutory scope, the Federal Reserve will remit the vast majority of its net profits to the U.S. Treasury.
Verified
Verified
I found the reason for tonight’s rebound in US stocks! Is it a rebound or a reversal?
#美国二季度GDP增长1.5%不及预期
┈➤ Data
◆ Core PCE data
The year-over-year rate matched expectations (3.3%), while the month-over-month rate (0.1%) was below expectations (0.2%) and below the prior value (0.3%).
The annualized QoQ rate for Q2 (3.4%) was below expectations (3.5%) and below the prior value (4.4%).
◆ GDP data
Q2 GDP annualized QoQ (1.5%) was significantly below expectations (2.1%) and the prior value (2.1%).
◆ Personal spending data
The month-over-month rate matched expectations (0.3%), but was below the prior value (0.9%).
The real Q2 QoQ rate (3.2%) exceeded expectations (2.3%) and the prior value (0.5%).
┈➤ Interpretation
First, PCE data is more macro in nature than CPI data, and is a metric the Federal Reserve pays closer attention to. Overall, the PCE data was slightly weaker than expected, and it shows a downward trend compared with last month—this helps weaken the rationale for the Fed to raise rates.
Second, the GDP data came in below expectations and below Q1, indicating slowing economic growth, which also reduces the necessity for the Fed to raise rates.
Third, the Q2 real personal spending data is adjusted by stripping out inflation effects. It shows that personal consumption spending in Q2 was still relatively strong. However, while the personal spending month-over-month rate shows a fairly notable downward trend.
So overall, tonight’s data is conducive to weakening expectations of further Fed rate hikes. On CME, the expectation for a September rate hike dropped to 61.4%, down from 68% last night.
Of course, this is not enough to change the expectation of a rate hike in September. The Fed will focus on data sustained over several months rather than a single month.
Besides, the quarterly rate figures are initial estimates and will be adjusted later. Moreover, US-Iran relations became tense again in July, oil prices rose again, and the CPI data for July–August may not be optimistic.
So Brother Feng still leans toward a rebound rather than a reversal.
#美国二季度GDP增长1.5%不及预期
┈➤ Data
◆ Core PCE data
The year-over-year rate matched expectations (3.3%), while the month-over-month rate (0.1%) was below expectations (0.2%) and below the prior value (0.3%).
The annualized QoQ rate for Q2 (3.4%) was below expectations (3.5%) and below the prior value (4.4%).
◆ GDP data
Q2 GDP annualized QoQ (1.5%) was significantly below expectations (2.1%) and the prior value (2.1%).
◆ Personal spending data
The month-over-month rate matched expectations (0.3%), but was below the prior value (0.9%).
The real Q2 QoQ rate (3.2%) exceeded expectations (2.3%) and the prior value (0.5%).
┈➤ Interpretation
First, PCE data is more macro in nature than CPI data, and is a metric the Federal Reserve pays closer attention to. Overall, the PCE data was slightly weaker than expected, and it shows a downward trend compared with last month—this helps weaken the rationale for the Fed to raise rates.
Second, the GDP data came in below expectations and below Q1, indicating slowing economic growth, which also reduces the necessity for the Fed to raise rates.
Third, the Q2 real personal spending data is adjusted by stripping out inflation effects. It shows that personal consumption spending in Q2 was still relatively strong. However, while the personal spending month-over-month rate shows a fairly notable downward trend.
So overall, tonight’s data is conducive to weakening expectations of further Fed rate hikes. On CME, the expectation for a September rate hike dropped to 61.4%, down from 68% last night.
Of course, this is not enough to change the expectation of a rate hike in September. The Fed will focus on data sustained over several months rather than a single month.
Besides, the quarterly rate figures are initial estimates and will be adjusted later. Moreover, US-Iran relations became tense again in July, oil prices rose again, and the CPI data for July–August may not be optimistic.
So Brother Feng still leans toward a rebound rather than a reversal.
TVBee
·
--
If there is such a thing as past lives, then Trump must be that black swan from his past life reincarnating!
I originally had high hopes for the U.S. stock market and crypto during August’s monetary policy window, when there would be something of a lull.
But then Trump also took a liking to this window—just as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran reignited.
On the military front, on July 28, the Iranian side launched missile trials/strikes first against the U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East.
On the non-military front, in July, the U.S. reimposed sanctions on Iran for oil sales, including economic sanctions and sanctions related to Iranian shipping, among other measures.
A day before the FOMC meeting, Iran carried out an attack, which increased expectations for the U.S.-Iran conflict, higher oil prices, and a higher CPI. Some speculate that Iran intentionally timed it that way to “feed” the U.S. Federal Reserve hawkish rhetoric—and even to provide justification for rate hikes. In plain terms, it’s like helping Trump get “eye medicine.” Of course, that’s just my personal guess.
Fortunately, the market has been somewhat de-sensitized to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Around July 24, Brent crude (OPEC) had peaked near 100, and WTI had peaked near 73. Today, Brent crude (OPEC) peaked around 90, and WTI peaked around 85.
In terms of storage, there has been a rebound. Micron? $SKHYB returned to $132. Micron $MUB returned to $778, and $SNDKB returned to $1095.
I originally had high hopes for the U.S. stock market and crypto during August’s monetary policy window, when there would be something of a lull.
But then Trump also took a liking to this window—just as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran reignited.
On the military front, on July 28, the Iranian side launched missile trials/strikes first against the U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East.
On the non-military front, in July, the U.S. reimposed sanctions on Iran for oil sales, including economic sanctions and sanctions related to Iranian shipping, among other measures.
A day before the FOMC meeting, Iran carried out an attack, which increased expectations for the U.S.-Iran conflict, higher oil prices, and a higher CPI. Some speculate that Iran intentionally timed it that way to “feed” the U.S. Federal Reserve hawkish rhetoric—and even to provide justification for rate hikes. In plain terms, it’s like helping Trump get “eye medicine.” Of course, that’s just my personal guess.
Fortunately, the market has been somewhat de-sensitized to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Around July 24, Brent crude (OPEC) had peaked near 100, and WTI had peaked near 73. Today, Brent crude (OPEC) peaked around 90, and WTI peaked around 85.
In terms of storage, there has been a rebound. Micron? $SKHYB returned to $132. Micron $MUB returned to $778, and $SNDKB returned to $1095.
If there is such a thing as past lives, then Trump must be that black swan from his past life reincarnating!
I originally had high hopes for the U.S. stock market and crypto during August’s monetary policy window, when there would be something of a lull.
But then Trump also took a liking to this window—just as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran reignited.
On the military front, on July 28, the Iranian side launched missile trials/strikes first against the U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East.
On the non-military front, in July, the U.S. reimposed sanctions on Iran for oil sales, including economic sanctions and sanctions related to Iranian shipping, among other measures.
A day before the FOMC meeting, Iran carried out an attack, which increased expectations for the U.S.-Iran conflict, higher oil prices, and a higher CPI. Some speculate that Iran intentionally timed it that way to “feed” the U.S. Federal Reserve hawkish rhetoric—and even to provide justification for rate hikes. In plain terms, it’s like helping Trump get “eye medicine.” Of course, that’s just my personal guess.
Fortunately, the market has been somewhat de-sensitized to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Around July 24, Brent crude (OPEC) had peaked near 100, and WTI had peaked near 73. Today, Brent crude (OPEC) peaked around 90, and WTI peaked around 85.
In terms of storage, there has been a rebound. Micron? $SKHYB returned to $132. Micron $MUB returned to $778, and $SNDKB returned to $1095.
I originally had high hopes for the U.S. stock market and crypto during August’s monetary policy window, when there would be something of a lull.
But then Trump also took a liking to this window—just as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran reignited.
On the military front, on July 28, the Iranian side launched missile trials/strikes first against the U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East.
On the non-military front, in July, the U.S. reimposed sanctions on Iran for oil sales, including economic sanctions and sanctions related to Iranian shipping, among other measures.
A day before the FOMC meeting, Iran carried out an attack, which increased expectations for the U.S.-Iran conflict, higher oil prices, and a higher CPI. Some speculate that Iran intentionally timed it that way to “feed” the U.S. Federal Reserve hawkish rhetoric—and even to provide justification for rate hikes. In plain terms, it’s like helping Trump get “eye medicine.” Of course, that’s just my personal guess.
Fortunately, the market has been somewhat de-sensitized to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Around July 24, Brent crude (OPEC) had peaked near 100, and WTI had peaked near 73. Today, Brent crude (OPEC) peaked around 90, and WTI peaked around 85.
In terms of storage, there has been a rebound. Micron? $SKHYB returned to $132. Micron $MUB returned to $778, and $SNDKB returned to $1095.
TVBee
·
--
No rate hike in July; the stance is neutral with a slight hawkish tilt
As the market largely expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise rates in July.
With the exception of three firmly hawkish officials who argued for a rate hike in July, all other officials voted to keep the July interest rate unchanged.
Among them are two officials with a mildly hawkish leaning. One is Wash, who serves as Chair of the Federal Reserve. His recent comments are relatively flexible, advocating for adjusting policy in line with economic conditions.
The other is Lisa D. Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board. She previously leaned dovish, then shifted to hawkish. Earlier, Trump had attempted to fire her. It’s unclear whether that pressure played a role; in mid-July, she said that more time should be observed.
Overall, the signals released by this FOMC meeting are not dovish, but they are also not very hawkish. The specifics will be clearer once next month’s minutes of the July meeting are reviewed.
Of the 12 voting officials involved in the Fed, eight are permanent seats, and all of them supported holding rates steady in July.
Their remarks are also relatively cautious.
Meanwhile, the three firmly hawkish officials occupy 2026 voting seats; they will no longer have voting rights next year.
Starting next month, Brother Feng will also summarize the officials who will have voting rights in 2027.
Expectations for a rate hike in September are very high. Although August is a window with no monetary policy decision, in the latter part of August—even in the second half—there may be an earlier “price-in” of the downside risk of a September rate hike.
At the beginning of August, focus especially on the Senate-wide vote on the crypto clarity bill.
As the market largely expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise rates in July.
With the exception of three firmly hawkish officials who argued for a rate hike in July, all other officials voted to keep the July interest rate unchanged.
Among them are two officials with a mildly hawkish leaning. One is Wash, who serves as Chair of the Federal Reserve. His recent comments are relatively flexible, advocating for adjusting policy in line with economic conditions.
The other is Lisa D. Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board. She previously leaned dovish, then shifted to hawkish. Earlier, Trump had attempted to fire her. It’s unclear whether that pressure played a role; in mid-July, she said that more time should be observed.
Overall, the signals released by this FOMC meeting are not dovish, but they are also not very hawkish. The specifics will be clearer once next month’s minutes of the July meeting are reviewed.
Of the 12 voting officials involved in the Fed, eight are permanent seats, and all of them supported holding rates steady in July.
Their remarks are also relatively cautious.
Meanwhile, the three firmly hawkish officials occupy 2026 voting seats; they will no longer have voting rights next year.
Starting next month, Brother Feng will also summarize the officials who will have voting rights in 2027.
Expectations for a rate hike in September are very high. Although August is a window with no monetary policy decision, in the latter part of August—even in the second half—there may be an earlier “price-in” of the downside risk of a September rate hike.
At the beginning of August, focus especially on the Senate-wide vote on the crypto clarity bill.
Verified
No rate hike in July; the stance is neutral with a slight hawkish tilt
As the market largely expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise rates in July.
With the exception of three firmly hawkish officials who argued for a rate hike in July, all other officials voted to keep the July interest rate unchanged.
Among them are two officials with a mildly hawkish leaning. One is Wash, who serves as Chair of the Federal Reserve. His recent comments are relatively flexible, advocating for adjusting policy in line with economic conditions.
The other is Lisa D. Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board. She previously leaned dovish, then shifted to hawkish. Earlier, Trump had attempted to fire her. It’s unclear whether that pressure played a role; in mid-July, she said that more time should be observed.
Overall, the signals released by this FOMC meeting are not dovish, but they are also not very hawkish. The specifics will be clearer once next month’s minutes of the July meeting are reviewed.
Of the 12 voting officials involved in the Fed, eight are permanent seats, and all of them supported holding rates steady in July.
Their remarks are also relatively cautious.
Meanwhile, the three firmly hawkish officials occupy 2026 voting seats; they will no longer have voting rights next year.
Starting next month, Brother Feng will also summarize the officials who will have voting rights in 2027.
Expectations for a rate hike in September are very high. Although August is a window with no monetary policy decision, in the latter part of August—even in the second half—there may be an earlier “price-in” of the downside risk of a September rate hike.
At the beginning of August, focus especially on the Senate-wide vote on the crypto clarity bill.
As the market largely expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise rates in July.
With the exception of three firmly hawkish officials who argued for a rate hike in July, all other officials voted to keep the July interest rate unchanged.
Among them are two officials with a mildly hawkish leaning. One is Wash, who serves as Chair of the Federal Reserve. His recent comments are relatively flexible, advocating for adjusting policy in line with economic conditions.
The other is Lisa D. Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board. She previously leaned dovish, then shifted to hawkish. Earlier, Trump had attempted to fire her. It’s unclear whether that pressure played a role; in mid-July, she said that more time should be observed.
Overall, the signals released by this FOMC meeting are not dovish, but they are also not very hawkish. The specifics will be clearer once next month’s minutes of the July meeting are reviewed.
Of the 12 voting officials involved in the Fed, eight are permanent seats, and all of them supported holding rates steady in July.
Their remarks are also relatively cautious.
Meanwhile, the three firmly hawkish officials occupy 2026 voting seats; they will no longer have voting rights next year.
Starting next month, Brother Feng will also summarize the officials who will have voting rights in 2027.
Expectations for a rate hike in September are very high. Although August is a window with no monetary policy decision, in the latter part of August—even in the second half—there may be an earlier “price-in” of the downside risk of a September rate hike.
At the beginning of August, focus especially on the Senate-wide vote on the crypto clarity bill.
TVBee
·
--
Most likely: the Fed will not raise rates tonight, but it will signal future hikes
#美联储利率决议即将公布
┈➤Most likely, the Fed will not raise rates tonight
╰✦The market expects a relatively high probability of holding rates steady
CME’s interest rate futures products show that the probability the market will keep expectations for a July rate hike unchanged is 68.5%.
In recent days, expectations of a rate hike have risen due to heightened tensions between the US and Iran, which has pushed up oil prices. Polymarket’s expectation of no rate hike in July fell from 96% to 75% over the past two days, but it is still around 75%.
These two products—one is interest rate futures, the other is a prediction market—are essentially traders “voting” with real money.
Especially CME interest rate futures: starting in mid-2023, the Fed’s dot plot indicated there would be more hikes in the second half of the year, but CME interest rate futures showed no further hikes. As it turned out, there were no hikes in the second half.
╰✦Layoff trend
Recently, Visa, Uber, ServiceNow, Disney, and Patreon have all clearly stated that layoffs are coming. For example, Visa said it will lay off 2,600 people, while Uber said it will cut 10%……
If even large companies are doing this, what about small businesses?
The trend of corporate layoffs is driven by AI replacing human labor, along with broader economic trends. While cutting rates can’t solve the issue of AI replacing human workers, it still deserves serious consideration before raising rates.
That’s why market expectations for a rate hike in September are relatively high, including predictions from both CME interest rate futures and Polymarket.
┈➤Release rate-hike expectations
The Fed will most likely release rate-hike expectations.
Brother Feng has analyzed this issue more than once: rate hikes cannot solve the inflation triggered by rising oil prices.
However, inflation caused by rising oil prices can lead to expectations of wage growth and higher demand. Once wages rise, they further increase corporate costs, which then pushes up the prices of goods and services.
The purpose of rate-hike expectations is to, in this “wage-inflation” spiral, curb expectations of wage growth—thereby suppressing the “wage-inflation” spiral.
┈➤To wrap up
The layoff trend, on the one hand, reduces the Fed’s need for sufficient grounds to raise rates.
On the other hand, with a layoff trend in place, Americans’ demand and desire for wage increases will also decrease, and the trend of the “wage-inflation” spiral will likewise fall—resulting in an even lower necessity for the Fed to raise rates.
It’s a pretty interesting logic.
Given market expectations, the Fed will most likely not raise rates tonight.
#美联储利率决议即将公布
┈➤Most likely, the Fed will not raise rates tonight
╰✦The market expects a relatively high probability of holding rates steady
CME’s interest rate futures products show that the probability the market will keep expectations for a July rate hike unchanged is 68.5%.
In recent days, expectations of a rate hike have risen due to heightened tensions between the US and Iran, which has pushed up oil prices. Polymarket’s expectation of no rate hike in July fell from 96% to 75% over the past two days, but it is still around 75%.
These two products—one is interest rate futures, the other is a prediction market—are essentially traders “voting” with real money.
Especially CME interest rate futures: starting in mid-2023, the Fed’s dot plot indicated there would be more hikes in the second half of the year, but CME interest rate futures showed no further hikes. As it turned out, there were no hikes in the second half.
╰✦Layoff trend
Recently, Visa, Uber, ServiceNow, Disney, and Patreon have all clearly stated that layoffs are coming. For example, Visa said it will lay off 2,600 people, while Uber said it will cut 10%……
If even large companies are doing this, what about small businesses?
The trend of corporate layoffs is driven by AI replacing human labor, along with broader economic trends. While cutting rates can’t solve the issue of AI replacing human workers, it still deserves serious consideration before raising rates.
That’s why market expectations for a rate hike in September are relatively high, including predictions from both CME interest rate futures and Polymarket.
┈➤Release rate-hike expectations
The Fed will most likely release rate-hike expectations.
Brother Feng has analyzed this issue more than once: rate hikes cannot solve the inflation triggered by rising oil prices.
However, inflation caused by rising oil prices can lead to expectations of wage growth and higher demand. Once wages rise, they further increase corporate costs, which then pushes up the prices of goods and services.
The purpose of rate-hike expectations is to, in this “wage-inflation” spiral, curb expectations of wage growth—thereby suppressing the “wage-inflation” spiral.
┈➤To wrap up
The layoff trend, on the one hand, reduces the Fed’s need for sufficient grounds to raise rates.
On the other hand, with a layoff trend in place, Americans’ demand and desire for wage increases will also decrease, and the trend of the “wage-inflation” spiral will likewise fall—resulting in an even lower necessity for the Fed to raise rates.
It’s a pretty interesting logic.
Given market expectations, the Fed will most likely not raise rates tonight.
Verified
Most likely: the Fed will not raise rates tonight, but it will signal future hikes
#美联储利率决议即将公布
┈➤Most likely, the Fed will not raise rates tonight
╰✦The market expects a relatively high probability of holding rates steady
CME’s interest rate futures products show that the probability the market will keep expectations for a July rate hike unchanged is 68.5%.
In recent days, expectations of a rate hike have risen due to heightened tensions between the US and Iran, which has pushed up oil prices. Polymarket’s expectation of no rate hike in July fell from 96% to 75% over the past two days, but it is still around 75%.
These two products—one is interest rate futures, the other is a prediction market—are essentially traders “voting” with real money.
Especially CME interest rate futures: starting in mid-2023, the Fed’s dot plot indicated there would be more hikes in the second half of the year, but CME interest rate futures showed no further hikes. As it turned out, there were no hikes in the second half.
╰✦Layoff trend
Recently, Visa, Uber, ServiceNow, Disney, and Patreon have all clearly stated that layoffs are coming. For example, Visa said it will lay off 2,600 people, while Uber said it will cut 10%……
If even large companies are doing this, what about small businesses?
The trend of corporate layoffs is driven by AI replacing human labor, along with broader economic trends. While cutting rates can’t solve the issue of AI replacing human workers, it still deserves serious consideration before raising rates.
That’s why market expectations for a rate hike in September are relatively high, including predictions from both CME interest rate futures and Polymarket.
┈➤Release rate-hike expectations
The Fed will most likely release rate-hike expectations.
Brother Feng has analyzed this issue more than once: rate hikes cannot solve the inflation triggered by rising oil prices.
However, inflation caused by rising oil prices can lead to expectations of wage growth and higher demand. Once wages rise, they further increase corporate costs, which then pushes up the prices of goods and services.
The purpose of rate-hike expectations is to, in this “wage-inflation” spiral, curb expectations of wage growth—thereby suppressing the “wage-inflation” spiral.
┈➤To wrap up
The layoff trend, on the one hand, reduces the Fed’s need for sufficient grounds to raise rates.
On the other hand, with a layoff trend in place, Americans’ demand and desire for wage increases will also decrease, and the trend of the “wage-inflation” spiral will likewise fall—resulting in an even lower necessity for the Fed to raise rates.
It’s a pretty interesting logic.
Given market expectations, the Fed will most likely not raise rates tonight.
#美联储利率决议即将公布
┈➤Most likely, the Fed will not raise rates tonight
╰✦The market expects a relatively high probability of holding rates steady
CME’s interest rate futures products show that the probability the market will keep expectations for a July rate hike unchanged is 68.5%.
In recent days, expectations of a rate hike have risen due to heightened tensions between the US and Iran, which has pushed up oil prices. Polymarket’s expectation of no rate hike in July fell from 96% to 75% over the past two days, but it is still around 75%.
These two products—one is interest rate futures, the other is a prediction market—are essentially traders “voting” with real money.
Especially CME interest rate futures: starting in mid-2023, the Fed’s dot plot indicated there would be more hikes in the second half of the year, but CME interest rate futures showed no further hikes. As it turned out, there were no hikes in the second half.
╰✦Layoff trend
Recently, Visa, Uber, ServiceNow, Disney, and Patreon have all clearly stated that layoffs are coming. For example, Visa said it will lay off 2,600 people, while Uber said it will cut 10%……
If even large companies are doing this, what about small businesses?
The trend of corporate layoffs is driven by AI replacing human labor, along with broader economic trends. While cutting rates can’t solve the issue of AI replacing human workers, it still deserves serious consideration before raising rates.
That’s why market expectations for a rate hike in September are relatively high, including predictions from both CME interest rate futures and Polymarket.
┈➤Release rate-hike expectations
The Fed will most likely release rate-hike expectations.
Brother Feng has analyzed this issue more than once: rate hikes cannot solve the inflation triggered by rising oil prices.
However, inflation caused by rising oil prices can lead to expectations of wage growth and higher demand. Once wages rise, they further increase corporate costs, which then pushes up the prices of goods and services.
The purpose of rate-hike expectations is to, in this “wage-inflation” spiral, curb expectations of wage growth—thereby suppressing the “wage-inflation” spiral.
┈➤To wrap up
The layoff trend, on the one hand, reduces the Fed’s need for sufficient grounds to raise rates.
On the other hand, with a layoff trend in place, Americans’ demand and desire for wage increases will also decrease, and the trend of the “wage-inflation” spiral will likewise fall—resulting in an even lower necessity for the Fed to raise rates.
It’s a pretty interesting logic.
Given market expectations, the Fed will most likely not raise rates tonight.
Partly True
The first step in the bear-market research project may be elimination.
the deBridge team may be one of the most keenly sensing Web3 teams.
Starting in 2023 with the Solana ecosystem, it developed Solana and the cross-chain between EVM ecosystems in 2024–2025; in Q1 2026, it developed AI tools; and in Q2 2026, it focused on cross-chain payments...
It was already integrated with the HyperLiquid and HyperEVM ecosystems before HyperLiquid really caught fire. After Robinhood went live, it quickly supported...
┈➤ Suspected “lying low” ecosystems
Sometime after a point, deBridge stopped supporting a number of ecosystem chains, including:
◆ Stablecoin-dedicated chains — Plasma, TVL $609.7M
◆ A public chain founded in 2015 — Gnosis, TVL $99.61M
◆ Closely tied to Bybit — Mantle, TVL $78.12M
◆ The — Berachain, TVL $49.79M — that created the POL consensus three-coin model
◆ A high-speed parallel chain — Sei, TVL $41.64M
◆ A chain extended from Fantom — Sonic, TVL $14.14M
◆ A self-developed chain for games and consumer use — Flow, TVL $10.87M
◆ A consumer chain built by a “fat enterprise” team — Abstract, TVL $10.16M
In addition, there are BOB and Neon, with TVL under $10M.
These ecosystems that deBridge stopped supporting should be ones where the cross-chain capital scale for deBridge was quite small.
┈➤ Possibly still-active ecosystems
Besides the mainstream public chains, deBridge also supports several newer public chains, including:
◆ Ethereum L2 — MegaETH, TVL $46.52M
◆ Linea — developed by MetaMask’s parent company, TVL $27.83M
◆ The hot parallel chain — Monad, TVL $827M
◆ — DATA (formerly Story) — which pivoted to AI training data, TVL $257.5K
Through detailed comparisons, it can be seen that the #Linea and Monad ecosystems have relatively higher levels of activity; among them, Linea has a higher number of contract deployments. Also, MetaMask’s development team size and frequency are quite high.
#Monad performs relatively better in terms of TVL, active addresses, developer count, and token price growth. And both estimated ratios are relatively low—of course, that’s because the market is afraid of high valuations; the higher the market cap, the lower the typical ratio.
the deBridge team may be one of the most keenly sensing Web3 teams.
Starting in 2023 with the Solana ecosystem, it developed Solana and the cross-chain between EVM ecosystems in 2024–2025; in Q1 2026, it developed AI tools; and in Q2 2026, it focused on cross-chain payments...
It was already integrated with the HyperLiquid and HyperEVM ecosystems before HyperLiquid really caught fire. After Robinhood went live, it quickly supported...
┈➤ Suspected “lying low” ecosystems
Sometime after a point, deBridge stopped supporting a number of ecosystem chains, including:
◆ Stablecoin-dedicated chains — Plasma, TVL $609.7M
◆ A public chain founded in 2015 — Gnosis, TVL $99.61M
◆ Closely tied to Bybit — Mantle, TVL $78.12M
◆ The — Berachain, TVL $49.79M — that created the POL consensus three-coin model
◆ A high-speed parallel chain — Sei, TVL $41.64M
◆ A chain extended from Fantom — Sonic, TVL $14.14M
◆ A self-developed chain for games and consumer use — Flow, TVL $10.87M
◆ A consumer chain built by a “fat enterprise” team — Abstract, TVL $10.16M
In addition, there are BOB and Neon, with TVL under $10M.
These ecosystems that deBridge stopped supporting should be ones where the cross-chain capital scale for deBridge was quite small.
┈➤ Possibly still-active ecosystems
Besides the mainstream public chains, deBridge also supports several newer public chains, including:
◆ Ethereum L2 — MegaETH, TVL $46.52M
◆ Linea — developed by MetaMask’s parent company, TVL $27.83M
◆ The hot parallel chain — Monad, TVL $827M
◆ — DATA (formerly Story) — which pivoted to AI training data, TVL $257.5K
Through detailed comparisons, it can be seen that the #Linea and Monad ecosystems have relatively higher levels of activity; among them, Linea has a higher number of contract deployments. Also, MetaMask’s development team size and frequency are quite high.
#Monad performs relatively better in terms of TVL, active addresses, developer count, and token price growth. And both estimated ratios are relatively low—of course, that’s because the market is afraid of high valuations; the higher the market cap, the lower the typical ratio.
The premium for MXLICE today has rebounded somewhat.
Yesterday it dropped directly from a premium of 28.37% to 15.44%. Aside from the first 3 days before listing, this is the smallest premium level SKHY has seen.
Today during after-hours in the US stock market, under $SKHY , the decline was relatively small. After the market opened, it still chased the decline in the underlying shares.
But the premium has still returned to above 24%.
I don’t have a TradingView membership. If you’re interested, you can use this code directly:
NASDAQ:SKHY*10/(KRX:000660/FX_IDC:USDKRW)-1
Yesterday it dropped directly from a premium of 28.37% to 15.44%. Aside from the first 3 days before listing, this is the smallest premium level SKHY has seen.
Today during after-hours in the US stock market, under $SKHY , the decline was relatively small. After the market opened, it still chased the decline in the underlying shares.
But the premium has still returned to above 24%.
I don’t have a TradingView membership. If you’re interested, you can use this code directly:
NASDAQ:SKHY*10/(KRX:000660/FX_IDC:USDKRW)-1
I found the reason I can’t make any money too!
I’m completely convinced! Right now, MSTR is basically a blood bag that’s funding STRC.
Last week, MicroStrategy artificially issued an additional 1.435% of $MSTR, and then repurchased 0.276% of $STRC.
MSTR dilutes the BTC shareholding rights, and the issuance ratio is even larger;
STRC reduces the circulating supply, but the repurchase ratio is smaller.
As a result, at the open STRC went up 2%, while MSTR / BTC actually went up 5%. I…
I’ve worked out MicroStrategy’s books clearly and precisely, but I just can’t figure out human nature!
I always thought Saylor was more brilliant than SBF, but netizens insist that SBF is more brilliant.
The only explanation I can come up with is that the consensus of the idiots is still a consensus—so then Binance Square users say that I’m the idiot… @蛤吉米
I’m completely convinced! Right now, MSTR is basically a blood bag that’s funding STRC.
Last week, MicroStrategy artificially issued an additional 1.435% of $MSTR, and then repurchased 0.276% of $STRC.
MSTR dilutes the BTC shareholding rights, and the issuance ratio is even larger;
STRC reduces the circulating supply, but the repurchase ratio is smaller.
As a result, at the open STRC went up 2%, while MSTR / BTC actually went up 5%. I…
I’ve worked out MicroStrategy’s books clearly and precisely, but I just can’t figure out human nature!
I always thought Saylor was more brilliant than SBF, but netizens insist that SBF is more brilliant.
The only explanation I can come up with is that the consensus of the idiots is still a consensus—so then Binance Square users say that I’m the idiot… @蛤吉米
TVBee
·
--
I found the reason why you’re losing money with your own trades!
◆ The reason you lose in contracts is:
Whenever you’re making money, Brother Bee stops paying attention. The take-profit is set with greed and attachment—then when you come back to check, you’re down.
Whenever you’re losing, Brother Bee stares at the screen. Watching and watching until you can’t take it anymore and end up hitting the stop loss. But the moment you stop out, it reverses.
◆ The reason you lose with spot trading is that an 8-year crypto content creator has developed a bad habit:
In a bear market, research the market—because everyone is paying attention, people are focused on when the market will get better.
In a bull market, research projects—because everyone is paying attention, people are focused on which coins can make you earn more.
So in the end, in the bear market you didn’t position well in advance, and in the bear market you didn’t exit the top in time.
Everyone here—does anyone have the same “Brother Bee” style?”
😥
◆ The reason you lose in contracts is:
Whenever you’re making money, Brother Bee stops paying attention. The take-profit is set with greed and attachment—then when you come back to check, you’re down.
Whenever you’re losing, Brother Bee stares at the screen. Watching and watching until you can’t take it anymore and end up hitting the stop loss. But the moment you stop out, it reverses.
◆ The reason you lose with spot trading is that an 8-year crypto content creator has developed a bad habit:
In a bear market, research the market—because everyone is paying attention, people are focused on when the market will get better.
In a bull market, research projects—because everyone is paying attention, people are focused on which coins can make you earn more.
So in the end, in the bear market you didn’t position well in advance, and in the bear market you didn’t exit the top in time.
Everyone here—does anyone have the same “Brother Bee” style?”
😥
Partly True
Saylor again plays with human nature, releasing a positive signal through STRC’s mini buyback
Last week we recommended buying $STRC , and this week it indeed released good news.
┈➤ MSTR continues to fund STRC
MicroStrategy issued $MSTR in new financing last week for $544.5 million.
Of that, about $25 million was used to repurchase STRC, accounting for 0.275% of STRC’s total supply—but STRC gapped up at the open, rising 2.12%.
MicroStrategy can also sell BTC worth $1000 million to repurchase STRC.
┈➤ The US dollar reserves can pay dividends and interest through Aug~Sep 28
After the buyback, STRC’s monthly dividend decreased by $289K.
Most of the revenue from the additional MSTR issuance is still allocated into the US dollar reserves.
So the US dollar reserves can pay dividends and interest through Aug~Sep 28.
┈➤ Written at the end
We can only say that Saylor still knows how to control human nature.
MicroStrategy has been working to increase its US dollar reserves, but since July, STRC’s price has been trading roughly between $84~$89 with no clear improvement.
MicroStrategy started repurchasing STRC last week. Even though the buyback amount is small, it still affects market sentiment:
On one hand, although MSTR was issued out of thin air last week, the MSTR/BTC ratio opened up today by 5%.
And STRC gapped higher today, with a high of $89.39. Hoping STRC can break upward.
Last week we recommended buying $STRC , and this week it indeed released good news.
┈➤ MSTR continues to fund STRC
MicroStrategy issued $MSTR in new financing last week for $544.5 million.
Of that, about $25 million was used to repurchase STRC, accounting for 0.275% of STRC’s total supply—but STRC gapped up at the open, rising 2.12%.
MicroStrategy can also sell BTC worth $1000 million to repurchase STRC.
┈➤ The US dollar reserves can pay dividends and interest through Aug~Sep 28
After the buyback, STRC’s monthly dividend decreased by $289K.
Most of the revenue from the additional MSTR issuance is still allocated into the US dollar reserves.
So the US dollar reserves can pay dividends and interest through Aug~Sep 28.
┈➤ Written at the end
We can only say that Saylor still knows how to control human nature.
MicroStrategy has been working to increase its US dollar reserves, but since July, STRC’s price has been trading roughly between $84~$89 with no clear improvement.
MicroStrategy started repurchasing STRC last week. Even though the buyback amount is small, it still affects market sentiment:
On one hand, although MSTR was issued out of thin air last week, the MSTR/BTC ratio opened up today by 5%.
And STRC gapped higher today, with a high of $89.39. Hoping STRC can break upward.
TVBee
·
--
Hynix keeps buying while prices keep falling...😭 I’ll still buy some STRC!
In these three preferred stock ETFs, $STRC has become the highest-weighting holding:
BlackRock’s PFF, InfraCap’s PFFA, and VanEck’s PFXF.
These are among the largest preferred stock ETFs globally—among them, BlackRock’s PFF is the largest preferred stock ETF worldwide.
PFF and PFXF are passive ETFs that automatically track their respective preferred stock indexes.
$PFF tracks ICE’s “Exchange-Traded Preferred Stock and Hybrid Securities Index,” which includes 462 preferred stocks. PFF holds STRC with a market value of $456 million, accounting for 3.47% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 5.12% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFXF tracks ICE’s “Non-Financial Preferred Stock Index,” which includes 121 preferred stocks. PFXF holds STRC with a market value of $205 million, accounting for 8.59% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 2.25% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFFA is an actively managed ETF, where the fund manager manually adjusts holdings (adds/reduces positions), including 196 preferred stocks. PFFA holds STRC with a market value of about $72.19 million, accounting for 2.98% of the entire ETF, and 0.79% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
ICE continues to include STRC in its preferred stock index. The managers of the active ETF choose to hold the most STRC, indicating that STRC’s risk is within an acceptable range and that the returns are somewhat attractive—showing a positive outlook on BTC’s future.
Trust @saylor. Trust the fund managers at ICE and InfraCap.
Semiconductors are uncertain—so I went ahead and bought the real U.S. STRC on Binance. I’ll wait for the price to return to around $100, and meanwhile receive dividends once every half month.
In these three preferred stock ETFs, $STRC has become the highest-weighting holding:
BlackRock’s PFF, InfraCap’s PFFA, and VanEck’s PFXF.
These are among the largest preferred stock ETFs globally—among them, BlackRock’s PFF is the largest preferred stock ETF worldwide.
PFF and PFXF are passive ETFs that automatically track their respective preferred stock indexes.
$PFF tracks ICE’s “Exchange-Traded Preferred Stock and Hybrid Securities Index,” which includes 462 preferred stocks. PFF holds STRC with a market value of $456 million, accounting for 3.47% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 5.12% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFXF tracks ICE’s “Non-Financial Preferred Stock Index,” which includes 121 preferred stocks. PFXF holds STRC with a market value of $205 million, accounting for 8.59% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 2.25% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFFA is an actively managed ETF, where the fund manager manually adjusts holdings (adds/reduces positions), including 196 preferred stocks. PFFA holds STRC with a market value of about $72.19 million, accounting for 2.98% of the entire ETF, and 0.79% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
ICE continues to include STRC in its preferred stock index. The managers of the active ETF choose to hold the most STRC, indicating that STRC’s risk is within an acceptable range and that the returns are somewhat attractive—showing a positive outlook on BTC’s future.
Trust @saylor. Trust the fund managers at ICE and InfraCap.
Semiconductors are uncertain—so I went ahead and bought the real U.S. STRC on Binance. I’ll wait for the price to return to around $100, and meanwhile receive dividends once every half month.
I found the reason why you’re losing money with your own trades!
◆ The reason you lose in contracts is:
Whenever you’re making money, Brother Bee stops paying attention. The take-profit is set with greed and attachment—then when you come back to check, you’re down.
Whenever you’re losing, Brother Bee stares at the screen. Watching and watching until you can’t take it anymore and end up hitting the stop loss. But the moment you stop out, it reverses.
◆ The reason you lose with spot trading is that an 8-year crypto content creator has developed a bad habit:
In a bear market, research the market—because everyone is paying attention, people are focused on when the market will get better.
In a bull market, research projects—because everyone is paying attention, people are focused on which coins can make you earn more.
So in the end, in the bear market you didn’t position well in advance, and in the bear market you didn’t exit the top in time.
Everyone here—does anyone have the same “Brother Bee” style?”
😥
◆ The reason you lose in contracts is:
Whenever you’re making money, Brother Bee stops paying attention. The take-profit is set with greed and attachment—then when you come back to check, you’re down.
Whenever you’re losing, Brother Bee stares at the screen. Watching and watching until you can’t take it anymore and end up hitting the stop loss. But the moment you stop out, it reverses.
◆ The reason you lose with spot trading is that an 8-year crypto content creator has developed a bad habit:
In a bear market, research the market—because everyone is paying attention, people are focused on when the market will get better.
In a bull market, research projects—because everyone is paying attention, people are focused on which coins can make you earn more.
So in the end, in the bear market you didn’t position well in advance, and in the bear market you didn’t exit the top in time.
Everyone here—does anyone have the same “Brother Bee” style?”
😥
I’m an idiot—went directly long and bought into Changxin Memory.
At the IPO price of 8.66, I was thinking: could it still drop below the issue price with 6.45?
After I placed the order, it hit me—it’s a U price, which is like over RMB 43… 😂😂😂😂
Luckily the ending was good; I took profit at 7.25.
At the IPO price of 8.66, I was thinking: could it still drop below the issue price with 6.45?
After I placed the order, it hit me—it’s a U price, which is like over RMB 43… 😂😂😂😂
Luckily the ending was good; I took profit at 7.25.
TVBee
·
--
Does the P/E ratio for the Yangtze Memory (CXMT) IPO reach 300? Can it still be played?
┈➤ Static P/E ratio
◆ #Yangtze Memory (CXMT) will open tomorrow at an issue price of 8.66,
◆New shares 668,808.8608 million (10% of total shares),
◆ The net profit attributable to the parent company at the end of 2015 was 187,485.94 million.
◆ According to A-share IPO regulations, calculate the 2025 static P/E ratio:
PE=8.66*668,808.8608*10/187,485.94=308.92
But this is the static data at the end of 25; the market should, and is likely to, compute and value using dynamic data.
┈➤ Rolling P/E ratio from 25Q2 to 26Q1
◆ Net profit of the parent company from 25Q2 to 26Q1
=Full year 2025 + Q1 2026 - Q1 2025
=187,485.94+2,476,203.15-(-155,902.79)
◆ #Yangtze Memory (CXMT) will open tomorrow at an issue price of 8.66,
◆New shares 668,808.8608 million (10% of total shares),
◆ The net profit attributable to the parent company at the end of 2015 was 187,485.94 million.
◆ According to A-share IPO regulations, calculate the 2025 static P/E ratio:
PE=8.66*668,808.8608*10/187,485.94=308.92
But this is the static data at the end of 25; the market should, and is likely to, compute and value using dynamic data.
┈➤ Rolling P/E ratio from 25Q2 to 26Q1
◆ Net profit of the parent company from 25Q2 to 26Q1
=Full year 2025 + Q1 2026 - Q1 2025
=187,485.94+2,476,203.15-(-155,902.79)
Partly True
Say something that might offend people—don’t buy MSTR for now.
Some friends have asked: why not buy $MSTR , but instead buy $STRC ?
Because MicroStrategy has been issuing more MSTR for 2 consecutive weeks, but it hasn’t used this new money to buy BTC.
That’s why since July, the MSTR/BTC ratio has been in a downward trend.
┈➤ At this stage, buying MSTR may be worse than buying BTC directly
Even if BTC rises, MSTR may not follow.
If BTC surges by a large amount, MSTR might also go up, but the upside may not keep pace.
So don’t buy MSTR in the short term. If you’re bullish on the trend, just buy BTC.
┈➤ Don’t look at the upside potential of STRC as smaller than MSTR
MicroStrategy’s strategy right now is to sacrifice MSTR to rescue STRC. The goal is to pull STRC’s price back to around $100.
Take a look at the MSTR/STRC ratio—it’s also been in a downward trend since July 1.
Don’t just assume that because MSTR has more room to rise, STRC can only rise to $100 at most.
STRC also pays a dividend once every half month.
And STRC’s current market price is $86.89, but dividends are calculated based on a $100 par value.
STRC’s nominal dividend yield is 12%, but the actual dividend yield is 12/86.89 = 13.81%.
┈➤ To wrap up
Only when STRC returns to around $100—ideally when it stabilizes—then it may be a good time to buy MSTR.
Because once STRC stabilizes around $100, MicroStrategy will most likely continue issuing more STRC and buying BTC. They might even sell BTC to repurchase MSTR.
For MicroStrategy, STRC is the short-term target, and MSTR is the long-term target—but not right now.
Some friends have asked: why not buy $MSTR , but instead buy $STRC ?
Because MicroStrategy has been issuing more MSTR for 2 consecutive weeks, but it hasn’t used this new money to buy BTC.
That’s why since July, the MSTR/BTC ratio has been in a downward trend.
┈➤ At this stage, buying MSTR may be worse than buying BTC directly
Even if BTC rises, MSTR may not follow.
If BTC surges by a large amount, MSTR might also go up, but the upside may not keep pace.
So don’t buy MSTR in the short term. If you’re bullish on the trend, just buy BTC.
┈➤ Don’t look at the upside potential of STRC as smaller than MSTR
MicroStrategy’s strategy right now is to sacrifice MSTR to rescue STRC. The goal is to pull STRC’s price back to around $100.
Take a look at the MSTR/STRC ratio—it’s also been in a downward trend since July 1.
Don’t just assume that because MSTR has more room to rise, STRC can only rise to $100 at most.
STRC also pays a dividend once every half month.
And STRC’s current market price is $86.89, but dividends are calculated based on a $100 par value.
STRC’s nominal dividend yield is 12%, but the actual dividend yield is 12/86.89 = 13.81%.
┈➤ To wrap up
Only when STRC returns to around $100—ideally when it stabilizes—then it may be a good time to buy MSTR.
Because once STRC stabilizes around $100, MicroStrategy will most likely continue issuing more STRC and buying BTC. They might even sell BTC to repurchase MSTR.
For MicroStrategy, STRC is the short-term target, and MSTR is the long-term target—but not right now.
TVBee
·
--
Hynix keeps buying while prices keep falling...😭 I’ll still buy some STRC!
In these three preferred stock ETFs, $STRC has become the highest-weighting holding:
BlackRock’s PFF, InfraCap’s PFFA, and VanEck’s PFXF.
These are among the largest preferred stock ETFs globally—among them, BlackRock’s PFF is the largest preferred stock ETF worldwide.
PFF and PFXF are passive ETFs that automatically track their respective preferred stock indexes.
$PFF tracks ICE’s “Exchange-Traded Preferred Stock and Hybrid Securities Index,” which includes 462 preferred stocks. PFF holds STRC with a market value of $456 million, accounting for 3.47% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 5.12% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFXF tracks ICE’s “Non-Financial Preferred Stock Index,” which includes 121 preferred stocks. PFXF holds STRC with a market value of $205 million, accounting for 8.59% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 2.25% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFFA is an actively managed ETF, where the fund manager manually adjusts holdings (adds/reduces positions), including 196 preferred stocks. PFFA holds STRC with a market value of about $72.19 million, accounting for 2.98% of the entire ETF, and 0.79% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
ICE continues to include STRC in its preferred stock index. The managers of the active ETF choose to hold the most STRC, indicating that STRC’s risk is within an acceptable range and that the returns are somewhat attractive—showing a positive outlook on BTC’s future.
Trust @saylor. Trust the fund managers at ICE and InfraCap.
Semiconductors are uncertain—so I went ahead and bought the real U.S. STRC on Binance. I’ll wait for the price to return to around $100, and meanwhile receive dividends once every half month.
In these three preferred stock ETFs, $STRC has become the highest-weighting holding:
BlackRock’s PFF, InfraCap’s PFFA, and VanEck’s PFXF.
These are among the largest preferred stock ETFs globally—among them, BlackRock’s PFF is the largest preferred stock ETF worldwide.
PFF and PFXF are passive ETFs that automatically track their respective preferred stock indexes.
$PFF tracks ICE’s “Exchange-Traded Preferred Stock and Hybrid Securities Index,” which includes 462 preferred stocks. PFF holds STRC with a market value of $456 million, accounting for 3.47% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 5.12% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFXF tracks ICE’s “Non-Financial Preferred Stock Index,” which includes 121 preferred stocks. PFXF holds STRC with a market value of $205 million, accounting for 8.59% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 2.25% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFFA is an actively managed ETF, where the fund manager manually adjusts holdings (adds/reduces positions), including 196 preferred stocks. PFFA holds STRC with a market value of about $72.19 million, accounting for 2.98% of the entire ETF, and 0.79% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
ICE continues to include STRC in its preferred stock index. The managers of the active ETF choose to hold the most STRC, indicating that STRC’s risk is within an acceptable range and that the returns are somewhat attractive—showing a positive outlook on BTC’s future.
Trust @saylor. Trust the fund managers at ICE and InfraCap.
Semiconductors are uncertain—so I went ahead and bought the real U.S. STRC on Binance. I’ll wait for the price to return to around $100, and meanwhile receive dividends once every half month.
Verified
I thought that Micron—actually, the example was Hynix ADR—would see an inflow of U.S. capital, bringing a premium.
I also thought the semiconductor sector would collectively pull back.
I also thought Google’s earnings report would lead to a drop.
I even thought about how there wouldn’t be a new agreement between the U.S. and Iran, that fighting could reignite, and that oil prices would rise again.
But, to my surprise, I never expected that Trump would be adding tariffs again. This time, the reason he cited is based on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Trump’s claim is that these countries produce goods using forced labor.
In addition, the EU fined Google about $1 billion. Trump said the EU’s actions were discriminatory against U.S. companies, and threatened to impose additional tariffs on the EU.
So what exactly do the $SKHY and $GOOGL that I’m dealing with count as?
I also thought the semiconductor sector would collectively pull back.
I also thought Google’s earnings report would lead to a drop.
I even thought about how there wouldn’t be a new agreement between the U.S. and Iran, that fighting could reignite, and that oil prices would rise again.
But, to my surprise, I never expected that Trump would be adding tariffs again. This time, the reason he cited is based on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Trump’s claim is that these countries produce goods using forced labor.
In addition, the EU fined Google about $1 billion. Trump said the EU’s actions were discriminatory against U.S. companies, and threatened to impose additional tariffs on the EU.
So what exactly do the $SKHY and $GOOGL that I’m dealing with count as?
Partly True
Hynix keeps buying while prices keep falling...😭 I’ll still buy some STRC!
In these three preferred stock ETFs, $STRC has become the highest-weighting holding:
BlackRock’s PFF, InfraCap’s PFFA, and VanEck’s PFXF.
These are among the largest preferred stock ETFs globally—among them, BlackRock’s PFF is the largest preferred stock ETF worldwide.
PFF and PFXF are passive ETFs that automatically track their respective preferred stock indexes.
$PFF tracks ICE’s “Exchange-Traded Preferred Stock and Hybrid Securities Index,” which includes 462 preferred stocks. PFF holds STRC with a market value of $456 million, accounting for 3.47% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 5.12% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFXF tracks ICE’s “Non-Financial Preferred Stock Index,” which includes 121 preferred stocks. PFXF holds STRC with a market value of $205 million, accounting for 8.59% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 2.25% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFFA is an actively managed ETF, where the fund manager manually adjusts holdings (adds/reduces positions), including 196 preferred stocks. PFFA holds STRC with a market value of about $72.19 million, accounting for 2.98% of the entire ETF, and 0.79% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
ICE continues to include STRC in its preferred stock index. The managers of the active ETF choose to hold the most STRC, indicating that STRC’s risk is within an acceptable range and that the returns are somewhat attractive—showing a positive outlook on BTC’s future.
Trust @saylor. Trust the fund managers at ICE and InfraCap.
Semiconductors are uncertain—so I went ahead and bought the real U.S. STRC on Binance. I’ll wait for the price to return to around $100, and meanwhile receive dividends once every half month.
In these three preferred stock ETFs, $STRC has become the highest-weighting holding:
BlackRock’s PFF, InfraCap’s PFFA, and VanEck’s PFXF.
These are among the largest preferred stock ETFs globally—among them, BlackRock’s PFF is the largest preferred stock ETF worldwide.
PFF and PFXF are passive ETFs that automatically track their respective preferred stock indexes.
$PFF tracks ICE’s “Exchange-Traded Preferred Stock and Hybrid Securities Index,” which includes 462 preferred stocks. PFF holds STRC with a market value of $456 million, accounting for 3.47% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 5.12% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFXF tracks ICE’s “Non-Financial Preferred Stock Index,” which includes 121 preferred stocks. PFXF holds STRC with a market value of $205 million, accounting for 8.59% of the ETF’s total net asset value, and 2.25% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
$PFFA is an actively managed ETF, where the fund manager manually adjusts holdings (adds/reduces positions), including 196 preferred stocks. PFFA holds STRC with a market value of about $72.19 million, accounting for 2.98% of the entire ETF, and 0.79% of STRC’s total outstanding amount.
ICE continues to include STRC in its preferred stock index. The managers of the active ETF choose to hold the most STRC, indicating that STRC’s risk is within an acceptable range and that the returns are somewhat attractive—showing a positive outlook on BTC’s future.
Trust @saylor. Trust the fund managers at ICE and InfraCap.
Semiconductors are uncertain—so I went ahead and bought the real U.S. STRC on Binance. I’ll wait for the price to return to around $100, and meanwhile receive dividends once every half month.
Log in to explore more content